2021.09.15 國際新聞導讀-美國以色列都警告伊朗可在短期內做出核武彈頭，極可能近期動手攻擊、中東什葉派武裝團體收伊朗支持裝備大升級、以色列總總理班奈特

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.09.15 國際新聞導讀-美國以色列都警告伊朗可在短期內做出核武彈頭，極可能近期動手攻擊、中東什葉派武裝團體收伊朗支持裝備大升級、以色列總理班奈特反對與巴勒斯坦恢復和談

貝內特：我們希望合作夥伴對抗伊朗，但無論如何都會採取行動

談到內塔尼亞胡在聯合國大會上揮舞的卡通片，貝內特說：“還記得我的前任用炸彈和紅線做的介紹嗎？伊朗很久以前就通過了。”

通過LAHAV哈爾科夫

2021 年 9 月 14 日 22:24

NAFTALI BENNETT 於 2021 年 8 月 2 日在以色列議會的講台上做手勢

（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM）

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以色列總理納夫塔利·貝內特週二在接受第 12 頻道新聞採訪時表示，以色列希望與其盟友合作對抗伊朗，但即使它必須單獨行動，也將阻止伊斯蘭共和國獲得核武器。

“我們向我們在美國的朋友以及該地區的國家提出了一項行動計劃，因為如果我們的合作夥伴在採取獨立行動的同時採取行動，我們會很高興，”他說。“無論如何，責任都在這裡，我們將不惜任何代價阻止伊朗獲得核武器。”

當被問及他對前總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡對伊朗的努力的批評時，貝內特說：“這件事的全貌是一個非常難以忽視的問題……[但]我相信當出現問題時，不要踢球給別人。無論是否繼承，我們都需要解決問題。”

“以色列政府繼承了伊朗在原子彈競賽中處於有史以來最先進點的情況……[內塔尼亞胡]的言辭與言論和行動之間的差距非常大，”他補充道。

內塔尼亞胡伊朗炸彈紅線 370（來源：REUTERS/Lucas Jackson）

談到內塔尼亞胡在聯合國大會上揮舞的卡通片，貝內特說：“還記得我的前任用炸彈和紅線做的介紹嗎？伊朗很久以前就通過了。”

事實上，內塔尼亞胡的炸彈卡通上的紅線是 90% 濃縮，這是炸彈需要的點。然而，目前尚不清楚伊朗是否達到了這一水平。本週科學與國際安全研究所的一項評估表明，在最壞的情況下，伊朗距離這一目標還有一個月的時間。

貝內特預計將於 9 月 27 日在聯合國大會上發表講話。

Bennett: We want partners against Iran but will act either way

Referring to a cartoon Netanyahu wielded at the UN General Assembly, Bennett said: “Remember the presentation of my predecessor with the bomb and the redline? Iran passed it long ago.”

By LAHAV HARKOV

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 22:24

NAFTALI BENNETT gestures at the podium in Knesset, August 2, 2021

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

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Israel wants to work with its allies against Iran, but will stop the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon even if it has to work alone, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said in an interview with Channel 12 News on Tuesday.

“We presented to our friends in the US a plan of action, as well as to countries in the region, because we’d be happy if, along with our independent actions, our partners will act,” he said. “Either way, the responsibility is here, and we will stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon at any price.”

Asked about his criticisms of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts against Iran, Bennett said: “The full picture on this matter is a very difficult one of neglect…[but] I believe when there’s a problem, don’t kick the ball to someone else. Inherited or not, we need to solve the problems.”

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“The government of Israel inherited a situation in which Iran is at the most advanced point ever in its race to the bomb… The gap between [Netanyahu’s] rhetoric and speeches and actions is very big,” he added.

Netanyahu Iran bomb red line 370 (credit: REUTERS/Lucas Jackson)

Referring to a cartoon Netanyahu wielded at the UN General Assembly, Bennett said: “Remember the presentation of my predecessor with the bomb and the redline? Iran passed it long ago.”

In fact, the redline on Netanyahu’s bomb cartoon was at 90% enrichment, the point at which it needs to be for a bomb. However, Iran is not yet known to have reached that level. An assessment by the Institute for Science and International Security this week put Iran at a month away from that, in the worst-case scenario.

Bennett is expected to address the UN General Assembly on September 27.

伊朗將在一個月內擁有足夠的鈾來製造核武器 - 報告

據報導，自 2015 年核協議簽署之前，伊朗從未如此接近核能力。

作者：YONAH JEREMY BOB，耶路撒冷郵局工作人員

2021 年 9 月 14 日 19:20

10 月，伊朗防空部隊參加了軍事演習，伊朗國旗被拍到在導彈附近。（西亞通訊社/路透社）

（圖片來源：西亞新聞社/路透社）

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根據美國智庫科學與國際安全研究所 (ISIS) 週一發布的一份報告，伊朗有望在一個月內獲得足夠製造核彈的濃縮鈾。

該研究所預計，在最壞的情況下，伊朗可以在短短一個月內生產出足夠用於製造一枚核武器的武器級鈾，並在三個月內生產出足夠用於製造第二件武器的鈾，並在五個月內製造出三分之一。

伊朗已經擁有 200 克濃縮鈾金屬，這是生產核武器不可或缺的元素。

ISIS 的報告——也被稱為“好 ISIS”——並不意味著伊斯蘭共和國可以發射核武器，因為這需要與引爆和交付相關的額外任務。這些額外的任務可能需要六個月到近兩年的時間，具體取決於相互矛盾的情報評估，這些評估估計了伊朗在這些領域的秘密進展程度。但如果正確，該報告意味著德黑蘭正處於一個新的核門檻，需要的只是政治決定。

智囊團的這一預測伴隨著周日對 IAEA 與德黑蘭的最新協議的批評，該協議與伊朗新政府就核問題展開了新的對話，但伊朗沒有停止違反 2015 年 JCPOA 核問題的 60% 濃縮行為。交易。

自 4 月以來，伊朗將其濃縮度從 5% 和 20% 躍升至 60% 的水平，這被認為僅比 90% 的武器化水平低一級。

報告稱：“截至 8 月 30 日，伊朗已經生產了 IAEA 估計的 10 公斤濃縮鈾庫存，其中接近 60%，”估計 40 公斤“大約足以製造一枚核爆炸物”。

此外，該報告稱，伊朗擁有 IAEA 估計的 84.3 千克 20% 濃縮鈾庫存，比上一報告期的 62.8 千克 20% 濃縮鈾有所增加。

此外，儘管 IAEA 之前的報告“表明濃縮離心機的數量減少了……在 4 月 11 日涉及爆炸的破壞事件之後，濃縮 IR-1 級聯和 IR-2m 級聯的數量似乎幾乎完全恢復。

在較低的水平上，伊朗實際上已經有足夠的數量來製造多枚核彈幾個月了。

在 2015 年 JCPOA 之前，伊朗擁有足夠的低濃縮鈾來製造大約 10 顆核彈。

這份報告最重要的是，它是根據IAEA報告本身以定量科學術語闡述的，而不是以色列或其他政治家有時更為模糊的陳述。

2015 年在華盛頓國會山反對伊朗核協議。（來源：JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS）

批評者會注意到，該智庫的創始人大衛奧爾布賴特在伊朗問題上是鷹派，但該報告是基於 IAEA 的數據。

報告得出結論認為，伊朗的所有舉動都旨在迫使美國在核談判中讓步，該談判在 5 月至 6 月間破裂，自 8 月伊朗新總統易卜拉欣·賴西當選以來已完全凍結。

現任和前任以色列政府都反對在沒有進行大規模改變以填補漏洞的情況下恢復 JCPOA，而拜登政府已積極採取行動以恢復該協議。

迄今為止，政府官員含糊地威脅說，他們對伊朗重返談判桌的耐心並非無限，而是避免了任何實際的最後期限。

國防部長本尼·甘茨上個月表示，伊朗距離獲得核武器還有兩個月的時間。

Iran will have enough uranium for nuclear weapon in one month - report

Iran has reportedly not been this close to nuclear capability since before the nuclear accord in 2015.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFF

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 19:20

AN IRANIAN FLAG is pictured near in a missile during a military drill, with the participation of Iran’s air defense units in October. (West Asia News Agency/Reuters)

(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

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Iran is on track to obtaining enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb within a month, according to a report published on Monday by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a US-based think tank.

The institute projected that in a worst-case scenario, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon within as little as a month, and could produce enough for a second weapon within three months, and a third within five months.

Iran already has 200 grams of enriched uranium metal, which is an integral element for the production of nuclear weapons.

The report by ISIS – also known as the “good ISIS” – would not mean the Islamic Republic could fire a nuclear weapon, as this requires additional tasks relating to detonation and delivery. These additional tasks could take between six months and nearly two years depending on contradictory intelligence assessments, which estimate how far Iran has clandestinely progressed in these areas. But if correct, the report means Tehran is at a new nuclear threshold where all that is needed is the political decision.

This prediction by the think tank came with criticism of the IAEA’S latest deal with Tehran on Sunday, in which a new dialogue was opened with Iran’s new government over nuclear issues, but without the Islamic Republic stopping its 60% enrichment violation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.

Since April, Iran jumped its enrichment from 5% and 20% to the 60% level, which is considered only one level down from the 90% weaponized level.

“As of August 30, Iran has produced an IAEA-estimated stock of 10 kilograms of near 60 percent enriched uranium,” the report said, estimating that 40 kilograms would be “roughly enough for one nuclear explosive.”

Moreover, the report said that Iran has an IAEA-estimated stock of 84.3 kg of 20% enriched uranium, an increase from the previous reporting period’s 62.8 kg of 20% enriched uranium.

In addition, though the previous IAEA report “indicated a reduced quantity of enriching centrifuges… following an April 11 sabotage event involving an explosion, the number of enriching IR-1 cascades and IR-2m cascades appears to have almost fully recovered.

At lower levels, Iran has in fact had sufficient quantity for multiple nuclear bombs for several months.

Before the 2015 JCPOA, Iran had sufficient low enriched uranium for around 10 nuclear bombs.

What was most significant about the report was that it was laid out in quantitative scientific terms based on IAEA reports themselves, as opposed to the sometimes more vague statements by Israeli or other politicians.

RALLYING AGAINST the Iran nuclear deal on Capitol Hill in Washington, 2015. (credit: JONATHAN ERNST / REUTERS)

Critics will note that the think tank’s founder, David Albright, is a hawk on Iran issues, but the report is based on IAEA data.

The report concluded that all Iranian moves are designed to pressure the US into concessions in the nuclear negotiations, which broke down between May and June and have been totally frozen since new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was elected in August.

The current and former Israeli governments both oppose a return to the JCPOA without massive changes to fill holes, whereas the Biden administration has moved aggressively to return to the deal.

To date, administration officials have vaguely threatened that their patience for Iran to return to the negotiating table was not limitless, but have avoided any actual deadline.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated last month that Iran was two months away from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

貝內特：巴勒斯坦建國將是一個可怕的錯誤

總理推斷，如果哈馬斯或其他巴勒斯坦團體接管西岸，以色列人的生活就會變成活生生的地獄。

作者：托瓦·拉扎羅夫

2021 年 9 月 14 日 23:22

7月14日，納夫塔利·貝內特總理在耶路撒冷舉行新聞發布會。

（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM）

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總理納夫塔利·貝內特（Naftali Bennett）在與埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西（Abdel Fattah al-Sisi）的歷史性會晤回來後於週二晚上接受了一系列媒體採訪時說，建立一個巴勒斯坦國將是一個可怕的錯誤。

“我反對建立一個巴勒斯坦國。我認為如果將加沙的可怕局勢帶到猶太和撒馬利亞，那將是一個可怕的錯誤，”貝內特告訴 KAN 新聞。

他的評論提到哈馬斯在 2007 年的血腥政變中將巴勒斯坦權力機構趕出加沙，並強行接管了該飛地，以及隨之而來的對以色列南部的火箭襲擊。

他推斷，如果哈馬斯或另一個激進的巴勒斯坦團體同樣會接管西岸，並將居住在 Kfar Saba 和他的家鄉 Raanana 的以色列人的生活變成活生生的地獄。

“我不會那樣做，”他說。

巴勒斯坦權力機構主席馬哈茂德·阿巴斯（圖片來源：FLASH90）

貝內特表示，他理解無論如何，此時巴勒斯坦建國是不可行的，因此是否支持的問題無關緊要。

然而，貝內特說，重要的是為巴勒斯坦人提供改善他們生活的經濟機會。

“我的觀點是一種非常商業化的觀點，”他說。“如果我們為猶地亞和撒馬利亞的每個人創造更多業務、加強經濟並改善他們的生活條件，那就更好了，”他補充說。

會見了塞西和約旦國王阿卜杜拉的貝內特澄清說，他無意與巴勒斯坦民族權力機構主席馬哈茂德·阿巴斯交談。

貝內特說：“我不認為與在海牙國際刑事法院起訴以色列國防軍士兵及其指揮官的人（阿巴斯）會面或交談是合乎邏輯的。” 他補充說，雖然阿巴斯“指責以色列國防軍指揮官和士兵犯有戰爭罪”，但他每月向恐怖分子提供金錢津貼。

Bennett: Palestinian statehood would be a terrible mistake

The Prime Minister inferred that if Hamas or other Palestinian groups would take over the West Bank it would turn the lives of Israelis into a living hell.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 23:22

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett holds a news conference in Jerusalem on July 14.

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

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It would be a terrible mistake to create a Palestinian state, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said, in a series of media interviews he gave on Tuesday night just after his return from his historic meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

"I oppose a Palestinian state. I think it would be a terrible mistake that would take the terrible situation in Gaza and recreate it in Judea and Samaria," Bennett told KAN news.

His comments referred to Hamas ouster of the Palestinian Authority from Gaza in a bloody coup in 2007 and its forced take over of the enclave as well as the consequent rocket attacks against southern Israel.

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He inferred that if Hamas or another radicle Palestinian group would similarly take over the West Bank and turn the lives of Israelis living in Kfar Saba and his home city of Raanana into a living hell.

"I will not do that," he said.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas (credit: FLASH90)

Bennett said that he understood that in any event, Palestinian statehood at this time was not feasible and thus the question of whether to support it was not relevant.

It was, however, important to provide economic opportunities for the Palestinian that would improve their lives, Bennett said.

"My outlook is a very business-like one," he said. "If we create more business, strengthen the economy and improve living conditions for everyone in Judea and Samaria, that would be better," he added.

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Bennett, who has met with both Sisi and Jordan's King Abdullah, clarified that he has no intention to speak with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

"I do not see the logic in meeting or talking to a person [Abbas] who is suing IDF soldiers and their commanders at the International Criminal Court at The Hague," Bennett said. He added that while Abbas was "accusing IDF commanders and soldiers of war crimes," he is providing monthly monetary stipends to terrorists.

伊拉克的親伊朗民兵會更多地與巴勒斯坦人合作嗎？

伊拉克的親伊朗民兵可能希望將武器和威脅轉移到更靠近以色列邊境的地方。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

2021 年 9 月 14 日 15:37

來自伊朗支持的真主黨組織的伊拉克什葉派穆斯林男子在慶祝一年一度的聖城日或耶路撒冷日的最後一個星期五的遊行中沿著一條塗有以色列國旗顏色的街道，揮舞著黨的旗幟。穆斯林齋月，在巴格達

（圖片來源：THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS）

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親伊朗民兵越來越多地使用無人機來瞄準美軍。據稱，上週他們駕駛一架無人機飛往埃爾比勒國際機場，以瞄準伊拉克庫爾德斯坦地區的美軍。伊拉克的那些民兵現在能否與巴勒斯坦人更密切地合作？在親伊朗網站 Al-Mayadeen 的一篇文章中，本週出現了更密切合作的暗示。

為什麼這很重要？5 月，一架伊朗無人機從伊拉克或敘利亞飛往以色列領空並被擊落。以色列國防部長本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）警告稱，伊朗本週將在伊朗用無人機訓練代理部隊。哈馬斯還在 5 月份使用了新型伊朗式神風無人機。

甘茨於 9 月 12 日在賴克曼大學舉行的國際反恐研究所 (ICT) 年度會議上警告說，“伊朗發展了‘代理恐怖’，這是由有組織的‘恐怖部隊’實施的，這些部隊正在協助伊朗實現其經濟、政治和政治目標。軍事目標。伊朗及其代理人使用的最重要的工具之一是射程數千公里的無人機。數百架這樣的無人機分佈在也門、伊拉克、敘利亞和黎巴嫩。伊朗還試圖將無人機生產所需的技術轉移到加沙。”

他說，伊朗的卡尚基地被用來訓練來自也門、伊拉克、敘利亞和黎巴嫩的恐怖分子。這些恐怖分子受過訓練，可以使用伊朗生產的無人機。這個基地是伊朗空中恐怖主義出口到該地區的關鍵點。”

文章假設，“在‘伊斯蘭國’被擊敗後，伊拉克抵抗派的力量不斷增強，以及他們在支持和加強該地區問題，其中最重要的是巴勒斯坦事業方面的作用，使美國人感到‘一個國家’。焦慮”，美國的聲明“支持以色列在該地區的力量”以及美國和以色列對這些派系的地點的襲擊都證明了這一點。”

一架 IAF 戰鬥機正在以色列北部的 Vered Hagalil 演習中起飛。（信用：以色列國防軍發言人單位）

這句話暗示了更大的上下文。早在 2019 年，親伊朗的民兵就指責以色列在伊拉克進行空襲。2017 年秋天，伊拉克 Asaib Ahl al-Haq 民兵組織的 Qais Khazali 訪問黎巴嫩，表示他將在與以色列的戰爭中支持真主黨。2018 年夏天，伊拉克邊境附近敘利亞阿爾布卡邁勒的 Kataib 真主黨總部遭到空襲。據稱，這是伊朗通往大海之路的一部分，這是一條親伊朗團體的走廊，從巴格達經阿爾布卡邁勒一直延伸到大馬士革和黎巴嫩。

現在 Al-Mayadeen 說，伊拉克的親伊朗團體一直在增加對巴勒斯坦人的言辭支持，尤其是對哈馬斯的支持。伊朗支持哈馬斯和巴勒斯坦伊斯蘭聖戰組織。伊朗還通過伊斯蘭革命衛隊聖城軍支持伊拉克民兵。美國於 2020 年 1 月殺死了聖城旅負責人卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼。 文章中引用了 Al-Nujaba 運動的話說，“伊拉克抵抗運動的手深入被佔領的巴勒斯坦領土”。

文章稱，其他派係也支持巴勒斯坦人、議會中的法塔赫聯盟，其中巴德爾組織是其中的重要組成部分，還有卡塔伊布真主黨。卡塔布真主黨領導人阿布·馬赫迪·穆罕迪斯在 2020 年殺死蘇萊曼尼的同一空襲中被美國殺死。

這裡重要的是傳達的信息而不是實地的事實。民兵可能希望將武器和威脅轉移到更靠近戈蘭邊境的地方，就像真主黨在 2019 年秋季對無人機小組所做的那樣。 2018 年 2 月，伊朗還將一架無人機從 T-4 基地飛入以色列領空。它在貝特謝恩附近被擊落。伊朗的目標是慢慢為更多合作奠定基礎，並利用這些團體作為武器的渠道。2018 年 8 月和 2019 年 11 月，有報導稱伊朗已將彈道導彈轉移到伊拉克，存放在這些團體使用的倉庫中。在埃爾比勒等地對美軍的新無人機襲擊，以及代爾祖爾附近親伊朗民兵對奧馬爾油田和敘利亞東部其他地方的美軍的威脅，都是這一威脅網絡的一部分。

伊朗還吹噓它支持也門的胡塞武裝，他們已經獲得了遠程彈道導彈和無人機的能力。他們使用無人機和導彈瞄準沙特阿美和其他能源設施。7 月下旬，伊朗還使用無人機瞄準了默瑟街。胡塞武裝可能正在部署能夠威脅以色列的伊朗無人機。

Will pro-Iranian militias in Iraq work more with Palestinians?

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq may want to transfer weapons and threats closer to the border with Israel.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 15:37

Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party's flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in Baghdad

(photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

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Pro-Iranian militias have increasingly used drones to target US forces. In the last week they allegedly flew a drone toward Erbil International Airport to target US forces in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Could those militias in Iraq now be working more closely with Palestinians? In an article at the pro-Iranian site Al-Mayadeen, hints of closer cooperation emerged this week.

Why does this matter? In May, an Iranian drone was flown from Iraq or Syria into Israeli airspace and shot down. Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned about Iran training proxy forces with drones in Iran this week. Hamas also used new Iranian-style kamikaze drones in May.

Gantz warned on September 12 at the annual International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) Conference at Reichman University that “Iran has developed ‘proxy terror’ which is perpetrated by organized ‘terror armies’ which are assisting Iran in achieving its economic, political and military goals. One of the most significant tools employed by Iran and its proxies is UAVs with a range of thousands of kilometers. Hundreds of these UAVs are spread across Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran is also attempting to transfer the know-how needed for UAV production to Gaza.”

He said that the Kashan base in Iran is used to train terrorists from Yemen, Iraq, Syria snd Lebanon. These terrorists are trained to employ UAVs produced by Iran. This base is a key point from which Iranian aerial terrorism is exported to the region.”

The article postulates that the “growing strength of the resistance factions in Iraq after the defeat of ‘ISIS’, and their role in supporting and strengthening the issues of the region, foremost of which is the Palestinian cause , made the American feel ‘a state of anxiety’, demonstrated by the American statements ‘supporting Israel's strength in the region’ and the American and Israeli strikes on the sites of these factions.”

An IAF fighter jet is seen taking off amid the Vered Hagalil drill in Israel's North. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

This sentence hints at a larger context. Back in 2019, the pro-Iranian militias accused Israel of airstrikes in Iraq. In the fall of 2017, Qais Khazali of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia in Iraq visited Lebanon to say he would support Hezbollah in a war with Israel. In the summer of 2018, an airstrike targeted a Kataib Hezbollah headquarters in Albukamal in Syria near the Iraqi border. This was allegedly part of Iran’s path to the sea, a corridor of pro-Iranian groups stretching from Baghdad via Albukamal to Damascus and Lebanon.

Now Al-Mayadeen says that pro-Iranian groups in Iraq have been increasing their rhetorical support for Palestinians, especially for Hamas. Iran backs Hamas and also Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran also backs the Iraqi militias via the IRGC Quds Force. The US killed Qasem Soleimani, head fo the Quds Force, in January 2020. The Al-Nujaba movement is quoted in the article as say "the hands of the Iraqi resistance reach deep into the occupied Palestinian territories.”

The article says other factions also support the Palestinians, the Fatah Alliance in parliament, of which Badr Organization is a key part, and also Kataib Hezbollah. Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-MUhandis was killed by the US in the same airstrike that killed Soleimani in 2020.

What matters here is more the messaging than the facts on the ground. The militias may want to transfer weapons and threats closer to the Golan border, as Hezbollah did with a drone team in the fall of 2019. In February 2018 Iran also flew a drone from T-4 base into Israeli airspace. It was shot down near Beit Shean. The goal of Iran is to slowly lay the groundwork for more cooperation and use these groups as a conduit for weapons. In August 2018 and November 2019, reports emerged that Iran had moved ballistic missiles to Iraq to be housed in warehouses used by these groups. The new drone attacks on US forces in places like Erbil, and threats by pro-Iran militias near Deir Ezzor to US forces at Omar oil field and other locations in eastern Syria, is part of this web of threats.

Iran has also bragged about its support for Houthis in Yemen who have achieved long range ballistic missile and drone capabilities. They have used drones and missiles to target Aramco and other energy facilities in Saudi Arabia. Iran also used a drone to target the Mercer Street in late July. The Houthis may be basing Iranian drones capable of threatening Israel as well.

伊朗在黎巴嫩的目標：像阿富汗一樣把美國人趕出去——分析

伊朗認為，只要稍加推動，美國就會在許多地區收起自己的牌。黎巴嫩就是這樣一個地區。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

2021 年 9 月 14 日 17:42

伊朗新總統易卜拉欣·賴西於 2021 年 8 月 3 日在伊朗德黑蘭獲得伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊 (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) 的總統批准令。

（圖片來源：哈梅內伊官方網站/通過路透社的講義）

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伊朗在黎巴嫩有一個目標，它涉及向敘利亞運送裝有燃料的油輪，這將有助於使黎巴嫩看起來不那麼依賴西方​​。與伊朗的許多政策一樣，例如濃縮鈾，實際政策比西方媒體描述的要復雜。伊朗喜歡通過威脅、攻擊以及外交和經濟舉措來玩弄外交關係。它以類似國際象棋的方式執行此操作。伊朗公開吹噓其複雜的多層次方法。

當談到黎巴嫩，未來幾天和幾週內敘利亞海岸附近出現一艘或幾艘油輪，實際上可能只是實際發生的冰山一角。油輪可能會分散注意力。我們知道真主黨吹噓這些伊朗油輪抵達敘利亞海岸。

TankerTrackers.com於 9 月 14 日在推特上寫道，“視覺確認：伊朗靈便型油輪 FAXON (9283758) 正在排放 33,000 公噸汽油。由於製裁無法直接通過海路運送到黎巴嫩，該船改為前往敘利亞的巴尼亞斯進行陸路轉運。將需要 1,310 輛卡車。”

來自 Jpost 的最新文章

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Israeli aircraft crashes near Greece, 2killed ‑ report

現在我們知道其中一艘感興趣的油輪在敘利亞海岸附近。但伊朗在說什麼？Al-Mayadeen 等親伊朗媒體吹噓伊朗正在通過其“抵抗軸心”將美國和美國夥伴驅逐出該地區。這種抵抗包括黎巴嫩的真主黨、敘利亞的伊朗軍隊、也門的胡塞武裝和伊拉克的親伊朗民兵。

Al-Mayadeen 上的一篇文章詳細介紹了伊朗如何看待這個成功故事。“據推測，美國政府允許黎巴嫩政府與敘利亞政府溝通以進口埃及天然氣的決定並不屬於例外情況，也不是應黎巴嫩政府要求其免於遵守凱撒法案的製裁。

“它的介紹不是基於黎巴嫩官方要求正視黎巴嫩國家正在遭受的崩潰，而是美國評估的結果，即旨在壓制抵抗的圍困並沒有導致預期的結果。結果，”本週的一篇文章指出。

這個複雜的詞沙拉是什麼意思？這意味著伊朗和真主黨在等待美國利用制裁孤立敘利亞政權。制裁顯然也損害了黎巴嫩經濟。黎巴嫩正處於經濟自由落體狀態。伊朗隨後設計通過敘利亞向黎巴嫩輸送天然氣，以展示它如何幫助黎巴嫩。

但評估是什麼？伊朗看到了它是如何在黎巴嫩製造崩潰的。“由於這次圍困，黎巴嫩國家的基礎崩潰了，它的工具也被削弱了，而抵抗運動成功地適應了這一現實，在一個綜合項目的基礎上再接再厲，這將使黎巴嫩國家擺脫對工具的依賴。美國強加給它的權力。”

這意味著伊朗給了美國一個 catch-22。目標：讓美國依賴與伊朗結盟的敘利亞政權。與此同時，目標是減少美國在黎巴嫩的影響力。美國過去支持黎巴嫩武裝部隊，並在 1980 年代干預黎巴嫩。

伊朗的 Tasnim 新聞也闡明了德黑蘭的目標。“在第一階段，如上所述，抵抗通過拒絕落入敵人的圈套，阻止了美國目標的實現，儘管人民忍受了所有的痛苦和苦難。

第二階段，憑藉突破圍困、跨越政治真空、借助東方經濟轉型的戰略決策，給敵人以致命的打擊。在這方面阻力的第一個行動是從伊朗進口燃料，並建議伊朗和東方公司可能接管黎巴嫩的能源開採業務。” 伊朗的目標是將黎巴嫩進一步拉入伊朗的魔掌，並使其更接近於去年出現的伊朗-中國經濟協定。

伊朗將黎巴嫩視為棋盤的一部分，並希望從該地區移除美國棋子。它不能使用軍事手段，所以它會使用經濟手段。這是在美國離開阿富汗的背景下發生的。伊朗認為，只要稍加推動，美國就會在許多地區收起自己的牌。黎巴嫩就是這樣一個地區。

Iran’s goal in Lebanon: Push the Americans out, like Afghanistan - analysis

Iran believes that with a bit of a push, the US will fold up its cards in many regions. Lebanon is one such region.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 17:42

Iran's new President Ebrahim Raisi receives the endorsement decree for his presidency from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran August 3, 2021.

(photo credit: OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

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Iran has a goal in Lebanon and it involves sending tankers with fuel to Syria that will help make Lebanon appear less dependent on the West. Like many Iranian policies, such as enriching uranium, the actual policy is more complex than western media portray it. Iran likes to play foreign relations with a mix of threats, attacks and diplomatic and economic initiatives. It does this in a chess-like manner. Iran openly boasts of its complex multi-layered approach.

When it comes to Lebanon the appearance of a tanker or several tankers off the coast of Syria in coming days and weeks, may actually be just the tip of the iceberg of what is actually happening. The tankers may be a distraction. We know that Hezbollah has boasted of these Iranian tankers arriving off the coast of Syria.

TankerTrackers.com tweeted on September 14, “visual confirmation: The Iranian handysize tanker FAXON (9283758) is discharging 33,000 metric tons of gasoil. Unable to deliver directly by sea to Lebanon due to sanctions, the vessel went instead to Baniyas, Syria for land transfer. Shall require 1,310 truckloads.”

Now we know that one of the tankers of interest is off the coast of Syria. But what is Iran saying? Pro-Iranian media such as Al-Mayadeen are boasting that Iran is evicting the US and US partners from the region through its “axis of resistance.” This resistance includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian forces in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iran militias in Iraq.

An article at Al-Mayadeen details how Iran views this success story. “It is assumed that the US administration’s decision to allow the Lebanese government to communicate with the Syrian state in order to import Egyptian gas was not classified as exceptional or in response to the demand of the Lebanese state that it should be exempted from complying with the sanctions of the Caesar Act.

“Its introductions were not based on an official Lebanese request to confront the collapse that the Lebanese state is suffering from, but was the result of an American assessment that the siege imposed with the aim of subduing the resistance in it did not lead to the desired result,” an article noted this week.

What does this convoluted word salad mean? It means that Iran and Hezbollah waited as the US used sanctions to isolate the Syrian regime. The sanctions had an affect of apparently harming the Lebanese economy as well. Lebanon is in economic free fall. Iran then engineered to send gas via Syria to Lebanon to showcase how it is helping Lebanon.

But what was the assessment? Iran sees how it has engineered a collapse in Lebanon. “As a result of this siege, the foundations of the Lebanese state collapsed and its tools weakened, while the resistance succeeded in adapting to this reality to build on it in an integrated project that would bring the Lebanese state out of dependence on the tools of American power imposed on it.”

This means Iran handed the US a catch-22. The goal: Get the US to rely on Syria, a regime allied with Iran. At the same time the goal was to reduce US influence in Lebanon. The US has supported the Lebanese armed forces in the past and intervened in Lebanon in the 1980s.

Iran’s Tasnim news also spells out the Tehran goal. “In the first stage, as mentioned, the resistance prevented the realization of the American goals by refusing to fall into the trap of the enemy, despite all the pain and suffering that the people endured.

In the second stage, with a strategic decision to break the siege and cross the political vacuum towards an economic transformation with the help of the East, it dealt a fatal blow to the enemy. The first action of the resistance in this regard was the import of fuel from Iran and the suggestion that Iranian and Eastern companies may take over the operation of extracting energy in Lebanon.” Iran’s goal is to move Lebanon further into Iran’s clutches and also position it closer to an Iran-China economic pact that has emerged in the last year.

Iran sees Lebanon as a section of the chessboard and it wants to remove US pieces from that area. It cannot use military means, so it will use economic means. This comes in the context of the US leaving Afghanistan. Iran believes that with a bit of a push, the US will fold up its cards in many regions. Lebanon is one such region.

摩洛哥打擊伊斯蘭主義者的方法

摩洛哥公民認為伊斯蘭主義者沒有為國家和公民增加價值。

通過HAKIM ARIF

2021 年 9 月 13 日 21:47

摩洛哥國王穆罕默德六世於 2017 年抵達巴黎愛麗舍宮。

（圖片來源：PHILIPPE WOJAZER/REUTERS）

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在埃及，一場流行的反革命和軍隊對伊斯蘭政府的干預才將他們趕出去。

在突尼斯，總統不得不於 7 月 25 日進行干預，以凍結復興黨控制的議會，並解散政府。

在摩洛哥，這項任務留給了民主進程。伊斯蘭主義者來到投票站，他們管理政府的權利被載入憲法。他們有兩個立法機構，但由於缺乏絕對多數，他們不得不與其他政黨結盟。

由公民決定他們是否可以繼續或離開。他們認為伊斯蘭主義者沒有為國家和公民增加價值。他們因做出不受歡迎的決定和傲慢而受到批評。此外，這是所有伊斯蘭主義者的共同特徵。

在大流行危機中，摩洛哥同時組織了立法、地區和市政三場選舉。民主進程不應改變，事實證明這一選擇是相關的。參與率達到50.35%（2016年為42%），南方省份更高，達到60%以上。

這些選舉中的利害關係是最重要的。政府由來自正義與發展黨的伊斯蘭主義者領導的聯盟領導，該聯盟在議會第一院擁有 125 個席位。它的業務可以追溯到 2011 年，當時正值阿拉伯之春運動的高峰期。PJD雖然既沒有發起也沒有參與過這場運動的準備，卻乘著這股浪潮，自稱是國家的“救世主”，唯一可能的選擇。這種論點將在政府首腦黨的兩屆任期內重複出現。

然而，從結果來看，選民在9月8日的選舉中並沒有使用這個標準。因此，對黨進行了非常嚴厲的製裁。它只有12名議員。就連身為政府首腦的秘書長也無法保住自己的席位。他的大臣們也沒有。

在 al-Foua 和 Kefraya 村莊外可以看到來自 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham 的伊斯蘭叛亂分子（圖片來源：KHALIL ASHAWI / REUTERS）

在這些選舉中獲勝的政黨是由現任政府農業和農村發展部長 Aziz Akhannouch 領導的民族獨立聯盟（RNI，中間派）。他的政黨贏得了97個席位。其次是真實性和現代性黨（82）和伊斯蒂克拉爾黨（78）。Union Socialiste des Forces Populaires Socialist以35個席位遠遠落後。這些是最重要的政黨；其他席位分佈在其他幾個陣型中。

議會的結構因此完全改變。自 2011 年以來一直在眾議院占主導地位的政黨 PJD 成為按規模計算的第八個政黨。

雖然眾議院的簡單多數需要 198 名代表，但舒適的多數仍被認為是 210 至 220 名代表。這為 RNI 留下了很大的迴旋餘地，因為根據憲法，它有責任組建未來的政府。

除其他外，這些選舉的結果是由於動員了年輕人。大多數競選活動都在社交媒體上進行，這表明政治運作方式發生了根本變化。年輕人不遵守 PJD 的話語，這些話語側重於道德考慮，而這些伊斯蘭主義者並不尊重這一點。多起不道德或挪用公款的案件使該黨名譽掃地。

年輕人的關注點集中在就業、健康、公立學校和經濟機會上，他們十年未見。另一方面，他們能夠觀察到 RNI（貿易、工業、新技術和金融）的部長們所做的工作，他們是第一個抗擊大流行及其經濟和社會影響的前線。

在組織方面，摩洛哥和外國觀察員一致表示投票是在正常條件下進行的。

事實上，在投票站關閉後不久，美國駐拉巴特大使館就對三重投票的成功表示祝賀。

“美國大使館祝賀摩洛哥王國今天成功舉行選舉。我們對民主進程的共同承諾加強了我們 200 年的合作夥伴關係，”該代表在其 Twitter 賬戶上寫道。

The Moroccan method to combat Islamists

The Moroccan citizens decided that the Islamists did not add value to the country and to the citizens.

By HAKIM ARIF

SEPTEMBER 13, 2021 21:47

MOROCCO’S KING MOHAMMED VI arrives at Élysée Palace in Paris during 2017.

(photo credit: PHILIPPE WOJAZER/REUTERS)

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In Egypt, it took a popular counterrevolution and the intervention of the army against the Islamist government to drive them out.

In Tunisia, the president had to intervene on July 25 to freeze the parliament, which the Ennahda Party controlled, and dissolve the government.

In Morocco, the task has been left to the democratic process. Islamists arrived at the polls and their right to run government is enshrined in the constitution. They had two legislatures, but, lacking an absolute majority, they had to rule in an alliance with other parties.

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It is up to the citizens to decide whether they can continue or leave. They decided that the Islamists did not add value to the country and to the citizens. They are criticized for making unpopular decisions and being arrogant. This is, moreover, a common feature to all Islamists.

In the midst of a pandemic crisis,

Morocco

organized three elections at the same time, legislative, regional and municipal. The democratic process should not be changed, and this choice proved to be relevant. The participation rate reached 50.35% (42% in 2016), and was even higher in the southern provinces, where it was above 60%.

What was at stake in these elections was of the utmost importance. The government was led by a coalition led by Islamists from the Justice and Development Party, which had 125 seats in the first chamber of parliament. Its arrival in business dates back to 2011, at the height of the movement called the Arab Spring. Although having neither initiated nor participated in the preparation of this movement, the PJD has ridden this wave to propose itself as the “savior” of the country, the only possible alternative. This is an argument that will be repeated during the two terms of the party at the head of government.

However, judging by the results, voters did not use this criterion in the September 8 election. Hence the very severe sanction imposed on the party. It got only 12 MPs. Even the secretary-general, who is the head of government, could not save his seat. Neither did his ministers.

Islamist rebels from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are seen outside the villages of al-Foua and Kefraya (credit: KHALIL ASHAWI / REUTERS)

The party that emerged as the winner in these elections is the Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI, centrist) led by Aziz Akhannouch, minister of agriculture and rural development in the current government. His party won 97 seats. It is followed by the Authenticity and Modernity Party (82) and the Istiqlal Party (78). The Union Socialiste des Forces Populaires Socialist comes far behind with 35 seats. These are the most important parties; the other seats are distributed among several other formations.

The configuration of parliament is thus completely changed. PJD, the party that has dominated the House of Representatives since 2011, becomes the eighth party by size.

While the simple majority in the House of Representatives requires 198 deputies, a comfortable majority is nevertheless considered to be between 210 and 220 deputies. This leaves a great deal of leeway for the RNI, given that according to the constitution it is its responsibility to constitute the future government.

The results of these elections are due, among other things, to the mobilization of young people. Most of the electoral campaign took place on social media, which indicates a radical change in the way politics are done. Young people did not adhere to the discourse of the PJD, which focused on moral considerations, which these same Islamists did not respect. Several cases of immorality or embezzlement of public funds have discredited the party.

The concerns of the young people focused on jobs, health, public schooling and economic opportunities, and they had seen nothing coming for 10 years. On the other hand, they were able to observe the work carried out by the ministers of the RNI (trade, industry, new technologies and finance), who were the first at the front against the pandemic and its economic and social effects.

On the organizational side, Moroccan and foreign observers were unanimous in saying that the ballot took place under normal conditions.

In fact, shortly after the polling stations closed, the United States Embassy in Rabat expressed its congratulations on the success of the triple ballot.

“The United States Embassy congratulates the Kingdom of Morocco for successfully holding elections today. Our shared commitment to democratic processes strengthens our 200-year partnership,” wrote the representation on its Twitter account.

美國轟炸伊拉克-敘利亞邊境附近的民兵基地-報告

通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF

2021 年 9 月 14 日 23:30

據 Al-Arabiya 報導，美國陸軍周二晚轟炸了伊拉克和敘利亞邊境的民兵基地。

據報導，爆炸襲擊了位於伊拉克和敘利亞邊境地帶的民兵總部之一。

US bombing militia sites near the Iraqi-Syrian border - report

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 23:30

The United States Army bombed militia sites on the border between Iraq and Syria on Tuesday night, Al-Arabiya reported.

The bombing reportedly targeted one of the headquarters of the militias located on the border strip between Iraq and Syria.