2021.10.05 國際新聞導讀-阿富汗女性權益還是沒有受保障、塔利班反擊聚殲伊斯蘭國呼羅珊、諾貝爾醫學獎得主頒給2位美國科學家研究人體對熱、疼痛的感受體、沙烏地伊朗談判、地球反射太陽光能力降低且越變越暗

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2021.10.05 國際新聞導讀-阿富汗女性權益還是沒有受保障、塔利班反擊聚殲伊斯蘭國呼羅珊、諾貝爾醫學獎得主頒給2位美國科學家研究人體對熱、疼痛的感受體、沙烏地伊朗談判、地球反射太陽光能力降低且越變越暗

由於風險和繁文縟節,阿富汗婦女的抗議活動變得更加艱難

那些違反規定的人有時會被伊斯蘭激進分子的“道德警察”當眾鞭打。

通過路透

2021 年 10 月 4 日 13:40

2021 年 9 月 18 日,阿富汗女孩在阿富汗喀布爾的一所學校上課。

(圖片來源:WANA(西亞新聞社)VIA REUTERS)

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反對塔利班自重新掌權以來所言所行的阿富汗婦女發現,現在更難以抗議,因為臨時示威已被禁止,之前的集會被槍聲和毆打所破壞。

據路透社在全國范圍內採訪的六名女性抗議者稱,家庭內部的抵抗以及對通過社交媒體分享可以識別相關人員的信息的擔憂也起到了威懾作用。

女性要求塔利班尊重她們的公民自由的零星示威活動以及有時的暴力反應都在社交媒體上被拍到,引起世界對平等和人權問題的關注。

上一次塔利班統治是在 1990 年代,他們禁止婦女工作,禁止女童上學,只允許婦女在有男性親屬陪同的情況下離開家,並堅持要求婦女穿著全身罩袍。

那些違反規定的人有時會被伊斯蘭激進分子的“道德警察”當眾鞭打。

這一次,塔利班承諾根據他們對伊斯蘭教法的解釋,賦予婦女更大的自由,包括在教育和就業方面。

然而,年齡較大的女孩仍然沒有回到學校,新政府中沒有女性擔任高級職位,喀布爾的婦女部已經關閉,塔利班表示只允許女性從事少數工作。

2021 年 10 月 3 日,阿富汗喀布爾,塔利班部隊成員乘坐裝有武器的皮卡車。(圖片來源:REUTERS/JORGE SILVA)

想要公開表達憤怒的女性正在努力做到這一點。在塔利班於 8 月 15 日上台後參加示威的六人表示,他們自 9 月初以來就沒有這樣做過。

喀布爾前商務部工作人員納西瑪·巴赫蒂亞里 (Nasima Bakhtiary) 表示:“我們有很多計劃舉行更多抗議活動,但不幸的是,出於安全考慮,我們現在外出不多。”

“我們看到了太多騷擾……關於我們的抗議……我們必須小心。”

本月早些時候,塔利班表示抗議並未被禁止,但那些想要舉行示威的人需要事先獲得許可,並提供將要高呼的地點、時間和口號的詳細信息。

塔利班發言人沒有回應對此報導的置評請求。

抗議消退

根據對組織者、社交媒體帖子和倡導團體的採訪,路透社統計了從 8 月 15 日塔利班上台到 9 月 8 日他們需要許可的七次重要的女性領導的抗議活動。

自 9 月 8 日以來,路透社在關閉後於 9 月 19 日在喀布爾婦女部大樓外數了一次。外面的牌子已經換成了美德防惡部的牌子——道德警察。

喀布爾23 歲的法學院學生和抗議組織者瑪麗亞姆·薩達特 (Maryam Sadat)說,她和其他少數人曾試圖在 9 月 30 日舉行示威,但被塔利班成員驅散。

婦女還參與了更廣泛的抗議活動,其中一些抗議活動涉及數百人。數人被殺,一些示威者遭到毆打,塔利班向空中鳴槍警告以驅散人群。

聯合國人權事務高級專員上個月譴責了針對包括婦女在內的抗議者的暴力行為。

“阿富汗婦女和男子在這個國家充滿不確定性的時期走上街頭,以和平方式推動他們的人權得到尊重……當權者傾聽他們的聲音至關重要,”它說。

像塔拉諾姆·賽耶迪這樣的女性表示,她們害怕繼續示威。

這位 34 歲的喀布爾婦女權利活動家幫助組織了那裡的一些抗議活動,她說她收到了一封信,稱塔利班已經列出了所有抗議的婦女並將為她們搜查房屋。

她不知道這封信是誰寄來的,但作為預防措施,她從她的社交媒體賬戶中刪除了與抗議相關的內容,並表示其他人也這樣做了。

薩達特走得更遠。

“自從我參加抗議以來,我不得不搬家兩次……我的家人很害怕,甚至我的鄰居也很擔心並敦促我不要加入。”

其他人談到了他們親近的人的反對,其中包括祖萊哈·阿克拉米 (Zulaikha Akrami),他是一名 24 歲的國際關係專業畢業生,曾在東北部巴達赫尚省的一家外國非營利組織工作。

“我媽媽試圖威脅我不要去,並說如果你去,不要叫我媽媽,”Akrami 說,她指的是她 9 月 8 日在巴達赫尚參加的一次示威活動。

她說她記得她的弟弟告訴她:“如果他們把你打死,我不會在街上撿你的屍體。”

Protests get harder for Afghan women amid risks and red tape

Those who broke the rules were sometimes whipped in public by the Islamist militants' "moral police."

By REUTERS

OCTOBER 4, 2021 13:40

Afghan girls attend a class at a school in Kabul, Afghanistan, September 18, 2021.

(photo credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

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Women in Afghanistan who object to what the Taliban have said and done since returning to power are finding it harder to protest, now that impromptu demonstrations have been banned and previous rallies were broken up by gunfire and beatings.

Resistance within families and concerns over sharing information over social media that could identify people involved are also acting as deterrents, according to six female protesters Reuters spoke to across the country.

Sporadic demonstrations by women demanding that the Taliban respect their civil freedoms have been captured on social media, as have the sometimes violent responses, drawing the world's attention to issues of equality and human rights.

The last time the Taliban ruled in the 1990s, they banned women from work and girls from school, allowed women to leave their homes only when accompanied by a male relative and insisted that women wore all-enveloping burqas.

Those who broke the rules were sometimes whipped in public by the Islamist militants' "moral police."

This time the Taliban are promising greater freedom for women, including in education and employment, in accordance with their interpretation of Islamic law.

Yet older girls are still not back at school, there are no women in senior positions in the new government, the Women's Ministry in Kabul has been shut and the Taliban have said women will only be allowed to work in a small number of jobs.

Members of Taliban forces ride on a pick-up truck mounted with a weapon in Kabul, Afghanistan, October 3, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/JORGE SILVA)

Women wanting to express their anger publicly are struggling to do so. Six who took part in demonstrations after the Taliban stormed to power on Aug. 15 said they had not done so since early September.

"We have a lot of plans to stage more protests, but unfortunately due to security concerns, we are not going out much right now," said Nasima Bakhtiary, a former commerce ministry worker in Kabul.

"We have seen so much harassment … regarding our protests … we have to be careful."

Earlier this month, the Taliban said protests were not banned, but that those wanting to hold demonstrations needed to seek prior permission and provide details of place, timings and slogans that would be chanted.

Taliban spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

PROTESTS FADE

Based on interviews with organizers, social media posts and advocacy groups, Reuters counted seven significant women-led protests between Aug. 15, when the Taliban came to power, and Sept 8. when they made permission necessary.

Since Sept. 8, Reuters has counted one, on September 19 outside the women's ministry building in Kabul after it was shut down. The sign outside has been switched to that of the Ministry for Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice - the moral police.

Maryam Sadat, a 23-year-old law student and protest organizer in Kabul, said she and a small number of others had tried to stage a demonstration on September 30, but it was dispersed by members of the Taliban.

Women have also been involved in broader protests, some of which have involved hundreds of people. Several people have been killed, some demonstrators have been beaten and the Taliban have fired warning shots in the air to disperse crowds.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights last month condemned the violence against protesters, including women.

"As Afghan women and men take to the streets during this time of great uncertainty in their country to press peacefully for their human rights to be respected … it is crucial that those in power listen to their voices," it said.

Women like Taranom Seyedi said they were scared to continue to demonstrate.

The 34-year-old women's rights activist in Kabul who helped organize some of the protests there said she had received letters saying the Taliban had made a list of all the women who protested and would conduct house searches for them.

She does not know who sent the letters, but has erased protest-related content from her social media accounts as a precaution, and said others had done so too.

Sadat went further.

"Since my participation in the protest, I've had to relocate twice … My family is terrified, and even my neighbors are concerned and urging me not to join."

Others spoke of pushback from those close to them, including Zulaikha Akrami, a 24-year-old international relations graduate who worked at a foreign non-profit organization in the northeastern province of Badakhshan.

"My mother tried to threaten me not to go and said if you go, don't call me mother," said Akrami, referring to a demonstration she attended in Badakhshan on Sept. 8.

She said she recalled her younger brother telling her: "If they beat you to death, I won't be there to pick up your body off the street."

塔利班稱在喀布爾爆炸數小時後部隊摧毀了伊斯蘭國的牢房

伊斯蘭國的當地分支機構,稱為 ISIS-Khorasan,已經聲稱對塔利班目標進行了襲擊,並且仍然不同意該運動。

通過路透

2021 年 10 月 4 日 08:35

8 月 30 日,阿富汗喀布爾,一名 TALIBAN 成員站崗,阿富汗男子為一輛發射火箭的車輛拍照。

(圖片來源:STRINGER/REUTERS)

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該運動發言人表示,在阿富汗首都一座清真寺外發生爆炸造成數名平民死亡和受傷後,塔利班政府軍於週日晚間摧毀了喀布爾北部的一個伊斯蘭國牢房。

沒有確認該行動與週日的爆炸事件有直接關係,這似乎是自 8 月底美軍撤離以來阿富汗首都發生的最嚴重的襲擊事件。

伊斯蘭國的當地分支機構,稱為 ISIS-Khorasan,已經聲稱對塔利班目標進行了襲擊,並且仍然不甘心於 8 月在喀布爾擊敗西方支持的政府的運動。

塔利班發言人 Zabihullah Mujahid 說,一個特別的塔利班部隊週日晚些時候在該市北部的喀布爾第 17 區對伊斯蘭國分子進行了打擊。

“由於這次果斷而成功的襲擊,ISIS 基地被完全摧毀,裡面的所有ISIS成員都被殺,”他在周一早些時候在 Twitter 上發表聲明說。

2021 年 10 月 3 日,阿富汗喀布爾,塔利班部隊成員乘坐裝有武器的皮卡車。(圖片來源:REUTERS/JORGE SILVA)

早些時候,當地媒體報導該地區發生了嚴重衝突,聯繫的居民證實他們在夜間聽到了爆炸聲和槍聲。

塔利班也在與忠於來自喀布爾北部潘杰希爾地區的反對派領導人艾哈邁德·馬蘇德的殘餘勢力作戰,他們表示他們幾乎完全控制了該國。

但周日的暴力事件,以及最近幾天在與巴基斯坦接壤的楠格哈爾和喀布爾以北的帕爾萬等地區發生的一系列較小的事件表明,安全威脅並未消失。

伊斯蘭國聲稱對東部城市賈拉拉巴德的炸彈襲擊以及自殺式襲擊負責,該襲擊造成 13 名美軍和數十名擁擠在喀布爾機場大門外、迫切希望在撤離航班上獲得座位的阿富汗平民喪生。

Taliban say forces destroy Islamic State cell hours after Kabul blast

The local affiliate of Islamic State, known as ISIS-Khorasan, has already claimed to have carried out attacks on Taliban targets and remains unreconciled to the movement.

By REUTERS

OCTOBER 4, 2021 08:35

A TALIBAN member stands guard as Afghan men take pictures of a vehicle from which rockets were fired, in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 30.

(photo credit: STRINGER/ REUTERS)

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Taliban government forces destroyed an Islamic State cell in the north of Kabul late on Sunday, a spokesperson for the movement said, after a blast outside a mosque in the Afghan capital killed and wounded a number of civilians.

There was no confirmation that the operation was directly connected with Sunday's blast, which appeared to be the most serious attack in the Afghan capital since the withdrawal of US forces at the end of August.

The local affiliate of Islamic State, known as ISIS-Khorasan, has already claimed to have carried out attacks on Taliban targets and remains unreconciled to the movement which swept to victory over the Western-backed government in Kabul in August.

Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said a special Taliban unit carried out an operation against ISIS elements in Kabul's 17th district, in the city's north late on Sunday.

"The ISIS base was entirely destroyed and all of the ISIS members inside were killed as a result of this decisive and successful attack," he said in a statement on Twitter early on Monday.

Members of Taliban forces ride on a pick-up truck mounted with a weapon in Kabul, Afghanistan, October 3, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/JORGE SILVA)

Earlier, local media had reported heavy clashes in the area and residents contacted confirmed they had heard explosions and gunfire during the night.

The Taliban, who are also fighting the remnants of forces loyal to Ahmad Massoud, an opposition leader from the Panjshir region north of Kabul, have said they have almost complete control of the country.

But Sunday's violence, and a string of smaller incidents in recent days in areas including Nangarhar on the border with Pakistan and Parwan north of Kabul, have shown that security threats have not disappeared.

Islamic State has claimed responsibility for bomb attacks in the eastern city of Jalalabad as well for a suicide attack that killed 13 US troops and scores of Afghan civilians who had crowded outside the Kabul airport gates, desperate to secure seats on evacuation flights.

諾貝爾醫學獎授予朱利葉斯和帕塔普蒂安

諾貝爾醫學獎常常生活在諾貝爾文學與和平獎的陰影之下,而諾貝爾獎有時則更廣為人知。

通過路透

2021 年 10 月 4 日 13:10

2021 年 9 月 14 日,挪威奧斯陸市中心,挪威諾貝爾研究所的外景和阿爾弗雷德·諾貝爾的半身像。

(圖片來源:路透社/NORA BULI)

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頒獎機構週一表示,美國科學家大衛·朱利葉斯 (David Julius) 和阿登·帕塔普蒂安 (Ardem Patapoutian)因發現溫度和触覺感受器而獲得 2021 年諾貝爾生理學或醫學獎。

他們的開創性發現“讓我們了解了熱、冷和機械力如何啟動神經衝動,使我們能夠感知和適應周圍的世界,”它說。

“這些知識被用於開發治療多種疾病的方法,包括慢性疼痛。”

這個擁有百年曆史的獎項由瑞典皇家科學院頒發,價值 1000 萬瑞典克朗(115 萬美元)。

這些獎項是根據瑞典炸藥發明家和商人阿爾弗雷德·諾貝爾的遺囑設立和資助的,以表彰在科學、文學與和平方面的成就。它們自 1901 年起頒發,經濟學獎於 1969 年首次頒發。

阿格農(左),1966 年獲得諾貝爾獎(來源:維基共享資源)

諾貝爾醫學獎常常生活在諾貝爾文學與和平獎的陰影之下,而諾貝爾獎有時則更廣為人知。但是,由於COVID-19 大流行,醫學已成為人們關注的焦點,一些科學家建議,那些開發出冠狀病毒疫苗的人可能會在今年或未來幾年獲得獎勵。

大流行繼續困擾著諾貝爾頒獎典禮,這些頒獎典禮通常充滿了舊世界的盛況和魅力。由於對病毒和國際旅行的擔憂揮之不去,斯德哥爾摩的宴會已連續第二年推遲。

去年的獎項授予美國人 Harvey Alter 和 Charles Rice 以及英國人 Michael Houghton,他們在鑑定丙型肝炎病毒方面所做的工作會導致肝硬化和肝癌。

Nobel Prize in Medicine awarded to Julius and Patapoutian

The Nobel Prize for Medicine often lives in the shadow of the Nobels for literature and peace, and their sometimes more widely known laureates.

By REUTERS

OCTOBER 4, 2021 13:10

An outside view of the Norwegian Nobel Institute with a bust of Alfred Nobel, in central Oslo, Norway September 14, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/NORA BULI)

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American scientists David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian won the 2021 Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for their discoveries of receptors for temperature and touch, the award-giving body said on Monday.

Their groundbreaking discoveries "have allowed us to understand how heat, cold and mechanical force can initiate the nerve impulses that allow us to perceive and adapt to the world around us," it said.

"This knowledge is being used to develop treatments for a wide range of disease conditions, including chronic pain."

inventor and businessman Alfred Nobel. They have been awarded since 1901, with the economics prize first handed out in 1969.

Agnon (left), recieves the Nobel Prize in 1966 (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

The Nobel Prize for Medicine often lives in the shadow of the Nobels for literature and peace, and their sometimes more widely known laureates. But medicine has been thrust into the spotlight by the COVID-19 pandemic, and some scientists had suggested those who developed coronavirus vaccines could be rewarded this year or in coming years.

The pandemic continues to haunt the Nobel ceremonies, which are usually full of old-world pomp and glamour. The banquet in Stockholm has been postponed for a second successive year amid lingering worries about the virus and international travel.

Last year's prize went to Americans Harvey Alter and Charles Rice and Briton Michael Houghton for work in identifying the Hepatitis C virus, which causes cirrhosis and liver cancer.

化石燃料需求超過了 COVID-19 之前的高點,以應對氣候鬥爭的挫折

根據能源監管機構國際能源署的數據,全球超過四分之三的能源需求仍由化石燃料滿足,不到五分之一由非核可再生能源滿足。

通過路透

2021 年 10 月 4 日 09:16

2016 年,中國唐山附近工廠排放的鳥類。Waskow 強調利用宗教應對氣候變化的重要性

(照片來源:KIM KYUNG-HOON/文件照片/路透社)

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對煤炭和天然氣的需求已經超過了 COVID-19 之前的高點,而石油也緊隨其後,這使人們對大流行將刺激從化石燃料更快地過渡到清潔能源的希望產生了挫折。

全球天然氣短缺、創紀錄的天然氣和煤炭價格、中國電力緊縮以及油價創下三年高位都說明了一個故事——能源需求回升,世界仍然需要化石燃料來滿足大部分能源需求.

FGE 石油需求分析主管 Cuneyt Kazokoglu 告訴路透社:“大流行期間需求下降完全與政府限制流動的決定有關,與能源轉型無關。”

“能源轉型和脫碳是長達十年的戰略,不會在一夜之間發生。”

根據能源監管機構國際能源署的數據,全球超過四分之三的能源需求仍由化石燃料滿足,不到五分之一由非核可再生能源滿足。

能源轉型政策因能源價格上漲而受到抨擊。在一些地方,它們正在產生影響,例如在歐洲,旨在減少排放的高碳價格使公用事業公司不願啟動燃煤電廠以緩解短缺。在中國,減少排放的政策促成了政府決定將能源分配給重工業。但能源價格上漲在很大程度上僅僅是因為生產商在去年大流行導致需求空前下降時關閉了大量產能。

可再生能源是“解決方案,而不是原因” 天然氣、煤炭和在較小程度上石油的生產商因經濟復甦而措手不及,其中大部分原因是政府在能源密集型行業的刺激支出。

國家政策也在電力供應問題中發揮了作用。在中國,國家規定的電價意味著公用事業公司根本負擔不起燒煤和出售電力的費用,因為煤炭成本太高而無法盈利。

中國公用事業公司正在以低於產能的方式生產以避免虧損,而不是因為他們無法生產更多。

同時,大多數天然氣項目的設計和建設需要數年時間,因此短缺現在反映了大流行前以及能源轉型獲得政治動力之前做出的投資決定。

總部位於巴黎的 IEA 負責人表示,能源轉型政策不應歸咎於這場危機。

“管理良好的清潔能源轉型是我們今天在天然氣和電力市場看到的問題的解決方案,而不是問題的根源,”法提赫比羅爾在一份聲明中說。

2020 年虧損已消除

儘管如此,國際能源署的數據顯示,全球對煤炭的需求是最大的單一二氧化碳排放源,去年年底超過了大流行前的水平。

全球煤炭供應緊張,因為佔全球產量約一半的中國在發生一系列事故後收緊了煤礦安全法規,從而削弱了供應。

隨著 2015 年世界氣候變化大會在法國首都附近的布爾歇召開,數百名環保主義者在埃菲爾鐵塔前安排他們的身體,形成希望與和平的信息(圖片來源:REUTERS)

這使得中國從印度尼西亞進口了更多的煤炭,而留給印度等其他進口國的煤炭則減少了。

今年全球煤炭需求預計將增長 4.5%,超過 2019 年的水平。

去年全球天然氣需求下降了 1.9%,降幅小於其他能源,因為公用事業公司提高了電力生產以滿足冬季的取暖需求。

IEA預計,2021 年天然氣需求將增長 3.2%,超過 4 萬億立方米,消除 2020 年的損失,並將需求推高至 2019 年的水平以上。

總部位於奧斯陸的諮詢公司 Rystad Energy 表示,北半球寒冷的天氣模式“導致對煤炭、液化天然氣 (LNG)、電力甚至一些石油的需求增加”。

液化天然氣僅佔全球供應量的 10% 以上,但更容易在全球範圍內交易,因此可以更輕鬆地部署以應對短期供應緊縮。

Rystad 補充說:“令人瞠目結舌的價格飆升及其在夏季和冬季之間的價差將擴大,尤其是天然氣和液化天然氣,”Rystad 補充道,因為在寒冷的冬季天氣中價格高於夏季。

供應缺口,短期反彈

根據四個主要追踪組織的數據,石油需求將在明年某個時候反彈至每天 1 億桶以上的大流行前水平。

石油市場的高價是因為歐佩克和盟國生產商在大流行期間進行了創紀錄的供應削減以匹配對運輸燃料的需求暴跌後,每天仍有數百萬桶石油生產停產。

生產者俱樂部歐佩克對需求反彈提供了最有力的預測,將恢復日期定在 2022 年第二季度。

在更遙遠的未來,大多數預測者預測化石燃料需求將在未來 20 年內達到峰值,並且 IEA 建議不要開展新項目以確保淨零排放,更廣泛的供應缺口可能會引發更多的價格衝擊。

“化石燃料的價格將繼續波動,”戰略與國際研究中心 (CSIS) 高級研究員 Nikos Tsafos 表示。

“在市場萎縮的情況下,進一步投資的理由薄弱,供需失衡的風險更大,這可能會產生短期反彈。”

Fossil fuel demand exceeds pre-COVID-19 highs in setback to climate fight

Over three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency.

By REUTERS

OCTOBER 4, 2021 09:16

BIRDS FLY near factory emissions n Tangshan, China, in 2016. Waskow emphasizes the importance of using religion to fight climate change

(photo credit: KIM KYUNG-HOON/FILE PHOTO/ REUTERS)

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Demand for coal and natural gas has exceeded pre-COVID-19 highs with oil not far behind, dealing a setback to hopes the pandemic would spur a faster transition to clean energy from fossil fuels.

Global natural gas shortages, record gas and coal prices, a power crunch in China and a three-year high on oil prices all tell one story - demand for energy has roared back and the world still needs fossil fuels to meet most of those energy needs.

"The demand fall during the pandemic was entirely linked to governments' decision to restrict movements and had nothing to do with the energy transition," Cuneyt Kazokoglu, head of oil demand analysis at FGE told Reuters.

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"The energy transition and decarbonization are decade-long strategies and do not happen overnight."

Over three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency.

Energy transition policies have come under fire for the run up in energy prices. In some places, they are having an impact, such as in Europe where high carbon prices aimed at reducing emissions have made utilities reluctant to switch on coal-fired plants to alleviate the shortage. In China, policies to reduce emissions have contributed to the government's decision to ration energy to heavy industry. But much of the rise in energy prices is simply because producers took enormous amounts of capacity offline last year when the pandemic led to an unprecedented fall in demand.

RENEWABLES A "SOLUTION, NOT A CAUSE" Producers of gas, coal, and to a lesser extent oil have been caught flat-footed by the economic recovery, much of it sparked by government stimulus spending in energy-intensive industries.

National policies have also played a role in the power supply problems. In China, state-mandated power prices mean utilities simply cannot afford to burn coal and sell the power, because the cost of coal is too high to make a profit.

Chinese utilities are producing below capacity to avoid losing money, not because they cannot produce more.

Meanwhile, most gas projects take several years to design and build, so the shortage now reflects investment decisions taken pre-pandemic - and before the energy transition gathered political momentum.

The chief of the Paris-based IEA said energy transition policies were not to blame for the crisis.

"Well-managed clean energy transitions are a solution to the issues that we are seeing in gas and electricity markets today – not the cause of them," Fatih Birol said in a statement.

2020 LOSSES ERASED

Still, the IEA's data show global demand for coal, the single largest source of CO2 emissions, surpassed pre-pandemic levels late last year.

Global coal supplies are tight because China, responsible for around half of global output, has tightened safety regulations at mines after a spate of accidents, sapping supply.

Hundreds of environmentalists arrange their bodies to form a message of hope and peace in front of the Eiffel Tower as the World Climate Change Conference 2015 convened at Le Bourget near the French capital (credit: REUTERS)

That has left China importing more coal from Indonesia, in turn leaving less for other importers such as India.

Global coal demand is set for with a 4.5% increase this year, pushing beyond 2019 levels.

Global natural gas demand fell 1.9 percent last year, a smaller drop than other energy sources as utilities cranked up power production to meet heating needs during winter.

But the IEA projects gas demand will rise 3.2% in 2021 to over 4 trillion cubic metres, erasing 2020 losses, and pushing demand above 2019 levels.

Cold weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said, "caused a rise in demand for coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), electricity and even a bit of oil (that) is here to stay".

LNG accounts for just over 10% of the global supply but is more readily traded globally so can be deployed more easily to cover short-term supply crunches.

"Eye-popping price spikes and their spread between summer and winter will widen, especially for gas, both natural and liquefied," Rystad added, as prices are higher amid cold winter weather than in summer.

SUPPLY GAPS, SHORT-TERM RALLIES

Last to catch up, oil demand is set to rebound toward pre-pandemic levels above 100 million barrels per day sometime next year, according to four of the major tracking groups.

High prices on oil markets are because OPEC and allied producers still have millions of barrels per day of oil production offline after they made record cuts to supply during the pandemic to match plummeting demand for transport fuel.

Producer club OPEC offers the most robust prediction for a demand rebound, putting the recovery date at the second quarter of 2022.

In the more distant future, with most forecasters predicting a peak in fossil fuel demand within the next two decades and the IEA recommending against new projects to ensure net-zero emissions, broader supply gaps could fuel more price shocks.

"Prices for fossil fuels will remain volatile", said Nikos Tsafos, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"The risk of a supply-demand imbalance is greater in a market that is shrinking where the case for further investment is weak, which could produce short-term rallies."

沙特阿拉伯確認與伊朗新政府進行第一輪會談

2016 年斷絕關係的長期宿敵沙特阿拉伯和伊朗於 4 月開始談判,當時華盛頓和德黑蘭正在討論恢復利雅得反對的核協議。

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2021 年 10 月 3 日 20:13

2020 年 2 月 24 日,沙特外交部長費薩爾·本·法爾漢·沙特出席在瑞士日內瓦舉行的聯合國裁軍談判會議。

(圖片來源:路透社)

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沙特阿拉伯週日證實,它已於上個月與伊朗新政府舉行了第一輪直接會談,這是今年早些時候開始的旨在緩和海灣競爭對手遜尼派和什葉派穆斯林勢力之間緊張局勢的進程的一部分。

在 2016 年斷絕關係的長期敵人於 4 月開始談判,當時華盛頓和德黑蘭正在討論恢復利雅得及其盟國反對的核協議。

在伊朗新任強硬總統易卜拉欣·賴西於 8 月上任之前的幾個月裡,沙特與伊朗進行了三輪會談。

外交部長費薩爾·本·法爾漢·沙特王子表示,最新一輪會議於 9 月 21 日舉行。他沒有透露會議地點。這一日期恰逢賴西在紐約聯合國大會上的演講。

“這些討論仍處於探索階段。我們希望它們將為解決雙方之間未解決的問題提供基礎,我們將努力實現這一點,”他在聯合新聞發布會上說。

伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西於 2021 年 9 月 21 日在美國紐約市通過預先錄製的視頻遠程向聯合國大會第 76 屆會議發表講話。(來源:REUTERS/EDUARDO MUNOZ/POOL)

多年來,沙特阿拉伯和伊朗在敘利亞、黎巴嫩和伊拉克的地區衝突和政治爭端中支持對立雙方,自 2015 年以來,沙特阿拉伯領導阿拉伯聯盟在也門與與伊朗結盟的胡塞運動發動戰爭。

利雅得和德黑蘭都表示,他們希望會談能夠緩和緊張局勢,同時淡化對重大外交突破的期望。伊朗沒有立即對 9 月 21 日的會談發表評論。利雅得表示將根據當地的現實情況來判斷賴西政府。

美國前總統唐納德特朗普放棄了伊朗接受限制其核計劃以換取解除制裁的協議。德黑蘭的回應是違反了其中的一些條款。

涉及美國和伊朗的關於恢復該協議的間接談判於 6 月被擱置,在 Raisi 的領導下尚未恢復。西方列強敦促伊朗重返談判。

費薩爾王子在歐盟外交政策負責人何塞普博雷爾訪問利雅得期間發表講話,他說他已向他的合作夥伴簡要介紹了重啟核談判的前景。

Saudi Arabia confirms first round of talks with new Iranian government

Longtime foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, who severed ties in 2016, began talks in April, at a time when Washington and Tehran were discussing reviving a nuclear pact that Riyadh had opposed.

By REUTERS

OCTOBER 3, 2021 20:13

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan al-Saud attends the Conference on Disarmament at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, February 24, 2020.

(photo credit: REUTERS)

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Saudi Arabia confirmed on Sunday it had held its first round of direct talks with Iran's new government last month, part of a process begun earlier this year to reduce tension between the Gulf's rival Sunni and Shi'ite Muslim powers.

The longtime foes who severed ties in 2016 began talks in April, at a time when Washington and Tehran were discussing reviving a nuclear pact that Riyadh and its allies had opposed.

Three rounds of Saudi-Iranian talks were held in Iraq in the months before Iran's new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, took office in August.

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said the latest round had taken place on Sept. 21. He did not give the location of the meeting. The date coincides with a speech by Raisi at the UN General Assembly in New York.

"These discussions are still in the exploratory phase. We hope they will provide a basis to address unresolved issues between the two sides and we will strive and work to realize that," he told a joint news conference.

Iran's President's Ebrahim Raisi remotely addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly by pre-recorded video in New York City, US, September 21, 2021. (credit: REUTERS/EDUARDO MUNOZ/POOL)

Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed opposing sides in regional conflicts and political disputes in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq for years, and Saudi Arabia has led an Arab coalition waging war against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen since 2015.

Riyadh and Tehran have both said they hope the talks can ease tensions, while playing down expectations of a major diplomatic breakthrough. Iran did not immediately comment on the Sept. 21 round of talks. Riyadh has said it would judge the government of Raisi by the reality on the ground.

Former US President Donald Trump abandoned the agreement under which Iran had accepted curbs to its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions. Tehran responded by violating some of its terms.

Indirect talks involving the United States and Iran on reviving that pact were put on hold in June and have yet to resume under Raisi. Western powers have urged Iran to return to the negotiations.

Prince Faisal was speaking during a visit to Riyadh by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who said he had briefed his partners on the prospects for restarting the nuclear talks.

研究發現,隨著氣候變化使雲層蒸發,地球正在變暗

研究人員表示,在過去 20 年裡,由於美國大陸西部閃亮、低雲層的覆蓋減少,行星的反射率有所下降

斯圖爾特溫納 今天,下午 5:21

1969 年 5 月 18 日,阿波羅 10 號航天器在穿越月球的月球之旅中拍攝的 36,000 海里以外的地球。(美國宇航局通過美聯社)

一項新的研究發現,由於氣候變化,地球變得越來越暗,反射的光越來越少,這正在減少關鍵地區的閃亮雲層。

研究人員研究了包括衛星測量在內的多年數據,發現地球的反射率(稱為反照率)在過去二十年中顯著下降。

結果,每個月新月前夕,地球反射的光會在月球被太陽直射的情況下隱隱約約地照亮時,地照度有所下降。

根據AGU 上週的一份聲明,研究人員發現:“地球現在每平方米反射的光比 20 年前減少了約半瓦,其中大部分下降發生在過去三年的地球光照數據中。” Journals,一個地球物理網站,於 8 月底發表了這篇論文

根據這項研究,地球的反射率下降了 0.5%,地球反射了大約 30% 的陽光。

研究人員分析了南加州大熊太陽天文台從 1998 年到 2017 年收集的數據,以及過去幾年的最新測量結果。

該研究的主要作者、新澤西理工學院研究員菲利普古德說:“當我們分析過去 3 年的數據時,反照率的下降讓我們感到意外,因為 17 年的反照率幾乎持平。”該聲明。

地球反射的光量受到達地球的淨陽光及其反射率的影響。反照率的變化與太陽亮度的周期性變化不匹配,導致研究人員得出結論,這是地球本身發生的一些變化。

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根據美國宇航局雲和地球輻射能係統衛星收集的數據,特別是東太平洋上空明亮、反射性低的雲層減少了。

由於太平洋年代際振盪(一種與全球氣候變化有關的區域氣候週期)逆轉,美洲大陸西海岸附近的同一地區的海面溫度有所升高。

加州大學河濱分校的行星科學家愛德華·施維特曼(Edward Schwieterman)沒有參與這項研究,他說這些發現“非常令人擔憂”,因為許多科學家曾希望地球上的變暖條件會產生更多的雲,從而增加反照率,這將有助於減緩變暖過程,平衡氣候。

“但這表明事實恰恰相反,”施維特曼在 AGU 期刊聲明中說。

Earth is dimming as climate change boils away clouds, study finds

Researchers say planet’s reflectivity has dropped over the past 20 years, amid reduction in shiny, low cloud cover to the west of continental America

By STUART WINER Today, 5:21 pm

·

Earth from 36,000 nautical miles away as photographed from the Apollo 10 spacecraft during its trans-lunar journey toward the moon, May 18, 1969. (NASA via AP)

Earth is becoming dimmer, reflecting less and less light due to climate change, which is reducing shiny cloud cover in key areas, a new study has found.

Researchers studied years of data, including satellite measurements, and found that Earth’s reflectivity, known as albedo, has dropped significantly over the past two decades.

As a result, there has been a drop in earthshine, the light reflected from Earth that faintly illuminates the moon when it is otherwise hidden from the direct rays of the sun, each month just before a new moon.

“The Earth is now reflecting about half a watt less light per square meter than it was 20 years ago, with most of the drop occurring in the last three years of earthshine data,” the researchers found, according to a statement last week from AGU Journals, a geophysical website that published the paper at the end of August.

That is a 0.5 percent drop in reflectivity for Earth, which reflects about 30% of the sunlight that shines on it, according to the study.

Researchers analyzed data gathered by the Big Bear Solar Observatory in Southern California from 1998 to 2017, along with more recent measurements over the past few years.

“The albedo drop was such a surprise to us when we analyzed the last three years of data after 17 years of nearly flat albedo,” the lead author of the study, Philip Goode, a researcher at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, said in the statement.

The amount of light reflected by Earth is affected by the net sunlight that reaches the planet and its reflectivity. The changes in albedo did not match up with periodic changes in the brightness of the sun, leading researchers to conclude it was something about Earth itself that had been altered.

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In particular, there has been a reduction in bright, reflective low-lying clouds over the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to data gleaned from satellites that are part of NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System.

An increase in sea surface temperature has been recorded in the same area off the west coast of the American continent due to a reversal in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a regional climate cycle that has been linked to global climate changes.

Edward Schwieterman, a planetary scientist at the University of California at Riverside, who did not participate in the study, said that the findings are “quite concerning” as many scientists had hoped that warming conditions on Earth would generate more clouds and so increase albedo, which would then contribute to moderating the warming process, balancing the climate.

“But this shows the opposite is true,” Schwieterman said in the AGU Journals statement.

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