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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investme ...
 
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PricewaterhouseCoopers earned over forty million dollars in fees auditing China Evergrande and signed off on the accounts presented to them by management for all of those years. PWC is likely to face criticism over the level of push back they gave to management over accounting policies that could have shown warning signs about the company’s financi…
 
China’s crackdown on property developers threatens the London property market. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond. A property consultant close to London’s development…
 
Revelations from nearly 12 million leaked confidential financial records have thrown light on the concealed wealth of powerful public figures around the world. How do they hide their money, and why is this information important? The Pandora Papers were released this week showing that Jordan’s King - Abdullah II amassed $100 million in property incl…
 
On the heels of Evergrande’s debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China’s real estate market after Fantasia Holdings failed to make a bond payment. Fantasia Holdings, a Chinese developer of luxury apartments missed $315 million in payments to lenders on Monday, sparking fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property…
 
Over the last month the news has been dominated by stories of energy shortages around the world. China has seen major industrial output cuts caused by power outages over the last year, European gas prices are trading near record highs and the UK is reeling from the political fallout of a surge in energy prices. US oil prices rose to the highest lev…
 
In the latest of a series of crypto crackdowns, Chinas central bank announced on Friday that overseas facilities offering cryptocurrency services inside China are “illegal”. It warned that any local staff who help these businesses operate, or even provide marketing and technical support, “shall be investigated”. This is the most direct crackdowns b…
 
The financial woes of Evergrande the once-mighty Chinese property developer highlight a showdown between two competing objectives for China's Communist Party. They aim to force China's private sector away from speculative and risky lending practices while avoiding a financial meltdown and the collapse of the property sector, in which more than 70% …
 
In an interview with local media, an Evergrande financial adviser said the products were a type of “supply chain finance”. While the money from retail investors may in years past have gone to its suppliers, the Evergrande executives in Shenzhen receiving retail investors said this was no longer the case. One of the executives of Evergrande’s wealth…
 
The liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer Evergrande shook global markets this morning with stocks falling in Asia, Europe and New York. The S&P 500 fell 2.1 per cent in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.6 per cent. The Vix, which measures expected volatility on the S&P, hit 26.5 — around its highest level since May. …
 
The implosion of Lehman Brothers, 13 years ago this week, showed the world how the collapse of a single company can send shockwaves around the world. Echoes from that event are resounding today as a massive Chinese property developer teeters on the brink of default. The collapse of Evergrande Real Estate Group - China's second-largest property deve…
 
The Beanie Babies Bubble is a particularly entertaining story which highlights all the hallmarks of a mania. Mass delusion. Speculation. Out of control expectations. The herd mentality. Right now, it might appear that we are in another collectibles boom, in February this year, a Michael Jordan basketball card sold for $738,000 at auction. The exact…
 
In today's podcast Patrick discusses the famous Warren Buffett quote “calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor “is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.” from his 1991 letter to investors. Topics covered are: what is the difference between trading and investing? Is one better than the other…
 
According to Forbes Magazine there are 2,755 billionaires in the world today. The top five industries where they made their money are Finance, Technology, Manufacturing, Retail and Healthcare. It is rare to become a billionaire, but even more unusual to reach that level and then lose everything, but it is not unheard of. Today we’ll look at ten one…
 
Why don’t central bankers care about rising asset prices? For most people their greatest expense is housing. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans spend almost 40% of their take home pay on shelter, this might lead you to ask - why aren’t home prices included in measures of inflation? And should they be? Is real inflation much high…
 
Insider trading, or the act of buying or selling investments based on nonpublic information, is against the law in the United States and in most countries. At its core, insider trading benefits well connected investors at the expense of the general public and it has been illegal in the US since 1934 – at least for corporate insiders. I made a video…
 
ESG (or environmental, social and governance) investing is one of the hottest things in markets right now, with large fund managers competing to be seen to take ESG more seriously than the next. Setting aside any moral judgements, the commercial rationale for the investment management industry is pretty clear: ESG funds have attracted about $350bn …
 
Apostolos Trovias was recently arrested in Peru and charged by the SEC with perpetrating a fraudulent scheme to sell what he called "insider trading tips" on the Dark Web. According to the complaint, Trovias, using the online avatar "TheBull" engaged in a deceptive scheme to sell "insider trading tips" on Dark Web marketplaces like Alpha Bay. The B…
 
Last week Janet Yellen called for rapid action to ensure there is an appropriate US regulatory framework in place for crypto-assets. A month ago the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said that banks’ exposures to crypto should carry the toughest capital requirements. Todays video looks at what consumer protections are in place for crypto inves…
 
Today we are going to discuss the Irish Banking Strike of 1970 when all of the countries clearing banks closed for over six months, only to find themselves quickly replaced by local pubs. We will discuss if something like this could work again, and at the end of the video we will compare how the system that emerged compares to more modern ideas lik…
 
SEC Charges Stable Road SPAC and Space Startup Momentus with Misleading Claims. The SEC announced on Tuesday that it charged blank-check company Stable Road Acquisition Corp (SRAC.O), its sponsor SRC-NI, space exploration company Momentus Inc and two executives for misleading claims over their planned merger. The SEC said the companies and Stable R…
 
Companies across major sectors of the market are reassessing political donations in response to the January 6th storming of the U.S. Capitol, but it is too soon to know whether it leads to fundamental changes in the way money flows between politics and business. In this video we discuss whether companies should make political donations? Patrick's B…
 
DiDi is a Chinese Ride Hailing app that raised $4.4bn in its listing on the New York Stock exchange this Wednesday. This was the biggest Chinese listing in the US since Alibaba listed seven years ago. The stock initially rallied, then two days later news broke that the Chinese regulators are investigating the company. They say they are doing this “…
 
Members of the leadership team at Lordstown Motors appear to have sold large amounts of company stock just before reports of various troubles at the company became public. Five top Lordstown executives—including president Rich Schmidt, now former chief financial officer Julio Rodriguez, and propulsion head Chuan "John" Vo—sold some of their shares …
 
The Private Capital Industry Soars Beyond $7 Trillion Over the past twenty years, the number of companies listed on the US stock market has almost halved. The world’s largest, most liquid public equity market would appear to have lost its shine. Institutional investors have been piling into private markets instead, in particular venture capital, pr…
 
Unprecedented stimulus measures to help the global economy recover from the pandemic are fueling price rises in many major economies. This week we examine whether this is just temporary, or if inflation is back for good. Is this a new era of hyperinflation? Interview With Manoj Pradhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHf0o... Book by Manoj Pradhan…
 
Robinhood will give retail investors access to IPO shares. Robinhood announced last week that they are building a platform to “democratize” initial public offerings, including their own, that would allow users of its trading app to buy shares alongside Wall Street funds. The move could erode Wall Street’s grip on stock market flotations. It would b…
 
The top five insider trading scandals. When people hear the term “insider trading,” they think of the crime. But insider trading is just the trading of a public company's securities by people with access to nonpublic or insider information about the company. There are rules around how insiders are allowed trade, forms they must fill out and so on, …
 
I have been a trader for over twenty years, and from the start of my hedge fund career working with Victor Niederhoffer I have taken a quantitative approach to researching and executing trading strategies. A quant trader is a trader that builds statistical models to test trading strategies rather than relying on intuition and experience. Today we w…
 
Todays podcast is a fun look at probability and statistics. We learn about double yolk eggs, why do they happen, what is the probability of finding one, and if you get one double yolker egg in a carton what is the probability of finding more than one? In probability, two events are independent if the incidence of one event does not affect the proba…
 
We look at the latest research from the good folks ARK Invest and payment company Square titled “Bitcoin is Key to an Abundant, Clean Energy Future”. Are Cathie Wood and Jack Dorsey right about the bitcoin green revolution? The white paper Square and ARK Invest ($ARKK) published this week aims to justify bitcoin’s energy use and explain how it coul…
 
A study by McKinsey found that the average life-span of S&P 500 companies has fallen from 61 years in 1958 to less than 18 years today. McKinsey predict that, by 2027, 75% of the companies currently included in the S&P 500 will have disappeared. So, What happens to these companies? Well, many will be bought- out, merged, and some will even go bankr…
 
Two months after Reddit day traders took GameStonk ( $GME ) shares to surprising heights in a massive short squeeze, the video game retailer is finally trying to cash in. On Monday, it announced plans to issue up to 3.5 million new shares worth $650m via an “at-the-market” offering, or ATM. The structure allows the issuer to raise cash bit by bit o…
 
Archegos Capital: The little-known family office of Bill Hwang convinced almost every big bank to lend enormous sums to it. One of the so-called Tiger Cub veterans of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management fund, Hwang was, after all, a man who had run into trouble before, having been banned from trading in Hong Kong and fined millions in the US to set…
 
The Collapse of Greensill Capital SoftBank-backed Greensill (a fintech company) lent billions of dollars to companies that included the highly indebted metals conglomerate GFG Alliance, silicon valley Construction Technology company Katerra and West Virginia mining company Bluestone Resources. These loans were packaged into bonds which were sold as…
 
What is the latest free money for Wall Street Hedge Funds? SPAC Arbitrage, which is an investment strategy that seeks to acquire shares or units of a special purpose acquisition company (“SPAC”) at or below its net asset value (“NAV”) in order to generate a return through either: An exit at a premium to NAV once the SPAC announces a business combin…
 
The story I am about to tell you will contradict almost everything I have taught people about risk and return, about how easy it is to make money and about arbitrage in markets. Today I’m going to tell you how an experimental physicist Konstantin Anikeev discovered an infinite money machine and used it to make $310 thousand dollars. In addition he …
 
In today's Podcast we look at some of the biggest corporate scandals since the turn of the century. They are listed in no particular order - let’s see if there is anything we can learn from them. Patrick's Books: Statistics for The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: h…
 
In today's podcast we discuss the top performing stocks of the last 100 years. Which countries have had the best performing stock markets, and which factors drive outperformance. Every year, in association with Credit Suisse, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School, release The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Ye…
 
In today's podcast Patrick Boyle interviews Victor Haghani, former Long Term Capital Management Partner about Salomon Brothers in the days of Liars Poker, What it was like working at LTCM, different approaches to investing, short squeezes, arbitrage and how Victor invests today. We talk briefly about the GameStop short squeeze, Melvin Capital and w…
 
This weeks podcast discusses some of the lessons that can be taken from the world of gambling that might help a trader with sizing their trades. We discuss what returns a trader might reasonably expect from the market. We look at the Kelly criterion (also known as the Kelly system or Kelly formula), to see if it can provide any insights to investor…
 
Financial markets have been thrown into turmoil over the last week by retail investors using social media chat groups such as the Reddit forum Wall Street Bets and low-cost investment platforms to drive up shares in GameStop, a US video game retailer. In what is called a “short squeeze”, the share buyers are putting intense pressure on hedge funds …
 
James Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break military codes could also explain patterns in the world of finance. Jim Simons has been described as "the world's smartest billionaire", amassing a fortune through the clever use of mathematics and computers. He has stepped down as the chairman of …
 
The Dot-Com bubble was one of the largest speculative bubbles in U.S. stock market history. Here's a quick history lesson on what it was like twenty years ago. The Dot-Com Bubble was a major economic event that ultimately led to a three year bear market. The Dot-Com Bubble started in the 1990s with a rapid wave of new internet companies going publi…
 
John Law was a Scottish monetary reformer and originator of the “Mississippi scheme” for the development of French territories in America. After killing an adversary in a duel, he fled to Amsterdam, where he was a professional gambler and learned about banking operations. A decade later he returned to Scotland and wrote his best-known work, Money a…
 
What is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)? or blank check company? Should you invest in SPACs, and how do they work? A SPAC is publicly-traded shell companies that raise collective investment funds through an initial public offering (IPO) in the form of a blind pool. The funds are placed into a trust until an acquisition is made or a pre…
 
An Interview with the leading expert on demographics and macroeconomics Manoj Pradhan. Manoj has just published a new book along with Charles Goodhart, former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and an Emeritus professor at the London School of Economics. The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and a…
 
Todays Episode is about George Soros and Macro Investing. George Soros is the most famous Macro Hedge Fund Investor. His Theory of General Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception. The theory of reflexivity has its roots…
 
Todays podcast is about the history of day trading and day traders. In order to better understand how markets work it is worth taking a look at the history of retail day trading, which goes back to the late 1980’s, when new technologies allowed a small group of smart and aggressive traders to take on Wall Street and win. Nasdaq market makers at the…
 
Today's episode is a list of my top ten books for traders, or the best finance books to read to learn about the financial industry. I decided to come up with a list of books that are not just filled with knowledge, but that are also really enjoyable reads – the kind of book that it is hard to put down. There are no university textbooks on this list…
 
Millionaire Habits That Could Change Your Life. In today’s podcast, I will share thirteen millionaire habits, things that self-made millionaires do that poor people do not. According to Fidelity, only 12% of today's millionaires in America inherited a significant portion of their wealth. One of the most effective ways to build wealth is to study th…
 
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