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蘇老師的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
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2022.01.07 國際新聞導讀-美國伊朗互試誠意、海地總理遭暗殺、美國駐伊拉克基地遭攻擊
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2022.01.07 國際新聞導讀-美國伊朗互試誠意、海地總理遭暗殺、美國駐伊拉克基地遭攻擊
美國：“上週談判取得了一些溫和進展”
美國國務院發言人內德·普萊斯表示，美國將“密切關注”，以確定伊朗是否真誠地重新加入伊朗核協議。
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 06:50
更新時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 13:41
2021 年 12 月 17 日，歐洲對外行動署 (EEAS) 副秘書長恩里克·莫拉 (Enrique Mora) 和伊朗首席核談判代表阿里·巴蓋里·卡尼 (Ali Bagheri Kani) 和代表團在奧地利維也納等待 JCPOA 聯合委員會會議的開始。
（圖片來源：歐盟駐維也納代表團/通過路透社的講義）
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華盛頓——國務院發言人內德·普萊斯週二表示，美國希望在本週間接談判期間維也納會談取得的進展的基礎上再接再厲。會談於1月3日恢復，目前正在進行中。
“此時我們可以說的是，上週的談判取得了一些適度的進展；我們希望在本週的基礎上再接再厲，”普萊斯在國務院新聞發布會上說。“很清楚的是，如果我們不能很快就相互恢復遵守情況達成諒解，伊朗加速採取的核步驟將越來越多地削弱 JCPOA 的防擴散好處。”
他說，美國將“密切關注”，以確定“伊朗人是否像我們一直在尋求相互遵守 JCPOA 那樣真誠和堅定”。
“我們一再強調，實現相互遵守 JCPOA 仍符合我們的國家利益，因為在這一刻，在這一天，JCPOA 帶來的不擴散利益是最好的結果。符合我們的國家利益，”他繼續說道。“這種情況不會持續太久，因為伊朗繼續採取核措施，只會削弱 2015 年協議將重新生效的保證的效用。這就是為什麼我們的首要任務仍然是實現並實施快速相互回歸以完全遵守 JCPOA。”
美國國務院發言人 Ned Price 於 2021 年 2 月 22 日在美國華盛頓特區的國務院每日新聞發布會上發表講話（圖片來源：NICHOLAS KAMM/POOL VIA REUTERS）
他還談到了可能解除制裁的問題。“我要說的是解除制裁和美國將採取的措施——在製裁方面，以及如果我們要實現相互恢復遵守伊朗核協議，伊朗將需要採取的核措施。JCPOA，這確實是目前在維也納進行的談判的核心，”普萊斯說。“他們一直是在維也納進行的這些談判的核心，在這些問題的一切都達成一致之前，什麼都沒有達成一致。所以我不想領先於我們現在的位置。”
“但即使取得了一些進展，基本情況仍然存在，”普萊斯補充道。“伊朗需要對其核計劃保持克制，並認真地在維也納進行談判。”
美國譴責朝鮮發射彈道導彈
朝鮮在其東海岸發射了一枚疑似彈道導彈，對鄰國韓國構成威脅。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 01:40
更新時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 16:09
朝鮮朝鮮中央通訊社 (KCNA) 於 2020 年 3 月 22 日發布的這張照片中，疑似導彈被發射。
（圖片來源：朝中社/路透社）
廣告
美國國務院發言人表示，美國周三譴責朝鮮發射彈道導彈，稱其違反了聯合國安理會的多項決議，並對平壤的鄰國構成威脅。
朝鮮週三在其東海岸發射了一枚疑似彈道導彈，就在韓國總統文在寅出席他希望最終連接分裂的朝鮮半島的鐵路線奠基儀式前幾個小時。
在與韓國和美國的談判陷入僵局的情況下，朝鮮自 10 月以來的首次發射突顯了領導人金正恩的新年誓言，即加強軍隊以應對不穩定的國際局勢。
韓國參謀長聯席會議 (JCS) 表示，這枚推測的導彈是在上午 8 點 10 分左右從內陸位置發射的，經過東海岸並進入大海。
幾個小時後，文在寅訪問了靠近朝鮮邊境的韓國東海岸城市高城，在那裡他為一條他稱之為半島“和平與地區平衡的墊腳石”的新鐵路線破土動工。
2018 年 4 月 27 日，韓國總統文在寅和朝鮮領導人金正恩在分隔兩韓的非軍事區內的板門店休戰村握手。 )
文在寅在儀式上的講話中承認發射引發了對緊張局勢的擔憂，並呼籲朝鮮為對話做出真誠的努力。
“我們不應該為了從根本上克服這種情況而放棄對話的希望，”他說。“如果韓朝共同努力，建立信任，和平終有一天會實現。”
擁有核武器的朝鮮明顯發射導彈突顯了文在寅在其五年任期於今年 5 月結束之前實現外交突破所面臨的挑戰。
通過鐵路重新連接兩國是 2018 年金正恩和文在寅會面的核心問題，但這些努力無濟於事，因為旨在說服朝鮮放棄核武器以換取放寬國際制裁的談判在 2019 年步履蹣跚。
金正恩的新年講話沒有提到韓國為重啟談判所做的努力，也沒有提到美國提出進行談判的提議，不過分析人士指出，這並不意味著他已經關閉了外交大門。
2021年世界糧食價格創10年新高
世界糧食價格在 2021 年上漲了 28%，達到 2011 年以來的最高平均水平，隨著經濟從 COVID-19 危機中復蘇，導致通貨膨脹更廣泛地飆升。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 6 日 11:39
2019 年 4 月 10 日，敘利亞阿勒頗卡拉薩區，一名男孩拿著世界糧食計劃署提供的食品援助紙箱
（圖片來源：路透社/OMAR SANADIKI）
廣告
聯合國糧食機構週四表示，世界糧食價格在連續四個月上漲後於 12 月回落，但在 2021 年上漲 28%，為 2011 年以來的最高平均水平。
糧食及農業組織 (FAO) 食品價格指數追踪全球貿易量最大的食品商品的國際價格，上月平均為 133.7 點，而 11 月修正後為 134.9。
之前給出的 11 月數字為 134.4。
2021 年全年，基準指數平均為 125.7 點，較 2020 年上漲 28.1%，為 2011 年 131.9 以來的最高點。
月度指數一直在 10 年高位運行，反映了過去一年收成受挫和需求旺盛。
2020 年 7 月 20 日，人們聚集在也門薩那的慈善廚房領取口糧。照片拍攝於 2020 年 7 月 20 日。（圖片來源：REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH）
該機構表示，除乳製品外，12月份食品價格指數中所有類別的價格均有所回落，植物油和食糖價格大幅下跌。
然而，它補充說，所有類別都在 2021 年出現了急劇增長。
隨著經濟活動從冠狀病毒危機中復蘇，食品價格上漲也助長了更廣泛的通脹飆升。
糧農組織警告說，依賴進口國家的食品成本上升使貧困人口面臨風險。
World food prices hit 10-year peak in 2021
World food prices have jumped 28% over 2021 for the highest average level since 2011, contributing to the broader surge in inflation as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 crisis.
By REUTERS
Published: JANUARY 6, 2022 11:39
A boy holds a cardboard box of food aid received from World Food Programme in Aleppo's Kalasa district, Syria, April 10, 2019
(photo credit: REUTERS/OMAR SANADIKI)
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World food prices eased in December after four consecutive monthly gains but jumped 28% over 2021 for the highest average level since 2011, the UN food agency said on Thursday.
The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.7 points last month compared with a revised 134.9 for November.
The November figure was previously given as 134.4.
For 2021 as a whole, the benchmark index averaged 125.7 points, up 28.1% from 2020 and the highest since 131.9 in 2011.
The monthly index has been running at 10-year highs, reflecting harvest setbacks and strong demand over the past year.
People crowd to get food rations from a charity kitchen in Sanaa, Yemen July 20, 2020. Picture taken July 20, 2020. (credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)
With the exception of dairy products, prices for all categories in the food price index eased in December, with vegetable oils and sugar falling significantly, the agency said.
However, all categories showed sharp increases over 2021, it added.
Higher food prices have also contributed to a broader surge in inflation as economic activity recovers from the coronavirus crisis.
The FAO has warned that higher food costs in import-reliant countries are putting poorer populations at risk.
Will statement by five powers block nuclear Armageddon? - analysis
2022 is still scary no matter what the five powers said on Monday and no matter what happens in the Iran nuclear talks.
Published: JANUARY 4, 2022 16:48
A mushroom cloud is seen caused by a nuclear bomb in this illustration.
(photo credit: PIXABAY)
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With all of the focus on Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, it is far from the only threat for a nuclear exchange, and there are many other countries that are more dangerous candidates for leading to worldwide nuclear Armageddon.
That is only one reason why Monday’s statement by the five powers – the US, Russia, China, England and France – against nuclear weapons is a nice thought. But it could be somewhat empty.
First, neither Iran nor these countries are the most likely candidates to use nuclear weapons in the near future, with North Korea and Pakistan often being the greatest concerns.
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Tehran is weeks away from sufficient uranium and then trying to spend six months to two years to solve other weaponization issues to get to its first nuclear weapon.
Pyongyang is estimated to already have 40-50 nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, attends a meeting with Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, chairwoman of Vietnam's National Assembly, at the National Assembly in Hanoi (credit: REUTERS)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is considered fanatical, unstable and unpredictable if his country were to fall into what he perceived as a desperate economic or security situation – even if a rational person might not view the situation as desperate.
Experts have theorized that the best way to keep Kim from using his country’s nuclear weapons has been a mix of offering diplomatic benefits for some kind of future disarmament or peace-encouraging deal, along with making it clear that if he started a major war, his country would lose worse.
Pakistan is another wild card. In theory, its approximate 165 nuclear weapons are kept under careful and stable lock and key by the military and intelligence apparatus. But some leaders of Pakistan have had radical ideologies and have aligned themselves with jihadist terrorist groups.
So no one really knows whether Pakistan can be counted on to think rationally if the wrong leader happened to be in power at the wrong time, such as during some kind of escalation with India, with which it has regular on-and-off conflicts over border issues.
The US, England, France, India and Israel (which, according to foreign sources, has 80-200 nuclear weapons) are not expected to act irresponsibly.
Generally, Russia and China are thought of as more responsible nuclear powers, given that Russia has had nuclear weapons since 1949 and China since 1962, and neither has used them despite many conflicts along the way.
But is that trust changing?
For an extended period before and after the fall of the USSR, Washington and Moscow cooperatively worked to reduce their nuclear missile arsenals, falling to 1,458 (Russia) and 1,389 (US) strategically deployed (there are thousands more on both sides that are not deployed).
Yet, in recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated the development of smaller “tactical” nuclear weapons, which do not violate the NEW START treaty that the two countries last year extended until at least 2026.
Meanwhile, Beijing still has only 350 nuclear weapons. But like Putin, it is said to be working hard on developing additional, more modern and harder-to-defend-against nuclear missiles. Hypersonic weapons and additional submarine-based nuclear weapons are only a few other new areas where the US could find itself outflanked.
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Might Putin consider using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine if an initial conventional invasion was not going as planned, or might he threaten using one against NATO if it dared to interfere?
Could the same question be applicable to Chinese President Xi Jinping if he tried to invade Taiwan or if the US or some other ally tried to come to the aid of Taipei?
In fact, it is the mix of the growing threats from Russia and China that led the Trump administration to forgo extending other nonproliferation treaties, and it might have even dropped NEW START had Joe Biden not beaten Trump for the US presidency.
To date, the Biden administration has not really arrived at what its new nuclear strategy should be in dealing with the rising threat from Putin and Jinping.
Portions of the US Democratic Party believe that Moscow and Beijing will restrain themselves if Washington leads by example by not modernizing its nuclear weapons and continuing to reduce its nuclear stockpiles even without an exact offset by the other side.
They say even a significantly reduced US nuclear arsenal would be more than enough to annihilate any adversary.
Others believe this is naive: that nuclear deterrence is about momentum and not just absolute numbers; that a new framework is needed, which includes China, lest the US reduce its arsenal while only getting a reduction from Russia.
All of this is further complicated by Putin’s desire to use the nuclear issue as a bargaining chip to roll American/NATO influence back from Ukraine and portions of the former USSR countries in Asia and Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe.
And after all of that, if Iran does get to the nuclear threshold, virtually all predictions are that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and maybe others will also seek nuclear weapons, dramatically expanding the nuclear club.
The more members there are in the club, especially in the volatile Middle East, the greater chance that some rogue general, coup leader or jihadist gets their hands on at least a “dirty” nuclear bomb and wreaks havoc against Israel or some Western country.
This makes for a scary 2022 no matter what the five powers said on Monday and no matter what happens in the Iran nuclear talks. And it looks even scarier if the talks do not block Tehran’s path to the bomb in the coming months.
五國的聲明會阻止核世界末日嗎？- 分析
無論周一五國說什麼，無論伊朗核談判發生什麼，2022年仍然令人恐懼。
作者：尤娜傑瑞米鮑勃
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 4 日 16:48
在此插圖中可以看到由核彈引起的蘑菇雲。
（照片來源：PIXABAY）
廣告
由於所有的注意力都集中在伊朗的核武器計劃上，它遠非核交換的唯一威脅，還有許多其他國家是導致全球核世界末日的更危險候選國。
這只是為什麼美國、俄羅斯、中國、英國和法國這五個大國周一發表反對核武器的聲明是個好主意的一個原因。但它可能有點空。
首先，伊朗和這些國家都不是近期內最有可能使用核武器的候選國，朝鮮和巴基斯坦往往是最大的擔憂。
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德黑蘭距離足夠的鈾還有幾週的時間，然後試圖用六個月到兩年的時間來解決其他武器化問題，以獲得它的第一個核武器。
據估計，平壤已經擁有 40-50 枚核武器。
朝鮮領導人金正恩在河內國會與越南國會主席阮氏金銀會面（圖片來源：REUTERS）
朝鮮領導人金正恩被認為是狂熱、不穩定和不可預測的，如果他的國家陷入他認為的絕望的經濟或安全局勢——即使一個理性的人可能不會認為這種情況是絕望的。
專家認為，阻止金正恩使用其國家核武器的最佳方法是為未來某種裁軍或促進和平的協議提供外交利益，同時明確表示，如果他發動一場重大戰爭，他的國家會輸得更慘。
巴基斯坦是另一張外卡。理論上，它的大約 165 件核武器被軍事和情報機構小心和穩定地鎖定和鎖定。但巴基斯坦的一些領導人有激進的意識形態，並與聖戰恐怖組織結盟。
因此，沒有人真正知道如果錯誤的領導人碰巧在錯誤的時間掌權，例如在與印度的某種升級期間，巴基斯坦是否可以理性地思考邊界問題。
美國、英國、法國、印度和以色列（據外國消息來源稱，它們擁有 80-200 枚核武器）預計不會不負責任地採取行動。
一般而言，俄羅斯和中國被認為是更負責任的核大國，因為俄羅斯自 1949 年以來擁有核武器，中國自 1962 年以來擁有核武器，儘管沿途發生了許多衝突，但雙方都沒有使用過核武器。
但這種信任會改變嗎？
在蘇聯解體前後的很長一段時間裡，華盛頓和莫斯科合作削減了他們的核導彈庫，戰略部署的數量分別為 1,458 枚（俄羅斯）和 1,389 枚（雙方還有數千枚未部署） ）。
然而，近年來，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 升級了小型“戰術”核武器的開發，這些武器並未違反兩國去年至少延長至 2026 年的新 START 條約。
與此同時，北京仍然只有350枚核武器。但與普京一樣，據說它正在努力開發更多、更現代、更難防禦的核導彈。高超音速武器和額外的潛基核武器只是美國可以發現自己包抄的其他幾個新領域。
如果最初的常規入侵沒有按計劃進行，普京可能會考慮對烏克蘭使用戰術核武器，或者如果北約敢於乾涉，他可能會威脅使用戰術核武器對付烏克蘭？
如果中國國家主席習近平試圖入侵台灣，或者如果美國或其他盟友試圖幫助台北，同樣的問題是否適用於他？
事實上，正是來自俄羅斯和中國日益增長的威脅的混合導致特朗普政府放棄延長其他核不擴散條約，如果喬拜登沒有擊敗特朗普競選美國總統，它甚至可能放棄新起點。
迄今為止，拜登政府還沒有真正確定其新的核戰略應該是什麼，以應對來自普京和金平的日益加劇的威脅。
美國民主黨的部分成員認為，如果華盛頓以身作則，即使沒有對方完全抵消，也不對其核武器進行現代化改造並繼續減少其核儲備，莫斯科和北京將克制自己。
他們說，即使美國核武庫大幅減少，也足以消滅任何對手。
其他人認為這是天真的：核威懾是關於動量而不僅僅是絕對數字；需要一個新的框架，其中包括中國，以免美國削減其軍火庫而只能從俄羅斯那裡得到削減。
由於普京希望利用核問題作為討價還價的籌碼，將美國/北約的影響力從烏克蘭和亞洲的前蘇聯國家的部分地區以及東歐的華沙條約國家撤回，所有這一切都變得更加複雜。
畢竟，如果伊朗真的達到核門檻，幾乎所有的預測都是沙特阿拉伯、埃及和也許其他國家也將尋求核武器，從而大大擴大核俱樂部。
俱樂部成員越多，尤其是在動蕩的中東，某些流氓將軍、政變領導人或聖戰分子獲得至少“骯髒”核彈並對以色列或某些西方國家造成嚴重破壞的可能性就越大。
無論五國周一說什麼，無論伊朗核談判發生什麼，這都會使 2022 年變得可怕。如果談判沒有在未來幾個月阻止德黑蘭通往炸彈的道路，那看起來會更可怕。
Will statement by five powers block nuclear Armageddon? - analysis
2022 is still scary no matter what the five powers said on Monday and no matter what happens in the Iran nuclear talks.
Published: JANUARY 4, 2022 16:48
A mushroom cloud is seen caused by a nuclear bomb in this illustration.
(photo credit: PIXABAY)
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With all of the focus on Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, it is far from the only threat for a nuclear exchange, and there are many other countries that are more dangerous candidates for leading to worldwide nuclear Armageddon.
That is only one reason why Monday’s statement by the five powers – the US, Russia, China, England and France – against nuclear weapons is a nice thought. But it could be somewhat empty.
First, neither Iran nor these countries are the most likely candidates to use nuclear weapons in the near future, with North Korea and Pakistan often being the greatest concerns.
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Tehran is weeks away from sufficient uranium and then trying to spend six months to two years to solve other weaponization issues to get to its first nuclear weapon.
Pyongyang is estimated to already have 40-50 nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, attends a meeting with Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, chairwoman of Vietnam's National Assembly, at the National Assembly in Hanoi (credit: REUTERS)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is considered fanatical, unstable and unpredictable if his country were to fall into what he perceived as a desperate economic or security situation – even if a rational person might not view the situation as desperate.
Experts have theorized that the best way to keep Kim from using his country’s nuclear weapons has been a mix of offering diplomatic benefits for some kind of future disarmament or peace-encouraging deal, along with making it clear that if he started a major war, his country would lose worse.
Pakistan is another wild card. In theory, its approximate 165 nuclear weapons are kept under careful and stable lock and key by the military and intelligence apparatus. But some leaders of Pakistan have had radical ideologies and have aligned themselves with jihadist terrorist groups.
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So no one really knows whether Pakistan can be counted on to think rationally if the wrong leader happened to be in power at the wrong time, such as during some kind of escalation with India, with which it has regular on-and-off conflicts over border issues.
The US, England, France, India and Israel (which, according to foreign sources, has 80-200 nuclear weapons) are not expected to act irresponsibly.
Generally, Russia and China are thought of as more responsible nuclear powers, given that Russia has had nuclear weapons since 1949 and China since 1962, and neither has used them despite many conflicts along the way.
But is that trust changing?
For an extended period before and after the fall of the USSR, Washington and Moscow cooperatively worked to reduce their nuclear missile arsenals, falling to 1,458 (Russia) and 1,389 (US) strategically deployed (there are thousands more on both sides that are not deployed).
Yet, in recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated the development of smaller “tactical” nuclear weapons, which do not violate the NEW START treaty that the two countries last year extended until at least 2026.
Meanwhile, Beijing still has only 350 nuclear weapons. But like Putin, it is said to be working hard on developing additional, more modern and harder-to-defend-against nuclear missiles. Hypersonic weapons and additional submarine-based nuclear weapons are only a few other new areas where the US could find itself outflanked.
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Might Putin consider using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine if an initial conventional invasion was not going as planned, or might he threaten using one against NATO if it dared to interfere?
Could the same question be applicable to Chinese President Xi Jinping if he tried to invade Taiwan or if the US or some other ally tried to come to the aid of Taipei?
In fact, it is the mix of the growing threats from Russia and China that led the Trump administration to forgo extending other nonproliferation treaties, and it might have even dropped NEW START had Joe Biden not beaten Trump for the US presidency.
To date, the Biden administration has not really arrived at what its new nuclear strategy should be in dealing with the rising threat from Putin and Jinping.
Portions of the US Democratic Party believe that Moscow and Beijing will restrain themselves if Washington leads by example by not modernizing its nuclear weapons and continuing to reduce its nuclear stockpiles even without an exact offset by the other side.
They say even a significantly reduced US nuclear arsenal would be more than enough to annihilate any adversary.
Others believe this is naive: that nuclear deterrence is about momentum and not just absolute numbers; that a new framework is needed, which includes China, lest the US reduce its arsenal while only getting a reduction from Russia.
All of this is further complicated by Putin’s desire to use the nuclear issue as a bargaining chip to roll American/NATO influence back from Ukraine and portions of the former USSR countries in Asia and Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe.
And after all of that, if Iran does get to the nuclear threshold, virtually all predictions are that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and maybe others will also seek nuclear weapons, dramatically expanding the nuclear club.
The more members there are in the club, especially in the volatile Middle East, the greater chance that some rogue general, coup leader or jihadist gets their hands on at least a “dirty” nuclear bomb and wreaks havoc against Israel or some Western country.
This makes for a scary 2022 no matter what the five powers said on Monday and no matter what happens in the Iran nuclear talks. And it looks even scarier if the talks do not block Tehran’s path to the bomb in the coming months.
海地總理在暗殺未遂中倖存下來
海地總理阿里爾·亨利的辦公室週一表示，“土匪和恐怖分子”曾試圖在教堂開槍射擊海地總理。
通過路透
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 3 日 21:58
海地總理阿里爾·亨利於 2021 年 11 月 24 日在海地太子港舉行的新內閣部長就職儀式上發表講話。
（照片來源：路透社/RALPH TEDY EROL）
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他的辦公室在一份聲明中說，槍手在周六紀念加勒比國家獨立的活動中試圖暗殺海地總理阿里爾亨利，但未成功。
亨利的辦公室週一表示，“土匪和恐怖分子”曾試圖在北部城市戈納伊夫的一座教堂射殺首相，那裡正在舉行獨立 218 週年紀念儀式。
社交媒體上播放的視頻片段顯示，當武裝團體開始在戈納伊夫大教堂外開槍時，亨利和他的隨行人員爭先恐後地沖向他們的車輛。
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當地媒體稱，1人在槍聲中喪生，2人受傷。國家警察無法立即確認傷亡人數。
總理辦公室表示，已經對向亨利車隊開槍的嫌疑人發出了逮捕令。
2021 年 10 月 21 日，海地太子港前警察局長萊昂·查爾斯辭職後，海地總理阿里爾·亨利在任命 Frantz Elbe 為海地國家警察局局長的儀式上發表講話。（圖片來源：REUTERS/RALPH泰迪埃羅）
這次襲擊再次引發了對海地官員安全的擔憂，自7 月總統喬維內爾·莫伊斯 (Jovenel Moise)被暗殺以來，海地一直陷入政治動盪。
亨利的政府正面臨越來越多的合法性挑戰，在莫伊茲被疑似僱傭軍殺害後不到兩週，亨利就宣誓就任總理。該國尚未確定選舉莫伊斯繼任者的日期。
Haitian prime minister survives assassination attempt
Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry's office said on Monday that 'bandits and terrorists' had tried to shoot the prime minister at a church.
By REUTERS
Published: JANUARY 3, 2022 21:58
Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry speaks at an investiture ceremony for new cabinet ministers, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, November 24, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/RALPH TEDY EROL)
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Gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry during an event on Saturday commemorating the Caribbean country's independence, his office said in a statement.
Henry's office said on Monday that "bandits and terrorists" had tried to shoot the prime minister at a church in the northern city of Gonaives where the ceremony marking the 218th anniversary of independence was taking place.
Video footage broadcast on social media showed Henry and his entourage scrambling toward their vehicles as an armed group began shooting outside the cathedral in Gonaives.
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Local media said one person was killed and two were injured in the gunfire. National police were unable to immediately confirm the casualties.
The prime minister's office said arrest warrants had been issued for the suspects who fired on Henry's convoy.
Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry speaks at a ceremony for the installation of Frantz Elbe as Chief of the Haitian National Police after the resignation of former Chief Leon Charles, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti October 21, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/RALPH TEDY EROL)
The attack has renewed concerns about the safety of officials in Haiti, which has been mired in political turmoil since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July.
Henry, whose administration is facing mounting challenges to its legitimacy, was sworn in as prime minister barely two weeks after Moise's killing at the hands of suspected mercenaries. The country has yet to set a date to elect Moise's successor.
伊朗與美國在伊拉克和敘利亞的影子戰爭是否即將爆發？- 分析
現在，已經出現的影子衝突，從巴格達一直延伸到對美國在敘利亞坦夫駐軍的襲擊，正在增長，並有爆發的風險。
發佈時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 22:10
更新時間： 2022 年 1 月 5 日 22:11
2022 年 1 月 4 日，在伊拉克安巴爾省的 Ain al-Asad 空軍基地可以看到被擊落的無人機殘骸。
（圖片來源：伊拉克媒體安全小組/通過路透社提供的資料）
廣告
在過去的三天裡，親伊朗的團體使用無人機和火箭三度瞄準美國在伊拉克的軍隊和設施。這恰逢2020 年 1 月在美國空襲中喪生的伊斯蘭革命衛隊聖城旅指揮官卡西姆·蘇萊曼尼 (Qasem Soleimani) 逝世週年紀念日。然而，襲擊事件的增加似乎不僅僅是一個像徵性的周年紀念，斷斷續續的火箭發射場景；它可能會變得更大，因為襲擊還沒有擴展到敘利亞，而美國以反擊作為回應。
火箭和無人機襲擊伊拉克軍事基地（圖片來源：路透社）
一個錯誤的舉動可能會導致人員傷亡，這可能會使美國和伊朗之間的影子戰爭公開化，可能導致敘利亞發生衝突，進而影響以色列。親伊朗組織利用敘利亞打擊以色列，並將美國和以色列視為敵人。
在過去的幾天裡，看起來親伊朗的團體將使用無人機以像徵性的攻擊方式攻擊美軍。美國已經在巴格達、al-Asad 基地以及可能在伊拉克的埃爾比勒安裝了反無人機解決方案。在 1 月 4 日襲擊 al-Asad 基地後發布的一段視頻中，可以看到反無人機或所謂的反無人機起火，該基地是伊拉克軍隊的所在地，一些美軍在那裡設有設施。在美國殺死蘇萊曼尼後，同一基地於 2020 年 1 月遭到伊朗彈道導彈的襲擊。1 月 4 日前往基地的兩架無人機被導彈和機槍火力相結合，該系統稱為 C-RAM。
然而，1 月 3 日在巴格達和 4 日在 al-Asad 基地的無人機襲擊僅僅是個開始。巴格達的火箭彈是一種較舊的 240 毫米火箭彈，比 2019 年針對駐伊拉克美軍的數十次襲擊中使用的 107 毫米火箭彈大。在敘利亞，更多的火箭，據傳是 122 毫米格拉德火箭，也被用於瞄準代爾祖爾附近的美軍。美國進行了報復。隨後有報導稱第二天晚上在阿薩德發射了火箭。
值得注意的是，在過去，至少自 2019 年底以來，美國有時會通過打擊敘利亞的親伊朗團體來回應伊拉克的襲擊事件。這部分是因為美國領導的聯盟可以在敘利亞為所欲為，而敘利亞政權不能要求美國離開它在敘利亞與伊斯蘭國作戰。在伊拉克，美國的局勢更加岌岌可危。
議會中強大的親伊朗聲音希望美國離開伊拉克。美國已表示已結束戰鬥行動，但在伊拉克仍有數千名人員。議會中反對美國的聲音往往與伊拉克的親伊朗民兵有關，這些民兵與伊斯蘭革命衛隊有直接聯繫，這意味著美國不想回應伊拉克的襲擊並造成人員傷亡。當美國在 2019 年確實以空襲作為回應時，它導致了對美國駐巴格達大使館的襲擊，美國的回應是殺死了蘇萊曼尼和伊拉克親伊朗領導人阿布·馬赫迪·穆罕迪斯。正是這個循環使我們走到了現在的位置。
最新報導表明，美國確實在敘利亞做出了回應。美國有線電視新聞網指出：“美國領導的聯軍在周三早上遭到疑似伊朗支持的民兵襲擊後進行了反擊，他們向位於敘利亞東部靠近伊拉克邊境的基地發射了八輪間接射擊，但據報導沒有聯軍傷亡。聯盟的聲明。”
根據美國的一份聲明，聯軍“迅速做出反應，並向敘利亞馬亞丁郊外的襲擊源頭髮射了六輪大砲”。Mayadin 被稱為伊朗活動的中心。它位於從伊拉克邊境的阿爾布卡邁勒到代爾祖爾的同一條路線上。
這就是親伊朗民兵在這片土地上裝扮的地方。在 Albukamal 有一個名為伊瑪目阿里的伊朗基地。早在 2018 年 6 月，一次空襲襲擊了位於阿爾布卡邁勒的 Kataib 真主黨總部。Kataib真主黨由與伊斯蘭革命衛隊有聯繫並在伊拉克發揮關鍵作用的阿布·馬赫迪·穆罕迪斯領導。正是這個親伊朗的民兵網絡將敘利亞與伊拉克聯繫起來，並通過 Mayadin 和 Albukamal 等地將伊朗與真主黨聯繫起來。
現在，已經出現的影子衝突，從巴格達一直延伸到對美國在敘利亞坦夫駐軍的襲擊，正在增長，並有爆發的風險。這也可能影響到以色列，因為過去有外國報導稱，親伊朗組織針對以色列在敘利亞的空襲將目標對準了坦夫。它還可能影響在維也納舉行的伊朗協議談判。
Is Iran vs. US shadow war in Iraq and Syria about to explode? - analysis
Now, the shadow conflict that has emerged, stretching from Baghdad to attacks on the US in Tanf garrison in Syria, is growing and risks exploding into the open.
Published: JANUARY 5, 2022 22:10
Updated: JANUARY 5, 2022 22:11
The remains of the wreckage of a drone that was shot down are seen at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province, Iraq January 4, 2022.
(photo credit: IRAQI MEDIA SECURITY CELL/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
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Pro-Iranian groups used drones and rockets to target US forces and facilities in Iraq three times in the last three days. This coincided with the anniversary of the death of IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, killed in a US airstrike in January 2020. However, the uptick in attacks seems to be more than just a symbolic anniversary desultory rocket fire scenario; it could be growing into something larger because the attacks have not extended to Syria and the US responded with counter-fire.
Rocket and drone attacks on Iraqi military bases (Credit: Reuters)
One false move could lead to casualties and that could bring the shadow war between the US and Iran out into the open, possibly leading to clashes in Syria which could affect Israel. Pro-Iran groups have used Syria to strike at Israel and view the US and Israel as enemies.
Over the last several days, it looked like pro-Iran groups were going to use drones to attack US forces in symbolic attacks. The US has installed counter-drone solutions in Baghdad, al-Asad base and likely in Erbil as well, in Iraq. The counter-drone, or what is called counter-UAS, the fire was seen in a video published after a January 4 attack on the al-Asad base, one that houses Iraqi forces and where some US forces have a facility. The same base was attacked by Iranian ballistic missiles in January 2020 after the US killed Soleimani. The two drones that headed for the base on January 4 were hit with a combination of missile and machine-gun fire, a system known as C-RAM.
However, the drone attacks on January 3 in Baghdad, and on the 4th at al-Asad base were just the beginning. The rockets in Baghdad were an older 240mm variety, larger than the 107mm rockets that were used in dozens of attacks in 2019 against US forces in Iraq. In Syria, more rockets, rumored to be 122mm Grad rockets, were also used to target US forces near Deir Ezzor. The US responded in retaliation. Reports of rocket fired the next night in al-Asad followed.
It is important to note that in the past, at least since late 2019, the US responded to attacks in Iraq by sometimes striking pro-Iran groups in Syria. This is partly because the US-led coalition can do as it wants in Syria and the Syrian regime can’t ask the US to leave it is in Syria to fight ISIS. In Iraq, the US situation is more precarious.
Powerful pro-Iran voices in parliament want the US to leave Iraq. The US has said it ended combat operations but has thousands of personnel in Iraq. The voices in parliament who oppose the US are often linked to pro-Iranian militias in Iraq that have direct ties to the IRGC, which means the US doesn’t want to respond to attacks in Iraq and cause casualties. When the US did respond with airstrikes in 2019, it led to an attack on the US embassy in Baghdad and the US responded by killing Soleimani and Iraqi pro-Iran leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. It is that cycle that led us to where we are now.
The latest reports indicate that the US did respond in Syria. CNN noted: “US-led coalition forces fired back after they were attacked Wednesday morning by suspected Iranian-backed militias who fired eight rounds of indirect fire at their base in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, though there were no coalition casualties, according to a statement from the coalition.”
The coalition "responded swiftly and fired six rounds of artillery towards the point of origin of the attack just outside Mayadin, Syria," according to a US statement. Mayadin is known as a center of Iranian activity. It is in the same route from Albukamal on the border with Iraq to Deir Ezzor.
This is where pro-Iran militias festoon the landscape. At Albukamal there is an Iranian base called Imam Ali. Back in June 2018, an airstrike hit a Kataib Hezbollah headquarters in Albukamal. Kataib Hezbollah was led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis which is linked to the IRGC and plays a key role in Iraq. It is this network of pro-Iran militias that link Syria to Iraq and link Iran to Hezbollah via places like Mayadin and Albukamal.
Now, the shadow conflict that has emerged, stretching from Baghdad to attacks on the US in Tanf garrison in Syria, is growing and risks exploding into the open. This could affect Israel as well because foreign reports have said in the past that pro-Iran groups targeted Tanf in response to Israeli airstrikes in Syria. It could also affect the Iran deal negotiations in Vienna.
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