2021.07.28 國際新聞導讀-突尼西亞總統發佈緊急命令解散國會與內閣，接管國家、黎巴嫩新總理米卡地是否能拯救黎巴嫩？伊朗也推動促進出生率與結婚率的手機APP

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.07.28 國際新聞導讀-突尼西亞總統發佈緊急命令解散國會與內閣，接管國家、黎巴嫩新總理米卡地是否能拯救黎巴嫩？伊朗也推動促進出生率與結婚率的手機APP

隨著總統解散政府，突尼斯處於崩潰的邊緣

突尼斯總統凱斯賽義德說：“我們已經做出這些決定……直到突尼斯恢復社會和平，直到我們拯救國家為止，”並承諾這些只是“臨時措施”。

作者：勞倫摩根貝瑟

2021 年 7 月 27 日 14:38

突尼斯總統凱斯·賽義德在突尼斯首都突尼斯外的迦太基宮舉行的政府宣誓就職儀式上發表講話，突尼斯，2020 年 2 月 27 日

（照片來源：FETHI BELAID/POOL VIA REUTERS）

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在經歷了十年艱難的穩定之後，突尼斯這個阿拉伯之春唯一的成功故事已經接近崩潰的邊緣。在周日晚上的公告中，突尼斯總統凱斯·賽義德 (Kais Saied) 推翻了政府，並將議會的活動凍結了 30 天。

賽義德在電視講話中說：“我們已經做出這些決定……直到突尼斯恢復社會和平，直到我們拯救國家為止，”並承諾這些只是“臨時措施”。

在周一晚上的總統令中，賽義德加大了權力攫取力度，宣布從晚上 7 點到早上 6 點實行為期一個月的宵禁，並禁止在公共場所舉行三人以上的聚會。

賽義德的反對者很快將此舉稱為政變，是對該國脆弱民主的攻擊。突尼斯最大的政黨、溫和的伊斯蘭復興黨領袖兼議會議長 Rached Ghannouchi 說：“今天，我們目睹了憲法所涵蓋的政變企圖。憲法中沒有任何規定允許總統解散議會或行政部門。即使在緊急狀態下，議會也必須繼續開會。”

為了反對賽義德的舉動，Ghannouchi 與 Ennahda 的其他成員一起，試圖在周一進入議會召集反對這一舉動的會議。作為回應，駐紮在外面的軍隊阻止了他進入大樓。

賽義德在周日晚上的聲明中表示，他正在援引憲法第 80 條，該條允許總統“在迫在眉睫的危險情況下採取特殊措施”。

第 80 條規定，在援引任何緊急權力之前，必須諮詢議會議長和總理。然而，加努奇說，他沒有以議長身份徵求過他的意見。

根據該國 2014 年憲法，此舉的合法性應由該國憲法法院決定——但由於其成員的內部爭議，授權法院仍未成立。

被罷免的總理希赫姆·梅奇奇週一晚間發表聲明，在宣布奪權幾乎一天后，他說他將把權力交給總統選定的人。

“因此，在這個國家最需要聯手擺脫危機情況的時候，迫切需要避免[有]進一步的擁堵……我宣布我正在排隊正如我一直[做]與我們的人民和他們的權利並宣布我在該州不擔任任何職位或責任一樣，”Mechichi 說。

突尼斯是十年前阿拉伯之春唯一的成功故事。該國在 Mohamed Bouazizi 於 2010 年底自焚後發起了這場運動，並於 2011 年罷免了總統 Zine El Abidine Ben Ali。從那時起，該國一直處於搖搖欲墜但相對穩定的民主制度下。最近的政府是在 2019 年的全民投票中選出的。

然而，這個非洲最北端的國家最近捲入了由大流行和經濟困境引起的問題。今年夏天，COVID 發病率飆升，這是自大流行開始以來最嚴重的一次。根據衛生部的數據，只有 7% 的人口接種了全面疫苗，但 90% 以上的 ICU 床位都被佔用。大流行也影響了經濟，失業率和腐敗現像不斷上升。

作為對賽義德週一晚間宣布的回應，全國各地城市的街道上擠滿了人群。人們無視冠狀病毒的宵禁，可以看到人們在街上歡呼、按喇叭並在令人回憶起 2011 年革命的場景中燃放煙花。

賽義德警告不要採取暴力回應，他說：“我警告任何想到使用武器的人……無論誰開槍，武裝部隊都會用子彈回應。”

半島電視台在推特上說，他們在首都的辦公室遭到襲擊，安全部隊驅逐了他們的記者。卡塔爾通訊社在一份聲明中表示，它認為這次突襲是“對新聞自由的攻擊”。

國際社會的反應是沉默和謹慎的。美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯週一在推特上表示，他與賽義德進行了“良好的通話”，國務院副發言人內德·普萊斯在一份新聞聲明中表示，美國“正在密切關注突尼斯的事態發展”。

“突尼斯絕不能浪費其民主成果。美國將繼續站在突尼斯民主的一邊，”聲明說。

聯合國的回應同樣謹慎，聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·蓋特雷斯的發言人呼籲各方“保持克制，避免暴力，確保局勢保持平靜”。

只有土耳其發表了譴責，總統雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安（Recep Tayyip Erdoğan）所在政黨的發言人厄梅爾·切利克（Ömer Çelik）在推特上說：“那些對兄弟的突尼斯人民做這種惡行的人正在傷害自己的國家。突尼斯人民有機會和經驗以團結和團結克服當前的危機。這只有在立即恢復憲法秩序的情況下才有可能。”

Tunisia on the brink of collapse as president dissolves government

“We have taken these decisions… until social peace returns to Tunisia and until we save the state,” Tunisian President Kais Saied said, promising that these were only “temporary measures.”

By LAUREN MORGANBESSER

JULY 27, 2021 14:38

Tunisia's President Kais Saied gives a speech at the government's swearing-in ceremony at the Carthage Palace outside the capital Tunis, Tunisia February 27, 2020

(photo credit: FETHI BELAID/POOL VIA REUTERS)

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After a decade of rocky stability, Tunisia, the Arab Spring’s lone success story, is nearing the brink of collapse. In an announcement Sunday night, Tunisian President Kais Saied ousted the government and froze the activities of parliament for thirty days.

“We have taken these decisions… until social peace returns to Tunisia and until we save the state,” Saied said in a televised speech, promising that these were only “temporary measures.”

In a Monday night presidential order, Saied doubled down on his power grab, announcing a month-long curfew from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m. and a ban on gatherings of more than three people in public places.

Saied’s opponents quickly labeled the move as a coup and an assault on the country’s fragile democracy. Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia’s biggest political party the moderate Islamist Ennahda and parliament speaker, spoke out: “Today we are witnessing a coup attempt covered with the constitution. Nothing in the constitution allows the president to dissolve the parliament or the executive. Even under a state of emergency, the parliament has to remain in session.”

To oppose Saied’s move, Ghannouchi, along with other members of Ennahda, tried to get into parliament Monday to call a session against the move. In response, the army that was stationed outside blocked him from entering the building.

In his statement Sunday night, Saied said he was invoking Article 80 of the constitution, which allows the president to take “exceptional measures in the event of imminent danger.”

Article 80 says that the parliament speaker and prime minister must be consulted before any emergency powers are invoked. However, Ghannouchi said he was not consulted in his capacity as speaker of parliament.

According to the country’s 2014 constitution, the legality of the move should be decided by the country’s constitutional court – but the mandated court has still not been formed due to internal disputes regarding its members.

Ousted Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi issued a statement late Monday night, almost a day after the power grab was announced, saying that he would hand power to the person chosen by the president.

“Therefore, in a sense of keenness to avoid the country [having] further congestion at a time when it most needs to join forces to get out of the crisis situation it lives [with] on all levels… I declare that I am lining up as I have always been [doing] alongside our people and their entitlements and declaring that I do not hold any position or responsibility in the state,” Mechichi said.

TUNISIA STANDS as the lone success story of the Arab Spring a decade ago. The country inaugurated the movement after the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in late 2010, and ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Since then, the country has existed under a shaky but relatively stable democracy. The most recent government was elected in a popular vote in 2019.

However, the northernmost African country has recently been embroiled with problems caused by the pandemic and economic woes. COVID rates have skyrocketed this summer, the worst since the pandemic began. According to health ministry figures, only 7% of the population is fully vaccinated, but more than 90% of ICU beds are occupied. The pandemic has also impacted the economy, with burgeoning rates of unemployment and perceived corruption.

In response to Saied’s announcement Monday night, crowds of people flooded the streets in cities around the country. Defying the coronavirus curfew, people could be seen cheering in the street, honking horns and setting off fireworks in scenes that recalled the 2011 revolution.

Saied warned against violent response, saying that “I warn any who think of resorting to weapons… and whoever shoots a bullet, the armed forces will respond with bullets.”

Al Jazeera tweeted that their offices were stormed in the capital, with security forces expelling their journalists. In a statement, the Qatari news agency said it views the raid as “an attack on press freedom.”

The response from the international community has been muted and cautious. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted Monday that he had a “good phone call” with Saied, and State Department deputy spokesperson Ned Price said in a press statement that the US is “closely monitoring developments in Tunisia.”

“Tunisia must not squander its democratic gains. The United States will continue to stand on the side of Tunisia’s democracy,” the statement said.

The UN’s response was similarly cautious, with a spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guetteres calling on all parties “to exercise restraint, refrain from violence and ensure that the situation remains calm.”

Only Turkey issued a condemnation, with Ömer Çelik, the spokesperson for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party, tweeting that “Those who do this evil to the brotherly Tunisian people are harming their own country. Tunisian people have the opportunity and experience to overcome the current crisis in unity and solidarity. This is only possible with an immediate return to the constitutional order.”

中國核電站將在法國關閉 - 共同擁有者

該聲明是在 EDF 警告台山核電站“迫在眉睫的放射性威脅”之後一個月發布的。

通過TZVI JOFFRE

2021 年 7 月 27 日 09:36

2013 年 10 月 17 日，廣東省台山市，工人們（下）站在核反應堆前，台山核電站是在建的台山核電站的一部分。

（圖片來源：BOBBY YIP/路透社）

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中國台山核電站本應在法國關閉，這家幫助運營該核電站的法國公司週四宣布，一個月前，該公司警告該核電站存在“迫在眉睫的放射性威脅”。

台山核電站的共同所有者法國電力公司 (EDF) 於 6 月表示，1 號核反應堆出現惰性氣體積聚，並補充說這是“已知現象，研究並提供因為在反應堆操作程序中。”

美國有線電視新聞網當時報導說，反應堆正在洩漏裂變氣體，並補充說法國電力公司在一封信中警告說，中國安全部門已經提高了監管機構的“場外劑量限制”。

週四，EDF 在一份新聞稿中宣布，對現場燃料棒密封損失的分析表明情況正在“演變”。

該公司強調，在法國，它會關閉反應堆“以準確評估正在進行的情況並停止其開發”，儘管它沒有直接呼籲中國關閉台山工廠。新聞稿稱，台山的相關決定屬於台山核電合資公司（TNPJVC）。

EDF 擁有 TNPJVC 30% 的股份。其餘 70% 由中國廣核集團 (CGN) 持有。

儘管聲明如果該工廠在法國，它將關閉該工廠，但 EDF 補充說，泰山的放射化學參數仍低於該工廠實施的監管閾值，並表示這與國際慣例一致。

今年 6 月，CNN 報導稱，EDF 已致函美國能源部，警告稱中國安全部門正在提高廣東省工廠外輻射檢測的可接受限值，以避免將其關閉。

一位消息人士當時告訴新聞頻道，拜登政府認為該發電廠尚未處於“危機水平”。如果對中國公眾造成任何風險，美國將被要求根據當前與核事故有關的條約予以告知。

法國電力公司旗下的核反應堆公司法馬通與美國取得聯繫，以獲得豁免，讓他們分享美國的技術援助以解決問題。豁免只能出於兩個原因，其中之一是“迫在眉睫的放射性威脅”。

中國否認台山工廠存在洩漏或提高了輻射檢測的可接受限度。中國國家原子能機構（CAEA）報告稱，持續的環境輻射監測證實沒有輻射釋放，也沒有環境問題。

國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 在 6 月份報告稱，CAEA 已更新稱，該工廠處於“正常狀態，運行安全得到保證”。CAEA 補充說，該反應堆發生了“輕微的燃料棒包殼故障”，導致該裝置主反應堆冷卻劑中的放射性增加，並稱這是該工廠的“普遍現象”。

國際原子能機構解釋說，雖然此類故障導致反應堆冷卻劑的放射性增加，但只要水平保持在正常運行範圍內，反應堆就可以繼續安全運行。據該機構稱，此類故障是“已知且並不少見的事件”。

圍繞泰山工廠的擔憂已經不是第一次出現了。

據自由亞洲電台報導，法國電力公司在 2016 年警告說，在測試由法國核公司阿海琺設計的歐洲加壓反應堆 (EPR) 期間出現了設計缺陷，這些反應堆在台山工廠使用。據自由亞洲電台稱，台山儲存的放射性核燃料量是日本福島核電站儲存量的三倍。

工程師兼可持續發展活動家 Albert Lai 在 2016 年告訴自由亞洲電台：“存在太多信任問題，很多人現在認為這座核電站的質量控制低於標準。而且，問題更加嚴重。”比我們想像的要好。”

其他國家/地區的 EPR 由於一系列缺陷而遭受多次延誤，包括擔心它們可能在操作過程中破裂。

台山EPR是第一個進入商業運營的。然而，根據香港自由新聞社 2018 年的一份報告，就在它投入運行前一周，中國國家核安全局 (NNSA) 確定了該反應堆的“六大問題”。

據新聞網站報導，在反應堆開始運行之前，還報告了許多其他問題，國家核安全局指出台山有 20 個需要改進的地方，包括由於焊接缺陷而需要經常維修的管道。

耶路撒冷郵政工作人員為本報告做出了貢獻。

Chinese nuclear power plant would have been shut down in France - co-owner

The statement comes a month after EDF warned of an "imminent radiological threat" at the Taishan nuclear power plant.

By TZVI JOFFRE

JULY 27, 2021 09:36

Workers (bottom) stand in front of a nuclear reactor as part of the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant seen under construction in Taishan, Guangdong province, October 17, 2013.

(photo credit: BOBBY YIP/ REUTERS)

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China's Taishan nuclear power plant would have already been shut down in France, the French company that helps operate it announced on Thursday, a month after it warned of an "imminent radiological threat" at the site.

Électricité de France (EDF), which is a co-owner of the Taishan plant, stated in June that there was a build-up of noble gases at nuclear reactor No. 1, adding that it was a "known phenomenon, studied and provided for in the reactor operating procedures."

CNN reported at the time that the reactor is leaking fission gas, adding that EDF had warned in a letter that the Chinese safety authority has raised regulator "off-site dose limits."

On Thursday, EDF announced in a press release that analysis of the loss of fuel rod sealing at the site indicates that the situation is "evolving."

The company stressed that, in France, it would have shut down the reactor "in order to accurately assess the situation in progress and stop its development," although it did not directly call on China to shut down the Taishan plant. The press release stated that the relevant decisions at Taishan belong to Taishan Nuclear Power Joint Venture Co. (TNPJVC).

EDF owns 30% of TNPJVC. The other 70% is owned by China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN).

Despite the statement that it would have shut down the plant if it was in France, EDF added that the radiochemical parameters at Taishan are still below regulatory thresholds in force at the plant, which it said are consistent with international practices.

In June, CNN reported that EDF had sent a letter to the US Department of Energy warning that the Chinese safety authority was raising the acceptable limits for radiation detection outside the plant in Guangdong province in order to avoid shutting it down.

A source told the news channel at the time that the Biden administration believes the power plant is not yet at a "crisis level." If there is any risk to the Chinese public, the US would be required to make it known under current treaties related to nuclear accidents.

Framatome, a nuclear reactor company owned by EDF, reached out to the US in order to obtain a waiver that would let them share American technical assistance in order to resolve the issue. The waiver can only be granted for two reasons, one of which is an "imminent radiological threat."

China has denied that there is a leak at the Taishan plant or that it has raised the acceptable limits for radiation detection. China's Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA) has reported that continuous environmental radiation monitoring confirmed that there has been no radiation release and there is no environmental concern.

THE INTERNATIONAL Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in June that CAEA had updated it that the plant was in "normal condition and that operational safety is guaranteed." The CAEA added that the reactor had experienced a "minor fuel rod cladding failure" which caused increased radioactivity in the unit's primary reactor coolant, saying that this is a "common phenomenon" at the plant.

The IAEA explained that while such failures result in an increase in radioactivity of reactor coolant, the reactor can continue to operate safely as long as levels remain within the normal range of operation. Such failures are a "known and not uncommon occurrence," according to the agency.

This isn't the first time that concerns surrounding the Taishan plant have been raised.

EDF warned in 2016 that design flaws emerged during testing of the European pressurized reactors (EPR) designed by French nuclear firm Areva, which are used at the Taishan plant, according to Radio Free Asia. The amount of radioactive nuclear fuel stored at Taishan is three times of what was stored at the Fukushima plant in Japan, according to RFA.

"There have been so many trust issues, that a lot of people now believe that quality control at this nuclear power plant is below standard," engineer and sustainability campaigner Albert Lai told RFA in 2016. "What's more, the problems are much more serious than we thought they were."

EPRs in other countries have suffered from numerous delays due to a slew of defects, including concerns that they could crack during operation.

The EPR at Taishan was the first one to enter commercial operation. Just a week before it entered operation, however, China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) identified "six major issues" in the reactor, according to a report by the Hong Kong Free Press in 2018.

A number of other issues were reported with the reactor before it began operation, with the NNSA pointing to 20 areas for improvement at Taishan, including pipelines that required frequent repairs due to welding defects, according to the news website.

Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

隨著黎巴嫩的崩潰，真主黨成員享受奢華的婚禮

儘管黎巴嫩大部分地區面臨著該國經濟危機的極端情況，但社交媒體用戶對發生的奢華事件表示憤慨。

通過TZVI JOFFRE

2021 年 7 月 27 日 22:17

黎巴嫩貝魯特的Raouche Rocks附近，一對夫婦準備為他們的婚紗照擺姿勢

（圖片來源：路透社/漢娜麥凱）

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最近幾天，在兩名真主黨附屬政客的女兒奢華婚禮的照片和視頻在社交媒體上洩露後，黎巴嫩公民表達了憤怒，顯示政客們在慶祝的同時，黎巴嫩大部分地區正遭受經濟危機惡化的影響。

視頻顯示，自由愛國運動議員 Ibrahim Kanaan 和前真主黨議員 Nawwar Al-Sahili 帶著他們衣著奢華的女兒走在過道上，狂歡者享用酒精飲料和豪華餐點，包括鮭魚和松露。

FPM 是一個與真主黨結盟的基督教政黨，米歇爾·奧恩總統是其創始成員之一。

儘管黎巴嫩大部分地區面臨著日益惡化的經濟危機的極端條件，但社交媒體用戶對發生的奢華事件表示憤慨，許多人嘲笑真主黨領導人哈桑納斯魯拉通過引用他過去呼籲他的支持者耐心和犧牲的聲明.

“這些是我們的代表和部長的孩子。至於我們的兒子，他們從他們的國家移民出來，以尋求他們在他們的國家被剝奪的生計和尊嚴，”黎巴嫩歌手 Amal Hijazi 在 Twitter 上回應婚禮時寫道。“祝賀真主黨副手 Nawar Al-Sahili 的女兒。”

“前真主黨副手 Nawar al-Sahili 在 2018 年任期結束時告訴 [真主黨附屬電視台] Al-Manar，他將繼續在真主黨工作，並希望成為一個‘簡單的聖戰者（聖戰者）’在聖戰者的道路上，”黎巴嫩記者 Diana Moukalled 在推特上寫道。“而今天，納斯魯拉為克服崩潰而發明的‘耐心和洞察力’之路最終以他女兒的傳奇婚禮而告終。”

一些社交媒體用戶表達了對 Sahili 的支持，強調他沒有為婚禮買單，如果可以的話，他女兒有權擁有一個愉快的婚禮。

騷亂後，薩希利在推特上發表道歉，稱他“沒有意識到這會造成傷害”以及對真主黨的“無意冒犯”，並補充說他將暫停他在黨內的所有活動，直到真主黨領導層就這個問題作出決定。

隨著該國危機的加深，許多黎巴嫩公民正在努力維持生計。電網等基本服務正在迅速崩潰，聯合國兒童基金會（UNICEF）週五警告稱，該國大部分抽水活動可能會在未來四到六週內停止。

據阿拉伯新聞報導，根據危機觀察站最近的一份報告，基本食品的價格在不到一個月的時間裡上漲了一半以上，自 2019 年以來上漲了 700% 以上，服裝已成為一種奢侈品。報告稱，截至 7 月上半月，一個五口之家每月在食品上的支出超過 350 萬黎巴嫩鎊（2,300 美元）。這大約是最低工資的五倍，即 675,000 英鎊（450 美元）。

As Lebanon collapses, Hezbollah members enjoy extravagant weddings

Social media users expressed outrage at the lavish events that took place despite the extreme conditions much of Lebanon is facing as part of the country's economic crisis.

By TZVI JOFFRE

JULY 27, 2021 22:17

A couple prepares to pose for their wedding photos, near the Raouche Rocks in Beirut, Lebanon

(photo credit: REUTERS/HANNAH MCKAY)

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Lebanese citizens expressed outrage in recent days after pictures and video from the lavish weddings of the daughters of two Hezbollah-affiliated politicians were leaked on social media, showing the politicians celebrating in style while most of Lebanon is suffering the effects of a worsening economic crisis.

Video showed Free Patriotic Movement MP Ibrahim Kanaan and former Hezbollah MP Nawwar Al-Sahili walking their extravagantly dressed daughters down the aisle and revelers enjoying alcoholic beverages and luxurious meals, including salmon and truffles.

The FPM, of which President Michel Aoun is a founding member, is a Christian party allied with Hezbollah.

Social media users expressed outrage at the lavish events that took place despite the extreme conditions much of Lebanon is facing as part of its worsening economic crisis, with many mocking Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by referencing his past statements calling on his supporters to be patient and sacrifice.

"These are the children of our representatives and ministers. As for our sons, they emigrated from their country in pursuit of a livelihood and dignity that they were denied in their country," wrote Lebanese singer Amal Hijazi on Twitter in response to the wedding. "Congratulations to the daughter of the Hezbollah deputy Nawar Al-Sahili."

"Former Hezbollah deputy Nawar al-Sahili, at the end of his term in 2018, told [the Hezbollah-affiliated television station] Al-Manar that he would continue his work in Hezbollah and hoped to be a 'simple mujahid (jihadist)' in the mujahideen's path," wrote Lebanese journalist Diana Moukalled on Twitter. "And today, the path of 'patience and insight' that Nasrallah invented to overcome the collapse culminates with a legendary wedding for his daughter."

Some social media users expressed support for Sahili, stressing that he didn't pay for the wedding and that it was his daughter's right to have an enjoyable wedding if she could.

Sahili published an apology on Twitter after the uproar, saying that he "did not realize that it would cause harm" and for the "unintended offense" to the Hezbollah Party, adding that he would be suspending all of his activity in the party until the Hezbollah leadership makes a decision concerning the issue.

Many Lebanese citizens are struggling to make ends meet as the crisis in the country deepens. Basic services, such as the power grid, are quickly collapsing, with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warning on Friday that most water pumping in the country will likely cease in the next four to six weeks.

The price of basic food items has increased by more than half in less than a month and over 700% since 2019, and clothing has become a luxury, according to a recent report by the Crisis Observatory, Arab News reported. A family of five was spending over 3.5 million Lebanese pounds ($2,300) on food per month as of the first half of July, according to the report. That's about five times the minimum wage, which stands at 675,000 pounds ($450).

新任總理對黎巴嫩意味著什麼？- 分析

米卡蒂是黎巴嫩首富，曾兩次出任總理，但現在他面臨著兩項棘手的任務：阻止政治僵局和解決災難性的經濟形勢。

作者：勞倫摩根貝瑟

2021 年 7 月 27 日 18:02

2021 年 7 月 26 日，領先的商人納吉布·米卡蒂 (Najib Mikati) 在黎巴嫩巴卜達的總統府做手勢。

（照片來源：穆罕默德·阿扎基爾/路透社）

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在看守總理薩阿德·哈里裡 (Saad Hariri) 辭職後，政治自由落體近兩週後，黎巴嫩議會周一指定納吉布·米卡蒂( Najib Mikati)組建政府。

這位億萬富翁將成為自一年前貝魯特港爆炸造成 200 多人死亡並迫使哈桑·迪亞布辭職以來第三位嘗試這項工作的政治家。

米卡蒂是黎巴嫩首富，曾兩次擔任總理，現在面臨著幾乎不可能的組建政府的任務。他於週二開始與政黨協商，在哈里裡在 10 個月後放棄後，開始了一項沒有憲法截止日期的任務。

然而，Mikati 面臨著兩個棘手的任務：阻止政治僵局和解決災難性的經濟形勢。

第一個任務在於混亂的政治局勢。政黨之間存在嚴重分歧，尤其是在宗教方面。政府結構本身加劇了這種不團結，因為職位是根據宗教信仰分配的。根據國家契約，國家總統必須是馬龍派基督徒，總理必須是遜尼派，議會議長必須是什葉派。

真主黨使情況進一步複雜化。伊朗支持的什葉派既是主要政黨，又是該國政治重量級的激進組織，享有“國中之國”的美譽。其在整個地區的軍事冒險精神及其重要的政治權力使其支持成為該國任何重大決策的組成部分。

將這些不同的派系合併為一個政府是不小的挑戰，而 Mikati 的繼任者發現這是不可能的。

米卡蒂的第二個任務在於經濟形勢。自 2019 年底以來，該國經歷了金融危機。世界銀行將該國的局勢描述為 19 世紀中葉以來世界上最嚴重的危機之一。

黎巴嫩的貨幣貶值了 90% 以上，一半的人口生活在貧困線以下。該國面臨嚴重的燃料短缺以及食品、水和藥品短缺。

反對政府的抗議似乎是該國幾乎永久性的特徵，包括因短缺而在加油站和雜貨店發生騷亂。

為了獲得急需的國際援助，Mikati 需要改革其經濟和政治格局。國際社會已向黎巴嫩發出信號，援助的條件是改革以打擊猖獗的腐敗和管理不善。

米卡蒂的部分責任還在於恢復與國際貨幣基金組織就緊急貸款進行談判，這需要組建政府。

Mikati 是能夠緩解僵局的共識候選人嗎？或者，正如他的批評者所宣稱的那樣，他只是盲目無能的政治精英的延伸？

對 Mikati 的樂觀在於他的經歷。在薩阿德·哈里裡 (Saad Hariri) 的父親拉菲克·哈里裡 (Rafik Hariri) 被暗殺後，他曾於 2005 年擔任看守總理，並於 2011 年和 2013 年至 2014 年擔任總理。他的整個政治生涯還曾在三個不同的內閣任職。

週一，米卡蒂在議會的 118 票中獲得了 72 票，以擔任該職位。他得到了真主黨的提名和哈里裡的支持，得到了該國許多團體的支持。

真主黨議會集團的領導人穆罕默德·拉德告訴記者：“今天，有跡象表明有可能組建政府……我們任命米卡蒂是為了進一步推動組建政府。”

然而，並非所有議會派係都支持米卡蒂。重要的是，他面臨兩大基督教政黨的反對，包括米歇爾·奧恩總統的政黨自由愛國運動。

與基督徒的積極關係，尤其是與奧恩的關係，可以成就或破壞新政府。在與奧恩爭奪內閣職位並最終陷入僵局後，哈里裡未能完成組建政府的任務。為了成功，米卡蒂需要獲得奧恩的青睞，或者至少說服他放下疑慮，推動國家向前發展。

米卡蒂的權力提升遭到了反對者的懷疑。批評者說他屬於無能的政治階層。2019 年底，黎巴嫩公民指控他在國家補貼住房貸款上非法牟取暴利，但他否認了這一指控。然而，週一晚上，他的房子被抗議者包圍，指責他腐敗。

黎巴嫩的未來仍然不確定，尤其是在米卡蒂掌舵的情況下。要想取得成功，他必須克服政治和經濟上的重大障礙，將一個嚴重分裂和受傷害的國家團結在一起。他還必須證明批評者是錯誤的，表明他的政治經驗將為人民服務，而不是進一步根深蒂固的低效率和腐敗。

米卡蒂的挑戰顯而易見，但他必須與其他政客站在一起，為黎巴嫩人民開創一個新的未來。

What does the new prime minister designate mean for Lebanon? – analysis

Mikati is Lebanon's richest man and was prime minister twice before, but now he faces two troublesome tasks: stymying political gridlock and fixing the disastrous economic situation.

By LAUREN MORGANBESSER

JULY 27, 2021 18:02

Leading businessman Najib Mikati gestures at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon July 26, 2021.

(photo credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

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After almost two weeks of political free fall following the resignation of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the Lebanese parliament on Monday designated Najib Mikati to form a government.

The billionaire will be the third politician to attempt the job since the explosion at the Port of Beirut a year ago that killed more than 200 people and forced the resignation of Hassan Diab.

Mikati, who is Lebanon’s richest man and formerly the prime minister twice, is now faced with the near-impossible task of forming a government. He began consultations with political parties on Tuesday, setting off on a task with no constitutional deadline after Hariri gave up after 10 months.

However, Mikati faces two troublesome tasks: stymieing political gridlock and fixing the disastrous economic situation.

The first task lies in the chaotic political situation. Political parties are deeply divided, especially along religious lines. The structure of the government itself intensifies this disunity, as positions are allocated by religious affiliation. Under the National Pact, the president of the country must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister must be Sunni, and the speaker of parliament must be Shi’ite.

Hezbollah further complicates the situation. The Iranian-backed Shi’ite group is both a major political party and militant group that is a political heavyweight in the country, earning it the reputation of being a “state within a state.” Its military adventurism across the region and its significant political power makes its support integral to any major decisions in the country.

Bringing together these different factions into one government is no small challenge, and Mikati’s successors have found it to be impossible.

Mikati’s second task lies in the economic situation. Since late 2019, the country has experienced a financial meltdown. The World Bank has described the situation in the country as one of the world’s worst crises since the mid-19th century.

Lebanon’s currency has lost more than 90% of its value, and half of the population is living below the poverty line. The country suffers from severe fuel shortages, as well as food, water and medicine scarcities.

Protests against the government appear to be near-permanent features in the country, including riots at gas stations and grocery stores in response to shortages.

To unlock much-needed international aid, Mikati needs to reform both its economic and political landscapes. The international community has signaled to Lebanon that aid is conditional on reforms that fight rampant corruption and mismanagement.

Part of Mikati’s charge also lies in resumption of talks with the International Monetary Fund for an emergency loan, which requires formation of a government.

Is Mikati a consensus candidate capable of easing deadlock? Or, as his critics proclaim, is he just an extension of the blinded and inept political elite?

Optimism toward Mikati lies in his experience. He previously served as caretaker prime minister in 2005 after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, Saad Hariri’s father, as well as prime minister in 2011 and from 2013 to 2014. He has also served in three different cabinets throughout his political career.

On Monday, Mikati received 72 votes out of 118 in parliament to assume the position. He was nominated by Hezbollah and endorsed by Hariri, garnering support from many groups in the country.

“Today, with signs that hint at the possibility of forming a government… we named Mikati to give an extra boost to facilitate forming a government,” the leader of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, told reporters.

However, Mikati was not supported by all parliamentary factions. Importantly, he faced opposition from the two major Christian political parties, including the Free Patriotic Movement, President Michel Aoun’s party.

A positive relationship with the Christians, especially with Aoun, could make or break a new government. Hariri failed his mandate to form a government after a struggle with Aoun over cabinet positions that eventually reached a deadlock. To succeed, Mikati will need to gain the favor of Aoun, or at least convince him to put aside misgivings to move the country forward.

Mikati’s ascension to power was met by skepticism by opponents. Critics say he is part of the incompetent political class. In late 2019, Lebanese citizens brought charges against him for illicit profiteering on state-subsidized housing loans, an allegation he denied. However, on Monday evening, his house was surrounded by protesters accusing him of corruption.

The future of Lebanon remains uncertain, especially with Mikati at the helm. For him to be successful, he must overcome significant barriers both politically and economically and bring together a deeply fractured and hurting country. He must also prove critics wrong, showing that his political experience will serve the people instead of further entrenching inefficiencies and corruption.

Mikati’s challenges are clear, but he must stand apart from other politicians to usher in a new future for the sake of the Lebanese people.

約旦挫敗殺害以色列國防軍士兵的陰謀 - 報告

四名 ISIS 恐怖分子於 2 月因計劃在 Ghor es-Safi 地區發生的襲擊而被捕。

由哈利·阿布·托梅

2021 年 7 月 27 日 16:50

10 月 22 日，從以色列一側看到，一名以色列國防軍士兵在 Naharayim 的以色列和約旦邊境地區巡邏。

（圖片來源：RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS）

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約旦報紙 Al-Rai 週二報導稱，約旦挫敗了 ISIS（伊拉克和敘利亞伊斯蘭國）恐怖分子在以色列邊境附近殺害以色列國防軍士兵的企圖。

報告稱，四名恐怖分子於 2 月因計劃中的襲擊而被捕，襲擊本應發生在約旦河谷的 Ghor es-Safi 地區。

Ghor es-Safi 位於Karak 和Tafilah 省之間，靠近死海南部。

根據約旦檢察官準備的一份指控書，這四人被指控密謀實施恐怖襲擊和宣傳恐怖組織的意識形態。

約旦的情報總局在恐怖分子發動襲擊之前成功地將其下手。第一名嫌疑人於去年年底被捕。

報告稱，根據指控表，恐怖分子計劃首先襲擊與以色列接壤的約旦士兵，然後再襲擊以色列國防軍士兵並殺死他們。

Jordan foils plot to kill IDF soldiers - report

Four ISIS terrorists were arrested in February in connection with the planned attack, which was supposed to take place in the Ghor es-Safi area.

By KHALED ABU TOAMEH

JULY 27, 2021 16:50

AN IDF soldier patrols the border area between Israel and Jordan at Naharayim, as seen from the Israeli side on October 22.

(photo credit: RONEN ZVULUN/REUTERS)

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Jordan has thwarted an attempt by ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) terrorists to kill IDF soldiers near the border with Israel, the Jordanian newspaper Al-Rai reported Tuesday.

Four terrorists were arrested in February in connection with the planned attack, which was supposed to take place in the Ghor es-Safi area in the Jordan Valley, the report said.

Ghor es-Safi is situated between the governorates of Karak and Tafilah, near the southern Dead Sea.

The four have been charged with conspiring to carry out terrorist attacks and promoting the ideology of a terrorist group, according to a charge sheet prepared by Jordanian prosecutors.

Jordan’s General Intelligence Directorate succeeded in laying its hands on the terrorists before they carried out the attack. The first suspect was arrested late last year.

The terrorists planned to first attack Jordanian soldiers near the border with Israel before reaching IDF soldiers and killing them, according to the charge sheet, the report said.

伊朗的缺水抗議可能會給未來帶來麻煩-分析

全國各地的起義表明，表面下正在醞釀著更深層次的麻煩，這可能對政權構成威脅。

作者：丹尼爾·索南菲爾德/媒體熱線

2021 年 7 月 27 日 12:42

伊朗西南部胡齊斯坦省乾涸的卡爾赫河。

（照片來源：哈米德 MTASHER）

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抗議活動在伊朗西南部的胡齊斯坦省的街道上肆虐，該省是伊朗大多數阿拉伯阿瓦士少數民族的家園，過去曾發生過多次示威浪潮。7 月 15 日爆發了抗議活動，以應對嚴重缺水給該省居民帶來的痛苦。從那以後，示威活動蔓延到該地區以外，據報導，週一，人們在首都德黑蘭的街道上游行。

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Abdulrahman al-Heidari 是反對黨阿瓦士愛國阿拉伯民主運動的發言人，總部設在英國，但與胡齊斯坦省的人們保持密切和持續的聯繫，他將他們的名字更正為阿拉伯語“al-Ahwaz”在接受媒體專線採訪時。他告訴媒體專線，人們開始抗議是因為他們沒有足夠的水喝，也沒有足夠的水給他們的牲畜，但“水只是一個觸發因素……阿瓦茲人民長期以來一直受到伊朗政策的影響，因為超過九個十年。”

海達里解釋說，數十年來從胡齊斯坦調水已經影響了它的河流並縮小了沼澤地，這些沼澤地養活了數千人。這迫使農民放棄他們無法維持生計的村莊，遷移到城市。

“目前，al-Ahwaz 地區已經完全乾涸，甚至沒有足夠的水飲用，更不用說成千上萬的牲畜、鳥類和魚類死亡，以及導致乾涸的 Karkheh 河的排水。在哈維澤沼澤之上，”聯合國教科文組織世界遺產，Al-Ahwaz 自由黨創始人 Hamid Mtasher 告訴媒體專線。“今天，我們的人民依賴瓶裝水，許多村莊因乾旱而無人居住和遷移到城市。” Mtasher 說他的信息是基於與該地區內部消息來源的不斷溝通。他希望他的位置保持未公開。

伊朗當局以嚴厲的方式回應了抗議活動。國際特赦組織週五證實，實彈用於平息抗議活動。該組織在聲明中寫道：“伊朗安全部隊部署了非法武力，包括發射實彈和鳥彈，以鎮壓南部胡齊斯坦省發生的大部分和平抗議活動。” 當時，國際特赦組織證實，至少有八名示威者和旁觀者被殺。

總部設在英國的反對派阿瓦茲人權中心執行主任費薩爾·馬拉馬齊告訴媒體專線，“到目前為止，我們已經逮捕了 1,500 多人，我們有 150 多人受傷，……到目前為止，已有 14 多人死亡。 ” Maramazi 描述了大規模逮捕阿瓦茲阿拉伯人的現實，因為政府部隊“一家一家，一家一家”搬家。他說，這些鎮壓行動導致抗議活動相對放緩。

“我們要求國際社會採取行動，採取緊急行動支持無辜人民，他們需要得到支持。如果我們將他們留在那裡，置之不理，他們將被殺害，”海達里說。

聯合國人權事務高級專員米歇爾巴切萊特週五對事件做出回應，並呼籲德黑蘭解決水危機，而不是“使用過度武力和廣泛逮捕來鎮壓有關局勢的抗議活動”。

伊朗外交部發言人賽義德·哈蒂布扎德（Saeed Khatibzadeh）在推特上發文稱，“專員關於#huzestan 省最近發生的事件的聲明令人遺憾，稱其完全無效，並帶有虛假指控和不正確信息”。

伊朗伊斯蘭共和國的官方媒體在報導胡齊斯坦的事件時聲稱，只有四人在抗議活動中喪生，其中一名是警察。然而，該報告指責煽動者向人群和安全部隊開槍。

Maramazi 和 Heidari 都說，Ahwazi 阿拉伯人認為水危機是德黑蘭有意使阿拉伯少數民族流離失所的政策的結果。“阿瓦茲人認為，阿瓦茲的這場水危機是有意為之，目的是改變阿瓦茲的人口結構，將阿瓦茲人從胡齊斯坦和伊朗其他省份強行遷移到伊朗其他中心城市，”馬拉馬齊說。

活動人士說，包括流離失所、政府造成的貧困和失業在內的一長串不滿導致阿瓦茲人站起來，而嚴重的缺水只是最後一根稻草。

Ultimately, said Maramazi, "Ahwazis, they don’t see themselves as Iranian, they want their self-determination, and they want their independence from Iran." This goal was echoed by Mtasher, which said that the protests are – among other goals –intended to send this message to Iran: "We demand that they leave our lands and let us live in peace."

然而，特拉維夫大學國家安全研究所的伊朗專家Raz Zimmt 博士認為，種族分歧遠不是抗議活動的核心。“這些抗議活動的背景非常清楚缺水，”齊姆特告訴媒體專線。然而，他補充道，“胡齊斯坦省除了水、[問題] 貧困和經濟匱乏、失業和沙塵暴、電力供應問題之外，還有很多問題，所以很明顯你不能說他們走上街頭只是因為缺水，即使那是促使他們退出的催化劑。”

Zimmt 解釋說，整個伊朗都面臨著供水問題，但由於一些原因，胡齊斯坦是一個特例。首先，“它是伊朗最熱的地區，也是最容易發生乾旱的地區。” Zimmt 說，第二個原因是伊朗對水和農業的管理不善。“例如，過度築壩。多年來建造了許多大壩，這導致生態破壞和[水]短缺，”他說。此外，胡齊斯坦是一個盛產石油的地區，Zimmt 表示，石油工業是一個特別耗水的企業。所有人都聯合起來否認胡齊斯坦或 al-Ahwaz 的居民有穩定的水供應。

這位伊朗專家並不否認伊朗的少數民族——包括阿瓦茲阿拉伯人——受到歧視，但表示這與他們在該國周邊的地理位置有很大關係。列出伊朗的少數民族及其家園，這將是該國邊境省份的清單。然而，這並不意味著伊朗少數民族的分裂運動占主導地位。Zimmt 說，爭取阿瓦茲獨立的活動人士可能正在利用當前的危機來鞏固他們的地位，但他們並沒有反映當地的願望。

Heidari 同意抗議活動中的大部分口號都圍繞著水展開。然而，他指出，示威者用阿拉伯語表達了他們為 al-Ahwaz 獻出生命的意願。他表示，這表明願望比解決水危機更重要。

近年來，關於伊朗伊斯蘭政權及其生存的討論很多。數月來關於重返聯合全面行動計劃或伊朗與世界大國簽署的核協議的談判未能緩解對伊朗經濟實施的嚴厲制裁。然而，齊姆特強調，就目前的規模而言，抗議“肯定不會構成威脅”。他說：“這些都是相對較小的示威活動……政權不會處理這些問題。”

然而，全國各地的起義表明，表面下正在醞釀著更深層次的麻煩，這可能對政權構成威脅。示威活動最近每隔幾年就會震撼伊朗，Zimmt 說，“毫無疑問，這些抗議浪潮是由未滿足的需求引發的，無論是經濟需求，還是與基礎設施問題相關的需求。” 他解釋說，德黑蘭政權沒有辦法解決這些問題，“因為它們需要大量資源，而它們目前沒有，它們需要改革。”

由於這些問題目前無法解決，預計抗議會一次又一次地發生，結果不確定。

Iran's water shortage protests might pose future trouble - analysis

The uprising throughout the country is an indication of a deeper trouble brewing under the surface, which may yet pose a danger to the regime.

By DANIEL SONNENFELD/THE MEDIA LINE

JULY 27, 2021 12:42

The dried-up Karkheh River in the Khuzestan province in southwest Iran.

(photo credit: HAMID MTASHER)

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Protests are raging on the streets of Khuzestan, an Iranian province in the country's southwest, which is home to most of Iran’s Arab Ahwaz minority and has seen many waves of demonstrations in the past. Protests erupted on July 15 in response to a severe water shortage causing suffering for the province's residents. Since then, demonstrations have spread outside the region and, on Monday, people reportedly marched in the streets of the capital, Tehran.

For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org

Abdulrahman al-Heidari, spokesperson for the Patriotic Arab Democratic Movement in Ahwaz, an opposition party, is based in the United Kingdom but keeps in close and constant touch with people in Khuzestan province, whose name he corrects to the Arabic “al-Ahwaz” in an interview with The Media Line. People began to protest because they did not have enough water to drink, or to give to their livestock, he told The Media Line, but "water was just a trigger… Ahwazi people have been suffering from the Iranian policy for a long time, for longer than nine decades."

Heidari explains that decades of diverting water from Khuzestan has impacted its rivers and shrunk its marshlands, which fed thousands of people. This forced farmers to forsake their villages, where they could no longer sustain themselves, and migrate to the cities.

"At present, the al-Ahwaz region is completely dried up and there is not enough water for drinking even, not to mention the death of thousands of livestock animals, birds and fish, and the draining of the Karkheh River which led to the drying up of the Hawizeh marshes,” a UNESCO world heritage site, Hamid Mtasher, founder of the Al-Ahwaz Liberal Party, told The Media Line. "Today, our people depend on bottled water and many villages have become empty of residents due to drought and migration to the city." Mtasher said his information is based on constant communication with sources inside the region. He preferred that his location remain unpublished.

Iranian authorities responded to the protests with a heavy hand. Live ammunition was used in efforts to quell the protests, Amnesty International confirmed on Friday. "Iran’s security forces have deployed unlawful force, including by firing live ammunition and birdshot, to crush mostly peaceful protests taking place across the southern province of Khuzestan," the organization's statement read. At the time, Amnesty confirmed that at least eight demonstrators and bystanders had been killed.

Faisal Maramazi, executive director of the opposition Ahwazi Centre for Human Rights, based in the UK, told The Media Line that "so far we have more than 1,500 arrests, we have more than 150 injured and … more than 14 people dead so far." Maramazi described a reality of mass arrests of Ahwazi Arabs as government forces move "family by family, house by house." These repressive actions, he said, have caused a relative slowing down of the protests.

"We are asking the international community to take action, to take urgent action to support the innocent people, they need to be supported. If we leave them there, ignored, they will be killed," Heidari said.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet responded to the events on Friday, and called on Tehran to solve the water crisis, instead of "using excessive force and widespread arrests to crush the protests about the situation."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry's spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh "described the commissioner's statement on the recent events in #huzestan province as regrettable, saying it was totally invalid and tainted with false accusations and incorrect information," the Iranian Foreign Ministry tweeted.

The Islamic Republic's state media claimed that only four people were killed in the protests, one a police officer, when it reported on the events in Khuzestan. However, the report blamed agitators for shooting into the crowd and at security forces.

Both Maramazi and Heidari say that Ahwazi Arabs see the water crisis as a result of an intentional policy of Tehran intended to bring about the displacement of the Arab minority. "Ahwazis believe that this water crisis in al-Ahwaz is intentional, to change the demographic in al-Ahwaz, to forcibly migrate [the] Ahwazi people from Khuzestan and other provinces in Iran to other Iranian central cities," Maramazi said.

A long list of grievances, which include displacement, government-generated poverty and unemployment, have led the Ahwazis to rise up, say the activists, and the dire water shortage was just the last straw.

Ultimately, said Maramazi, "Ahwazis, they don’t see themselves as Iranian, they want their self-determination, and they want their independence from Iran." This goal was echoed by Mtasher, which said that the protests are – among other goals –intended to send this message to Iran: "We demand that they leave our lands and let us live in peace."

However, Dr. Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, believes that ethnic divides are far from central to the protests. "These protests have the water shortage very clearly as their background," Zimmt told The Media Line. However, he adds, "Khuzestan is a province with a lot of issues apart from water, [problems] of poverty and economic deprivation, of unemployment and sandstorms, problems with the electrical supply, so it is clear that you can't say that they took to the streets only because of the water shortage, even if that was the catalyst that drew them out."

Zimmt explains that Iran in its entirety is suffering from issues with the water supply, but that Khuzestan is a special case, for a few reasons. First, "it is the hottest area in Iran, and the one most prone to droughts." A second reason is the poor management of water and agriculture in Iran, Zimmt said. "For example, over-damming. Many dams were built over the years, and this leads to ecological damage and a [water] shortage," he said. In addition, Khuzestan is a region rich with oil, and Zimmt says that the oil industry is an especially water-thirsty enterprise. All have combined to deny the residents of Khuzestan, or al-Ahwaz, a stable supply of water.

The Iran expert doesn't deny that minorities in Iran – including the Ahwazi Arabs – suffer from discrimination but suggests that this has a lot to do with their geographical placement, on the country’s periphery. Make a list of Iran's minorities and their homelands and it will be a list of the country’s border provinces. However, this does not mean that separatist movements among Iran's minorities reign supreme. Activists for Ahwazi independence may be using the current crisis to further their position, but they do not reflect aspirations on the ground, Zimmt says.

Heidari agrees that much of the chanting in the protests revolves around water. However, he points to calls in Arabic in which demonstrators express their will to sacrifice their lives for the sake of al-Ahwaz. This indicates aspirations more significant than solving the water crisis, he suggests.

There has been much talk in recent years of the Islamic regime in Iran and its survival. Months of talks regarding a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal signed between Iran and the world powers, have failed to bring relief from crippling sanctions imposed on the Iranian economy. Zimmt, however, stresses that the protests "most certainly do not pose a threat," at their current scale. "These are relatively minor demonstrations … the regime will have no issues dealing with them," he said.

Yet, the uprising throughout the country is an indication of a deeper trouble brewing under the surface, which may yet pose a danger to the regime. Demonstrations have rocked Iran every few years recently and, Zimmt said, "without a doubt, these are protest waves fed by unmet needs, either economic, or relating to infrastructure issues." The regime in Tehran doesn't have a way to resolve these issues, he explains, "because they require a lot of resources, which they don't have at present, and they require reforms."

With these issues currently unresolvable, protests can be expected to occur again and again, with indeterminate results.

隨著生育率下降，伊朗推出婚介應用

該應用程序為準夫婦及其家人提供匹配和諮詢服務，並在婚後四年與他們保持聯繫。

通過路透社，TZVI JOFFRE

2021 年 7 月 27 日 11:57

伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊對嬰兒微笑

（圖片來源：KHAMEEI.IR）

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面對生育率下降，伊朗推出了國家批准的婚介應用程序，以促進伊斯蘭國家的婚姻，限制無關男女之間的接觸。

Hamdam (Companion) 由國家附屬的伊斯蘭文化機構開發，要求用戶驗證他們的身份，進行心理兼容性測試，並為尋求婚姻伴侶的年輕單身人士提供建議。

據半官方通訊社 Fars 報導，該應用程序為準夫婦及其家人提供匹配和諮詢服務，並在婚後四年與他們保持聯繫。

自該應用程序推出以來，約有 15 萬人安裝了它，但迄今為止只有 6,500 名用戶通過了驗證。

伊朗伊斯蘭法律禁止西式約會，但許多年輕人拒絕傳統的包辦婚姻，並想決定自己的未來。

該應用程序是對 2015 年推出的 Tebyan 婚介網站的更新。截至兩個月前，約有 87,000 人註冊到該系統，該​​網站成功安排了約 3,700 場婚姻。在網站上，申請人需要填寫註冊表，提供兩次心理測試和文件，並進行面對面的面試。該網站在兩個月前關閉，為推出 Hamdam 做準備。

應用程序主管 Zohreh Sadat Hosseini 告訴法爾斯通訊社，它的目標是“確保年輕人能夠在最短的時間內，以科學和有計劃的方式，在家人的支持和監督下，找到合適的伴侶。”

用戶填寫表格，進行兩次心理測試並附上他們的文件。Fars 表示，他們的個人資料隨後會發送給同行專家進行審批，他們也會核實申請人的信息。一旦用戶通過驗證，系統將開始建議可能的匹配——用戶可以手動搜索其他用戶，找到合適的人並請求介紹。

侯賽尼告訴法爾斯，心理測試用於幫助尋找合適的人選，並篩選出不應進入婚姻程序的人格障礙人士。“這種篩選還有助於建立穩定和不斷增長的家庭，感謝上帝，這些家庭不會導致離婚，”導演說。

據伊朗媒體報導，在伊朗婦女的生育率在過去四年中下降了 25% 之後，官員們擔心伊朗的人口可能在 20 年內成為世界上最長壽的人口之一。該比率約為每名婦女生育 1.7 個孩子。

伊朗在十年前開始改變其計劃生育政策以提高出生率——使原本可以免費獲得的避孕措施逐漸變得更加難以獲得。

2014 年，最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)發布了一項法令，稱增加人口將“加強民族認同感”並對抗“西方生活方式的不良方面”。

哈梅內伊在 2019 年與年輕的新婚夫婦會面時，鼓勵政府官員為家庭提供更多支持，以增加伊斯蘭共和國的人口，並補充說“生育更多的孩子應該成為一種文化”，據他的網站稱。

哈梅內伊說：“人口多時，義人自然會更多，能力自然會更多，人力資源顯然會更先進。” 最高領導人將中國和印度作為人口大國如何取得更多成就的例子，卻沒有提到兩國都採取了限制人口增長的措施。

據法達電台報導，伊朗的年人口增長率在 1976 年為 3.7%，人口為 3300 萬，但此後下降至 1.3%，目前人口為 8200 萬。在 1979 年革命之前，伊朗官員擔心高增長率，但現在伊斯蘭共和國領導人對緩慢的增長率感到不滿。

伊朗的家庭規模也有所減少，同時出生率降低，結婚年齡提高。在 2016 年的人口普查中，大約有 1000 萬 20-39 歲的伊朗人是單身。

法爾達說，在 1990 年代，由於擔心人口爆炸，伊朗提供免費避孕服務並發布“支持輸精管切除術的宗教法令”。

根據哈梅內伊向前總統艾哈邁迪內賈德的保守派政府發出的直接命令，計劃生育的進步法律被撤銷，避孕藥具的獲得受到限制，自願絕育被取締。

這位最高領導人提倡擁有至少 1.5 億人口的伊朗，並在 2011 年堅稱“如果夫妻拒絕生育更多孩子，該國將在不久的將來面臨人口老齡化”。

伊朗議會通過了為生育和結婚提供經濟獎勵的規定，包括向有幾個孩子的年輕已婚夫婦提供貸款和救濟金。

“不要再重複陳詞濫調，說我們的國家很棒。我們的資源是有限的，”環境部負責人 Isa Kalantari 去年表示。“如果沒有保證進口，增加該國的人口將是不明智的，”他說，並補充說，這個國家將在不到 50 年的時間裡斷水。

Iran launches matchmaking app as fertility rates fall

The app offers matching and counseling services to prospective couples and their families, and remains in touch with them for four years after marriage.

By REUTERS, TZVI JOFFRE

JULY 27, 2021 11:57

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei smiles at a baby

(photo credit: KHAMENEI.IR)

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Facing a fall in fertility rates, Iran has launched a state-approved matchmaking app to promote marriages in the Islamic country which restricts contact between unrelated men and women.

Hamdam (Companion), developed by a state-affiliated Islamic cultural body, requires users to verify their identity, carries out psychological compatibility tests and gives advice for young singles seeking a marriage partner.

The app offers matching and counseling services to prospective couples and their families, and remains in touch with them for four years after marriage, the semi-official news agency Fars reported.

Since the app was unveiled, some 150,000 people have installed it, although only 6,500 users have been verified so far.

Western-style dating is banned under Iran's Islamic laws but many young people reject traditional arranged marriages and want to decide their own future.

The app is an update to the Tebyan matchmaking website which was launched in 2015. About 87,000 people had registered to that system as of two months ago, with about 3,700 successful marriages arranged by the site. On the website, applicants were required to fill out registration forms, provide two psychological tests and documents and undergo an in-person interview. The site was shut down two months ago in preparation for the launch of Hamdam.

App director Zohreh Sadat Hosseini told Fars News Agency that it aims to "make sure that young people can find their suitable partner in the shortest possible time in a scientific and calculated way, and with the support and supervision of their families."

Users complete forms, take two psychological tests and attach their documents. Their profile is then sent to companion experts for approval who also verify the applicant's information, according to Fars. Once the user is verified, the system will begin suggesting possible matches – users can manually search for other users, find the right person and request to be introduced.

Hosseini told Fars that the psychological tests are used to help find suitable matches and screen people with personality disorders who should not yet enter the marriage process. "This screening also helps to build stable and growing families that, thank God, will not lead to divorce," the director said.

OFFICIALS HAVE expressed concern that Iran's population could be among the oldest in the world in two decades after the fertility rate among Iranian women dropped 25% over the past four years, according to Iranian media reports. The rate is about 1.7 children per woman.

Iran started reversing its family planning policies a decade ago to increase the birth rate – making contraception, which had been available for free, gradually more difficult to get.

In 2014, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued an edict that said boosting the population would "strengthen national identity" and counter "undesirable aspects of Western lifestyles."

In a meeting with young newlywed couples in 2019, Khamenei encouraged government officials to provide more support to families in order to increase the Islamic republic's population, adding that "having more children should turn into a culture," according to his website.

"When the population is large, righteous individuals will naturally be larger in number, capabilities will naturally be more and human resources will obviously be more advanced," said Khamenei. The supreme leader presented China and India as examples of how countries with larger populations achieve more, neglecting to mention that both countries have implemented measures to restrict population growth.

The annual population growth rate in Iran was 3.7% in 1976 with a population of 33 million, but has plummeted to 1.3% since then with a current population of 82 million, according to Radio Farda. Prior to the 1979 revolution, Iranian officials were concerned about the high growth rate, but now Islamic republic leaders are unhappy with the slow rate.

The size of families has also decreased in Iran alongside a smaller birth rate and a higher age of marriage. In the 2016 census, about 10 million Iranians aged 20-39 were single.

In the 1990s, Iran offered free contraceptive services and issued "religious edicts in favor of vasectomies" due to fears of a population explosion, according to Farda.

Under direct orders issued by Khamenei to the conservative government of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, progressive laws on family planning were reversed, access to contraceptives was restricted and voluntary sterilization was outlawed.

The supreme leader promotes the idea of an Iran with at least 150 million people and insisted in 2011 that "the country would face an aging population in the not-too-distant future if couples refuse to have more children."

Iran's parliament has passed provisions to provide financial incentives for childbirth and marriage, including loans and handouts to young married couples with several children.

"Stop repeating the shibboleth and saying our country is great. Our resources are limited," said Environment Department head Isa Kalantari last year. "Without guaranteed imports, it will not be wise to increase the country's population," he said, adding that the nation will be left with no water in less than 50 years.

聖殿山在猶太民族心理中並不顯眼 - 這就是原因

FM Yair Lapid 和 MK Merav Ben-Ari 最近都說西牆是猶太教最神聖的地方。為什麼這是一個如此普遍的誤解？

作者：傑瑞米·沙龍

2021 年 7 月 27 日 21:50

2019 年，猶太信徒在西牆慶祝耶路撒冷日。

（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM）

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上週，外交部長兼候補總理亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 宣布西牆是猶太教最神聖的地方，引發了一場抗議風暴。

外交部長在前一天 Av 九日齋戒中回應事件，當時有幾位 MK 登上聖殿山，並發表了後來被總理納夫塔利·貝內特撤回的言論，即猶太人在那裡享有完全的禮拜自由。

Lapid 的黨內同事 MK Merav Ben-Ari 在接受電視採訪時發表了類似的評論，儘管她後來更正了自己，而反對派領導人和時任總理 MK Benjamin Netanyahu 從 2013 年起的評論被挖出來，他說西牆是猶太人最神聖的地方。

問題？事實上，西牆並不是猶太教中最神聖的地方，而是西牆支撐的聖殿山才是真正的最神聖的地方。

聖殿山是古代第一和第二聖殿所在的地方，根據聖經，亞伯拉罕綁定以撒，雅各夢想梯子通向天堂的地方，根據塔木德，是整個世界被創造的地方.

為什麼儘管猶太歷史和傳統與聖殿山有著明確的聯繫，但西牆卻在猶太民族意識中佔有一席之地，成為猶太教中最神聖的地方？

聖殿委員會的發言人阿薩夫·弗里德 (Asaf Fried) 是一個在聖殿山上促進猶太人權利的激進組織，他指出，在中世紀早期，猶太人能夠，而且確實，在西牆成為聖殿山之前很久，就能夠上聖殿山祈禱。朝聖地。

但他指出，當十字軍到達聖地並征服耶路撒冷時，他們禁止猶太人登上聖殿山，而猶太人則在西牆祈禱。

這是最靠近古代寺廟的至聖所所在的地點，而米德拉什（聖經註釋）指出，儘管寺廟被毀，但神的存在永遠不會離開西牆。

在十字軍遠去之後，這種情況持續了數百年。

17 和 18 世紀，當聖地的猶太人定居點再次開始增長時，奧斯曼帝國的統治者繼續禁止猶太人登上聖殿山，但允許他們在距離該地點最近的地方西牆祈禱.

自從首席拉比在國家建立之前成立以來，它擔心猶太人會因為儀式純度問題而進入猶太法律禁止的聖殿山區域，因此禁止所有訪問聖地的任何部分。

1948年約旦人攻克耶路撒冷老城後，連西牆都無法到達。

但從 1967 年以色列從約旦人手中奪回東耶路撒冷和聖殿山之後，幾乎沒有動靜來重申猶太人在聖殿山上的權利。

舊城穆格拉比區被拆除，在西牆建立祈禱廣場，舊現狀穆斯林在遺址南端的阿克薩清真寺祈禱，猶太人在西牆祈禱。牆下，堅持。

“我們是一個保守的社會，我們對事件的反應很慢，”弗里德說。

“很多人認為西牆是聖地，但它是其他東西的牆，而不是它本身的東西。”

Yehudah Glick 是聖殿山的長期活動家和前利庫德集團 (Likud MK)，同意弗里德的觀點。

“當你無法到達想去的地方時，你就會去最近的地方。你會習慣你所擁有的，”格利克說。

“我們生活在這樣一個環境中，我們所追求的頂峰是我們 50 年前無法達到的，”他繼續說道，提到以色列人在獨立戰爭和六日戰爭之間祈禱的願望西牆。

“現實很難改變。以色列人離開埃及的奴隸制後，他們開始抱怨說，他們想回來拿他們過去在那裡吃的所有免費西瓜和黃瓜，”格里克在提到聖經中記錄的出埃及記時說。

然而，格里克堅持認為，儘管公眾明顯缺乏聖殿山對猶太教的中心地位的了解，但猶太人與該地點的聯繫至關重要。

“上帝選擇了猶太人，他選擇聖殿山作為他在世界上的安息之地，因此，我們有一個共同的命運，就是從聖殿宣告上帝的國度，聖殿將成為所有人祈禱的殿堂人，在那裡所有國家都將宣布上帝是一，他的名字是一。

“我們只能在聖殿山上的聖殿做到這一點，這是上帝選擇放置的地方，他的宮殿。我們不能選擇其他任何地方。”

Temple Mount doesn't loom large in the Jewish national psyche - here's why

Both FM Yair Lapid and MK Merav Ben-Ari recently said that the Western Wall is Judaism's holiest site. Why is this such a common misconception?

By JEREMY SHARON

JULY 27, 2021 21:50

Jewish worshipers celebrate Jerusalem Day at the Western Wall in 2019.

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

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Last week, Foreign Minister and Alternative Prime Minister Yair Lapid set off a storm of protest when he declared the Western Wall to be the holiest site in Judaism.

The foreign minister was responding to events on the Fast of the Ninth of Av, the day before, when several MKs ascended the Temple Mount, and remarks, later withdrawn by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, that Jews had full freedom of worship there.

Lapid’s party colleague, MK Merav Ben-Ari, then made similar comments when asked in a TV interview, although she later corrected herself, while comments by opposition leader and then prime minister MK Benjamin Netanyahu from 2013 were dug up where he said the Western Wall was the holiest site for Jews.

The problem? The Western Wall is not, in fact, the holiest site in Judaism, but rather the Temple Mount which the Western Wall buttresses, is the true holiest site.

The Temple Mount is where the First and Second temples of ancient times were located, where according to the Bible, Abraham bound Isaac, where Jacob had his dream of a ladder reaching to Heaven and according to the Talmud, is where the entire world was created.

Why is it that despite the clear connection in Jewish history and tradition to the Temple Mount, it is the Western Wall which has claimed a place in the national Jewish consciousness as the holiest site in Judaism?

Asaf Fried, spokesman for the Temple Committee, an activist group promoting Jewish rights on the Temple Mount, notes that in early Medieval times Jews were able, and did indeed, go up to the Temple Mount to pray, long before the Western Wall became a site of pilgrimage.

But he noted that when the Crusaders reached the Holy Land and conquered Jerusalem, they forbade Jews from ascending the Temple Mount and Jews prayed instead at the Western Wall.

This was the site closest to where the Holy of Holies of the ancient temples was located, while a Midrash (biblical commentary) stated that the divine presence would never leave the Western Wall, despite the destruction of the temple.

This situation prevailed for hundreds of years after the Crusaders were long gone.

When Jewish settlement in the Holy Land began to grow again in the 17 and 18th centuries, the Ottoman rulers continued to forbid Jews from going up to the Temple Mount, but allowed them to pray at the closest accessible spot to the site, the Western Wall.

And since the Chief Rabbinate was founded, before the establishment of the state, it has worried that Jews would enter areas of the Temple Mount prohibited by Jewish law due to ritual purity concerns, and therefore banned all visitation to any part of the holy site.

After the Jordanians conquered the Old City of Jerusalem in 1948, even to the Western Wall was beyond reach.

But from 1967 when Israel captured east Jerusalem and the Temple Mount back from the Jordanians, there was little movement to reassert Jewish rights on the Temple Mount.

The Mughrabi Quarter in the Old City was demolished to create a prayer plaza at the Western Wall, and the old status quo in which Muslims would pray at al-Aqsa mosque located at the southern end of the site, and Jews would pray at the Western Wall below, persisted.

“We are a conservative society, and we react slowly to events,” says Fried.

“A lot of people think the Western Wall is a holy site, but it is a wall of something else, not something in and of itself.”

Yehudah Glick, a long-time Temple Mount activist and former Likud MK, concurs with Fried.

“When you can’t get somewhere you want to go, then you go to the closest place you can. And you get used to what you have,” said Glick.

“We live in an environment in which the peak of what we strive for is what we couldn’t get 50 years ago,” he continues, in reference to the desire of Israelis between the War of Independence and the Six Day War to pray at the Western Wall.

“It’s hard to change reality. After the Israelites left slavery in Egypt, they began complaining that they wanted to return for all the free watermelon and cucumbers which they used to eat there,” said Glick in reference to the events of the Exodus as recorded in the Bible.

Glick insists, however, that despite the apparent lack of public knowledge of the centrality of the Temple Mount to Judaism, it is critical for the Jewish people to be connected to that site.

“God chose the Jewish people and he chose the Temple Mount as His one resting place in the world, and as a result, we have a common destiny which is to declare God’s kingdom from the Temple, which will be a house of prayer for all people, and where all nations will announce that God is one and His name is one.

“We can only do that from the Temple on the Temple Mount, which is where God chose to place, his palace. We cannot choose anywhere else.”