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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investme ...
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After a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise. In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent. Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures. In Japan, corporate bankruptcies involvi…
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Elon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission. Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance. Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We…
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Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors. Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date,…
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A new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group. In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted con…
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As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance? Michael Pettis Books: T…
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Adam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point. Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital f…
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A Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth. The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company. Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who ne…
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Jesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York. Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roarin…
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Big startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year. Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period…
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How much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%? The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally? In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent. We discuss the careers and lifestyles of the one per…
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How is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021. All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Deriv…
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Dozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud." Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange. Dr Dozy, the London-based…
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In this week's podcast we look at the biggest financial news stories of the year, bank runs, The Elon Musk - Mark Zuckerberg fight, The Sam Bankman Fried Trial and much more. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rv…
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Higher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history. Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record. The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sales slowing at …
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Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei describes himself as an anarcho- capitalist and says that he will take a chainsaw to the Argentine economy. He has campaigned that he will dollarize the economy and shut down the central bank. What does this mean, and could it work? Argentina mostly exports agricultural commodities but used to be one of the w…
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Elon Musk told advertisers who have halted spending on X due to his endorsement of an antisemitic post to “go f**k” themselves, in an unhinged interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (who Elon calls Jonathan). Musk said that a recent exodus of big brands was “going to kill the company, and the whole world will know the advertisers killed the company”. Mu…
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Fired CEO Sam Altman will return to run OpenAI - the company he co-founded, following days of speculation and turmoil at the leading generative artificial intelligence start-up. In a dramatic reversal, Altman, who was fired by OpenAI’s board of directors last week, will be reinstated under the supervision of a new board. Greg Brockman, the co-found…
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When Mao Zedong died in 1976 his successors seized the opportunity to reassess the wisdom of Chinas rigid commitment to Marxist doctrine. With Deng Xiaoping in charge, China scoured the globe in search of economic expertise to put China on the path to domestic prosperity and ultimately global economic power. The World Bank describes China’s growth …
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call to all western governments. Alongside China’s rise, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran and instability in Africa, the new era of global conflict has forced governments around the world to commit to more defense spending. Will voters around the world accept the high price of military deterrence? Patric…
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Sign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/ Since founding Bridgewater nearly 50 years ago, Ray Dalio has become one of the world’s richest investors. He is widely credited with having predicted and profited from both the 1987 crash and the 2008 financial crisis. He is the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund an…
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A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of all seven criminal counts against him. The FTX founder faces a maximum sentence of 115 years in prison. In today's podcast we discuss the findings of the trial and speak with Tiffany Fong who has been there in person reporting from the courthouse in New York along with people like Michael Lewis. Tiffany …
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A podcast about how "passive income" money-making scams seem to have taken over the internet, and the economic implications of such scams. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.…
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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed above 4.9% yesterday, its highest level since July 2007. The bond-market sell-off that's pushing yields higher is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras. Losses on Ten Year Treasury Bonds are close to 50% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged even more. Those …
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Oil rich countries have long used sovereign-wealth funds to store their windfall profits from periods of high prices for future years when hard times might arise. Ireland on Tuesday created its own sovereign wealth fund thanks to outsize tax revenues from international companies seeking to lower their tax bills. In the past eight years, the country…
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WeWork announced this week that it would not make two sets of interest payments totaling about $95 million, a move meant to jump-start negotiations with its lenders at the same time it tries to cut costs with its landlords. The missed interest payments will spur speculation of a bankruptcy filing. But WeWork says it has the cash on hand, and the co…
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A large number of western firms have continued to operate and invest in Russia since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. These companies are estimated to have earned profits of around $20 billion dollars since the invasion. The problem for these companies is that the Kremlin has blocked them from accessing those profits in an effort to clamp down on compa…
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FTX has sued Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, the parents of Sam Bankman-Fried, claiming they enriched themselves by siphoning off millions of dollars in “fraudulently transferred and misappropriated funds” from the cryptocurrency exchange their son founded. In a court filing earlier this week, the FTX debtors said Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried…
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When a company, brand or product gets really big, it can be easy to imagine that company will remain in business forever. Yet businesses rise and fall over time, with millions and billions of dollars changing hands as executives try to stay current on what consumers want at any given time. Today let's look at some of the biggest business mistakes i…
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Bloomberg journalist Zeke Faux travelled around the world to better understand the world of crypto currencies, meeting the biggest names in the space on superyachts in the Caribbean and at parties in Miami and travelling to El Salvador to see how bitcoin is being used in the real world. Along the way he buys a Bored Ape with his book advance and se…
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The US-China trade war is rewiring global trade. While the US seeks to reduce its reliance on China and other geopolitical rivals and start sourcing imports from closer to home, Mexico is starting to shine. Mexico has just overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https…
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Get one month of complete digital access to the Financial Times for $1 by clicking here: https://subs.ft.com/patrick_boyle?segmentId=979ca37f-c690-7295-5eba-bf4ff33d3bb4 Goldman Sachs is reported in the FT to have used a fund set up with Chinese state money to buy a series of US and UK companies, including one with a cyber security business that pr…
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Click my CoPilot https://go.mycopilot.com/PatrickBoyle link to get a 14-day FREE trial with your own personal trainer! China’s economy has been struggling to reawaken from an economic shutdown that was officially ended last year. Chinese authorities are now reported to be pressuring economists and analysts within the country to avoid discussing any…
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The Panic of 1907 was a six-week stretch of bank runs in October and early November of 1907, where the stock market crashed, the city ran out of money and numerous banks and brokerage firms went bankrupt. The event was triggered by an earthquake a year earlier in San Francisco and a failed short squeeze in United Copper stock by Fritz Augustus Hein…
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The demand for electricity has been soaring around the world, and this increase in demand is expected to continue. Governments have been creating rules to electrify transportation, heating, household appliances and even industrial processes. In today's podcast we look at the electric grids that we have in place and copper production to discuss if o…
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In today's podcast I look at the affordability of real estate in the United States and around the world. I try to help my friend who runs a popular YouTube channel "How Money Works" find a good place to live. If you can live wherever you want to, where should you live? Here is a link to his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@HowMoneyWorks/vi…
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The performance of the US stock market is the most concentrated it has ever been. Seven of the biggest stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Google owner Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — have rallied sharply this year gaining between 35 per cent and 210 per cent this year. The remaining 496 stocks have barely moved. Five big tech companies make up n…
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In Europe’s battle against inflation, new villains have emerged: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift! Last month, as Beyoncé kicked off her world tour, fans flocked to Sweden from around the world for the shows, pushing up prices for hotel rooms. This could explain some of the reason Sweden’s inflation rate was higher than expected in May according to Michael…
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In March 2023 Bernard Arnault, the chairman and CEO of luxury fashion giant LVMH overtook Elon Musk to become the wealthiest person in the world. He is the only European in the list of top 10 richest people in the world. His wealth has skyrocketed with the massive growth in LVMH’s share price. And it's not hard to see why they’re so profitable. It’…
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When the Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act for clean energy and tech last year, Americas trade allies in Europe and Asia were surprised. Now they are scrambling for ways to catch up. Are western economies in a war of subsidies with each other and China over technology and green infrastructure? Pat…
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Over the last three years we have seen the biggest car price increases in history. Last year the average cost of a new car in the United States was forty-seven thousand dollars and the average used car price today is just under thirty thousand dollars. Car buyers today aren’t just faced with higher car prices, the average interest rate on a new car…
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In The UK, September 16, 1992, is known as Black Wednesday, the day when speculators including George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller "broke the pound." This expression is used to describe the moment in time where market forces coalesced to force the British government to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) by removing its currency from…
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Rising mortgage payments are squeezing the finances of millions of borrowers in Britain, threatening to undermine household spending and the broader economy. The dream of a soft landing that would have the Bank of England squeeze out inflation without condemning the country to a recession looks increasingly remote. Inflation has been more stubborn …
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Aside from losing over 1.13 million people, the United States is thought to have lost billions of dollars in pandemic relief fund fraud, according to the most recent Associated Press analysis, published this week. The analysis discovered that fraudsters took more than US$280 billion in relief cash, while another $123 billion was lost or misspent. “…
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This week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, two of the world’s biggest crypto exchanges, on which investors buy and trade a large offering of cryptocurrencies. The SEC’s main allegation against Coinbase is that it’s running an unregistered securities exchange — like if the Nasdaq independ…
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We’ve all heard the story of how a lottery win, which at first may appear to be a great blessing slowly reveals itself to be a curse. In today's video we look at what happens to people after they win the lottery. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Cor…
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Turkish voters return to the polls this weekend to choose a president. Before the first round of the election, polls suggested that voters were evenly divided between the two biggest parties. However, Erdogan’s unexpectedly strong first round has put pressure on the Turkish lira and knocked other Turkish assets ahead of this weekend’s runoff vote. …
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The next big potential risk to the U.S. economy may be lurking in office buildings across the country's downtown districts. With so many people still working from home, companies are cutting back on office space which threatens to unleash even more headwinds for the U.S. economy. What is going wrong in the commercial real estate market, and how mig…
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The three-decade era of globalization risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors. In this video we look at the economic evidence in a paper called Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? by Pinelopi Goldberg of Yale University and Tristan Reed of The World Bank. Here is a link to the full paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/…
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Legendary corporate raider and activist Carl Icahn found himself on the wrong side of a familiar battle this week when the short selling investment firm Hindenburg Research took aim at Icahn’s publicly traded holding company, alleging in a new report that Icahn Enterprises L.P. (IEP) is overstating the value of its private asset portfolio, and that…
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The FDIC took possession of First Republic Bank on Monday, resulting in the third failure of an American bank since March. JPMorgan Chase, already the largest U.S. bank by several measures, emerged as the buyer in a weekend auction for First Republic. It will get all of the ailing bank’s deposits and a “substantial majority of assets.” Patrick's Bo…
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