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2021.12.30 國際新聞導讀-美伊核武談判俄羅斯怎麼看?美國工作簽證處理緩慢有傷美國經濟、俄羅斯關閉人權中心、黎巴嫩總統奧恩指責真主黨阻撓國家前進

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2021.12.30 國際新聞導讀-美伊核武談判俄羅斯怎麼看?美國工作簽證處理緩慢有傷美國經濟、俄羅斯關閉人權中心、黎巴嫩總統奧恩指責真主黨阻撓國家前進

美國簽證處理積壓危及外國人的生計

眾議員黛博拉羅斯表示,簽證處理的行政變更將曾經需要不到 30 分鐘的事情變成了 11 個月到兩年的等待。

通過路透

美國公民和移民服務機構的簽證處理積壓使外國工作簽證持有者的配偶難以工作和養家糊口。

積壓還威脅到這些居民為美國經濟貢獻的 75 億美元,其中許多人是科技工作者的配偶。

週二,代表北卡羅來納州第二國會選區的民主黨眾議員黛博拉·羅斯致信國土安全部部長亞歷杭德羅·馬約卡斯和美國公民和移民服務局局長烏爾·門多薩·賈杜,尋求幫助。

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羅斯在信中寫道:“處理延誤使他們的家人沒有第二份收入,迫使他們動用儲蓄、出售房屋並採取其他嚴厲措施來維持生計。”

羅斯將積壓歸咎於兩個不同的問題:特朗普政府為 L-2 和 H-4 簽證申請人制定的COVID-19 限制和要求。這兩種類型的申請都允許外國工作簽證持有人的配偶進入美國。

抗議者聚集在肯尼迪機場 4 號航站樓外,反對美國總統唐納德特朗普於 2017 年 1 月 28 日在美國紐約市皇后區提出的移民禁令(圖片來源:REUTERS)

任何一個申請人都可以申請就業授權文件或 EAD,如果獲得批准,則可以工作。

羅斯說,絕大多數 H-4 和 L-2 申請人是受過高等教育的女性,她們經常在美國各地的 STEM 或科學、技術、工程和數學等領域工作。

特朗普政府要求提交 H-4 和 L-2 表格的配偶提交生物識別篩查,要求他們親自出庭。在約會時,配偶必須填寫表格,列出他們的年齡、出生日期、性別、眼睛和頭髮的顏色和體重。他們還必須按指紋並拍照。

羅斯說,簽證處理的行政變化將曾經只需不到 30 分鐘的事情變成了 11 個月到兩年的等待。她補充說,配偶不得在需要更新前六個月以上提交表格。

由於法院和解,這些新要求已暫停至 2023 年。如果申請人按時申請延期,該機構還同意將其就業許可延長 180 天。

“我們敦促 USCIS 與美國海關和邊境保護局合作,迅速實施這些監管改革,以最大限度地減輕移民婦女的負擔,”羅斯寫道。“仔細閱讀和解協議會發現,對於大多數在等待工作許可延期的配偶來說,這個和解協議幾乎沒有任何緩解作用。”

她說,180 天的延期與有效身份以及允許非移民延長逗留時間或更改非移民身份的另一種表格的積壓有關。

羅斯表示,在特朗普政府之前,主要申請人和附屬申請人會在 15 天內同時審查和決定。在她的信中,她要求官員們重新開始這樣做,並包括綠卡申請。

“我們還敦促 USCIS 迅速將加急處理擴展到其他簽證類別,包括 H-4 和 L-2 簽證以及 EAD,”羅斯說。“雖然國會最近批准了這一擴展,但 USCIS 尚未向家屬提供此選項。”

她建議使用該機構收取的 1,400 美元處理費來支付運營費用,並補充說,擴大加急處理(雇主可以要求加快其僱員的申請)也有助於籌集資金來支付工作費用。

US visa processing backlog risks livelihoods of foreign nationals

Rep. Deborah Ross said administrative changes to visa processing turned something that once took less than 30 minutes into an 11-month to two-year wait.

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 17:06

Social media video grab of passengers queuing at the immigration counter at Dulles International Airport in Virginia

(photo credit: LUKE MONTGOMERY/COURTESY/SOCIAL MEDIA/VIA REUTERS)

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A visa processing backlog at the US Citizenship and Immigration Services agency is making it difficult for spouses of foreign-national work-visa holders to work and provide for their families.

The backlog also threatens the $7.5 billion these residents, many of whom are spouses of tech workers, contribute to the US economy.

On Tuesday, US Rep. Deborah Ross, a Democrat who represents North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, authored a letter to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Ur Mendoza Jaddou asking for help.

“Processing delays have left their families without a second income, forcing them to dip into their savings, sell their homes, and take other drastic measures to stay on their feet,” Ross wrote in the letter.

Ross blamed two separate issues for creating the backlog: COVID-19 restrictions and requirements created under the Trump administration for L-2 and H-4 visa applicants. Both types of applications allow a spouse of a foreign-national work-visa holder to enter the United States.

Protesters gather outside Terminal 4 at JFK airport in opposition to U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed ban on immigration in Queens, New York City, US, January 28, 2017 (credit: REUTERS)

Either applicant can apply for employment authorization documents, or EADs, and if granted be allowed to work.

Ross said the vast majority of H-4 and L-2 applicants are highly educated women often working in STEM, or science, technology, engineering and math, fields around the United States.

The Trump administration required spouses submitting H-4 and L-2 forms to submit to biometric screenings that require them to appear in person. At the appointment, the spouse must fill out forms listing their age, date of birth, gender, eye and hair color and weight. They must also be fingerprinted and have photographs taken.

Ross said the administrative changes to visa processing turned something that once took less than 30 minutes into an 11-month to two-year wait. She added that the spouses are not allowed to submit the forms more than six months in advance of needing their renewal.

Those new requirements have been suspended through 2023 due to a court settlement. The agency also agreed to extend an applicant’s employment authorization by 180 days if they filed for an extension on time.

“We urge USCIS to work with US Customs and Border Protection to implement these regulatory changes expeditiously in order to maximize relief for immigrant women,” Ross wrote. “A careful reading of the settlement reveals that for most spouses stuck waiting for their work authorization extension, this settlement offers little relief.”

She said the 180-day extension is tied to valid status and a backlog of another form that allows nonimmigrants to extend their stay or change their non-immigration status.

Ross said before the Trump administration primary and dependent applicants were simultaneously reviewed and decided within 15 days. In her letter, she requested officials begin doing that again and include green card applications.

“We also urge USCIS to quickly expand premium processing to additional visa categories including H-4 and L-2 visas and EADs,” Ross said. “While Congress recently authorized this expansion, USCIS has not yet made this option available to dependents.”

She suggested using the $1,400 processing fees the agency collects to pay for operational expenses and added that expanding premium processing, in which an employer can request that his employee’s application be expedited, could also help raise funds to pay for the work.

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俄羅斯關閉著名人權組織

聯合國人權辦公室表示,俄羅斯法院已決定“解散俄羅斯最受尊敬的兩個人權組織,並進一步削弱該國日益萎縮的人權社區”。

通過路透

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 15:24

2019 年 6 月 21 日,紀念人權中心車臣辦事處負責人 Oyub Titiev 在俄羅斯車臣阿爾貢鎮的流放地外受到歡迎。

(圖片來源:路透社/SAID TSARNAYEV)

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俄羅斯紀念人權中心於週三被莫斯科法院勒令關閉,此前一天,其姊妹組織——俄羅斯最古老的人權組織——被迫關閉。

人權中心保留了一份被歸類為政治犯的個人名單,其中包括克里姆林宮評論家阿列克謝·納瓦爾尼( Alexei Navalny)

這份名單包括耶和華見證人和穆斯林被判犯有恐怖主義罪,紀念說他們是“由於他們的宗教信仰而受到基於捏造證據的未經證實的指控”的受害者。

“波佐!波佐!” (恥辱!恥辱!)紀念支持者在場外高呼,包裹著 -12 攝氏度(10 華氏度)的溫度。

日內瓦聯合國人權辦公室表示,俄羅斯法院已決定“解散俄羅斯最受尊敬的兩個人權組織,進一步削弱該國日益萎縮的人權社區”。

“我們敦促俄羅斯當局保護和支持致力於在整個俄羅斯聯邦推進人權的人和組織,”它補充說。

2019 年 6 月 21 日,紀念人權中心車臣辦事處負責人 Oyub Titiev 獲釋後,在俄羅斯車臣阿爾貢鎮的流放地外與親屬交談。(圖片來源:REUTERS) /SAID TSARNAYEV)

國家檢察官曾表示,該中心的工作為恐怖主義和極端主義辯護,但它否認了這一點。

他們還指責它沒有系統地將其內容標記為“外國代理人”——這是 2014 年給出的帶有貶義蘇聯時代內涵的官方名稱。

克里姆林宮沒有立即發表評論,稱它不會干預法庭裁決。

該中心在以穆斯林為主的北高加索地區運營著一個辦事處網絡,在那裡記錄了車臣等地的侵犯人權行為,並為受害者提供了法律和實際幫助。

除非中心贏得上訴,否則這些辦公室將不得不關閉。

該中心的執行主任安娜·多布羅沃爾斯卡婭 (Anna Dobrovolskaya) 在法庭外表示,當局似乎已著手清除所有人權組織,從紀念館開始。

'太尷尬'

“我們不能說這對我們來說是一個完全的驚喜,”她說。

“有一種感覺,(維權工作的)空間正在縮小。很多人看到這些事件時會非常沮喪,很多人會寫中世紀和黑暗時代的開始。”

她表示,這項裁決將對其他維權人士產生寒蟬效應。“顯然我們的工作變得太尷尬了,打擾了某人。”

與最高法院週二決定關閉以記錄和保持斯大林時代罪行記憶而聞名的紀念國際一樣,這項裁決受到了國際人權組織的譴責。

“在兩天內,俄羅斯法院對俄羅斯的人權運動進行了二分之一的打擊,”總部位於紐約的人權觀察組織的雷切爾·丹伯 (Rachel Denber) 發推文說。

“在蘇聯時代結束後幾乎整整 30 年,當局正在設定新的、壓制性的界限,限制對過去的言論和對當今俄羅斯的虐待行為的言論和行為。”

克里姆林宮的主要批評者納瓦爾尼被判入獄,他的運動被禁止,他的許多同夥被迫逃離。莫斯科表示,這只是在挫敗極端主義並保護俄羅斯免受外國惡意影響。

批評人士說,自 1999 年以來一直擔任總統或總理的弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)正在將時間倒流到蘇聯時代,當時所有異議都被鎮壓了。

紀念館建於蘇聯的最後幾年,最初調查蘇聯時期的罪行,但後來也開始調查現代虐待行為。

法庭外的一位支持者只透露了自己的名字葉戈爾,他說紀念人權中心的裁決對俄羅斯人民來說“令人震驚”。

“這是一個真正有用的組織,捍衛因信念而受到迫害的無辜者的權利,”他說。

“需要有反對派,不同觀點的人。這就是政治競爭的原則。”

Russia shuts down prominent human rights organization

The UN human rights office said Russian courts had decided to 'dissolve two of Russia’s most respected human rights groups and further weaken the country’s dwindling human rights community.'

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 15:24

Oyub Titiev, the head of the Chechen office of the Memorial Human Rights Centre, is welcomed after his release, outside of a penal colony settlement, in the town of Argun, in Chechnya, Russia, June 21, 2019.

(photo credit: REUTERS/SAID TSARNAYEV)

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Russia's Memorial Human Rights Centre was ordered to shut by a Moscow court on Wednesday, a day after its sister organization - Russia's oldest human rights group - was forced to close.

The Human Rights Centre keeps a running list of individuals it classifies as political prisoners, including Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

The list includes Jehovah's Witnesses and Muslims convicted of terrorism who Memorial says were victims of "unproven charges based on fabricated evidence because of their religious affiliation."

"Pozor! Pozor!" (Shame! Shame!) Memorial supporters chanted outside the court, wrapped up against a temperature of -12 degrees Celsius (10 Fahrenheit).

The UN human rights office in Geneva said Russian courts had decided to "dissolve two of Russia’s most respected human rights groups and further weaken the country’s dwindling human rights community."

"We urge the Russian authorities to protect and support people and organizations that work to advance human rights across the Russian Federation," it added.

Oyub Titiev, the head of the Chechen office of the Memorial Human Rights Centre, talks with relatives after his release, outside of a penal colony settlement, in the town of Argun, in Chechnya, Russia, June 21, 2019. (credit: REUTERS/SAID TSARNAYEV)

State prosecutors had said the Centre's work justified terrorism and extremism, something it denied.

They had also accused it of failing to systematically label its content as that of a "foreign agent" - an official designation carrying pejorative Soviet-era connotations that it was given in 2014.

There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin, which says it does not interfere in court decisions.

The Centre operates a network of offices across the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus region, where it has documented rights abuses in places such as Chechnya and provided legal and practical help to victims.

Those offices will have to be shut unless the Centre wins an appeal.

Anna Dobrovolskaya, the Centre's executive director, said outside the court that the authorities appeared set on purging all human rights groups, starting with Memorial.

'TOO AWKWARD'

"We can't say this was a complete surprise for us," she said.

"There was a feeling that the space (for rights work) is shrinking. Many people will be really upset when they see these events, and many people will write about the onset of medieval and dark times."

She said the ruling would have a chilling effect on other rights activists. "Obviously our work had become too awkward, and bothered someone."

The ruling, like the Supreme Court's decision on Tuesday to shut down Memorial International, famous for chronicling and keeping alive the memory of Stalin-era crimes, was condemned by international rights groups.

"In two days, Russia's courts delivered a one-two punch to Russia's human rights movement," tweeted Rachel Denber of New York-based Human Rights Watch.

"Almost exactly 30 years after the end of the Soviet era, authorities are setting new, repressive boundaries on what can be said about the past and what can be said and done about abuse in today’s Russia."

The legal onslaught capped a year in which Navalny, the Kremlin's leading critic, was jailed, his movement banned and many of his associates forced to flee. Moscow says it is simply thwarting extremism and shielding Russia from malign foreign influence.

Critics say Vladimir Putin, in power as president or prime minister since 1999, and at odds with the West on everything from Ukraine to Syria, is turning back the clock to the Soviet era, when all dissent was crushed.

Memorial was established in the final years of the Soviet Union and initially investigated the crimes of the Soviet period, but later began inquiring into modern-day abuses too.

One supporter outside the court, who only gave his first name, Yegor, said the Memorial Human Rights Centre ruling was "appalling" for the Russian people.

"It was a genuinely useful organization that defended the rights of innocent people who were being persecuted for their convictions," he said.

"There needs to be an opposition, people with different views. That's what the principles of political competition are about."

俄羅斯的“如果伊朗擁有重要核材料怎麼辦”時刻——分析

烏里揚諾夫殘酷的誠實揭示了為什麼將伊朗令人生畏。

作者:尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 13:02

更新時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 19:46

2021 年 11 月 29 日,在奧地利維也納舉行的聯合全面行動計劃 (JCPOA) 會議後,俄羅斯國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 州長米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫 (Mikhail Ulyanov) 向媒體通報了情況。

(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)

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外交官時不時地滑倒,說出他們的真實想法,並向全世界揭示一些大多數人寧願忽視的令人不快的真相。

週二晚些時候,俄羅斯常駐維也納國際組織代表米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫(Mikhail Ulyanov)在接受《外交政策》出版物採訪時就是這樣做的。

他表示,現在不是用更大壓力威脅伊朗的時候,因為“即使他們生產了大量核材料,那又怎樣。沒有彈頭就不能使用,而伊朗人沒有彈頭。”

拒絕在維也納會談中設定一些最後期限,他補充說:“這種緊迫感有點誇大其詞。是的,這很緊急,但讓我們謹慎行事;讓我們[不]設置人為的最後期限。”

“那麼”如果伊朗生產大量核材料會怎樣——真的嗎?

伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西本月早些時候訪問了布什爾核電站。(來源:官方總統網站/路透社)

所以世界上沒有人應該擔心下週或下個月伊斯蘭共和國是否會因為尚未解決如何在導彈上運載核武器的問題而躍升到90%的武器化水平?

誠然,幾乎所有核專家都承認,德黑蘭在引爆和導彈發射領域有工作要做。但對這需要多長時間(從六個月到兩年不等)的估計都是基於一種充滿希望的假設,即當 IAEA 自 2015 年以來一直在監測其宣布的設施時,該政權在這些領域沒有秘密推進太多。

朝鮮近年來震驚了世界,“突然”掌握了專家認為需要幾年才能確定的各種核技能。

現在平壤不僅擁有一顆核彈,而且擁有估計多達數十顆核彈的核武庫。

此外,世界將如此多的精力集中在監測鈾濃縮的全部原因是主要核武器的過程,濃縮是最容易監測的,因為它需要具有數千台離心機的大型設施。

處理引爆和交付問題的工作更容易隱藏,當然要等到核試驗——而且一旦進行了試驗,就認為一個國家已經跨越了核門檻。

烏里揚諾夫所說的關鍵是,即使俄羅斯反對伊朗獲得核武器,它也不會像美國那樣不安,更不用說以色列了。

它願意冒險看到阿亞圖拉比現在更接近炸彈,而不會給他們施加真正的壓力來達成協議。

為什麼美國和歐盟要推動伊朗“在幾週內而不是幾個月內”達成協議?

因為伊朗的核鈾濃縮高達 60%,並且可能在一個月或更短的時間內躍升至 90% 的武器化濃縮。

並不是所有的核問題都必須在幾週內解決。相反,德黑蘭向前推進的核進程必須在這段時間內停止,以避免該政權帶來新的風險。

俄羅斯不是伊朗問題最嚴重的國家——那就是中國。

莫斯科至少幫助伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊在 10 月至 11 月期間向其施壓,讓其重返核談判,並公開表示,在中斷幾個月後,現在是重啟談判的“好時機”。

北京幾乎完全將當前的核僵局歸咎於美國對伊朗的製裁,因為它對特朗普和拜登政府的製裁感到憤怒,並希望在各個領域與美國的製裁作鬥爭。

所有這些都讓人們認為,美國唯一需要做的就是堅持對伊朗的製裁。

烏里揚諾夫的“那又怎樣”的時刻清楚地表明這還不夠。

只要俄羅斯和中國準備好容忍伊朗達到目前甚至更高的先進核水平,美國的壓力,即使有歐盟的加入,也不足以達成改進的 JCPOA 核協議。

美國的製裁壓力,加上北京、莫斯科和哈梅內伊都認為可信的對伊朗的可行的美國或以色列軍事、秘密或網絡威脅,可能是解決該協議漏洞的唯一方法。

由於這種威脅可能不會出現,更有可能的情況是直接返回 JCPOA、返回稍差的版本,或者某種至少阻止伊朗向前進展的臨時協議。

但批評美國對伊朗政策的人——以及奧巴馬、特朗普和拜登政府有很多值得批評的地方​​——需要承認,如果沒有俄羅斯和中國的支持,即使華盛頓試圖在外交和製裁上堅持這一立場,JCPOA 也會神奇地更好不會突然實現。

在現階段的許多方面,通往德黑蘭的道路是通過莫斯科和北京,就像通過華盛頓一樣。

Russia’s 'so what if Iran has significant nuke material' moment - analysis

Ulyanov's brutal honesty reveals why checkmating Iran is daunting.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 13:02

Updated: DECEMBER 29, 2021 19:46

Russia's Governor to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mikhail Ulyanov briefs the media after a meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Vienna, Austria, November 29, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)

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Every now and then diplomats slip, say what they really think, and reveal to the whole world some inconvenient truths that most would rather ignore.

Late Tuesday, Russia’s Permanent Representative to Vienna-based International Organizations Mikhail Ulyanov did just that in an interview with the publication Foreign Policy.

He remarked that now is not the time to threaten Iran with greater pressure because “even if they produce a significant amount of nuclear material, so what. It cannot be used without a warhead, and the Iranians do not have warheads.”

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Rejecting the setting up of some deadlines at the Vienna talks, he added: “This sense of urgency is a little bit exaggerated. Yes, it’s urgent, but let’s be prudent; let’s [not] set up artificial deadlines.”

“So what” if Iran produces a significant amount of nuclear material – really?

IRANIAN PRESIDENT Ebrahim Raisi visits the Bushehr nuclear power plant earlier this month. (credit: OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL WEBSITE / REUTERS)

So no one in the world should worry if next week or next month the Islamic Republic jumps to the 90% weaponized level because it has not yet solved the problem of how to deliver a nuclear weapon on a missile?

True, pretty much all nuclear experts acknowledge that Tehran has work to do in the areas of detonation and missile delivery. But the estimates for how long that would take – from six months to two years – are all guesses on the hopeful assumption that the regime has not advanced much in those areas clandestinely while the IAEA has been monitoring its declared facilities since 2015.

NORTH KOREA shocked the world in recent years, “suddenly” mastering a variety of nuclear skills that experts believed would take it several more years to nail down.

Now Pyongyang does not just have one nuclear bomb, but a nuclear arsenal estimated to include up to dozens of bombs.

Also, the whole reason the world has focused so much energy on monitoring uranium enrichment is that of the major nuclear weapons’ processes, enrichment is the easiest to monitor because it requires large facilities with thousands of centrifuges.

Working on the detonation and delivery issues is easier to hide, certainly until a nuclear test – and once a test has been performed, a country is considered to have crossed the nuclear threshold.

What is crucial about what Ulyanov said is that even if Russia opposes Iran getting a nuclear weapon, it is not as disturbed to the same degree as the US, let alone Israel.

It is willing to risk seeing the ayatollahs getting closer to a bomb than they are now without putting real pressure on them to cut a deal.

Why are the US and the EU pushing for the Islamic Republic to cut a deal “within weeks, not months”?

Because Iran is up to 60% nuclear uranium enrichment and could jump to 90% weaponized enrichment in a month or a bit less.

It is not that all nuclear issues must be resolved within weeks. Rather, it is that Tehran’s forward nuclear progress must be halted within that period to avoid a new level of risk from the regime.

RUSSIA is not the most problematic country concerning Iran – that would be China.

Moscow at least helped pressure Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into returning to the nuclear talks in the October-November period, publicly saying it was “high time” that talks be renewed after a several-month hiatus.

Beijing almost entirely blames US sanctions against Iran for the current nuclear standoff because it is angry at both the Trump and Biden administrations over sanctions, and wants to fight American sanctions in every arena.

All of this blows open the argument that the only thing the US needs to do is hold the line with its sanctions against Iran.

Ulyanov’s “so what” moment makes it clear that will not be enough.

As long as Russia and China are ready to tolerate Iran at its current advanced nuclear levels and even beyond, American pressure, even with the EU on board, will be insufficient to get an improved JCPOA nuclear deal.

A mix of US sanction pressure along with a viable US or Israeli military, covert or cyber threat against Iran that Beijing, Moscow and Khamenei all find believable, is likely the only way to fix the deal’s holes.

Since such a threat is likely not forthcoming, the more likely scenarios are a straight return to the JCPOA, a return to a slightly worse version of it, or some kind of interim deal that at least stops Iran’s forward progress.

But critics of US policy on Iran – and there is much to criticize in the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations – need to admit that without Russian and Chinese backing, even if Washington tries to hold the line diplomatically and with sanctions, a magically better JCPOA will not suddenly materialize.

In many ways at this stage, the road to Tehran is through Moscow and Beijing as much as through Washington.

黎巴嫩的奧恩對真主黨繼續阻撓內閣表示憤怒

總統說,必須結束“不合理、蓄意和系統性的封鎖,這種封鎖會瓦解國家並將其推向滅亡”。

通過TZVI JOFFRE

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 28 日 09:02

更新時間: 2021 年 12 月 28 日 14:49

Dalati Nohra 於 2021 年 9 月 24 日在黎巴嫩巴卜達通過錄製的視頻信息向聯合國大會發表講話時,在這張講義圖片中可以看到黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩。

(照片來源:DALATI NOHRA/Handout via REUTERS)

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黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩 (Michel Aoun) 週一在一次演講中表示憤怒,稱由於真主黨要求在他們同意召開內閣會議之前將塔雷克·比塔爾法官從貝魯特港爆炸案中撤職,該國內閣已經兩個多月沒有開會。

在被暫停一個月後,本月早些時候,在貝魯特上訴法院駁回了前公共工程部長優素福費尼亞諾斯的上訴後,比塔爾恢復了對貝魯特港爆炸事件的調查,後者已被法官指控並傳喚進行訊問。然而,週四,由於 Bitar 傳喚進行調查的前部長提起訴訟,調查第四次停止。

奧恩週一開始講話時強調,“有必要以更清晰的方式說話,因為風險正在增加並威脅到國家的統一——而我們在該地區目睹的準備工作使問題變得更加明顯,”他說。黎巴嫩國家通訊社(NNA)。他沒有具體說明他指的是哪些區域籌備工作。

被視為真主黨盟友的黎巴嫩總統還提到了該恐怖組織在“保衛國家”方面的作用,稱雖然國防需要軍隊、人民和真主黨之間的合作,但“國家獨自製定國防戰略並關注它的實施。”

7 月 13 日,一名婦女在去年貝魯特港口爆炸現場的瓦礫上行走(圖片來源:MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

奧恩要求結束“不合理的、蓄意的和系統的封鎖,這種封鎖會瓦解國家並將其推向滅亡”。

黎巴嫩總統提到了一些阻礙該國政府運作的問題,因為該國正遭受不斷惡化的經濟危機,包括與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的談判延遲以及內閣會議被阻。他沒有具體點名真主黨或任何其他方對任何問題負責。

截至週一上午,黎巴嫩鎊兌美元匯率約為 27,400 LBP。

對於內閣被堵,奧恩質疑為什麼被堵,強調不能就屬於司法權的事情做出決定。

“不是明天——今天內閣必須開會並解決部長會議的問題,”奧恩說。“部長理事會根據哪條法律、哪條邏輯、哪部憲法被要求做出不屬於其權力範圍的決定,並在不代表與協議相關分歧的問題上凍結其行動?”

總統還呼籲將黎巴嫩的政府體制改革為基於擴大行政和財政權力下放的文明國家。

Aoun 還提到了最近與海灣國家的緊張局勢,當時的信息部長 George Kordahi 似乎支持伊朗支持的胡塞叛軍。“我熱衷於與阿拉伯國家建立最好的關係,尤其是與海灣國家的關係,我問:‘拉緊與這些國家的關係並干涉與我們無關的事務的原因是什麼?” 據 NNA 報導,他說。

奧恩說:“我不想與任何人爭吵,不與人爭吵,也不與政黨爭吵,也不想破壞任何教派的團結。” “然而,我們必須坦率:時間是致命的,我不會接受在國家崩潰和人民窒息的情況下默默地看著。我將繼續努力,直到我的總統任期的最後一天和總統任期的最後一天。我的生命來防止這種情況發生。”

黎巴嫩總統強調,“國家是通過尊重法律建立起來的,而不是通過超越權威,也不是通過一個權威對另一個權威的統治。國家同時意味著法律和穩定,沒有人可以給黎巴嫩人選擇在兩件事之一之間。”

本月早些時候,黎巴嫩媒體報導稱,總理納吉布·米卡蒂 (Najib Mikati)不願召開內閣會議,因為擔心這可能會破壞該國的穩定,尤其是在“令人擔憂的安全信息”以及安全局勢可能受到動搖的情況下本月早些時候在巴勒斯坦難民營對哈馬斯的葬禮開槍。

最近幾個月,真主黨強烈反對Bitar 繼續調查。由於被法官指控的官員提出的偏見指控,此案已多次暫停。

被推薦

最近幾個月,真主黨及其盟友對 Bitar 進行了暗示和明確的威脅,聲稱調查受到外國和政治壓力的影響。

10 月,來自真主黨和馬拉達運動的消息人士告訴黎巴嫩 Al-Jadeed 電視新聞,比塔爾準備直接指責真主黨對爆炸負責。消息人士補充說,如果他不被撤職,他們將離開政府。

Lebanon's Aoun expresses outrage as Hezbollah continues to block cabinet

"Unjustified, deliberate and systematic blockage which dismantles the state and drives it to its demise" must be ended, the president said.

By TZVI JOFFRE

Published: DECEMBER 28, 2021 09:02

Updated: DECEMBER 28, 2021 14:49

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun is seen in this handout picture released by Dalati Nohra on September 24, 2021, while addressing the United Nations General Assembly via a recorded video message, in Baabda, Lebanon.

(photo credit: DALATI NOHRA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

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Lebanese President Michel Aoun expressed outrage in a speech on Monday that the country's cabinet has not met for over two months due to demands by Hezbollah for Judge Tarek Bitar to be removed from the Beirut Port blast case before they agree to a cabinet meeting.

After being halted for a month, Bitar resumed his investigation into the Beirut Port blast earlier this month after the Beirut Court of Appeals rejected an appeal by former Public Works Minister Youssef Fenianos, who had been charged and summoned for questioning by the judge. However, on Thursday the investigation was halted for a fourth time due to a lawsuit by ex-ministers who Bitar had summoned for investigation.

Aoun started his speech on Monday by stressing that it has become necessary to "speak in a clearer manner because the risks are growing and threatening the nation’s unity – and the preparations we are witnessing in the region make the problems all the more obvious," according to Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA). He did not specify to which regional preparations he was referring.

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The Lebanese president, seen as an ally of Hezbollah's, additionally referenced the terrorist group's role in "defending the nation," saying that while defense requires cooperation between the army, the people and Hezbollah, "the state alone sets the defense strategy and attends to its implementation."

A woman walks on rubble at the site of last year’s Beirut port blast on July 13 (credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

Aoun demanded that the "unjustified, deliberate and systematic blockage which dismantles the State and drives it to its demise" be ended.

The Lebanese president referred to a number of issues preventing the country's government from operating as the nation suffers from a worsening economic crisis, including a delay in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the blockage of the cabinet from meeting. He did not specifically name Hezbollah or any other party as responsible for any of the issues.

As of Monday morning, the exchange rate for the Lebanese pound sat at around 27,400 LBPs to the dollar.

CONCERNING THE blockage of the cabinet, Aoun questioned why it was being blocked, stressing that it could not make a decision about a matter that falls under the authority of the judiciary.

"Not tomorrow – today it is imperative that the cabinet meets and remedies the problems in the Council of Ministers," said Aoun. "By which law, by which logic, by which constitution is the Council of Ministers blocked, asked to make a decision that does not fall within its powers and have its action frozen over an issue that does not represent a pact-related disagreement?"

The president also called for the governmental system in Lebanon to be reformed to a civil state based on expanded administrative and financial decentralization.

Aoun also referenced recent tensions with Gulf states surrounding comments made by then-information minister George Kordahi seemingly in support of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. "I am keen on the best relations with the Arab states, and precisely with the Gulf countries, and I ask: “What is the reason for tautening the relation with these countries and meddling in affairs that are none of our business?" he said, according to NNA.

"I do not want to quarrel with anyone, neither people nor parties, and I do not want to dismantle the unity of any sect," said Aoun. "Yet, we have to be candid: marking time is fatal, and I shall not accept to watch silently as the state is falling apart and people are suffocating. I shall keep striving till the last day of my presidential tenure and the last day of my life to prevent that."

The Lebanese president stressed that "the state is built by respecting the laws, not by transgressing authority, nor by the domination of one authority over another. The state means law and stability at the same time, and no one may give the Lebanese a choice between one of the two matters."

Earlier this month, the Lebanese Ad-Diyab newspaper reported that Prime Minister Najib Mikati is hesitant to call a cabinet meeting due to concerns it could destabilize the country, especially amid "alarming security information" as well as the security situation possibly being shaken by the shooting against a Hamas funeral in a Palestinian refugee camp earlier this month.

Hezbollah has expressed strong opposition in recent months to Bitar continuing the investigation. The case has been suspended multiple times due to allegations of bias filed by officials who have been charged by the judge.

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Both implied and explicit threats have been made by Hezbollah and its allies against Bitar in recent months, claiming that the investigation is being influenced by foreign and political pressure.

In October, sources from Hezbollah and the Marada movement told the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV news that Bitar was preparing to accuse Hezbollah directly of responsibility for the explosion. The sources added that if he is not removed, they will leave the government.

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2021.12.30 國際新聞導讀-美伊核武談判俄羅斯怎麼看?美國工作簽證處理緩慢有傷美國經濟、俄羅斯關閉人權中心、黎巴嫩總統奧恩指責真主黨阻撓國家前進

美國簽證處理積壓危及外國人的生計

眾議員黛博拉羅斯表示,簽證處理的行政變更將曾經需要不到 30 分鐘的事情變成了 11 個月到兩年的等待。

通過路透

美國公民和移民服務機構的簽證處理積壓使外國工作簽證持有者的配偶難以工作和養家糊口。

積壓還威脅到這些居民為美國經濟貢獻的 75 億美元,其中許多人是科技工作者的配偶。

週二,代表北卡羅來納州第二國會選區的民主黨眾議員黛博拉·羅斯致信國土安全部部長亞歷杭德羅·馬約卡斯和美國公民和移民服務局局長烏爾·門多薩·賈杜,尋求幫助。

JPost 的熱門文章

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羅斯在信中寫道:“處理延誤使他們的家人沒有第二份收入,迫使他們動用儲蓄、出售房屋並採取其他嚴厲措施來維持生計。”

羅斯將積壓歸咎於兩個不同的問題:特朗普政府為 L-2 和 H-4 簽證申請人制定的COVID-19 限制和要求。這兩種類型的申請都允許外國工作簽證持有人的配偶進入美國。

抗議者聚集在肯尼迪機場 4 號航站樓外,反對美國總統唐納德特朗普於 2017 年 1 月 28 日在美國紐約市皇后區提出的移民禁令(圖片來源:REUTERS)

任何一個申請人都可以申請就業授權文件或 EAD,如果獲得批准,則可以工作。

羅斯說,絕大多數 H-4 和 L-2 申請人是受過高等教育的女性,她們經常在美國各地的 STEM 或科學、技術、工程和數學等領域工作。

特朗普政府要求提交 H-4 和 L-2 表格的配偶提交生物識別篩查,要求他們親自出庭。在約會時,配偶必須填寫表格,列出他們的年齡、出生日期、性別、眼睛和頭髮的顏色和體重。他們還必須按指紋並拍照。

羅斯說,簽證處理的行政變化將曾經只需不到 30 分鐘的事情變成了 11 個月到兩年的等待。她補充說,配偶不得在需要更新前六個月以上提交表格。

由於法院和解,這些新要求已暫停至 2023 年。如果申請人按時申請延期,該機構還同意將其就業許可延長 180 天。

“我們敦促 USCIS 與美國海關和邊境保護局合作,迅速實施這些監管改革,以最大限度地減輕移民婦女的負擔,”羅斯寫道。“仔細閱讀和解協議會發現,對於大多數在等待工作許可延期的配偶來說,這個和解協議幾乎沒有任何緩解作用。”

她說,180 天的延期與有效身份以及允許非移民延長逗留時間或更改非移民身份的另一種表格的積壓有關。

羅斯表示,在特朗普政府之前,主要申請人和附屬申請人會在 15 天內同時審查和決定。在她的信中,她要求官員們重新開始這樣做,並包括綠卡申請。

“我們還敦促 USCIS 迅速將加急處理擴展到其他簽證類別,包括 H-4 和 L-2 簽證以及 EAD,”羅斯說。“雖然國會最近批准了這一擴展,但 USCIS 尚未向家屬提供此選項。”

她建議使用該機構收取的 1,400 美元處理費來支付運營費用,並補充說,擴大加急處理(雇主可以要求加快其僱員的申請)也有助於籌集資金來支付工作費用。

US visa processing backlog risks livelihoods of foreign nationals

Rep. Deborah Ross said administrative changes to visa processing turned something that once took less than 30 minutes into an 11-month to two-year wait.

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 17:06

Social media video grab of passengers queuing at the immigration counter at Dulles International Airport in Virginia

(photo credit: LUKE MONTGOMERY/COURTESY/SOCIAL MEDIA/VIA REUTERS)

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A visa processing backlog at the US Citizenship and Immigration Services agency is making it difficult for spouses of foreign-national work-visa holders to work and provide for their families.

The backlog also threatens the $7.5 billion these residents, many of whom are spouses of tech workers, contribute to the US economy.

On Tuesday, US Rep. Deborah Ross, a Democrat who represents North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, authored a letter to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Ur Mendoza Jaddou asking for help.

“Processing delays have left their families without a second income, forcing them to dip into their savings, sell their homes, and take other drastic measures to stay on their feet,” Ross wrote in the letter.

Ross blamed two separate issues for creating the backlog: COVID-19 restrictions and requirements created under the Trump administration for L-2 and H-4 visa applicants. Both types of applications allow a spouse of a foreign-national work-visa holder to enter the United States.

Protesters gather outside Terminal 4 at JFK airport in opposition to U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed ban on immigration in Queens, New York City, US, January 28, 2017 (credit: REUTERS)

Either applicant can apply for employment authorization documents, or EADs, and if granted be allowed to work.

Ross said the vast majority of H-4 and L-2 applicants are highly educated women often working in STEM, or science, technology, engineering and math, fields around the United States.

The Trump administration required spouses submitting H-4 and L-2 forms to submit to biometric screenings that require them to appear in person. At the appointment, the spouse must fill out forms listing their age, date of birth, gender, eye and hair color and weight. They must also be fingerprinted and have photographs taken.

Ross said the administrative changes to visa processing turned something that once took less than 30 minutes into an 11-month to two-year wait. She added that the spouses are not allowed to submit the forms more than six months in advance of needing their renewal.

Those new requirements have been suspended through 2023 due to a court settlement. The agency also agreed to extend an applicant’s employment authorization by 180 days if they filed for an extension on time.

“We urge USCIS to work with US Customs and Border Protection to implement these regulatory changes expeditiously in order to maximize relief for immigrant women,” Ross wrote. “A careful reading of the settlement reveals that for most spouses stuck waiting for their work authorization extension, this settlement offers little relief.”

She said the 180-day extension is tied to valid status and a backlog of another form that allows nonimmigrants to extend their stay or change their non-immigration status.

Ross said before the Trump administration primary and dependent applicants were simultaneously reviewed and decided within 15 days. In her letter, she requested officials begin doing that again and include green card applications.

“We also urge USCIS to quickly expand premium processing to additional visa categories including H-4 and L-2 visas and EADs,” Ross said. “While Congress recently authorized this expansion, USCIS has not yet made this option available to dependents.”

She suggested using the $1,400 processing fees the agency collects to pay for operational expenses and added that expanding premium processing, in which an employer can request that his employee’s application be expedited, could also help raise funds to pay for the work.

Tags United Statesvisaimmigration

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俄羅斯關閉著名人權組織

聯合國人權辦公室表示,俄羅斯法院已決定“解散俄羅斯最受尊敬的兩個人權組織,並進一步削弱該國日益萎縮的人權社區”。

通過路透

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 15:24

2019 年 6 月 21 日,紀念人權中心車臣辦事處負責人 Oyub Titiev 在俄羅斯車臣阿爾貢鎮的流放地外受到歡迎。

(圖片來源:路透社/SAID TSARNAYEV)

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俄羅斯紀念人權中心於週三被莫斯科法院勒令關閉,此前一天,其姊妹組織——俄羅斯最古老的人權組織——被迫關閉。

人權中心保留了一份被歸類為政治犯的個人名單,其中包括克里姆林宮評論家阿列克謝·納瓦爾尼( Alexei Navalny)

這份名單包括耶和華見證人和穆斯林被判犯有恐怖主義罪,紀念說他們是“由於他們的宗教信仰而受到基於捏造證據的未經證實的指控”的受害者。

“波佐!波佐!” (恥辱!恥辱!)紀念支持者在場外高呼,包裹著 -12 攝氏度(10 華氏度)的溫度。

日內瓦聯合國人權辦公室表示,俄羅斯法院已決定“解散俄羅斯最受尊敬的兩個人權組織,進一步削弱該國日益萎縮的人權社區”。

“我們敦促俄羅斯當局保護和支持致力於在整個俄羅斯聯邦推進人權的人和組織,”它補充說。

2019 年 6 月 21 日,紀念人權中心車臣辦事處負責人 Oyub Titiev 獲釋後,在俄羅斯車臣阿爾貢鎮的流放地外與親屬交談。(圖片來源:REUTERS) /SAID TSARNAYEV)

國家檢察官曾表示,該中心的工作為恐怖主義和極端主義辯護,但它否認了這一點。

他們還指責它沒有系統地將其內容標記為“外國代理人”——這是 2014 年給出的帶有貶義蘇聯時代內涵的官方名稱。

克里姆林宮沒有立即發表評論,稱它不會干預法庭裁決。

該中心在以穆斯林為主的北高加索地區運營著一個辦事處網絡,在那裡記錄了車臣等地的侵犯人權行為,並為受害者提供了法律和實際幫助。

除非中心贏得上訴,否則這些辦公室將不得不關閉。

該中心的執行主任安娜·多布羅沃爾斯卡婭 (Anna Dobrovolskaya) 在法庭外表示,當局似乎已著手清除所有人權組織,從紀念館開始。

'太尷尬'

“我們不能說這對我們來說是一個完全的驚喜,”她說。

“有一種感覺,(維權工作的)空間正在縮小。很多人看到這些事件時會非常沮喪,很多人會寫中世紀和黑暗時代的開始。”

她表示,這項裁決將對其他維權人士產生寒蟬效應。“顯然我們的工作變得太尷尬了,打擾了某人。”

與最高法院週二決定關閉以記錄和保持斯大林時代罪行記憶而聞名的紀念國際一樣,這項裁決受到了國際人權組織的譴責。

“在兩天內,俄羅斯法院對俄羅斯的人權運動進行了二分之一的打擊,”總部位於紐約的人權觀察組織的雷切爾·丹伯 (Rachel Denber) 發推文說。

“在蘇聯時代結束後幾乎整整 30 年,當局正在設定新的、壓制性的界限,限制對過去的言論和對當今俄羅斯的虐待行為的言論和行為。”

克里姆林宮的主要批評者納瓦爾尼被判入獄,他的運動被禁止,他的許多同夥被迫逃離。莫斯科表示,這只是在挫敗極端主義並保護俄羅斯免受外國惡意影響。

批評人士說,自 1999 年以來一直擔任總統或總理的弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)正在將時間倒流到蘇聯時代,當時所有異議都被鎮壓了。

紀念館建於蘇聯的最後幾年,最初調查蘇聯時期的罪行,但後來也開始調查現代虐待行為。

法庭外的一位支持者只透露了自己的名字葉戈爾,他說紀念人權中心的裁決對俄羅斯人民來說“令人震驚”。

“這是一個真正有用的組織,捍衛因信念而受到迫害的無辜者的權利,”他說。

“需要有反對派,不同觀點的人。這就是政治競爭的原則。”

Russia shuts down prominent human rights organization

The UN human rights office said Russian courts had decided to 'dissolve two of Russia’s most respected human rights groups and further weaken the country’s dwindling human rights community.'

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 15:24

Oyub Titiev, the head of the Chechen office of the Memorial Human Rights Centre, is welcomed after his release, outside of a penal colony settlement, in the town of Argun, in Chechnya, Russia, June 21, 2019.

(photo credit: REUTERS/SAID TSARNAYEV)

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Russia's Memorial Human Rights Centre was ordered to shut by a Moscow court on Wednesday, a day after its sister organization - Russia's oldest human rights group - was forced to close.

The Human Rights Centre keeps a running list of individuals it classifies as political prisoners, including Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

The list includes Jehovah's Witnesses and Muslims convicted of terrorism who Memorial says were victims of "unproven charges based on fabricated evidence because of their religious affiliation."

"Pozor! Pozor!" (Shame! Shame!) Memorial supporters chanted outside the court, wrapped up against a temperature of -12 degrees Celsius (10 Fahrenheit).

The UN human rights office in Geneva said Russian courts had decided to "dissolve two of Russia’s most respected human rights groups and further weaken the country’s dwindling human rights community."

"We urge the Russian authorities to protect and support people and organizations that work to advance human rights across the Russian Federation," it added.

Oyub Titiev, the head of the Chechen office of the Memorial Human Rights Centre, talks with relatives after his release, outside of a penal colony settlement, in the town of Argun, in Chechnya, Russia, June 21, 2019. (credit: REUTERS/SAID TSARNAYEV)

State prosecutors had said the Centre's work justified terrorism and extremism, something it denied.

They had also accused it of failing to systematically label its content as that of a "foreign agent" - an official designation carrying pejorative Soviet-era connotations that it was given in 2014.

There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin, which says it does not interfere in court decisions.

The Centre operates a network of offices across the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus region, where it has documented rights abuses in places such as Chechnya and provided legal and practical help to victims.

Those offices will have to be shut unless the Centre wins an appeal.

Anna Dobrovolskaya, the Centre's executive director, said outside the court that the authorities appeared set on purging all human rights groups, starting with Memorial.

'TOO AWKWARD'

"We can't say this was a complete surprise for us," she said.

"There was a feeling that the space (for rights work) is shrinking. Many people will be really upset when they see these events, and many people will write about the onset of medieval and dark times."

She said the ruling would have a chilling effect on other rights activists. "Obviously our work had become too awkward, and bothered someone."

The ruling, like the Supreme Court's decision on Tuesday to shut down Memorial International, famous for chronicling and keeping alive the memory of Stalin-era crimes, was condemned by international rights groups.

"In two days, Russia's courts delivered a one-two punch to Russia's human rights movement," tweeted Rachel Denber of New York-based Human Rights Watch.

"Almost exactly 30 years after the end of the Soviet era, authorities are setting new, repressive boundaries on what can be said about the past and what can be said and done about abuse in today’s Russia."

The legal onslaught capped a year in which Navalny, the Kremlin's leading critic, was jailed, his movement banned and many of his associates forced to flee. Moscow says it is simply thwarting extremism and shielding Russia from malign foreign influence.

Critics say Vladimir Putin, in power as president or prime minister since 1999, and at odds with the West on everything from Ukraine to Syria, is turning back the clock to the Soviet era, when all dissent was crushed.

Memorial was established in the final years of the Soviet Union and initially investigated the crimes of the Soviet period, but later began inquiring into modern-day abuses too.

One supporter outside the court, who only gave his first name, Yegor, said the Memorial Human Rights Centre ruling was "appalling" for the Russian people.

"It was a genuinely useful organization that defended the rights of innocent people who were being persecuted for their convictions," he said.

"There needs to be an opposition, people with different views. That's what the principles of political competition are about."

俄羅斯的“如果伊朗擁有重要核材料怎麼辦”時刻——分析

烏里揚諾夫殘酷的誠實揭示了為什麼將伊朗令人生畏。

作者:尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 13:02

更新時間: 2021 年 12 月 29 日 19:46

2021 年 11 月 29 日,在奧地利維也納舉行的聯合全面行動計劃 (JCPOA) 會議後,俄羅斯國際原子能機構 (IAEA) 州長米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫 (Mikhail Ulyanov) 向媒體通報了情況。

(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)

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外交官時不時地滑倒,說出他們的真實想法,並向全世界揭示一些大多數人寧願忽視的令人不快的真相。

週二晚些時候,俄羅斯常駐維也納國際組織代表米哈伊爾·烏里揚諾夫(Mikhail Ulyanov)在接受《外交政策》出版物採訪時就是這樣做的。

他表示,現在不是用更大壓力威脅伊朗的時候,因為“即使他們生產了大量核材料,那又怎樣。沒有彈頭就不能使用,而伊朗人沒有彈頭。”

拒絕在維也納會談中設定一些最後期限,他補充說:“這種緊迫感有點誇大其詞。是的,這很緊急,但讓我們謹慎行事;讓我們[不]設置人為的最後期限。”

“那麼”如果伊朗生產大量核材料會怎樣——真的嗎?

伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西本月早些時候訪問了布什爾核電站。(來源:官方總統網站/路透社)

所以世界上沒有人應該擔心下週或下個月伊斯蘭共和國是否會因為尚未解決如何在導彈上運載核武器的問題而躍升到90%的武器化水平?

誠然,幾乎所有核專家都承認,德黑蘭在引爆和導彈發射領域有工作要做。但對這需要多長時間(從六個月到兩年不等)的估計都是基於一種充滿希望的假設,即當 IAEA 自 2015 年以來一直在監測其宣布的設施時,該政權在這些領域沒有秘密推進太多。

朝鮮近年來震驚了世界,“突然”掌握了專家認為需要幾年才能確定的各種核技能。

現在平壤不僅擁有一顆核彈,而且擁有估計多達數十顆核彈的核武庫。

此外,世界將如此多的精力集中在監測鈾濃縮的全部原因是主要核武器的過程,濃縮是最容易監測的,因為它需要具有數千台離心機的大型設施。

處理引爆和交付問題的工作更容易隱藏,當然要等到核試驗——而且一旦進行了試驗,就認為一個國家已經跨越了核門檻。

烏里揚諾夫所說的關鍵是,即使俄羅斯反對伊朗獲得核武器,它也不會像美國那樣不安,更不用說以色列了。

它願意冒險看到阿亞圖拉比現在更接近炸彈,而不會給他們施加真正的壓力來達成協議。

為什麼美國和歐盟要推動伊朗“在幾週內而不是幾個月內”達成協議?

因為伊朗的核鈾濃縮高達 60%,並且可能在一個月或更短的時間內躍升至 90% 的武器化濃縮。

並不是所有的核問題都必須在幾週內解決。相反,德黑蘭向前推進的核進程必須在這段時間內停止,以避免該政權帶來新的風險。

俄羅斯不是伊朗問題最嚴重的國家——那就是中國。

莫斯科至少幫助伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉阿里哈梅內伊在 10 月至 11 月期間向其施壓,讓其重返核談判,並公開表示,在中斷幾個月後,現在是重啟談判的“好時機”。

北京幾乎完全將當前的核僵局歸咎於美國對伊朗的製裁,因為它對特朗普和拜登政府的製裁感到憤怒,並希望在各個領域與美國的製裁作鬥爭。

所有這些都讓人們認為,美國唯一需要做的就是堅持對伊朗的製裁。

烏里揚諾夫的“那又怎樣”的時刻清楚地表明這還不夠。

只要俄羅斯和中國準備好容忍伊朗達到目前甚至更高的先進核水平,美國的壓力,即使有歐盟的加入,也不足以達成改進的 JCPOA 核協議。

美國的製裁壓力,加上北京、莫斯科和哈梅內伊都認為可信的對伊朗的可行的美國或以色列軍事、秘密或網絡威脅,可能是解決該協議漏洞的唯一方法。

由於這種威脅可能不會出現,更有可能的情況是直接返回 JCPOA、返回稍差的版本,或者某種至少阻止伊朗向前進展的臨時協議。

但批評美國對伊朗政策的人——以及奧巴馬、特朗普和拜登政府有很多值得批評的地方​​——需要承認,如果沒有俄羅斯和中國的支持,即使華盛頓試圖在外交和製裁上堅持這一立場,JCPOA 也會神奇地更好不會突然實現。

在現階段的許多方面,通往德黑蘭的道路是通過莫斯科和北京,就像通過華盛頓一樣。

Russia’s 'so what if Iran has significant nuke material' moment - analysis

Ulyanov's brutal honesty reveals why checkmating Iran is daunting.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB

Published: DECEMBER 29, 2021 13:02

Updated: DECEMBER 29, 2021 19:46

Russia's Governor to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mikhail Ulyanov briefs the media after a meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Vienna, Austria, November 29, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)

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Every now and then diplomats slip, say what they really think, and reveal to the whole world some inconvenient truths that most would rather ignore.

Late Tuesday, Russia’s Permanent Representative to Vienna-based International Organizations Mikhail Ulyanov did just that in an interview with the publication Foreign Policy.

He remarked that now is not the time to threaten Iran with greater pressure because “even if they produce a significant amount of nuclear material, so what. It cannot be used without a warhead, and the Iranians do not have warheads.”

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Rejecting the setting up of some deadlines at the Vienna talks, he added: “This sense of urgency is a little bit exaggerated. Yes, it’s urgent, but let’s be prudent; let’s [not] set up artificial deadlines.”

“So what” if Iran produces a significant amount of nuclear material – really?

IRANIAN PRESIDENT Ebrahim Raisi visits the Bushehr nuclear power plant earlier this month. (credit: OFFICIAL PRESIDENTIAL WEBSITE / REUTERS)

So no one in the world should worry if next week or next month the Islamic Republic jumps to the 90% weaponized level because it has not yet solved the problem of how to deliver a nuclear weapon on a missile?

True, pretty much all nuclear experts acknowledge that Tehran has work to do in the areas of detonation and missile delivery. But the estimates for how long that would take – from six months to two years – are all guesses on the hopeful assumption that the regime has not advanced much in those areas clandestinely while the IAEA has been monitoring its declared facilities since 2015.

NORTH KOREA shocked the world in recent years, “suddenly” mastering a variety of nuclear skills that experts believed would take it several more years to nail down.

Now Pyongyang does not just have one nuclear bomb, but a nuclear arsenal estimated to include up to dozens of bombs.

Also, the whole reason the world has focused so much energy on monitoring uranium enrichment is that of the major nuclear weapons’ processes, enrichment is the easiest to monitor because it requires large facilities with thousands of centrifuges.

Working on the detonation and delivery issues is easier to hide, certainly until a nuclear test – and once a test has been performed, a country is considered to have crossed the nuclear threshold.

What is crucial about what Ulyanov said is that even if Russia opposes Iran getting a nuclear weapon, it is not as disturbed to the same degree as the US, let alone Israel.

It is willing to risk seeing the ayatollahs getting closer to a bomb than they are now without putting real pressure on them to cut a deal.

Why are the US and the EU pushing for the Islamic Republic to cut a deal “within weeks, not months”?

Because Iran is up to 60% nuclear uranium enrichment and could jump to 90% weaponized enrichment in a month or a bit less.

It is not that all nuclear issues must be resolved within weeks. Rather, it is that Tehran’s forward nuclear progress must be halted within that period to avoid a new level of risk from the regime.

RUSSIA is not the most problematic country concerning Iran – that would be China.

Moscow at least helped pressure Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into returning to the nuclear talks in the October-November period, publicly saying it was “high time” that talks be renewed after a several-month hiatus.

Beijing almost entirely blames US sanctions against Iran for the current nuclear standoff because it is angry at both the Trump and Biden administrations over sanctions, and wants to fight American sanctions in every arena.

All of this blows open the argument that the only thing the US needs to do is hold the line with its sanctions against Iran.

Ulyanov’s “so what” moment makes it clear that will not be enough.

As long as Russia and China are ready to tolerate Iran at its current advanced nuclear levels and even beyond, American pressure, even with the EU on board, will be insufficient to get an improved JCPOA nuclear deal.

A mix of US sanction pressure along with a viable US or Israeli military, covert or cyber threat against Iran that Beijing, Moscow and Khamenei all find believable, is likely the only way to fix the deal’s holes.

Since such a threat is likely not forthcoming, the more likely scenarios are a straight return to the JCPOA, a return to a slightly worse version of it, or some kind of interim deal that at least stops Iran’s forward progress.

But critics of US policy on Iran – and there is much to criticize in the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations – need to admit that without Russian and Chinese backing, even if Washington tries to hold the line diplomatically and with sanctions, a magically better JCPOA will not suddenly materialize.

In many ways at this stage, the road to Tehran is through Moscow and Beijing as much as through Washington.

黎巴嫩的奧恩對真主黨繼續阻撓內閣表示憤怒

總統說,必須結束“不合理、蓄意和系統性的封鎖,這種封鎖會瓦解國家並將其推向滅亡”。

通過TZVI JOFFRE

發佈時間: 2021 年 12 月 28 日 09:02

更新時間: 2021 年 12 月 28 日 14:49

Dalati Nohra 於 2021 年 9 月 24 日在黎巴嫩巴卜達通過錄製的視頻信息向聯合國大會發表講話時,在這張講義圖片中可以看到黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩。

(照片來源:DALATI NOHRA/Handout via REUTERS)

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黎巴嫩總統米歇爾·奧恩 (Michel Aoun) 週一在一次演講中表示憤怒,稱由於真主黨要求在他們同意召開內閣會議之前將塔雷克·比塔爾法官從貝魯特港爆炸案中撤職,該國內閣已經兩個多月沒有開會。

在被暫停一個月後,本月早些時候,在貝魯特上訴法院駁回了前公共工程部長優素福費尼亞諾斯的上訴後,比塔爾恢復了對貝魯特港爆炸事件的調查,後者已被法官指控並傳喚進行訊問。然而,週四,由於 Bitar 傳喚進行調查的前部長提起訴訟,調查第四次停止。

奧恩週一開始講話時強調,“有必要以更清晰的方式說話,因為風險正在增加並威脅到國家的統一——而我們在該地區目睹的準備工作使問題變得更加明顯,”他說。黎巴嫩國家通訊社(NNA)。他沒有具體說明他指的是哪些區域籌備工作。

被視為真主黨盟友的黎巴嫩總統還提到了該恐怖組織在“保衛國家”方面的作用,稱雖然國防需要軍隊、人民和真主黨之間的合作,但“國家獨自製定國防戰略並關注它的實施。”

7 月 13 日,一名婦女在去年貝魯特港口爆炸現場的瓦礫上行走(圖片來源:MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

奧恩要求結束“不合理的、蓄意的和系統的封鎖,這種封鎖會瓦解國家並將其推向滅亡”。

黎巴嫩總統提到了一些阻礙該國政府運作的問題,因為該國正遭受不斷惡化的經濟危機,包括與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的談判延遲以及內閣會議被阻。他沒有具體點名真主黨或任何其他方對任何問題負責。

截至週一上午,黎巴嫩鎊兌美元匯率約為 27,400 LBP。

對於內閣被堵,奧恩質疑為什麼被堵,強調不能就屬於司法權的事情做出決定。

“不是明天——今天內閣必須開會並解決部長會議的問題,”奧恩說。“部長理事會根據哪條法律、哪條邏輯、哪部憲法被要求做出不屬於其權力範圍的決定,並在不代表與協議相關分歧的問題上凍結其行動?”

總統還呼籲將黎巴嫩的政府體制改革為基於擴大行政和財政權力下放的文明國家。

Aoun 還提到了最近與海灣國家的緊張局勢,當時的信息部長 George Kordahi 似乎支持伊朗支持的胡塞叛軍。“我熱衷於與阿拉伯國家建立最好的關係,尤其是與海灣國家的關係,我問:‘拉緊與這些國家的關係並干涉與我們無關的事務的原因是什麼?” 據 NNA 報導,他說。

奧恩說:“我不想與任何人爭吵,不與人爭吵,也不與政黨爭吵,也不想破壞任何教派的團結。” “然而,我們必須坦率:時間是致命的,我不會接受在國家崩潰和人民窒息的情況下默默地看著。我將繼續努力,直到我的總統任期的最後一天和總統任期的最後一天。我的生命來防止這種情況發生。”

黎巴嫩總統強調,“國家是通過尊重法律建立起來的,而不是通過超越權威,也不是通過一個權威對另一個權威的統治。國家同時意味著法律和穩定,沒有人可以給黎巴嫩人選擇在兩件事之一之間。”

本月早些時候,黎巴嫩媒體報導稱,總理納吉布·米卡蒂 (Najib Mikati)不願召開內閣會議,因為擔心這可能會破壞該國的穩定,尤其是在“令人擔憂的安全信息”以及安全局勢可能受到動搖的情況下本月早些時候在巴勒斯坦難民營對哈馬斯的葬禮開槍。

最近幾個月,真主黨強烈反對Bitar 繼續調查。由於被法官指控的官員提出的偏見指控,此案已多次暫停。

被推薦

最近幾個月,真主黨及其盟友對 Bitar 進行了暗示和明確的威脅,聲稱調查受到外國和政治壓力的影響。

10 月,來自真主黨和馬拉達運動的消息人士告訴黎巴嫩 Al-Jadeed 電視新聞,比塔爾準備直接指責真主黨對爆炸負責。消息人士補充說,如果他不被撤職,他們將離開政府。

Lebanon's Aoun expresses outrage as Hezbollah continues to block cabinet

"Unjustified, deliberate and systematic blockage which dismantles the state and drives it to its demise" must be ended, the president said.

By TZVI JOFFRE

Published: DECEMBER 28, 2021 09:02

Updated: DECEMBER 28, 2021 14:49

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun is seen in this handout picture released by Dalati Nohra on September 24, 2021, while addressing the United Nations General Assembly via a recorded video message, in Baabda, Lebanon.

(photo credit: DALATI NOHRA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

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Lebanese President Michel Aoun expressed outrage in a speech on Monday that the country's cabinet has not met for over two months due to demands by Hezbollah for Judge Tarek Bitar to be removed from the Beirut Port blast case before they agree to a cabinet meeting.

After being halted for a month, Bitar resumed his investigation into the Beirut Port blast earlier this month after the Beirut Court of Appeals rejected an appeal by former Public Works Minister Youssef Fenianos, who had been charged and summoned for questioning by the judge. However, on Thursday the investigation was halted for a fourth time due to a lawsuit by ex-ministers who Bitar had summoned for investigation.

Aoun started his speech on Monday by stressing that it has become necessary to "speak in a clearer manner because the risks are growing and threatening the nation’s unity – and the preparations we are witnessing in the region make the problems all the more obvious," according to Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA). He did not specify to which regional preparations he was referring.

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The Lebanese president, seen as an ally of Hezbollah's, additionally referenced the terrorist group's role in "defending the nation," saying that while defense requires cooperation between the army, the people and Hezbollah, "the state alone sets the defense strategy and attends to its implementation."

A woman walks on rubble at the site of last year’s Beirut port blast on July 13 (credit: MOHAMED AZAKIR/REUTERS)

Aoun demanded that the "unjustified, deliberate and systematic blockage which dismantles the State and drives it to its demise" be ended.

The Lebanese president referred to a number of issues preventing the country's government from operating as the nation suffers from a worsening economic crisis, including a delay in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the blockage of the cabinet from meeting. He did not specifically name Hezbollah or any other party as responsible for any of the issues.

As of Monday morning, the exchange rate for the Lebanese pound sat at around 27,400 LBPs to the dollar.

CONCERNING THE blockage of the cabinet, Aoun questioned why it was being blocked, stressing that it could not make a decision about a matter that falls under the authority of the judiciary.

"Not tomorrow – today it is imperative that the cabinet meets and remedies the problems in the Council of Ministers," said Aoun. "By which law, by which logic, by which constitution is the Council of Ministers blocked, asked to make a decision that does not fall within its powers and have its action frozen over an issue that does not represent a pact-related disagreement?"

The president also called for the governmental system in Lebanon to be reformed to a civil state based on expanded administrative and financial decentralization.

Aoun also referenced recent tensions with Gulf states surrounding comments made by then-information minister George Kordahi seemingly in support of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. "I am keen on the best relations with the Arab states, and precisely with the Gulf countries, and I ask: “What is the reason for tautening the relation with these countries and meddling in affairs that are none of our business?" he said, according to NNA.

"I do not want to quarrel with anyone, neither people nor parties, and I do not want to dismantle the unity of any sect," said Aoun. "Yet, we have to be candid: marking time is fatal, and I shall not accept to watch silently as the state is falling apart and people are suffocating. I shall keep striving till the last day of my presidential tenure and the last day of my life to prevent that."

The Lebanese president stressed that "the state is built by respecting the laws, not by transgressing authority, nor by the domination of one authority over another. The state means law and stability at the same time, and no one may give the Lebanese a choice between one of the two matters."

Earlier this month, the Lebanese Ad-Diyab newspaper reported that Prime Minister Najib Mikati is hesitant to call a cabinet meeting due to concerns it could destabilize the country, especially amid "alarming security information" as well as the security situation possibly being shaken by the shooting against a Hamas funeral in a Palestinian refugee camp earlier this month.

Hezbollah has expressed strong opposition in recent months to Bitar continuing the investigation. The case has been suspended multiple times due to allegations of bias filed by officials who have been charged by the judge.

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Both implied and explicit threats have been made by Hezbollah and its allies against Bitar in recent months, claiming that the investigation is being influenced by foreign and political pressure.

In October, sources from Hezbollah and the Marada movement told the Lebanese Al-Jadeed TV news that Bitar was preparing to accuse Hezbollah directly of responsibility for the explosion. The sources added that if he is not removed, they will leave the government.

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