外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
Manage episode 298873122 series 2948782
這張 2016 年 1 月 2 日的照片顯示了南非開普敦附近懸掛利比里亞國旗的油輪默瑟街（Johan Victor via AP）
與此同時，伊朗國有新聞網絡 Al-Alam 援引“消息靈通人士”的話說，這次襲擊是對以色列上週在敘利亞發動襲擊造成“兩名抵抗者”死亡的回應。
在周五晚上的一份聲明中，外交部長亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 表示，他一直與英國外長多米尼克·拉布 (Dominic Raab) 保持聯繫，並“向他指出需要對襲擊做出嚴厲回應。”
2021 年 7 月 19 日，在以色列空襲後，敘利亞北部城市阿勒頗附近發生爆炸（截圖/推特）
襲擊發生後，國防部長本尼·甘茨 (Benny Gantz) 於週五與以色列國防軍參謀長阿維夫·科哈維 (Aviv Kohavi) 和其他國防官員進行了緊急討論。
這次襲擊是自 2019 年以來在地區性航運襲擊中迄今為止最為人所知的海上暴力事件。在德黑蘭與世界大國的核協議破裂之際，美國、以色列和其他國家將襲擊歸咎於伊朗。
第 12 頻道和第 13 頻道新聞援引一位不願透露姓名的以色列高級官員的話說，死難者顯然是羅馬尼亞的船長，而這名英國男子是一名保安。
說明：視頻中的屏幕截圖據稱顯示了 2021 年 2 月 26 日在波斯灣發生神秘爆炸而受損的一艘以色列貨船的伊朗無人機鏡頭。（YouTube）
Zodiac Maritime 是一家總部位於倫敦的公司，隸屬於以色列大亨 Eyal Ofer。本月早些時候，Ofer 公司以前擁有的一艘駛往阿聯酋的船隻在印度洋北部被擊中。
在伊朗革命衛隊網站 Sepahnews 於 2021 年 5 月 21 日發布的這張照片中，一架新的加沙無人機展示在伊朗的一個未公開位置。（Sepahnews 通過美聯社）
英國軍方英國海事貿易行動部早些時候發表的一份簡短的初步聲明稱，正在對襲擊事件進行調查，稱襲擊事件發生在星期四深夜，就在阿曼馬西拉島的東北部。該地點位於阿曼首都馬斯喀特東南 300 多公里（185 英里）處。
以色列 IDC Herzliya 大學的伊朗外交和安全專家 Meir Javedanfar 告訴法新社，這次襲擊“很可能是伊朗”。
Javedanfar 表示，伊朗人“在應對伊朗境內與以色列有關的襲擊時感到非常不利”，包括 4 月份據報導由以色列執行的對納坦茲鈾濃縮場的襲擊。
‘Iran is a global problem’: Israel weighs response to deadly attack on ship
Defense chiefs meet after suicide drone apparently targets Israeli-operated vessel near Oman, killing two foreign crewmen; Iranian media say attack was response to strikes in Syria
This Jan. 2, 2016 photo shows the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Mercer Street off Cape Town, South Africa (Johan Victor via AP)
Israel’s defense leadership convened Friday night to discuss what it believes to be an Iranian attack on a ship with Israeli ties that killed two foreign crewmen, as a senior government source accused Tehran of “sowing destruction” and said it was proving itself to be “a global problem.”
Meanwhile, state-owned Iranian news network Al-Alam, citing “well-informed sources,” said the attack was in response to a reported Israeli strike in Syria that killed “two resistance men” last week.
Two ship crewmen, a British and Romanian national, died in Thursday night’s attack off the coast of Oman on the oil tanker Mercer Street.
An unnamed US official told The Associated Press it appeared that a so-called “suicide drone” was used in the attack.
A senior Israeli government source said on condition of anonymity Friday evening that “Iran is sowing violence and destruction in every corner of the region. They were so eager to attack an Israeli target that they’ve embroiled themselves and incriminated themselves in the killing of foreign citizens.”
The source said that with a new hardline Iranian president set to be sworn in, “the masks are coming off and no one can pretend they don’t know the character of the Iranian regime.
“Iran isn’t just Israel’s problem, it is a global problem, and its behavior endangers free global shipping and trade. Our campaign against them will continue.”
In a statement Friday night, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said he was in continuous contact with his British counterpart Dominic Raab and had “noted to him the need to respond severely to the attack.”
“Iran is not just an Israeli problem, but an exporter of terror, destruction and instability that hurt us all,” he said. “The world must not be silent in the face of Iranian terror.”
Explosions seen near the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on July 19, 2021, following a reported Israeli airstrike (Screencapture/Twitter)
In the wake of the attack, Defense Minister Benny Gantz called an urgent discussion with IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi and other defense officials on Friday.
An Israeli official cited by the Ynet news site hinted at possible retaliation, saying it would be difficult for Israel to ignore the latest attack.
Walla news cited an Israeli official saying, “The only question is how and when we’ll respond.”
Analysts said the attack bore all the hallmarks of tit-for-tat exchanges in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, in which vessels linked to each nation have been targeted in waters around the Gulf.
The assault represented the worst-known maritime violence so far in regional attacks on shipping since 2019. The US, Israel and others have blamed the attacks on Iran amid the unraveling of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
An unnamed senior Israeli official cited by Channels 12 and 13 news said the Romanian fatality was apparently the captain, while the British man was a security guard.
“This is an Iranian terror attack that killed two innocent men, harming international shipping,” the official said.
Illustrative: Screen capture from video allegedly showing Iranian drone footage of an Israeli-owned cargo ship that suffered damage from a mysterious explosion in the Persian Gulf, February 26, 2021. (YouTube)
Zodiac Maritime is a London-based company belonging to Israeli tycoon Eyal Ofer. Earlier this month, a UAE-bound vessel previously owned by Ofer’s company was struck in the northern Indian Ocean.
The company said that while it operates the Liberia-flagged “Mercer Street” oil tanker, the owner of the ship is Japanese.
It added on Friday it was not aware of any other injuries apart from the two crewmen who died.
“Our primary concern remains the safety and well-being of everyone on board and all those affected by the situation. Details of the incident are still being established and an investigation into the incident is currently underway,” the company added.
It later said the ship was “sailing under the control of her crew and under her own power… to a safe location with a US naval escort.”
In this photo released on May 21, 2021, by Sepahnews, the website of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a new Gaza drone is displayed in an undisclosed location in Iran. (Sepahnews via AP)
A brief initial statement earlier from the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said an investigation was underway into the attack, which it described as happening late Thursday night just northeast of the Omani island of Masirah. The location is over 300 kilometers (185 miles) southeast of Oman’s capital, Muscat.
Meir Javedanfar, an expert on Iranian diplomacy and security at Israel’s IDC Herzliya university, told AFP the attack was “most probably Iran.”
Javedanfar said Iranians “feel badly disadvantaged when it comes to responding to attacks inside Iran which have been associated to Israel,” including an April strike on the Natanz uranium enrichment site reportedly executed by Israel.
An attack on a maritime vessel “is one area where [Iranians] feel they can try to at least retaliate,” he added.
But he assessed the fundamental dynamics of the rivalry would change little. “Both sides will continue what they’re doing,” he said.
In recent months, Israel and Iran have accused each other of attacking a number of merchant ships, damaging them with explosives. The vessels in each case were only lightly damaged and there were no injuries in the incidents.
Emanuel Fabian contributed to this report.
國防和安全分析員法爾辛·納迪米 (Farzin Nadimi) 表示，其中一架無人機直接瞄準油輪的橋樑，以殺人。
2021 年 7 月 31 日 20:26
國防和安全分析師 Farzin Nadimi 寫道，獨特的“攻擊被設計成無情的：其中一架無人機直接瞄準油輪的橋樑，以殺死人，因為它是為了報復 4 月 24 日在巴尼亞斯襲擊黎巴嫩/伊朗人產品運輸船 Wisdom，其中 3 人遇難，包括 2 名船員 [原文如此]。” 他指出，“這次攻擊是對 CSAV Tyndall 的 7 月 5 日攻擊的後續行動，這是一次錯誤識別。如果以色列選擇以實物報復，伊朗也會這樣做。” 伊朗的 Al-Alam TV 表示，這次襲擊是對 7 月 22 日在敘利亞庫賽爾附近的 Al-Dabaa 空軍基地發動的空襲的報復。
資深戰地記者 Elijah Magnier 斷言這次襲擊也代表了一個新階段。“伊朗對以色列發動了一場‘戰爭之間的戰鬥’。以色列對敘利亞“抵抗軸心”成員的殺害不會被忽視。在#Syria 襲擊al-Daba'a 機場後，以色列期待#Iran 做出反應。因此，它應該停止扮演受害者並了解未來每一次殺戮都會遇到類似的行為，”他寫道。
所有這些都指向升級，我昨天在一份報告中提到了這一點。它還指向新的無人機技術可能被使用。但是，在線進行的分析和討論似乎傳達了不同的信息。消息是伊朗進入了報復性消息的新階段。過去在 2019 年 5 月和 2019 年 5 月和 6 月與美國的緊張局勢期間，它確實打擊了航運，甚至是其他商船，現在它更進一步。這涉及無人機的致命打擊。伊朗是否會冒著該地區緊張局勢潛在增長的風險？似乎計算出這是一種傳達有關敘利亞和其他地方緊張局勢的信息的方式。多年來，伊朗一直誓言要對抗以色列。它通常依賴代理或威脅的合理否認。例如，2018 年秋季，真主黨在戈蘭附近設立了一個小組，向以色列發射無人機。此外，伊朗於 2018 年 2 月和 2021 年 5 月在敘利亞使用無人機飛入以色列領空。但在每種情況下，伊朗的行為都沒有傷害任何人。其代理人在這方面似乎保持沉默。哈馬斯在 5 月被動員起來推動與以色列的緊張局勢，導致了為期十天的戰爭。這場戰爭有利於哈馬斯，也可能被伊朗用來測試以色列的反應。在那場衝突期間，來自敘利亞和黎巴嫩的火箭彈，並聲稱伊朗支持的胡塞武裝在未來可能會加入這樣的衝突，指向伊朗更大的地區目標。
然而，另一方面，伊朗對其他反應一直很謹慎。2019 年 1 月，當以色列前參謀長告訴紐約時報，以色列在敘利亞進行了數千次空襲時，伊朗沒有回應。伊朗似乎也不願對其聲稱的對納坦茲等核設施的破壞性襲擊和殺害一名核官員的行為採取太多行動。2021 年 6 月，《耶路撒冷郵報》報導稱，前摩薩德領導人尤西·科恩曾討論過針對伊朗的行動。分析人士的言論是，伊朗正在專門針對敘利亞“抵抗”成員在 7 月 22 日或 4 月的襲擊中喪生進行報復。伊朗表示，它將使阿曼灣成為以色列的“敘利亞、”從某種意義上說，把它變成了一場對所有人的自由報復和它自己的“戰爭之間的戰役”，在那裡它可以自由地採取行動。按照這個邏輯，它可能會在那裡發動一場消耗戰。它可能會打擊商業的軟肋並針對無辜的人。伊朗的信息是，水手和船員在與以任何方式與以色列有聯繫的船隻上簽字時應該小心。阿曼灣附近的商業依賴於美國第五艦隊和英國以及其他地區大國的海上安全。
伊朗是不是等到英國伊麗莎白女王在南海才搞這件事的？這個答案是未知的。但伊朗似乎確實在暗示其無人機具有新能力，或者至少將在該領域發揮作用。這當然可能只是關於伊朗下一步行動的信息。伊朗也一直在騷擾美國在伊拉克的軍事設施，但自 2020 年春天以來，迄今為止還沒有殺死任何人。這是因為伊朗對使用無人機和非對稱攻擊很謹慎，並且知道傷亡會增加報復的機會。
Iran trying to draw retaliation red line at sea against Israel - analysis
One of the drones was directly aimed at the tanker's bridge, to kill people, defense and security analyst Farzin Nadimi has stated.
JULY 31, 2021 20:26
An oil tanker is seen after it was attacked at the Gulf of Oman
(photo credit: ISNA/REUTERS)
Within hours of reports that an Israel-linked ship had been targeted by drones off the coast of Oman some pro-Iranian social media accounts and media began to discuss the attack as “retaliation” for what they claim are Israeli attacks. The claims appear to point to a new Iranian red line that is being drawn at sea. The message from Tehran is that this is where Iran will strike. Iran has the drones and weapons, such as mines and IRGC fast boats, to target commercial vessels. It has done so over the last several years. It is saying it will strike at what it sees as a soft underbelly of Israel, or a kind of weak link, which is commercial shipping.
What is Iran openly saying? Press TV released a clip on Saturday claiming that “informed sources believe that the raid has been in response to an Israeli missile attack on Syria.” Press TV quotes western media and Israeli sources, appearing to launder information on the attack to others. What matters here is the overall depiction of this attack as an escalation, a response and a new type of response. This is because all the former attacks did not appear to try to inflict casualties. This attack apparently involved precision drone strikes aimed at areas where crew would have been on the ship.
Defense and security analyst Farzin Nadimi writes that that the unique “Attack was designed to be merciless: one of the drones was directly aimed at the tanker's bridge, to kill people, because it was in retaliation for April 24 attack off Baniyas against Lebanese/Iranian product carrier Wisdom, in which 3 were killed, incl 2 crews [sic].” He notes that “this attack was a follow-up to the Jul 5 attack on CSAV Tyndall which was a misidentification. If Israel chooses to retaliate in kind, Iran will do the same.” Al-Alam TV in Iran says the attack was retaliation for a July 22 airstrike near Qusayr in Syria at Al-Dabaa airbase.
Veteran war correspondent Elijah Magnier asserts that this attack represents a new phase as well. “Iran started a ‘battle between wars’ against Israel. The Israeli killing of members of the ‘Axis of the Resistance’ in Syria won't be disregarded. Israel was expecting a reaction from #Iran following the attack in #Syria against al-Daba'a airport. Therefore, it should stop playing the victim and understand that every act of killing will be met by a similar act in the future,” he writes.
Meanwhile Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has slammed Iran in the context of the incident and he has spoken with the UK’s Foreign Secretary. "Iran is not just an Israeli problem, but an exporter of terrorism, destruction and instability that harms us all. The world must not be silent in the face of Iranian terrorism," Lapid said.
All of this points to escalation, which I noted yesterday in a report. It also points to
potentially being used. However, the analysis and discussion that is taking place online appear to have a different message. The message is that Iran has entered a new stage of retaliatory messaging. Where in the past it did strike at shipping, even other commercial ships during tensions with the US in May and June 2019, now it is going further. This involves deadly strikes by drones. Will Iran risk this potential growth in tensions in the region? It appears to calculate that this is a way to send a message about tensions in Syria and elsewhere. Iran has vowed to confront Israel for years. It has usually relied instead on proxies or plausible deniability in threats. For instance in the fall of 2018 Hezbollah set up a cell near the Golan to launch drones at Israel. In addition Iran used a drone in Syria to fly into Israeli airspace in February 2018 and May 2021. But in each case Iran’s acts didn’t harm anyone. Its proxies appear reticent in this regard. Hamas was mobilized to push tensions with Israel in May which resulted in a ten day war. This war benefited Hamas and also was likely used by Iran to test Israel’s responses. Rocket fire from Syria and Lebanon during that conflict, and also claims that the Iranian-backed Houthis might join such a conflict in the future, point to Iran’s larger regional goal.
However, on the other side of the coin, Iran has been careful about other responses. In January 2019 when Israel’s former Chief of Staff told the New York Times that Israel had carried out thousands of airstrikes in Syria, Iran did not respond. Iran also appeared reticent to do much about what it claimed were sabotage attacks on nuclear facilities such as Natanz and the killing of a nuclear official. In June 2021 The Jerusalem Post reported that former Mossad head Yossi Cohen had discussed operations against Iran. The rhetoric from analysts is that Iran is retaliating specifically for deaths of “resistance” members in Syria, either from the July 22 or April attack. Iran is saying that it will make the Gulf of Oman Israel’s “Syria,” in a sense turning it into a free-for-all of retaliation and its own “campaign between the wars” where it has freedom of action to strike. It could wage a war of attrition there, according to this logic. It may strike at the soft underbelly of commerce and target innocent people. The Iranian message is that sailors and crew should be careful to sign on with ships that are in any way linked to Israel. Commerce off the Gulf of Oman relies on maritime security from the US 5th Fleet and UK and other regional powers.
Did Iran wait until the UK’s Queen Elizabeth was in the South China Sea to conduct this incident? That answer is not known. But Iran does appear to be signaling that its drones have a new capability or at least will be put into play in this area. This could of course just be messaging about Iran’s next move. Iran has been harassing US military facilities in Iraq as well but has so far not killed anyone since the spring of 2020. That is because Iran is careful about using drones and asymmetric attacks and knows casualties increase the chance of retaliation.
2021 年 7 月 31 日 18:39
2021 年 1 月 4 日在伊朗塞姆南舉行的伊朗伊斯蘭共和國陸軍大規模無人機作戰演習期間拍攝了一架無人機。照片拍攝於 2021 年 1 月 4 日
近年來，伊朗一直在提高其無人機能力；它擁有大量軍用無人機，如Shahed、Mohajer和Ababil線。德黑蘭最近還展示了一種以加沙命名的新型無人機 。它聲稱它的無人機航程很遠，延伸超過 1,600 公里，其中一些可以攜帶導彈，而另一些可以預先編程以通過撞擊目標來進行精確攻擊。
例如，伊朗式神風無人機由加沙的哈馬斯開發，在那裡它們被稱為 Shehab，由伊朗支持的也門胡塞武裝開發，他們使用 Qasef 無人機。
伊朗擁有大量無人機，從看起來像美國捕食者的 Shahed-129，到其新的“加沙”無人機，也類似於捕食者的 Shahed-149，以及更小的偵察無人機 Shahed 121 . 還有一個 Shahed 123，它是同一無人機系列的一部分。伊朗還生產無人機，其名稱包括 Raad、Saegeh、Sarir、Fotros、Karrar 和 Kian。消息來源中提到的一些伊朗無人機可能不存在，例如 Shahed-136，據稱它於 1 月被派往也門以瞄準以色列。
重要的是，伊朗依靠無人機來威脅該地區周圍的敵人，通常是將無人機轉移給其代理人和盟友，如伊拉克的哈馬斯、胡塞武裝、真主黨和什葉派民兵。伊朗運營商可能會從敘利亞的 T-4 空軍基地等地駕駛無人機，但總體目標是，當它們被用於對付以色列、美國在伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、庫爾德軍隊等時，沒有人可以輕易將伊朗與其他國家聯繫起來。攻擊。
據報導，對阿曼海岸附近的 Mercer Street 船隻使用了大量無人機，這可能標誌著中東進入一個新時代，也是使用無人機打擊船隻的主要紅線。使用多架無人機精確瞄準艦船的各個部分，例如艦橋或生活區，可能表明具有先進的監視和情報。
來自敘利亞無人機或伊拉克真主黨、哈馬斯和親伊朗民兵對伊朗的威脅是眾所周知的。胡塞無人機威脅也是眾所周知的，此外，伊朗在 2019 年 9 月使用無人機襲擊沙特阿拉伯阿美石油加工設施在 Abqaiq 是一起重大事件，一些專家將其描述為使用該技術的珍珠港事件。
針對無人機的防空系統一直在改進，但胡塞武裝繼續使用它們來對抗利雅得，伊拉克的親伊朗民兵展示了數十架伊朗無人機，這些無人機現在都在他們的武器庫中。據信，他們於今年 4 月使用無人機襲擊了伊拉克庫爾德斯坦自治區埃爾比勒的中央情報局秘密機庫。2019 年，據信活躍在伊拉克的 Kataib 真主黨代理人使用伊朗提供的無人機襲擊沙特阿拉伯。
伊朗還使用無人機監視 2017 年對 ISIS 和敘利亞的襲擊，以幫助打擊 ISIS。它還使用 2018 年從基爾庫克起飛的無人機來瞄準庫爾德異議人士；2019 年 7 月，它再次使用新的無人機部隊瞄準庫爾德人。
What does Iran's use of drones against ships mean for the future?
If Iran has reached a new level of precision drone strikes and is using them against shipping in deadly attacks, this is a major milestone.
JULY 31, 2021 18:39
A drone is pictured during a large-scale drone combat exercise of Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Semnan, Iran January 4, 2021. Picture taken January 4, 2021
(photo credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA/REUTERS)
Tensions are mounting between Israel and Iran after a ship was attacked off the coast of Oman on Friday, with details revealing that drones were used to spread death and destruction as two were killed in the attack.
The New York Times quoted two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, saying: “The attack appeared to have been carried out by several unmanned Iranian drones that crashed into living quarters underneath the ship’s command center, or bridge.”
This appears to be a serious and complex attack that is not only a major escalation, but a new use of Iran drone technology.
Iran has been increasing its drone capabilities in recent years; it has a large number of militarized drones such as the Shahed, Mohajer and Ababil lines. Tehran also recently showcased a new drone named after Gaza. It claims that its drones have long ranges, stretching over 1,600 km., and that some can carry missiles while others can be preprogrammed to carry out precision attacks by slamming into targets.
For instance, Iranian-style kamikaze drones have been developed by Hamas in Gaza, where they are called Shehab and by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, who use the Qasef drone.
The Houthis have terrorized Saudi Arabia with these UAVs. These drones carry a warhead in their body and are programmed to strike a target using a kind of gyroscope and guidance system. US and regional Gulf reports have linked drones across the region to Iranian construction and blueprints via details such as the gyroscopes.
IRAN HAS a plethora of drones, from its Shahed-129 that looks like an American Predator, to its new “Gaza” drone, a Shahed-149 that is also similar to a Predator, as well as the Shahed 121, a smaller reconnaissance drone. There is also a Shahed 123 that is part of the same line of drones. Iran also makes UAVs with names such as Raad, Saegeh, Sarir, Fotros, Karrar and Kian. Some of the Iranian drones mentioned in sources may not exist, such as the Shahed-136, which was allegedly sent to Yemen to target Israel in January.
What matters is that Iran relies on drones to threaten enemies around the region, usually by transferring them to its proxies and allies such as Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Iranian operators may fly the drones from places like the T-4 Airbase in Syria, but the overall goal is that when they are used against Israel, the US in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kurdish forces and others, no one can easily link Iran to the attacks.
In some cases, parts and munitions that may be used in drones have been intercepted at sea by the US Navy as Iran has sought to move weapons to the Houthis.
The reported use of numerous drones against the Mercer Street ship off Oman’s coast could mark a new era in the Middle East, and a major redline in the use of drones against ships. Using several drones to precisely target parts of the ship, such as the bridge or living quarters, may indicate advanced surveillance and intelligence.
It is not clear if Iran’s drones can be piloted once they are launched by a ground control station. That means that an attack on a ship is complex because ships move so it’s unclear how Iran might program the drones to strike the ship precisely. Even at anchor a ship will shift around with the tide or wind. So how could the drone target specific areas, unless it was controlled up until the impact? These are key questions.
IF IRAN has reached a new level of precision drone strikes and is using them against shipping in deadly attacks, this is a major milestone. Iran may also be moving these drones to the Houthis or others, or basing them on ships. Iranian ships have recently sailed all the way to Russia, around Africa, and brought drones with them. It has also placed drones on its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fast boats. Additionally, Iran has tested drones in recent naval exercises.
The Iran threat from drones based in Syria, or with Hezbollah, Hamas and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, was known. The Houthi drone threat was also well known, and in addition, Iran’s use of drones to attack Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil-processing facilities in Abqaiq in September 2019 was a major incident that some experts described as a sort of Pearl Harbor in using this technology.
Air defenses have been improving against drones, but the Houthis continue to use them against Riyadh, and pro-Iran militias in Iraq have showcased dozens of Iranian drones that are now in their arsenal. It is believed they used a drone to strike a secret CIA hangar in Erbil in the Iraqi Kurdistan Autonomous Region in April of this year. In 2019 it is also believed that the Kataib Hezbollah proxy, active in Iraq, used an Iranian-supplied drone to strike at Saudi Arabia.
Iran also used drones to monitor attacks on ISIS and in Syria in 2017 to help fight ISIS. It also used drones flown from Kirkuk in 2018 to target Kurdish dissidents; in July 2019 it again used a new drone unit to target Kurds.
All of this shows how Iranian drones and drone technology are now a major emerging threat: from Lebanon all the way through Syria and Iraq to the Persian Gulf and then to the Gulf of Oman and Yemen, stretching thousands of miles and potentially putting ships and forces from the US and many allies and partners in danger.
Iran may be signaling that it will strike using drones at sea in deadly attacks in what it claims are responses to Israeli strikes in Syria or elsewhere. A pro-Iran social media account says that Tehran’s armed drone ability is increasing and that this incident showcases the new Iran policy of retaliation.
瑞典針對被控伊朗戰犯的案件可能會給 Raisi 帶來麻煩
但是，據稱在 1988 年大屠殺中發揮作用的即將上任的總統，如果他旅行，仍然可能享有外交豁免權。
2021 年 6 月 18 日，在伊朗德黑蘭的一個投票站投票後，繼續贏得伊朗總統選舉的 Ebrahim Raisi 揮手致意。 (Ebrahim Noroozi/AP)
1988 年，一名伊朗男子因“戰爭罪和謀殺罪”被處決 100 多名政治犯，瑞典提起的訴訟可能會給伊朗即將上任的總統易卜拉欣·賴西帶來麻煩。
然而，如果雷西作為總統出國旅行，他可能會受益於外交豁免權，儘管受到製裁，但如果他要參加 9 月在紐約舉行的聯合國大會，美國將不得不向他發放簽證。時報報導。
報告稱，伊朗駐聯合國代表團表示，在 COVID-19 大流行期間，Raisi 的大會旅行計劃仍不清楚。Raisi 計劃親自或以虛擬方式在活動中發言。
針對 2019 年在瑞典被捕的 60 歲的哈米德·努里 (Hamid Noury) 的案件涉及他涉嫌參與 1980 年至 1988 年伊朗和伊拉克之間的戰爭結束時對囚犯的大規模屠殺。
多年來，人權組織一直在爭取正義，他們認為這是 1980 年代後期在全國范圍內對數千名伊朗人（主要是年輕人）進行法外處決的行為。
5 月，包括諾貝爾獎獲得者、前國家元首或政府首腦以及前聯合國官員在內的 150 多名維權人士呼籲對 1988 年的殺戮事件進行國際調查。
國際特赦組織指責當選總統賴西在“死亡委員會”中擔任檢察官的關鍵角色，該委員會於 1988 年將數千名囚犯送去死亡，人權組織將其描述為危害人類罪。
“我認為現在是時候了，現在 Raisi 先生是[當選] 總統，我們開始調查 1988 年發生的事情以及個人的作用是非常重要的，”第三位人權狀況特別報告員 Javaid Rehman在伊朗，告訴路透社。“否則，我們將對這位總統以及他在這些處決中扮演的歷史角色和所報導的角色產生非常嚴重的擔憂。”
2019 年 10 月 30 日，大約 800 名伊朗人民聖戰組織受害者的肖像在巴黎榮軍院廣場展出，以紀念 1988 年數千名伊朗政治犯被處決。 (Eric Feferberg/法新社)
瑞典檢察機關在一份聲明中表示，這些囚犯與“伊朗人民聖戰者組織”或 MEK 有關聯，該組織是一個尋求推翻其武裝部門多次襲擊伊朗的教職人員領導層的政治組織。
他的審判定於 8 月 10 日開始，定於 2022 年 4 月中旬結束。國際特赦組織此前曾指出，沒有伊朗官員因 1988 年的大規模處決而面臨指控。
伊朗新當選總統易卜拉欣·賴西於 2021 年 6 月 21 日在伊朗德黑蘭舉行的新聞發布會上發表講話。（美聯社照片/Vahid Salemi）
Raisi 上個月以近 62% 的選票當選，在他的主要對手被取消資格後，投票率創下歷史新低。2019 年被哈梅內伊任命為司法部長的賴西將於 8 月 3 日接替相對溫和的總統哈桑·魯哈尼（Hassan Rouhani）——其具有里程碑意義的成就是 2015 年伊朗與世界大國之間的核協議。
Sweden case against accused Iranian war criminal may spell trouble for Raisi
But incoming president, who allegedly had role in 1988 mass killings, is still likely to enjoy diplomatic immunity if he travels
Ebrahim Raisi, who went on to win Iran's presidential election, waves after casting his vote at a polling station in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2021. (Ebrahim Noroozi/AP)
A Swedish legal case against an Iranian man for “war crimes and murder” over the execution of more than 100 political prisoners in 1988 could cause problems for Iran’s incoming president Ebrahim Raisi.
However, Raisi will likely benefit from diplomatic immunity if he travels abroad as president, and despite sanctions, the United States would be obliged to grant him a visa if he were to attend September’s General Assembly at the United Nations in New York, the New York Times reported.
Iran’s Mission to the UN said Raisi’s travel plans for the General Assembly remain unclear amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the report. Raisi is scheduled to speak at the event either in person or virtually.
The diplomatic mission added that it had no comment about the trial in Sweden.
The case against 60-year-old Hamid Noury, who was arrested in Sweden in 2019, concerns his alleged part in the mass killings of prisoners towards the end of the 1980-1988 war between Iran and Iraq.
Human rights groups have been campaigning for years for justice for what they consider to be the extrajudicial execution of thousands of Iranians, mostly young people, across the country in the late 1980s.
In May, a group of more than 150 rights campaigners, including Nobel laureates, former heads of state or government, and former UN officials, called for an international investigation into the 1988 killings.
Amnesty International has accused president-elect Raisi of having played a key role as a prosecutor on the “death commission” that sent thousands of prisoners to their deaths in 1988, described as a crime against humanity by the rights group.
A UN official tasked with investigating human rights in Iran backed last month an independent probe into the role of Raisi, in the mass state-ordered executions.
“I think it is time and it’s very important now that Mr. Raisi is the president[-elect] that we start investigating what happened in 1988 and the role of individuals,” Javaid Rehman, the third special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, told Reuters. “Otherwise we will have very serious concerns about this president and the role, the reported role, he has played historically in those executions.”
Portraits of some 800 victims of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran are put on display along the Esplanade des Invalides in Paris to commemorate the executions of thousands of Iranian political prisoners in 1988, on October 30, 2019. (Eric Feferberg/AFP)
Noury was arrested upon his arrival at the airport in Stockholm, with Swedish media reporting at the time that he was visiting relatives.
Sweden’s Prosecution Authority said in a statement that the prisoners had been linked to the “People’s Mujahedin of Iran,” or MEK, a political organization seeking to overthrow the clerical leadership whose armed branch had launched several attacks against Iran.
In the summer of 1988, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini “issued an order to execute all prisoners held in Iranian prisons who sympathized with and were loyal in their convictions to the Mujahedin,” according to Swedish prosecutors.
Noury held the position of “assistant to the deputy prosecutor at the Gohardasht prison,” on the outskirts of Karaj, west of Tehran, the statement said.
“The accused is suspected of participating, together with other perpetrators, in these mass executions and, as such, intentionally taking the lives of a large number of prisoners, who sympathized with the Mujahedin and, additionally, of subjecting prisoners to severe suffering which is deemed torture and inhuman treatment,” it said.
His trial is set to start on August 10 and is scheduled to end in mid-April 2022. Amnesty International has noted previously that no Iranian official has faced charges over the mass 1988 executions.
Iran’s new President-elect Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, on June 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Meanwhile, the incoming president Raisi, tied to the mass killings, is on a blacklist of Iranian officials sanctioned by Washington, due to his complicity in the “brutal crackdown” on protests and “extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988,” accusations Raisi rejected.
Raisi was elected last month with nearly 62% of a vote that saw record-low turnout after his main opponents were disqualified. Raisi, appointed by Khamenei as judiciary chief in 2019, is to replace relative moderate President Hassan Rouhani — whose landmark achievement was a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers — on August 3.
美國國務院批准向以色列出售 18 架重型直升機
更換西科斯基 CH-53K King Stallions 以取代 IDF 老化機隊的交易獲得批准；美國稱以色列擁有強大的自衛能力符合美國國家利益
說明：西科斯基 CH-53K King Stallion 於 2018 年 4 月 25 日在德國柏林舉行的 ILA 柏林航展期間飛行。 (Michael Sohn/AP)
美國國務院週五表示，它批准向以色列國防軍出售 18 架西科斯基 CH-53K King Stallion 重型直升機，作為價值高達 34 億美元的交易的一部分。
今年早些時候，國防部選擇了美國製造的直升機來取代以色列國防軍自 1960 年代以來一直服役的 CH-53 海馬機隊。
國防部一直在波音 CH-47 Chinook 和西科斯基 CH-53K King Stallion 重型運輸直升機之間搖擺不定，以取代其擁有 50 年曆史的 CH-53 直升機，其以色列版本名為 Yassur。
一架以色列空軍西科斯基 CH-53，2015 年 6 月 25 日
國防部長本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）上任後，他命令軍方重新考慮購買 V-22 傾轉旋翼飛機的計劃，這種飛機既可以用作飛機，也可以用作直升機，從而賦予軍隊——尤其是特種部隊——更大的靈活性。
甘茨在 2 月份表示，購買新直升機的決定是“建立以色列國防軍力量的重要一步，對於執行廣泛的日常和戰鬥行動任務至關重要。”
該交易是一項總體協議的一部分，該協議還將允許軍方購買 F-35 和 F-15 戰鬥機、加油機和其他軍方認為至關重要的設備，如攔截導彈和先進的飛機炸彈。
2 月，在政府批准一項有爭議的資助計劃後，軍事採購部級委員會簽署了購買另一個中隊價值的 F-35 戰鬥機，以及四架波音 KC-46 加油機和先進導彈和炸彈的協議。支付涉及美國巨額貸款的設備。
Judah Ari Gross 為本報告做出了貢獻。
US State Department okays potential sale of 18 heavy lift helicopters to Israel
Deal for Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallions to replace IDF’s aging fleet gets greenlight; US says it’s in its own national interests for Israel to have strong self-defense capability
By TOI STAFFToday, 10:42 am
Illustrative: A Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion flies during the ILA Berlin Air Show in Berlin, Germany, April 25, 2018. (Michael Sohn/AP)
The US State Department said Friday it approved the potential sale of 18 Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion heavy lift helicopters to the Israel Defense Forces as part of a deal worth up to $3.4 billion.
The Defense Ministry chose the US-made helicopter earlier this year to replace the IDF’s fleet of CH-53 Sea Stallions which have been in service since the 1960s.
The deal includes engines, navigation systems, weaponry, support equipment, spares and technical support, the Reuters news agency reported.
Although a contract has not necessarily been signed, the State Department said in a statement that “the United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability.”
The prime contractors on the deal are the Lockheed Martin Corp and General Electric Co.
The Defense Ministry had been wavering between the Boeing CH-47 Chinook and Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion heavy transport helicopters to replace its 50-year-old CH-53 helicopters, whose Israeli version is named Yassur.
When Defense Minister Benny Gantz came into his post he ordered the military to reconsider its plan to purchase the V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft, which can function as both an airplane and a helicopter, giving the military — particularly special forces — greater flexibility.
That sent the ministry back to the drawing board and significantly extended the selection process.
Gantz said in February that the decision to purchase the new helicopters was a “significant step in building the IDF’s power, and essential for performing a wide range of operational tasks as routine and in combat.”
The deal is part of an overall agreement that will also allow the military to purchase F-35 and F-15 fighter jets, refueling planes and other equipment deemed critical by the military, like interceptor missiles and advanced bombs for aircraft.
In February, the ministerial committee for military acquisitions signed off on the purchase of another squadron’s worth of F-35 fighter jets, as well as four Boeing KC-46 refueling planes and advanced missiles and bombs, following government approval for a contentious funding scheme to pay for the equipment involving massive loans from the United States.
The approval for the purchases came after some three years of requests from the military for the equipment, which was held up due to political squabbles and fights over the budget.
Judah Ari Gross contributed to this report.
梅雷茨議員亞伊爾·戈蘭 (Yair Golan) 面臨左翼政黨一名高級官員的內部反對，因為他拒絕使用“佔領”一詞來描述以色列對約旦河西岸的軍事控制。
“戈蘭不明白的是，‘佔領’不是指佔領土地，而是指 350 萬巴勒斯坦人 54 年來所處的境地，”梅雷茨領導層成員烏里·扎基 (Uri Zaki) 週六寫道。推特。
扎基是梅雷茨部長塔馬爾·贊德伯格的合夥人，他表示，“像這樣的評論來自梅雷茨 [選舉] 名單上的一位 MK，這令人非常難過。”
對戈蘭的批評是在他接受第 12 頻道新聞採訪時發表上述言論後的第二天，該頻道指出“佔領”一詞在該黨的平台上多次出現。
一天前，戈蘭是幾位溫和的立法者之一，他們支持一封由 90 名議會成員簽署給聯合利華的信，該信批評 Ben & Jerry 決定停止“在被佔領的巴勒斯坦領土”銷售冰淇淋。
Golan 是唯一一個在這封信上簽名的 Meretz MK，這是由 Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari 帶頭響應 Ben & Jerry's 上周宣布的消息。
Meretz lawmaker faces internal pushback for rejecting use of term ‘occupation’
Senior official says it’s ‘very sad that comments like these came from’ an elected representative in the left-wing party
By TOI STAFFToday, 5:46 pm
Meretz lawmaker Yair Golan faced internal pushback from a senior official in the left-wing party, after saying he refuses to use the word “occupation” to describe Israel’s military control over the West Bank.
“What Golan does not understand is that the ‘occupation’ doesn’t refer to the capture of the land but the situation in which 3.5 million Palestinians have been in for 54 years,” Uri Zaki, a member of Meretz’s leadership, wrote Saturday on Twitter.
He added: “Living under a military occupation, without basic rights or citizenship, while alongside them more and more Israeli citizens in the same territory have full democratic rights.”
Zaki, who is the partner of Meretz Minister Tamar Zandberg, said it was “very sad that comments like these came from a MK included on the Meretz [electoral] list.”
The criticism of Golan came a day after he made the remark in an interview with Channel 12 news, which noted that the term “occupation” appears numerous times in the party’s platform.
“This word has a connotation of a callous act, as if we took a piece of land that we have nothing to do with. Ultimately our roots are in the territory of Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem,” Golan said, using the biblical names for the West Bank.
“I dream of the land of the bible,” he added. “I tell my friends on the right, my connection to every clump of the Land of Israel is no less than yours.”
Golan, a former IDF deputy chief of staff, now serving as deputy public security minister, also said it would be a “terrible decree” to evacuate many settlers from their homes.
The comments came a day after Golan was one of several dovish lawmakers to walk back their support for a letter signed 90 Knesset members to Unilever criticizing Ben & Jerry’s for the decision to stop selling ice cream “in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”
“I understood that the letter does not represent my position,” Golan tweeted only after he signed the letter. He said he objected to the description of West Bank settlements as “towns and cities in Israel,” and asked to have his signature removed.
Golan was the only Meretz MK whose signature was on the letter, which was spearheaded by Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari in response to the announcement last week by Ben & Jerry’s.
通過伊薩姆·艾哈邁德2021 年 7 月 30 日，晚上 11:03
2021 年 7 月 30 日，一家城市運營的移動藥房在紐約市布魯克林社區為 COVID-19 疫苗做廣告（SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP）
華盛頓（法新社）——根據一份洩露的美國政府文件，冠狀病毒的 Delta 變體與水痘一樣具有傳染性，可能比過去的毒株引起更嚴重的疾病，並且接種疫苗的個體中的突破性病例可能與未接種疫苗的病例一樣具有傳染性。
疾病控制與預防中心 (CDC) 製作的內部幻燈片演示強調，由於達美航空，“戰爭已經改變”。
疾病預防控制中心主任羅謝爾·瓦倫克斯 (Rochelle Walenksy) 引用了本週演講中的數據，證明在高風險地區為接種疫苗的人重新戴上口罩是合理的。
專家依靠稱為循環閾值 (Ct) 值的數字來表示感染者攜帶的病毒數量，數字越低表示病毒載量越高。
幻燈片說，在普羅溫斯敦，“接種疫苗和未接種疫苗的病例的平均 Ct 值沒有差異”。
2021 年 7 月 30 日，一家城市運營的移動藥房在紐約市布魯克林社區為 COVID-19 疫苗做廣告（SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP）
據當地報導，此次疫情與 7 月 4 日的慶祝活動有關，最新感染人數增至 900 人。
但與之前的大規模爆發不同，住院人數很少——據新聞網站 MassLive 稱，到目前為止只有 7 人，而且迄今為止沒有死亡病例。
“這是一個關鍵點，也是 CDC 改變其指導方針的部分原因，”紐約大學傳染病醫生兼教授席琳·岡德 (Celine Gounder) 告訴法新社。
2021 年 7 月 29 日，加利福尼亞州舊金山，綠洲的一名門衛在允許他進入之前檢查客戶的疫苗接種卡（JUSTIN SULLIVAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP）
CDC 幻燈片還表明，突破性感染並不像以前想像的那麼罕見——目前“在 1.62 億接種疫苗的美國人中，每周有 35,000 例有症狀感染”。
對其他國家的調查結果的回顧表明，雖然最初的 SARS-CoV-2 與普通感冒一樣具有傳染性，但每個患有 Delta 的人平均會感染 8 人，使其與水痘一樣具有傳染性，但仍低於麻疹。
來自加拿大和蘇格蘭的報告還表明，情況可能更嚴重，住院的機率更高。在新加坡，它也增加了入住 ICU 和死亡的機率。
各國對疫苗效力的估計各不相同，但在其總結幻燈片中，CDC 估計接種疫苗的人患嚴重疾病或死亡的風險降低了 10 倍或更多，而感染的風險降低了 3 倍或更多。
這相當於對嚴重疾病和死亡的有效性至少為 90%，對感染的有效性至少為 67%。
人們於 2021 年 7 月 30 日在紐約市布魯克林社區的一家城市運營的移動藥房註冊注射 COVID-19 疫苗（SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP）
As transmissible as chickenpox: US documents sound alarm on Delta variant
CDC presentation declares ‘The war has changed’ as a result of new strain, warns infections in vaccinated individuals may be as transmissible as in the unvaccinated
By ISSAM AHMED30 July 2021, 11:03 pm
A city-operated mobile pharmacy advertises the COVID-19 vaccine in a Brooklyn neighborhood on July 30, 2021 in New York City (SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
WASHINGTON (AFP) — The Delta variant of the coronavirus is as contagious as chickenpox, probably causes more severe disease than past strains, and breakthrough cases in vaccinated individuals may be as transmissible as unvaccinated cases, according to a leaked US government document.
The internal slide presentation produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stresses that “the war has changed” as a result of Delta.
It was first reported by The Washington Post and has been verified by AFP.
CDC director Rochelle Walenksy cited data from the presentation this week to justify a return to masks for vaccinated people in high-risk areas.
One of the biggest takeaways is the finding that breakthrough infections in vaccinated people are highly contagious, with the data coming from previous studies and a new analysis of an outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts.
Experts rely on a number called the cycle threshold (Ct) value to indicate how much virus an infected person harbors, with lower numbers indicating higher viral load.
In Provincetown, there was “no difference in mean Ct values in vaccinated and unvaccinated cases,” the slides said.
On Friday, the CDC published a preliminary report about the superspreading event, in which roughly three-quarters of people were vaccinated.
A city-operated mobile pharmacy advertises the COVID-19 vaccine in a Brooklyn neighborhood on July 30, 2021 in New York City (SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
The outbreak related to July 4 festivities, with the latest number of people infected swelling to 900, according to local reports.
But unlike previous mass outbreaks, hospitalizations are low — only seven so far, according to news website MassLive, and so far no deaths.
“This is a key point which is part of the reason the CDC changed its guidance,” Celine Gounder, an infectious diseases physician and professor at New York University, told AFP.
“It’s not really so much for your own protection: as a vaccinated person if you have one of these breakthrough infections, you may have mild symptoms, you may have no symptoms, but based on what we’re seeing here you could be contagious to other people.”
Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, added that a point to note about the Provincetown outbreak is that it occurred in a setting where community transmission was low — and as such, the CDC’s new masking recommendation wouldn’t have applied there.
“Moreover, public reporting around that outbreak investigation suggest(s) that exposures were likely at places like bars and house parties, where mask-wearing would be unlikely,” she told AFP.
A doorman at Oasis checks a customer’s vaccination card before allowing him to enter on July 29, 2021 in San Francisco, California (JUSTIN SULLIVAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
Breakthroughs not as rare
The CDC slide set also indicates breakthrough infections are not as rare as previously thought — and at present account for “35,000 symptomatic infections per week among 162 million vaccinated Americans.”
A review of findings from other countries shows that while the original SARS-CoV-2 was as contagious as the common cold, each person with Delta infects on average eight others, making it as transmissible as chickenpox but still less than measles.
Reports from Canada and Scotland also suggest it might be more severe, with higher odds of hospitalization. In Singapore, too, it raised the odds of ICU admission and death.
Vaccine efficacy estimates vary across countries, but in its concluding slide, the CDC estimates the risk of severe disease or death is reduced 10-fold or greater in the vaccinated, while risk of infection is reduced three-fold or greater.
That is equivalent to at least 90 percent effectiveness against severe disease and death, and at least 67 percent effectiveness against infection.
People sign-up for a shot at a city-operated mobile pharmacy for the COVID-19 vaccine in a Brooklyn neighborhood on July 30, 2021 in New York City (SPENCER PLATT / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
Gounder said she expected the findings would spur more private sector vaccine mandates, though these were less likely to occur in politically conservative regions where uptake has been slower.
“I think we’re looking at a very long tail of people who are just going to be very difficult to get vaccinated,” she said.
“What’s so tragic is we had all of the resources at our disposal to really squash this thing in this country, and we are squandering that.”