Eliminating Noise and Using Patience to Win DFS Tournaments

Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

内容由Fantasy Football提供。所有播客内容（包括剧集、图形和播客描述）均由 Fantasy Football 或其播客平台合作伙伴直接上传和提供。如果您认为有人在未经您许可的情况下使用您的受版权保护的作品，您可以按照此处概述的流程进行操作https://zh.player.fm/legal。

2+ y ago 27:46

MP3•单集首页

Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:
-why simple models beat human beings at prediction
-the danger of the "illusion of validity"
-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections
-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases
-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel
-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments
-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown
-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quickly
For a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/