中国最高层“反内卷”犹如挤房地产泡沫 China’s involution problem

东谈西论

中国饮料市场上的咖啡、奶茶削价战仍在激烈开打。各连锁店纷纷推出不到10元人民币的精品咖啡，抢占市场。这背后有一个关键词——“内卷”。

“内卷”原本是一个社会学名词，指的是社会内部不断精细化和复杂化，但产生的价值却没有增加。

自2020年以来，这个词在中国互联网上迅速走红，用来形容社会过度竞争、低水平重复，而获得的回报却越来越少。例如职场人长期加班、学生参加越来越多的补习班，还有企业之间的价格战，都是“内卷”的表现。

“内卷”问题已经引起中共最高层的关注。去年7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出，要防止内卷式竞争。今年以来，“内卷”这个词更高频率地出现在中国官方话语中。

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与新加坡国立大学东亚研究所高级研究员陈波，深入分析中国高层为什么如此重视“内卷”问题？它会给中国经济带来什么危害？这一回高层真的有决心“反内卷”吗？

延伸阅读：

• 韩咏红：中国经济来到半年转折点
• 学历贬值前途迷茫 中国年轻一代成为“老鼠人”

China's economy faces a destructive cycle of "involution" (内卷,neijuan)—a condition where intense competition leads to diminishing returns, despite increased effort and investment. A striking example is the current coffee price war, where chains are slashing prices to gain market share. While cheap lattes draw in consumers, the strategy is squeezing profits, stifling innovation, and reflecting broader challenges across China's economy.

Originally a sociological term describing internal complexity without meaningful progress, “involution” went viral on Chinese social media in 2020. The term now captures a wide range of social and economic anxieties from students buried in tutoring classes, to workers trapped in grueling overtime, to companies locked in cutthroat price battles.

In July 2024, China's leadership responded to rising concerns by publicly addressing “neijuan-style” vicious competition in its Politburo meeting. The move signals growing official recognition that hypercompetition is undermining economic sustainability.

Can the Chinese government turn the tide? Can it move beyond growth at all costs, curb destructive price wars, and create an environment that rewards innovation and long-term value?

In this episode of the Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yonghong speaks to Dr Chen Bo, Senior Research Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. Together, they explore the roots of China’s economic involution, the government’s response and negative impacts on the Chinese economy.

Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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章节

1. 中国最高层“反内卷”犹如挤房地产泡沫 China’s involution problem (00:00:00)

2. 高层为何要强调“防内卷”？ (00:01:47)

3. 中国是否已进入通货紧缩 (00:13:05)