外交官的國際新聞導覽及中東中亞的歷史故事 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia
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2021 年 9 月 2 日 20:01
8 月 28 日星期六舉行的巴格達會議在地點和參與者方面都不同尋常。會場在巴格達，東道主為伊拉克總理穆斯塔法·卡迪米，參加者包括法國、埃及、約旦和卡塔爾的領導人，以及沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、科威特和土耳其的外交部長。
會議的召開表明了中東的幾個重要事態發展。第一個與東道國伊拉克有關，該國將自己定位為區域調解人。我們應該記住，自 1990 年代初伊拉克因薩達姆侯賽因入侵科威特而遭到抵制以來，伊拉克並沒有在該地區發揮重要作用。更重要的是，2003 年美國接管伊拉克、什葉派佔多數的“加冕”以及內戰的爆發使伊拉克成為遜尼派阿拉伯世界的賤民。
儘管伊拉克主辦了 2012 年阿拉伯聯盟峰會，但它主要忙於國內問題和擊敗伊斯蘭國的努力。然而，作為一個由什葉派多數控制的阿拉伯國家，伊拉克現在可以方便地在遜尼派阿拉伯沙特阿拉伯和非阿拉伯什葉派國家伊朗之間進行調解。因此，雖然伊拉克以前在阿拉伯世界尋求霸權，但它現在正在尋求通過在該地區的競爭對手之間進行調解來鞏固其地位和影響力。
2019 年以來，這三個國家的領導人和外長至少會晤了 5 次，會談的重點是加強經濟和安全合作，包括共享能源和電力項目（例如，將伊拉克與約旦電網連接起來以減少其依賴伊朗，通過亞喀巴出口伊拉克石油，並建立自由貿易區）。
雖然伊拉克和埃及之前曾爭奪阿拉伯世界的領導權，但它們也經歷了合作時期，例如兩伊戰爭（1980-1988），以及成立了包括也門在內的阿拉伯合作委員會，並與也門解散。伊拉克 1990 年代入侵科威特。目前的情況使這一歷史性聯盟得以延續。
在巴格達會議上，阿聯酋和科威特外長會見了伊朗外長，但尚不清楚伊朗-沙特會議是否也在場邊舉行。儘管如此，巴格達自 4 月以來一直主持伊朗和沙特代表之間的會談，旨在緩和他們之間的緊張局勢。
在沒有西方超級大國贊助人的情況下，許多國家認為以色列是一個地區大國，在對伊朗的製衡體系中可以發揮重要作用，如果需要，伊朗可能會襲擊其核設施，因為它1981 年在伊拉克，2007 年在敘利亞。然而，這次會議表明，儘管以色列、阿聯酋和巴林之間建立了公共聯盟，以及以色列與沙特阿拉伯的秘密關係，但這些國家正試圖根據最壞情況下的假設與伊朗達成諒解——核伊朗——以色列的選擇仍將擺在桌面上。
作者在希伯來大學中東和伊斯蘭研究系任教，並且是以色列區域外交政策研究所 Mitvim 的董事會成員。
Why were Israel and the US not invited to the Baghdad conference?
Many countries perceive Israel as a regional power with an important role to play in the system of checks and balances vis-à-vis Iran, which could strike its nuclear facilities
By ELIE PODEH
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 20:01
IRAQ’S PRESIDENT Barham Salih and France’s President Emmanuel Macron attend a news conference ahead of the Baghdad summit, last week.
(photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)
The Baghdad conference held on Saturday, August 28, was unusual in terms of both venue and participants. The venue was Baghdad, the host was Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, and participants included the leaders of France, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar, and foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and Turkey.
The event sought to accomplish two goals: one, more limited, was to bolster Iraq’s stability; the other, broader, to strengthen regional stability. Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, which have become battlefields for some of these actors, were not invited to the event. Its timing, at the height of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, was surely no coincidence. It reflected the growing understanding by the states of the region that they can no longer rely on US involvement and must now fend for themselves.
The convening of the conference points to several important developments in the Middle East. The first relates to the host, Iraq, which is positioning itself as a regional mediator. Iraq, we should remember, has not played a significant role in the region since the early 1990s, when it was boycotted over Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. What is more, the 2003 US takeover of Iraq, the “crowning” of the Shi’ites majority, and the outbreak of civil war turned Iraq into a pariah in the largely Sunni Arab world.
Although Iraq hosted the 2012 Arab League Summit, it was mostly busy with domestic problems and efforts to defeat the Islamic State. However, as an Arab state controlled by a Shi’ite majority, Iraq is now conveniently placed to mediate between Sunni Arab Saudi Arabia and Iran, a non-Arab Shi’ite state. Thus, whereas Iraq previously sought hegemony in the Arab world, it is now seeking to bolster its position and influence by mediating among rivals in the region.
The second development relates to the formation and strengthening of a trilateral alliance among Iraq, Jordan and Egypt.
Since 2019, the leaders and foreign ministers of these three states have met at least five times, with their talks focusing on stronger economic and security cooperation, including shared energy and power projects (for example, hooking up Iraq to the Jordanian grid to reduce its reliance on Iran, exporting Iraqi oil through Aqaba, and establishing a free trade zone).
Although Iraq and Egypt previously competed for leadership of the Arab world, they also experienced periods of cooperation, such as during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), and the establishment of the Arab Cooperation Council that included also Yemen and was dissolved with Iraq’s 1990s invasion of Kuwait. Current circumstances enable the renewal of this historic alliance.
The third development is that Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite their deep enmity, have managed to pave the way for discussions and dialogue, illustrating that the binary division made by the media between “moderate” Arab states and the radical axis of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas is an oversimplification. In fact, we see Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar and Turkey conducting sophisticated realpolitik that leaves the door open to talks with those defined as enemies.
At the Baghdad conference, the foreign ministers of the UAE and Kuwait met with Iran’s foreign minister, but it is unclear whether an Iranian-Saudi meeting was also held on the sidelines. Nonetheless, Baghdad has hosted talks since April between Iranian and Saudi representatives aimed at easing tensions between them.
French President Macron is trying to advance his country’s economic interests in Iraq’s rehabilitation, and by-the-by to find ways to rebuild Lebanon, too. On the other hand, the US was not a formal participant at the conference, although one should remember that 2,500 American soldiers are still deployed in Iraq, and a large US diplomatic mission operates in Baghdad’s protected “green zone” near the conference site.
The final conference communique expressed support for the strengthening of Iraq’s institutions and its stability, but stopped short of proposing concrete measures for the implementation of these goals. In the regional context, too, the communique noted that participants recognized the shared challenges they face, which require cooperation on the basis of good neighborly relations that avoid intervention in each other’s domestic matters and respect each country’s national sovereignty. Time will tell whether these general platitudes are translated into actions or remain on paper. Time will also tell whether significant meetings were held on the sidelines of the conference.
And what about Israel? The US pullout from Afghanistan ostensibly heralded a strengthening of its regional position and importance.
In the absence of a Western superpower patron, many countries perceive Israel as a regional power with an important role to play in the system of checks and balances vis-à-vis Iran, which could strike its nuclear facilities, if need be, as it did in 1981 in Iraq and in 2007 in Syria. However, this conference illustrates that despite the public alliance forged among Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, and Israel’s clandestine ties with Saudi Arabia, these countries are trying to reach understandings with Iran based on the assumption that in a worst-case scenario – a nuclear Iran – the Israeli option will still be on the table.
The writer teaches in the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Hebrew University and is a board member of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
2021 年 9 月 2 日 20:08
8 月 30 日，阿富汗喀布爾，一名 TALIBAN 成員站崗，阿富汗男子為一輛發射火箭的車輛拍照。
在發生了有史以來最嚴重的恐怖襲擊事件後，美國及其盟國在阿富汗開展了軍事行動。現代史上第一次非國家行為體大規模實施恐怖襲擊，造成2977人死亡、6000多人受傷。美國的中心地帶成為襲擊目標，紐約雙子塔被毀，華盛頓五角大樓受到重創。如果不是美聯航 93 號航班上的乘客試圖控制這架在賓夕法尼亞墜毀的飛機，那麼另一個目標就會被擊中，造成更多人員傷亡。
現在人們知道，在 9/11 事件中有四次企圖進行恐怖襲擊。然而，隨著襲擊的發生，沒有人知道還有多少人未決。那天美國政府普遍存在的不確定感，實際上在接下來的幾天裡，都令人震驚。
自 1941 年 12 月珍珠港事件以來，美國從未以這種方式對敵人感到驚訝。然而，與珍珠港相反，華盛頓和紐約成為了目標。這次恐怖襲擊的影響在恐怖主義歷史上是獨一無二的。即使在那時，它也被視為與之前發生的任何事情都不同。與過去的分界線太清楚了。歷史分水嶺的感覺立即出現。
由於未能阻止襲擊，美國情報界經歷了一次重大改革。自 1947 年《國家安全法》以來，沒有進行過類似的改變。
由於 9/11，美國和整個國際體系普遍採取了前所未有的預防態度。美國機場的安全措施發生了很大變化。事實上，9/11 事件的影響是遍及全球。世界各地的機場都採取了類似的步驟。美國政府在其主權領土外以法外手段審問恐怖分子嫌疑人。這項新政策背後的恐懼是建立在經驗之上的。之前沒有發生過像 9/11 這樣的事情。今後不應再發生任何類似的事情。
2021 年 8 月 30 日，美國陸軍少將、第 82 空降師指揮官克里斯·多納休登上一架 C-17 運輸機，作為最後一名離開阿富汗喀布爾哈米德卡爾扎伊國際機場的美國軍人，使用夜視儀拍攝的照片光學。（信用：第十八空降軍/通過路透社講義）
布什政府採取了軍事上積極主動和進攻性的政策，旨在防止和懲罰針對美國的恐怖主義。考慮到這一目標，美國在國際聯盟的領導下，在當地武裝團體的幫助下，在 9/11 事件發生後對阿富汗進行了全面襲擊，旨在推翻塔利班政權和摧毀該國的基地組織基地。
美國及其盟友擊敗了基地組織並推翻了塔利班政權。勝利來得很快。對軍事行動的國際支持很普遍。這場戰爭取得了明顯的成功，但建立穩定、民主政權的意圖最終失敗，導致塔利班在被推翻 20 年後接管。
阿富汗不是越南，在越南，美國進行干預以協助盟國對抗共產主義侵略。美國在 2001 年對阿富汗的干預是在美國領土上對美國公民的直接襲擊之後發生的。日本在 1941 年對遠離美國本土的夏威夷的美國軍事目標進行了類似的襲擊，導致全面戰爭，直到日本接受無條件投降才結束。
2001 年的阿富汗由一個政府領導，該政府庇護了在 9/11 事件中發動襲擊的恐怖組織。這是一個合法的目標，不亞於 1941 年的日本。
A historical perspective on US policy in Afghanistan - analysis
The intelligence community in the United States underwent a major overhaul as a result of the failure to prevent the attacks.
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 20:08
A TALIBAN member stands guard as Afghan men take pictures of a vehicle from which rockets were fired, in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 30.
(photo credit: STRINGER/ REUTERS)
The recent takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, and its ensuing effects, should be understood by taking a broad historical perspective. In this context, facile comparisons must be eschewed.
The United States and its allies undertook a military operation in Afghanistan following the worst terrorist attack in living memory. For the first time in modern history, a non-state actor managed to carry out a terrorist attack on a grand scale, killing 2,977 people and wounding more than 6,000 others. The heartland of the United States was targeted as the Twin Towers in New York were destroyed, and the Pentagon in Washington was badly hit. Had it not been for the attempt of passengers on United Airlines flight 93 to gain control of the airplane, which crashed in Pennsylvania, a further target would have been hit, with many more casualties resulting from it.
One knows now that there were four attempts at carrying out terrorist attacks on 9/11. However as the attacks took place, no one knew how many were still pending. The sense of uncertainty prevailing in the US Government during that day, indeed in the following days as well, was striking.
Not since Pearl Harbor in December 1941 had the United States been surprised by an enemy in such a manner. However, contrary to Pearl Harbor, Washington and New York were targeted. The impact of this terrorist attack was like no other in the history of terrorism. It was seen even then as different from anything that had previously occurred. The dividing line with the past was all too clear. The sense of a historical watershed emerged immediately in its wake.
The administration of President George W. Bush made a U-turn in its focus of attention. Whereas prior to 9/11 Bush wished to concentrate on domestic issues, he devoted most of his and his administration’s time and energy to foreign affairs and national security more widely following the unprecedented attack on US citizens.
The intelligence community in the United States underwent a major overhaul as a result of the failure to prevent the attacks. No similar change had been undertaken since the National Security Act of 1947.
An unprecedented preventive attitude prevailed in the United States and in the international system as a whole as a result of 9/11. Security measures at airports in the United States changed considerably. Indeed, the effect of 9/11 was to reach worldwide. Similar steps were adopted at airports throughout the world. The US government interrogated suspected terrorists outside its own sovereign territory by what was reported to be extra-judicial means. The fear behind this new policy was founded upon experience. Nothing like 9/11 had taken place before; nothing remotely similar should ever take place henceforward.
As terrorism changed, so did attitudes toward it. Bush was categorical about it: “Either you are with us or against us.” States sponsoring terrorism were to become a direct target, like Afghanistan. The aim was no longer merely to prevent terrorism through intelligence and police action. An all-encompassing strategy was to be devised. A proactive policy was to be adopted. Terrorist organizations were to be pursued relentlessly through diplomatic, legal, financial and military means.
US Army Major General Chris Donahue, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, steps on board a C-17 transport plane as the last US service member to leave Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan August 30, 2021 in a photograph taken using night vision optics. (credit: XVIII Airborne Corps/Handout via REUTERS)
A militarily proactive and offensive policy was adopted by the Bush administration aimed at both preventing and punishing terrorism against the US. With this objective in mind, the United States, at the head of an international alliance and with the aid of local armed groups, carried out an all-out attack on Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11, aimed at toppling the Taliban regime and destroying the al-Qaeda bases in the country.
The United States and its allies defeated al-Qaeda and toppled the Taliban regime. The victory was swift. International support for the military operation was widespread. The war was a clear-cut success, but the intention to establish a stable, democratic regime, ultimately failed, leading to the takeover by the Taliban, 20 years after it had been toppled.
Afghanistan was no Vietnam, in which the US intervened to assist an allied state against Communist aggression. US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 came in the wake of a direct attack on US citizens on US soil. A similar attack by Japan in 1941 on US military targets in Hawaii, far away from the US mainland, led to a full-out war, which did not end until Japan accepted unconditional surrender.
Afghanistan in 2001 was led by a government that harbored the terrorist group that carried out the attacks on 9/11. It was a legitimate target, no less than Japan was in 1941.
To be sure, Japan unlike Afghanistan was an ethnically homogeneous society, heeding the emperor’s words. Once fully defeated, it was easier to lead it to a stable political order. Thus, the post-war reality in Afghanistan could be expected to be different, but the reasons leading to war were not.
The writer is a lecturer at the School of Political Science, Government and International Affairs at Tel Aviv University.
8 月 15 日喀布爾淪陷後，數千名當地民兵以及軍隊和特種部隊的殘餘部隊在潘杰希爾集結。
2021 年 9 月 2 日 15:30
塔利班戰士身著制服在阿富汗扎布爾省卡拉特的街道上游行，這張靜態圖片取自 2021 年 8 月 19 日上傳的社交媒體視頻
8 月 15 日喀布爾淪陷後，數千名當地民兵以及軍隊和特種部隊的殘餘部隊在潘杰希爾集結。
在前聖戰者組織指揮官的兒子艾哈邁德·馬蘇德 (Ahmad Massoud) 的領導下，他們一直在該省堅守，這是一個陡峭的山谷，難以從外部發起攻擊。
塔利班發言人 Zabihullah Mujahid 說，該組織的戰士已經進入潘杰希爾並控制了一些領土。
然而，阿富汗民族抵抗陣線的發言人表示，它完全控制了所有通道和入口，並阻止了在山谷入口處奪取 Shotul 地區的努力。
“敵人多次嘗試從 Jabul-Saraj 進入 Shotul，但每次都失敗了，”他說，指的是鄰近的 Parwan 省的一個城鎮。
2021 年 9 月 1 日 20:48
自 8 月 15 日喀布爾淪陷以來，多山的潘杰希爾一直是唯一一個反對伊斯蘭組織的省份，儘管塔利班和當地民兵部隊在鄰近的巴格蘭省也發生了戰鬥。
在前聖戰者組織指揮官之子艾哈邁德·馬蘇德 (Ahmad Massoud) 的領導下，數千名當地民兵、軍隊和特種部隊殘餘人員一直在與塔利班抗爭。
2021 年 8 月 17 日，塔利班發言人 Zabihullah Mujahid 在阿富汗喀布爾舉行的新聞發布會上發表講話。（來源：REUTERS/STRINGER）
據兩名抵抗運動領導人稱，至少有 7 名塔利班武裝分子在試圖進入山谷時被殺，隨後發表上述言論。
Afghanistan's last holdout against Taliban suffers heavy casualties
Following the fall of Kabul on Aug. 15, several thousand fighters from local militias and the remnants of army and special forces units have massed in Panjshir.
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 15:30
Taliban fighters march in uniforms on the street in Qalat, Zabul Province, Afghanistan, in this still image taken from social media video uploaded August 19, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS)
Taliban forces and fighters loyal to local leader Ahmad Massoud, fought in Afghanistan's Panjshir Valley on Thursday, with each side saying it had inflicted heavy casualties in recent days of combat in the last province resisting Taliban rule.
Following the fall of Kabul on Aug. 15, several thousand fighters from local militias and the remnants of army and special forces units have massed in Panjshir.
Under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, son of a former Mujahideen commander, they have been holding out in the province, a steep valley that makes attacks from outside difficult.
Efforts to negotiate a settlement appear to have broken down, with each side blaming the other for the failure of talks as the Taliban prepared to announce a government.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the group's fighters had entered Panjshir and taken control of some territory.
"We started operations after negotiation with the local armed group failed," he said. "They suffered heavy losses."
However, a spokesman for the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, a grouping of rebels, said it had full control of all passes and entrances and had driven back efforts to take Shotul district at the entrance to the valley.
"The enemy made multiple attempts to enter Shotul from Jabul-Saraj, and failed each time," he said, referring to a town in the neighboring Parwan province.
MEMBERS OF TALIBAN forces sit at a checkpoint in Kabul earlier this month. (credit: REUTERS)
The spokesman said NRFA forces had also killed large numbers of Taliban fighters on two fronts since clashes first broke out earlier in the week.
"It has been proven to the other side that they cannot resolve this issue through war," the spokesman said in reference to the Taliban's losses.
Both sides provided varying figures for the other's casualties, without offering evidence. It was not possible to verify the numbers of fighters on either side killed.
The Taliban says the Panjshir valley is surrounded on all four sides and a rebel victory is impossible. The rebels say they will refuse to surrender.
Taliban says it surrounded Afghan resistance fighters, calls for peace
In a recorded speech addressed to Afghans in Panjshir, senior Taliban leader Amir Khan Motaqi called on the rebels to put down their weapons.
SEPTEMBER 1, 2021 20:48
TALIBAN FORCES stand guard inside Kabul earlier this month.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
The Taliban has surrounded the only remaining province resisting its rule, a senior leader said on Wednesday, calling on rebels to negotiate a settlement with the group.
Since the fall of Kabul on Aug. 15, mountainous Panjshir has been the only province to hold out against the Islamist group, although there has also been fighting in neighboring Baghlan province between Taliban and local militia forces.
Under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, son of a former Mujahideen commander, several thousand members of local militias and remnants of army and special forces units have been holding out against the Taliban.
In a recorded speech addressed to Afghans in Panjshir, senior Taliban leader Amir Khan Motaqi called on the rebels to put down their weapons.
"The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is home for all Afghans," he said.
The Taliban have declared an amnesty for all Afghans who worked with foreign forces during the past two decades but crowds fearing reprisals have continued to flock to the borders in an attempt to flee the land-locked country.
Motaqi said the Taliban had made many efforts to negotiate with leaders of the opposition forces in Panjshir, "but unfortunately, unfortunately, without any result."
NO REASON TO FIGHT
Taliban forces are making preparations around the four sides of the Panjshir valley and there is no reason to fight, Motaqi said, adding that the anti-Taliban forces should keep in mind that it had not been possible to defeat the Taliban even with the support of NATO and US forces.
"But we are still trying to ensure that there is no war and that the issue in Panjshir is resolved calmly and peacefully," Motaqi said.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid speaks during a news conference in Kabul, Afghanistan August 17, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
The remarks came after at least seven Taliban fighters were killed during an attempt to advance into the valley, according to two resistance leaders.
Italian aid group Emergency said four dead and five wounded had been delivered to its trauma hospital in Kabul from the fighting around the Gulbahar area at the entrance to Panjshir.
A spokesman for the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, which groups the forces in the Panjshir valley, said on Wednesday Taliban forces had launched an offensive two days ago, and had been attacking in three or four different areas but had so far been pushed back.
2021 年 9 月 2 日 21:45
埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西（中）與巴勒斯坦總統馬哈茂德·阿巴斯（右）和約旦國王阿卜杜拉二世在聯合國大會之前在埃及開羅伊蒂哈迪亞總統府舉行會議前合影，2021 年 9 月 2 日
三位領導人希望利用這一國際平台來幫助重振自 2014 年以來一直被凍結的以巴和平進程。
2021 年 9 月 2 日，埃及總統阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西（C）與巴勒斯坦總統馬哈茂德·阿巴斯（右）和約旦國王阿卜杜拉二世在聯合國大會之前在埃及開羅伊蒂哈迪亞總統府舉行會議之前進行了會談（圖片來源：路透社）
當三位領導人“確認巴勒斯坦問題的核心地位以及埃及和約旦在支持巴勒斯坦人民及其公正和合法權利方面的堅定立場時，阿巴斯在開羅得到了對這一觀點的支持，其中最重要的是他們有權體現他們的獨立, 1967 年 6 月 4 日邊界上的主權國家，以東耶路撒冷為其首都，”峰會聲明解釋說。這應該根據聯合國決議和 2002 年沙特和平倡議來完成。
它強調保留耶路撒冷及其伊斯蘭和基督教聖地（如聖殿山）的歷史和法律現狀，強調約旦與該大院的特殊聯繫，正如“歷史上哈希姆對耶路撒冷伊斯蘭和基督教聖地的監護權”所表達的那樣。領導人歡迎埃及在 5 月的 11 天戰爭後穩定加沙局勢並促進飛地重建的努力。
官員們說，阿巴斯對埃及為巴勒斯坦事業所做的不懈努力表示讚賞，並讚揚埃及在結束 5 月的加沙戰爭中“在這方面發揮的歷史作用……體現在其積極和關鍵的作用上”。
Cairo Summit calls on Quartet, not US, to lead Israeli-Palestinian talks
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi hosted King Abdullah of Jordan and PA President Mahmoud Abbas in advance of next month's high level opening of the United Nations General Assembly.
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 21:45
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) poses with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (R) and Jordan's King Abdullah II before their meeting ahead of the UN general assembly at the Ittihadiya presidential palace in Cairo, Egypt, September 2, 2021
(photo credit: REUTERS)
The Quartet must replace the United States as the main broker in any peace talks with Israel, Egyptian, Jordanian and Palestinian leaders declared at the end of a trilateral summit in Cairo on Thursday.
They pledged to “work together to develop a vision to activate efforts to resume negotiations, and to work with brothers and partners to revive the peace process,” according to a statement issued at the summit’s end, and that this would be done “in accordance with international resolutions, and under the auspices of the International Quartet,” composed of the United Nations, the European Union, Russia and the United States.
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi hosted King Abdullah of Jordan and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in advance of next month’s opening of the UN General Assembly in New York.
The three leaders want to use that international platform to help revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which has been frozen since 2014.
The US has traditionally brokered that process, but unlike any of his predecessors in the last three decades, US President Joe Biden has not put forward any plan for a resolution to the conflict.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has also said that peace talks are not possible at this time, and he has no intention of meeting with Abbas.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (R) and Jordan's King Abdullah II before a meeting ahead of the UN general assembly at the Ittihadiya presidential palace in Cairo, Egypt, September 2, 2021 (credit: REUTERS)
Both the US and Israel have spoken of maintaining the status quo until there are optimal conditions for a successful resolution to the conflict.
The PA has warned that talks must take place now, but with a Quartet-led process.
Abbas received support for that view in Cairo when the three leaders “affirmed the centrality of the Palestinian issue and the firm positions of Egypt and Jordan in supporting the Palestinian people and their just and legitimate rights, foremost of which is their right to embody their independent, sovereign state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital,” the summit statement explained. This should be done in accordance with UN resolutions and the 2002 Saudi peace initiative.
This was the only way to achieve “regional and international peace and security” the statement explained, and “all efforts must be united to achieve it.”
The summit statement rejected “illegal Israeli measures that undermine the two-state solution,” including “construction and expansion of settlements…land grabs, house demolitions and the displacement of Palestinians from their homes,” specifically “from the neighborhoods of Jerusalem, especially Sheikh Jarrah and Silwan, and to stop all unilateral measures that undermine peace efforts and the two-state solution.”
It stressed preservation of the historical and legal status quo in Jerusalem and its Islamic and Christian sanctuaries such as the Temple Mount, highlighting Jordan’s special ties to the compound as expressed in the “historical Hashemite guardianship over the Islamic and Christian holy places in Jerusalem.” The leaders welcomed Egypt’s efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza after the 11-day war in May, and to foster reconstruction in the enclave.
They called on the international community to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, and for Israel to recognize Gaza’s humanitarian needs.
Prior to the summit, Abbas met separately with Sisi and briefed him on the latest political developments, the internal Palestinian situation, and general developments in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Palestinian officials said.
Abbas expressed his appreciation for Egypt’s tireless efforts on behalf of the Palestinian cause, the officials said, and also praised Egypt’s “historical role in this regard…manifested in its active and key role” in ending the Gaza war in May.
Abbas and Sisi agreed to continue consulting and coordinating on the Palestinian situation. Sisi affirmed Cairo’s aim of restoring Palestinians’ legitimate rights.
Sisi, the officials added, expressed support for increasing the PA’s role in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, and said he would push for the resumption of negotiations with Israel.
伊朗燃料船進入敘利亞水域以幫助真主黨 - 報導
2021 年 9 月 2 日 15:03
2020 年 9 月 10 日，伊朗船隻 Khark 出現在伊朗的一個未公開地點。
TankerTrackers.com 組織對該信息提出異議，指出“第一艘油輪尚未到達蘇伊士河。 - 第二艘油輪尚未離開伊朗，但已離開港口。- 第三艘油輪離開伊朗。通常需要 10-12 天才能到達到達蘇伊士河。通常。” TankerTrackers.com 稱，幾天前，另一艘裝有 730,000 桶伊朗原油的油輪抵達。
雖然 Al-Akhbar 的報告中關於油輪細節的信息相對較少，但伊朗的 Tasnim 新聞卻提供了更多信息。這表明這對伊斯蘭共和國來說是多麼的自豪。2019 年 7 月，英國皇家海軍陸戰隊臨時扣押了一艘名為Grace 1的大型油輪，該油輪正在前往敘利亞的途中。德黑蘭還向委內瑞拉派遣了運載汽油的船隻。美國在 2020 年夏天從其中一些船隻上查獲了燃料。
真主黨一直與美國不和，並希望使用燃料輸送來表明它可以運行黎巴嫩的經濟。真主黨還希望通過伊朗與中國建立更緊密的聯繫。該恐怖組織過去曾抨擊美國駐黎巴嫩大使多蘿西·謝伊 (Dorothy Shea)。
Al-Akhbar 指出，“伊朗船隻裝有柴油，真主黨秘書長賽義德·哈桑·納斯魯拉在阿舒拉節紀念活動上宣布它從伊朗出發，其最終貨物目的地將是黎巴嫩，並於昨天進入敘利亞領海。 ”
黎巴嫩真主黨領袖賽義德·哈桑·納斯魯拉在紀念阿舒拉節的宗教儀式上通過屏幕發表講話（圖片來源：AL-MANAR/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS）
真主黨還勒索黎巴嫩政治以控制總統職位，阻止組建新政府和任命全職總理。它還派遣戰士到敘利亞威脅以色列，暗殺了 Lokman Slim 等批評者，謀殺了前總理拉菲克·哈里裡，並且可能是在貝魯特港非法儲存硝酸銨的幕後黑手，該港口去年在爆炸中摧毀了貝魯特的部分地區。現在，這個恐怖組織也想成為石油大亨。
TankerTrackers.com 的推文似乎對親伊朗媒體的報導表示懷疑，說明了石油和天然氣運輸的陰暗世界，船舶關閉了 AIS 轉發器以隱藏起來。問題是為什麼親伊朗的媒體會描述一艘裝有石油的油輪的到來，這是一種更經常運往敘利亞的貨物，好像它是運往黎巴嫩的天然氣。他們的目標是讓最近的美國代表團難堪，還是給真主黨吹一些風。然而，對燃料分配的希望破滅可能適得其反。
Iranian fuel ship enters Syrian waters to help Hezbollah - report
This will be a major gamechanger for Lebanon and Hezbollah, which aims to profit off the Iranian fuel that is being shipped.
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 15:03
The Iranian ship Khark is seen at an undisclosed location in Iran, September 10,2020.
(photo credit: IRANIAN ARMY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
An Iranian ship carrying fuel reportedly reached Syria’s territorial waters, according to Iranian media and Lebanese media on Thursday. Al-Akhbar was the first to report the arrival. This will be a major gamechanger for Lebanon and Hezbollah, which aims to profit off the Iranian fuel that is being shipped. The fuel will supposedly be offloaded at a Syrian port and then transferred to Lebanon.
The organization TankerTrackers.com disputed the information, noting that "first tanker has not reached the Suez yet. - Second tanker hasn't left Iran yet but has left port. - Third tanker is leaving Iran. It normally takes 10-12 days to reach the Suez. Normally." TankerTrackers.com said a different tanker with 730,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil arrived several days ago.
While the Al-Akhbar report is relatively short on tanker details, Iran’s Tasnim news has more information. This shows how much of a point of pride this is for the Islamic Republic. In July 2019, UK Royal Marines temporarily seized a large tanker named the Grace 1, which was on its way to Syria. Tehran has also sent ships to Venezuela carrying gasoline. The US seized fuel from some of those ships in the summer of 2020.
Tasnim notes that the “imminent arrival of Iranian fuel shipments to Lebanon coincides with the US congressional statement that ‘the United States seeks to resolve the Lebanese fuel crisis and does not need to import Iranian fuel.’” A US delegation, including Senator Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), was recently in Lebanon warning of the economic free fall there. The US delegation left Beirut yesterday after meeting with Lebanese officials. It is supposed to come to Israel next.
HEZBOLLAH HAS been at odds with the US and wants to use the fuel delivery to show it can run Lebanon’s economy. Hezbollah also wants closer ties with China via Iran. The terrorist group has, in the past, slammed US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea.
"As US officials, we are working hard to find ways to resolve the fuel crisis, and there is no incentive for Lebanon to rely on Iranian fuel or any other fuel being shipped from Syria," Murphy said in Beirut yesterday, according to reports. The same reports note that Syria is under sanctions from the US.
“Informed sources report that due to technical reasons, Iraqi oil is expected to enter Lebanon with a delay, and also in the shadow of the ambiguity of the US decision to import gas from Egypt to Lebanon, the convoy of Iranian fuel ships, which is the first that will enter Lebanon within a week. This is the only hope of the Lebanese people in the shadow of the suffocating US siege against Lebanon,” Iran’s Tasnim says. The news agency is close to the Iranian regime and the IRGC. Iran’s Fars News has the same report on the tanker.
Al-Akhbar notes that the “Iranian ship is loaded with diesel, which Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah announced on the Ashura commemoration that it set off from Iran, and that its final cargo destination will be Lebanon, entered Syrian territorial waters yesterday.”
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaks through a screen during a religious ceremony marking Ashura (credit: AL-MANAR/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
The involvement of Hezbollah and Nasrallah shows that the Iranian-backed group wants credit for this shipment.
“According to sources following the case, the cargo of the ship will be transported by tankers from Syria to Lebanon, after unloading it at a Syrian port," Al-Akhbar wrote. "According to the sources, part of the cargo of the ship will be donated by Hezbollah to government hospitals and care homes, with a private company announcing the sale mechanism for private institutions and electricity generators. According to the sources, two ships will arrive successively by the same mechanism, without revealing whether they are loaded with diesel, gasoline, or both, ‘with the possibility of a fourth ship departing from Iran.’”
WHAT THIS tells us is that Hezbollah, which has already taken over Lebanese foreign policy and defense policy, is now also taking over its energy policy. Soon, Hezbollah – which has its own telephone networks, plays a role in banking, the port and airport, and now has a role in supermarkets – will now be importing gas and oil, essentially making Lebanon a province within the Hezbollah empire. In no other place in the world does an illegal, armed militia run a country the way Hezbollah has a stranglehold over Lebanon.
Hezbollah has also blackmailed Lebanese politics to control the presidency, prevented the formation of a new government and the appointment of a full-time prime minister. It has also sent fighters to Syria to threaten Israel, assassinated critics like Lokman Slim, murdered former prime minister Rafic Hariri, and was likely behind illegal storage of ammonium nitrate at the Beirut Port that destroyed part of Beirut in an explosion last year. Now the terror group is angling to be an oil baron as well.
The goal of Iran's energy export is to provide shipments to Hezbollah – to empower it like it illegally sends it missiles, drones and other weapons.
The tweets from TankerTrackers.com, which appear to cast doubt on the reports in pro-Iran media, illustrate the murky world of oil and gas shipping, with ships that switch off their AIS transponders to hide. The question is why pro-Iran media would depict the arrival of a tanker with oil, which is a more regular shipment to Syria, as if it was gas destined for Lebanon. Is their goal to embarrass the recent US delegation, or to put some wind in the sails of Hezbollah. Dashed hopes for the fuel distribution, however, may backfire.
2021 年 9 月 2 日 17:02
英格蘭國王狮心王理查出現在一位藝術家描繪的 1192 年雅法戰役中。
2021 年 9 月 2 日，標誌著《雅法條約》簽署 829 週年，基督教和伊斯蘭軍隊之間達成休戰並結束第三次十字軍東征。
當時，理查德和十字軍正在建立前一年的兩場成功戰役，阿卡之戰讓十字軍奪回了富有且具有重要戰略意義的港口城市，以及阿爾蘇夫戰役，威脅了薩拉丁對耶路撒冷的控制並被視為十字軍的重大勝利。Arsuf的位置是一個歷史爭論的問題，但特拉維夫大學的研究人員設法確定了 Herzliya、Kibbutz Shefayim 和 Rishpon、Kfar Shmaryahu、現代 Arsuf 和 Arsuf-Kedem 村莊之間的特定區域。
看到這一點，理查據推測發起了進攻，帶領一支只有 54 名騎士、幾百名步兵和大約 2,000 名來自熱那亞和比薩的弩手，正如中世紀拉丁散文敘事Itinerarium Regis Ricardi所記錄的那樣。與薩拉丁約 10,000 名騎兵的軍隊相比，基督徒處於重大劣勢。然而，穆斯林軍隊爆發了，許多學者表示他們擔心這次襲擊只是一支更大部隊的先鋒隊。
薩拉丁後來試圖發動反擊，但防御者堅持並最終擊敗了阿尤布軍隊。確切的損失尚不清楚，但有人估計薩拉丁的損失為 700 人，而理查德僅殺死了兩名士兵。
本尼·甘茨 (Benny Gantz) 和他的聯盟中其他黨派領導人就與巴勒斯坦權力機構主席馬哈茂德·阿巴斯 (Mahmoud Abbas) 會面的鬥爭是政府如何分崩離析的完美例子。
2021 年 9 月 2 日 22:12
利庫德集團週日在拉馬特甘 (Ramat Gan) 的 Kfar Maccabiah 酒店開會，而其領導人本傑明·內塔尼亞胡 (Benjamin Netanyahu) 仍在夏威夷豪華的拉奈島上度假。
這次會議由 MK Yoav Kisch 組織，旨在製定戰略以推翻納夫塔利·貝內特總理的政府，從國家預算開始，該預算必須在 11 月 14 日之前通過成為法律，否則將自動啟動選舉。
30 名利庫德集團 MKs 中只有 11 名出席了會議，但與會者表示，出席人數很少實際上使其更有效。會議結束後，預算進行了分配和分配，派系中的所有MK都接到了停止預算和推翻政府的任務。
年長的 MK 教授從未參與過州預算的年輕立法者。出席會議的 MKs 感到他們有可以成功讓利庫德集團重新掌權的計劃。
現在內塔尼亞胡從夏威夷回來，休息得很好，更加堅定了重返英超的決心。他的同事說，他在島上的時間並沒有說服下個月將滿 72 歲的內塔尼亞胡退出政壇。
“如果內塔尼亞胡在本屆議會重新擔任總理，請不要感到驚訝，”與會人士說。“當 Kadima 掌權時，沒有人認為我們可以打倒他們，但我們成功了，部分歸功於一場名為第二次黎巴嫩戰爭的大型活動。現在有一個名為冠狀病毒的大型事件，並且有一個更加多樣化的聯盟。我們會打破他們。這只是時間問題。”
有助於聯盟避免叛亂的一個因素是，其 20 多位 MK 成員通過挪威法律進入議會。部長們退出議會並允許新的 MKs 進入，使他們完全受制於黨的領導人，無法展示他們的政治力量。
“我們無法增加預算，因為他們購買了 20 名挪威人，”與會者承認。
但利庫德集團 MK 表示，並非每個 MK 都是挪威人，多元化聯盟的微弱多數使其非常脆弱且容易燃燒。
Maariv 報紙上的一幅漫畫最能說明這一點。在漫畫中，甘茨是學生，班尼特是老師，他在黑板上用兩張圖片畫了“關於阿巴斯的課”。巴勒斯坦領導人的照片上寫著“邪惡”這個詞，而 Ra'am（阿拉伯聯合名單）負責人曼蘇爾·阿巴斯的照片被標記為“好”。
Israel's new coalition is 'walking on eggshells' - opinion
The fight between Benny Gantz and the rest of the party leaders in his coalition over meeting with PA President Mahmoud Abbas is the perfect example of how the government could come apart.
By GIL HOFFMAN
SEPTEMBER 2, 2021 22:12
THE LEADERS of the coalition in the Knesset last month.
(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
The Likud faction met on Sunday at Ramat Gan’s Kfar Maccabiah Hotel, without its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, who was still on his family vacation on the luxurious Hawaiian island of Lanai.
The meeting, organized by MK Yoav Kisch, was intended to devise strategies for bringing down Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government, starting with the state budget, which must be passed into law by November 14 or an election would be automatically initiated.
Only 11 out of 30 Likud MKs showed up for the meeting, but participants said the meager attendance actually made it more effective. Following the meeting, the budget was divided up and assigned, and all the MKs in the faction received their tasks in stopping the budget and toppling the government.
Older MKs taught younger legislators who have never worked on a state budget. The MKs who attended left feeling that they had plans that could succeed in returning the Likud to power.
“You can call it a secret plan,” one participant said. “I call it work, the work of the opposition.”
Now Netanyahu has returned from Hawaii well-rested and even more determined to come back to the premiership. His associates said his time on the island did not persuade Netanyahu, who will turn 72 next month, to retire from politics.
“Don’t be surprised if Netanyahu returns to be prime minister in the current Knesset,” the participant in the meeting said. “When Kadima took power, no one thought we could bring them down, but we succeeded, thanks in part to a mega-event called the Second Lebanon War. Now there is a mega-event called the coronavirus, and there is a coalition that is much more diverse. We will break them. It is only a matter of time.”
The budget and its accompanying economic arrangements bill were expected to narrowly pass their first reading late Thursday. But weeks of fighting over every clause in the Knesset Finance Committee lie ahead.
One factor that will help the coalition avoid rebellions is that more than 20 of its MKs entered the Knesset via the Norwegian Law. Ministers quit the parliament and allowed the new MKs to enter, making them completely beholden to their party leaders and unable to flex their political muscles.
“We can’t build on the budget because they bought 20 Norwegians,” the participant in the meeting admitted.
But the Likud MKs said not every MK is Norwegian, and the narrow majority the diverse coalition has makes it very fragile and easily combustible.
The fight this week between Defense Minister Benny Gantz and the rest of the party leaders in his coalition over his meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is the perfect example of how the government could come apart. Gantz tried three times before to persuade Bennett to enable him to meet with Abbas, before catching him at a particularly sensitive time just after his meeting with US President Joe Biden.
Gantz painted the two-and-a-half-hour meeting as necessary to deal with arrangements for delivering funding to Palestinians in Gaza while bypassing Hamas. But Bennett’s associates saw it as an attempt to anger both the Right and the Left inside the government and bring himself to power.
The meeting forced Bennett’s spokesman to say repeatedly that there will be no diplomatic process with the Palestinians, which lost Bennett whatever assets he had gained in the international community in his meeting with Biden. Politicians on the Right had a harder time than ever explaining why they are sitting in a government that speaks to Abbas, while those on the Left had to tell their constituents why they themselves were not meeting with the Palestinian leader.
Bennett and Gantz held a particularly intense meeting after the incident in which each accused the other of character assassination.
A cartoon in the Maariv newspaper illustrated it best. In the cartoon, Gantz was the student and Bennett the teacher, who drew on the board a “lesson about Abbas” with two pictures. The picture of the Palestinian leader had on it the word “evil” and a picture of Ra’am (United Arab List) head Mansour Abbas was labeled “good.”
FINANCE MINISTER Avigdor Liberman ironically defended meeting with both Abbases, at a press conference at his Jerusalem office on Monday. He said economic stability in the PA is an Israeli interest.
The Jerusalem Post asked Liberman at the press conference whether the unprecedented allocations to the Arab sector in the state budget are just a payment to the Ra’am leader, or whether they indicated that the press and the public had gotten something wrong about his (Liberman’s) sentiment toward Arabs all along.
Liberman responded by passionately defending the need for increased funding for Israeli-Arabs. He spoke about the recent spate of intra-Arab violence and murders.
“What’s happening in the Arab sector is absolutely crazy,” he said. “Clearly, it cannot be allowed to continue. Young people who have no jobs resort to crime. That is why we need to invest in education, economic development and security in that sector.”
Liberman said the highlight of the current Knesset was watching Mansour Abbas tell Netanyahu that he invited him four times to the Prime Minister’s Residence on Balfour and Smolenskin streets and told him that whatever Bennett would offer him, he would give him more.
“Bibi needs to stop babbling,” Liberman said. “Netanyahu can take out a patent on what he now calls ‘the Abbas tax” that he says we are paying.”
If Liberman was stressed about passing the budget, he didn’t show it. Amid threats from the agricultural lobby that influences three coalition parties, he said the MKs would have reached an agreement long ago, were it not for the outside pressure.
But Liberman acknowledged that due to the many different views inside the government, the coalition would always be walking on eggshells.
Once the budget passes, other challenges will take its place, threatening the government’s future. Knowing that the Likud is on the sidelines making plans to return remains what keeps the coalition committed to doing everything possible to keep going.