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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investme ...
 
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The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead according to António Guterres, the UN secretary general. He warned earlier this week that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the n…
 
The $1.3tn cryptocurrency industry was on Thursday hit by one of its toughest challenges when stablecoin Tether — a critical cog in the market — failed to maintain its link with the US dollar. The company refuses to provide details on the Treasury holdings that back the stablecoin claiming their fear of revealing the ‘secret sauce.’ Tether tumbled …
 
Xi Jinping has reaffirmed his commitment to China’s controversial zero-Covid strategy, warning against “any slackening” in the effort and vowing to crack down on criticism of the policy despite signs of damage to the economy. “Our prevention and control policies can withstand the test of history; our measures are scientific and effective. We have w…
 
Bill Hwang, founder of Archegos Capital Management, has been arrested by US authorities and charged with racketeering, fraud and market manipulation. The indictment accuses Hwang and former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan, of using Archegos as an “instrument of market manipulation and fraud” with “far-reaching consequences for other partic…
 
Elon Musk - The world’s richest man has allegedly hired the investment bank Morgan Stanley and is trying to gather financing, so he can buy Twitter for $43 billion. According to The New York Times, Musk is evaluating various packages of debt and a loan against his shares of Tesla. Apollo Global Management, an alternative asset manager, is among the…
 
The sanctions on Russia’s central bank use the reserve currency status of the US dollar to punish an American adversary. Will the US dollar lose its exorbitant privilege? What currency might replace the US Dollar as a reserve currency? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: http…
 
Vladimir Putin has demanded payment in roubles for Russian gas sold to “unfriendly” countries, setting a deadline of 31 March for the transition. It is not clear whether he plans to tear up existing contracts that set the price in euros or dollars, but Germany, which relies on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, is not taking any chances, warning l…
 
As the clock runs down to Monday's sanctions deadline for Russian airlines to hand back more than 450 leased planes worth almost $10 billion, foreign lessors are fast losing hope that they will get their planes back. As the owners rushed to repossess the planes, the Kremlin moved quickly to block this by passing a law allowing foreign airplanes to …
 
In markets, there are few principles considered more important by traders than the idea that when a commitment to a deal is made, it should stand come what may. So, there was uproar in the commodities market last week over the London Metal Exchange’s decision to bring the global nickel market to a halt and cancel futures trades because of a “short …
 
The UK announced new sanctions yesterday relating to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, targeting seven oligarchs with links to Vladimir Putin. Among them is Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea FC. In today's video we try to answer three questions: Who owns Chelsea FC right now? What happens with the other Russian assets being seized around the wo…
 
In Today’s podcast we discuss if the west can place an embargo on Russian energy exports? Western leaders have threatened Vladimir Putin with sweeping sanctions over his invasion of Ukraine but, they have been clear that they would avoid disrupting energy supplies. Hitting energy exports is no longer as due to the brutality of Putin’s war and the i…
 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks disrupting the export of critical commodities and rupturing supply chains. Industries from food to cars and fertilizer makers to aircraft manufacturers will be hit by disruption to exports. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to…
 
The US President said on Thursday that the United States and Europe were united in their efforts to confront Russian aggression toward Ukraine with aggressive sanctions. However, there was one area where he suggested that there was some disagreement: SWIFT. The messaging service, called the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunicatio…
 
A married couple has been arrested and charged with laundering billions in Bitcoin stolen during the 2016 Bitfinex hack, as the Justice Department announced its largest financial seizure ever. Ilya 'Dutch' Lichtenstein, and his wife, Heather Rhiannon Morgan aka Razzlekhan or The Crocodile of Wall Street, were arrested on Tuesday in Manhattan on fed…
 
US criminal authorities are gathering information on contacts among dozens of short selling hedge funds and research outfits as they investigate possible trading abuses by hedge funds. This comes after complaints from GameStop and AMC Shareholders. The Department of Justice has sent subpoenas asking for information about a list of more than two doz…
 
China’s Economy Is Slowing Which Could Have Big Consequences for the World. Economic output grew four percent in the last quarter, a slowdown from the previous quarter. Growth faltered as home buyers and consumers became more cautious. Construction and property sales have slumped, as the country grapples with power shortages, Covid-related restrict…
 
In the United States, the government is not the only entity legally allowed to issue money. Private citizens and businesses are allowed to do so, too, and throughout U.S. history, they have done this. This type of money is referred to as private money, and it had mostly disappeared from circulation until Bitcoin was created in 2009. Today more than…
 
During the pandemic, house prices have increased even faster than they did in the period leading up to the 2007 financial crisis, stoking concern that another dangerous housing bubble is developing. In this week's podcast we compare the current real estate market to the bubble years before the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 Patrick's Books: S…
 
On Monday we saw the fraud conviction of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. This conviction we are told in the press has split Silicon Valley. Supporters worry that the spirit of entrepreneurship has been put in ‘jeopardy’ while others say she overstepped boundaries. Tim Draper, a venture capitalist and family friend of Holmes who provided early fu…
 
Let’s look back at the big financial events of 2021 and the lessons we learned. 2021 was an exciting year in markets, we had meme stocks, SPACs, hedge fund blow ups and the mainstreaming of crypto. The stock market went from strength to strength this year. The year started out with the short squeezes in GameStop and then AMC. As global economies bo…
 
Having defied internal and external economic logic by repeatedly cutting interest rates, Erdogan opted this week for a new set of measures to stabilize its currency. What should we make of Turkey’s latest currency move? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjs…
 
The Turkish lira has been in meltdown as President Erdogan rejected warnings on the dangers of his recent interest rate cuts. He vowed that there was “no going back”. The currency, which has lost about 40 per cent of its value against the dollar since the central bank started lowering borrowing costs in September, fell to a new record low of TL18.3…
 
Chinese creditors have sued Evergrande for more than $13 billion dollars in as domestic companies owed money by the property development firm race against offshore bondholders to get paid. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://…
 
Link for next suggested piece: Chinese State Owned Developers Rescue Local Governments! - YouTube Investors are waiting for news about tens of millions of dollars of overdue interest payments owed by Chinese Property Developers Evergrande and Kaisa. The firms both appear to be overdue on payments to bond holders. Evergrande's shares closed at a new…
 
Just five months after going public on the New York Stock Exchange, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Global said it plans to delist from the New York Stock Exchange and pursue a Hong Kong listing as it bends to Chinese regulators angered by its US IPO. “Following careful research, the company will immediately start delisting on the New York stock ex…
 
Subscribe to The Daily Upside! (Free Business & Finance Newsletter) https://bit.ly/3lwt7LT Short squeezes have been all over the news this year as retail investors banded together to spoil the fun for hedge funds in some well-known stocks. Short squeezes are not new though, they’ve been around as long as short selling has. In today’s video we look …
 
A few weeks ago, I made a video on how the world of investing has changed over the last few years. I explained how much easier investing had become in 2021, as there is much less of a need for the type of analysis people used to do in the past. The trick today is to invest in things that seem funny, and hope that Elon Musk then tweets about them. I…
 
In 2005, Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis published a bombshell essay titled “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”, which noted that the results of many medical research papers could not be replicated by other researchers. Subsequently, several other fields have turned a harsh eye on themselves and come to similar conclusions. T…
 
Chinese state-owned developers are rescuing cash-strapped local governments in China by stepping to the fore at land auctions previously dominated by private sector groups like Evergrande. State-owned bidders include highly leveraged local government finance vehicles, which have traditionally focused on infrastructure projects rather than real esta…
 
JP Morgan Chase is suing Tesla for $162 million over tweets in 2018 by Technoking Elon Musk that he would take the electric vehicle maker private. JP Morgan accuses Tesla of "flagrantly" breaching a deal it claims should have triggered payments to JP Morgan. JP Morgan's suit, filed in a Manhattan federal court, says that Tesla sold warrants to JP M…
 
In China, there is no better sell-signal than when the president, starts attacking an industry. So when Xi said in March that home-schooling was a “stubborn malady” that was putting too much pressure on Chinese children and their parents, the executives of two Chinese tutoring companies dumped their shares in New York according to records found by …
 
The Federal Reserve warned that fragility in China’s commercial real-estate sector could spread to the U.S. if it deteriorates dramatically, as investor focus turns to China Evergrande Group’s biggest payment test yet. The Fed’s stability report, which is meant to highlight risks that could undermine the financial system, said that “stresses in Chi…
 
Federal regulators requested more power from Congress to regulate stablecoins, a fast-growing type of cryptocurrency that they warn could result in bank runs and consumer abuse unless lawmakers act quickly, according to a report issued Monday by the Treasury Department. The report, which was undertaken by the President’s Working Group on Financial …
 
Zillow, the digital real estate company, said on Tuesday that it’s exiting Offers, its business that buys and flips homes, and eliminating 25% of its workforce. The announcement was attached to Zillow’s third-quarter earnings report. The company’s revenue and earnings missed analysts’ estimates. “We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting…
 
The anonymous scammers behind a Squid Game cryptocurrency have officially pulled the rug on the project, making off with an estimated $2.1 million. Investors were able to purchase the crypto but couldn’t sell it. The SQUID cryptocurrency peaked at a price of $2,861 before plummeting to $0 around 5:40 a.m. ET., according to the website CoinMarketCap…
 
https://teamseas.org/ The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic idea made popular by the American ecologist Garrett Hardin, who used the analogy of ranchers grazing their animals on a common field. Individual ranchers will seek to add additional livestock, to increase their profits. The benefit of adding additional animals accrue to the rancher alo…
 
In this video we look at meme coins and learn about the Elon Markets Hypothesis. Patrick explains why he is all in on Shibu Inu. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/Patric…
 
Do Companies Buy S&P500 Membership? A new working paper attempts to figure out why some companies make it into the blue-chip stock market index. In recent years there has been a huge shift away from active asset management and towards passive, index-tracking funds. The indices that these funds follow have in turn gained enormous power, becoming gat…
 
The SEC published its report on GameStop $GME this Monday, which focuses on the January 2021 trading activity of GameStop Corp (GME), the most famous of the "meme stocks." Because the meme stock episode raised several questions about market structure, the staff report also provides an overview of the equity and options market structure for individu…
 
The first bitcoin-linked ETF is scheduled to make its NYSE debut officially on Tuesday morning. The new ETF from ProShares, will track the bitcoin futures market and trade on the NYSE under the ticker “BITO.” According to ProShares a multitude of investors have been eagerly awaiting the launch of a bitcoin-linked ETF after years of efforts to launc…
 
A small London based crypto asset trading platform called DeversiFi got quite a shock two weeks ago when it mistakenly paid out a $24m fee to a large crypto miner. Transferring crypto deposits generates a fee, known in the industry as a “gas fee”, to compensate miners for the computing energy used to verify transactions on the blockchain. DeversiFi…
 
PricewaterhouseCoopers earned over forty million dollars in fees auditing China Evergrande and signed off on the accounts presented to them by management for all of those years. PWC is likely to face criticism over the level of push back they gave to management over accounting policies that could have shown warning signs about the company’s financi…
 
China’s crackdown on property developers threatens the London property market. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond. A property consultant close to London’s development…
 
Revelations from nearly 12 million leaked confidential financial records have thrown light on the concealed wealth of powerful public figures around the world. How do they hide their money, and why is this information important? The Pandora Papers were released this week showing that Jordan’s King - Abdullah II amassed $100 million in property incl…
 
On the heels of Evergrande’s debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China’s real estate market after Fantasia Holdings failed to make a bond payment. Fantasia Holdings, a Chinese developer of luxury apartments missed $315 million in payments to lenders on Monday, sparking fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property…
 
Over the last month the news has been dominated by stories of energy shortages around the world. China has seen major industrial output cuts caused by power outages over the last year, European gas prices are trading near record highs and the UK is reeling from the political fallout of a surge in energy prices. US oil prices rose to the highest lev…
 
In the latest of a series of crypto crackdowns, Chinas central bank announced on Friday that overseas facilities offering cryptocurrency services inside China are “illegal”. It warned that any local staff who help these businesses operate, or even provide marketing and technical support, “shall be investigated”. This is the most direct crackdowns b…
 
The financial woes of Evergrande the once-mighty Chinese property developer highlight a showdown between two competing objectives for China's Communist Party. They aim to force China's private sector away from speculative and risky lending practices while avoiding a financial meltdown and the collapse of the property sector, in which more than 70% …
 
In an interview with local media, an Evergrande financial adviser said the products were a type of “supply chain finance”. While the money from retail investors may in years past have gone to its suppliers, the Evergrande executives in Shenzhen receiving retail investors said this was no longer the case. One of the executives of Evergrande’s wealth…
 
The liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer Evergrande shook global markets this morning with stocks falling in Asia, Europe and New York. The S&P 500 fell 2.1 per cent in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.6 per cent. The Vix, which measures expected volatility on the S&P, hit 26.5 — around its highest level since May. …
 
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