Post-Impeachment Attitudes Re: Trump, The Economy, 2020 and More

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Presidential pollster Mark Penn shares findings from a new Harvard CAPS Harris Poll, fielded among 2,527 registered voters between Jan. 27-29, 2020.
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President Trump’s approval rating is hovering near its all-time high at 46% on the strength of voter optimism about the economy. But his weakness among female voters has him trailing Democratic rivals in a hypothetical match-up early in his reelection bid. Our poll found 45 percent of voters say they will definitely or probably vote for a generic Democrat compared with 39 percent who said they will definitely or probably vote for Trump. Still, this number represents a 4-point move in Trump’s favor from where he was in July.
When pitting Trump’s bog of issues against a progressive democratic platform, Trump’s platform wins 59% to 41%. When pitting a centrist democrat platform against Trump’s, the centrist platform ekes through 52% to 47%. Taken together, there’s plenty of room for campaigns to find (and fight through) a path to victory.
The economy is Trump’s greatest asset at the moment, with 60 percent approving of the job he’s doing on jobs and economic growth. Fifty-one percent of voters say the economy is on the right track, including 60 percent of men and 44 percent of women. Forty-six percent of independents say the economy is on the right track, suggesting there is still room for improvement in both messaging and substance. Seventy-four percent of voters described the economy as strong or very strong, and a plurality, 47 percent, believe the economy will stay the same over the next six months. Thirty-one percent predict a recession, and 22 percent say they believe the economy will improve.
Forty percent of voters said their personal financial situation is improving, and 36 percent said they’re doing just as well. Only 20 percent said they are worse off than before.
Trump’s prospects have surprisingly increased throughout impeachment. Despite the senate trial, which has the attention of 67% of voters, sentiment on impeachment has not changed month-over-month with 44% saying impeach and remove from office, 15% wanting Trump to be censured by Congress, and 40% who say no action should be taken. 81% of voters think that the Senate is unlikely to vote to remove president Trump from office. And only a plurality of voters think Trump’s actions constitute impeachable offenses – respectively, 40% think Trump asking the Ukrainians to look into the Bidens is an impeachable offense and only 33% think Trump exerting executive privilege on his advisors amounts to the same. The rest either believe the actions were misconduct but not impeachable, or within presidential authority.
Lastly, Trump looks to be having a foreign policy moment: majorities of voters approve of the strike that killed Iranian General Soleimani, even before finding out that he was placed on the terrorist list by the Obama administration and responsible for the deaths of American military personnel abroad, information which increases support for the action. 67% believe that the strike by President Trump was justified and 58% say Trump was deliberate and calculated in his handling of the crisis. And 68% think the administrations phase 1 trade deal with China benefits the US over China, and the deal makes 54% more likely to support administration trade policies.