Mark Penn Predicts Red Wave in 2022 Midterm Elections

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Every month, Mark Penn, Harris Poll Chairman and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill review the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. This month's poll was released together with The Hill this week. The October poll was conducted from October 12-13, 2022, among 2,010 registered voters. ​(Link to the full poll here).
Republicans are inching closer towards a wave election as they connect with voters on their key issues of inflation, crime, and immigration. The GOP is now winning the generic Congressional ballot 53-47 among likely voters.
Biden continues to struggle, especially on the economy: 84% of Americans think the US is in a recession now or will be by next year, and 55% blame Biden for inflation – including 42% of Democrats. The president’s recent policies on student debt relief and marijuana pardons are popular but don’t move the needle electorally for the Democrats.
Other key findings include:
VOTERS THINK REPUBLICANS ARE ADDRESSING THEIR TOP ISSUES MORE THAN DEMOCRATS

• Inflation, crime, and immigration are the most important issues voters picked heading into the midterms – and based on each, voters say they are over 10 points more likely to vote Republican than Democratic.
• Americans think Republican leaders are most concerned with immigration, inflation, and the economy – while Democratic leaders are most concerned with January 6, women’s rights, and the environment.

AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A RECESSION

• 84% of voters think the US is in a recession now or will be in one by next year.
• 58% are not confident in the Biden administration’s ability to keep inflation at bay.
• Americans are worried about the Fed: 74% think the Fed will cause a recession.

BIDEN’S DEBT RELIEF AND MARIJUANA PARDON POLICIES ARE POPULAR BUT DON’T MOVE THE NEEDLE ELECTORALLY

• 67% approve of Biden’s marijuana pardon, but it has no net effect on the electorate: 36% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote Republican, and 35% say more likely to vote Democratic.
• It’s a similar story for Biden’s student debt relief: 58% support his act – but 41% say it has made them more likely to vote Republican, compared to 35% Democratic.

AMERICANS LEAN TOWARDS HAWKISH FOREIGN POLICY ON OIL AND RUSSIA

• 65% oppose easing sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela as a way to lower gas and oil prices; instead, they want greater output of American oil and gas.
• 54% think the US should cut military sales and technical aid to the Saudi Arabian government in response to their oil production cut.
• Voters are split on whether or not Biden’s policies on Ukraine are pushing us towards nuclear war, and a majority remain supportive of providing aid to Ukraine.
• If Russia uses a nuclear weapon on Ukraine, 59% of Americans are willing to send in NATO.