Markets are recovering from tariff troubles on Monday; a brief history of Trump's past trade wars & results; Google's earnings miss & correction; earnings have been okay, but expectations are slipping. The China Trade War retaliation begins; it's all about posturing. Markets rally from Monday; if you're worried about the volatility, there's too muc…

Well that was fast.Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. The announcement of tariffs set the market on its heels Monday morning as media writers quickly pushed narratives about the potential impacts. However, as suggested on the “Real Investment Show” before the marke…

It's the first week of February; Quarterly Reports Preview: About 80% of S&P will have reported by week's end, and the Buy Back Window more fully opens next week, providing additional market support. President Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico may be short-lived (indeed, following this morning's show, Mexico blinked, promising to send troops…

Apple's outlook will set the tone for today's market action; the January effect will be set by the end of the day. Rich & Matt discuss tariffs & volatility; Mexico and Canada are targets. Inflation data due today with the PCE report. The Fed's target is still 2%, and there's no reason to lower rates for now. This is forcing markets to shift focus; …

It's the end of the month, and the determining day for the January Barometer is tomorrow. Markets knee-jerked all over the board following yesterday's Fed announcements to hold firm at current rates. Economic news was not encouraging, with export up, imports down, suggesting the economy is weaker than thought; labor and demand dynamics. There is a …

Today is Mega-cap earnings Day, and there's also a lot of economic data to be revealed. Plus, this afternoon will see the latest announcement from the Federal Reserve. Expectations are for the Fed to hold firm on rates this time. Interestingly, despite Monday's selloff, money flows have continued to come into the markets. In fact, on Tuesday (1/28)…

The race is on for dominance in the artificial intelligence arena with China's release of DeepSeek. Markets initially nose-dived Monday, but ended up slightly higher (with the exception of Nvidia). This volatility underlines the necessity for portfolio diversification. The pullback in an oversold market was not unexpected. The news resulted in the …

The unfolding of China's DeepSeek technology, and history's shortest trade war (with Colombia) highlighted the weekend. What are the investing opportunities from DeepSeek? Too soon to tell; allow markets to sort it out today, and make no rash moves. What DeepSeek means to markets; what's the difference from AI? Lance compares the 1960's space race …

Richard and Jonathan discuss markets' response to initial flurry of activity from the Trump White House; commentary on TrumpCoin and turbo-charged crypto: It's all about marketing. Richard reveals his penchant for scratch-offs (with discretionary money). Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon, made big media headlines by suggesting that drones will be used …

What does the $500-B Stargate announcment really mean for the economy (remember Carrier's "on-shoring" of jobs)? Lance recounts the benefits and innovations that came out of the US Space Race. Markets are back at all time highs; choose your entry point wisely. Lance & Michael review the concepts of trimming portfolios and taking profits; how to pro…

1-17-25 What Fiduciary Advisors Can Learn From Jimmy Carter by Lance Roberts由Lance Roberts

It isn’t just Wall Street analysts who are optimistic about 2025 returns. Retail investors are the most optimistic about higher stock prices in 2025 by the most on record. Unsurprisingly, that sentiment resulted in the psychological rush to overpay for assets, pushing forward 1-year valuations sharply higher. Lance returns from Houston's winter fre…

Lance and Michael interpret the latest CPI, PPI, PCE, and GDP numbers: Which one is most-meaningful to the Fed? Earnings Season continues with Big Banks reporting; JPMorgan kills it, but how are regional banks faring? Stock buy backs this time around are expected to exceed $1-Trillion. mostly benefitting large cap stocks. Markets cling to 100-DMA, …

It's CPI Day (December Core Inflation clocked-in at a lower than expected .2%) so let's pin it all on the Fed. Weaker PPI & Higher Trasnportation costs; Used car prices are keeping inflation elevated, thanks to storm and fire loss replacement demand. Markets flirting w 100_DMA, holiding support; what a weaker CPI print may mean. Lance pranks Danny …

PPI & CPI Preview: Earnings season is about to commence, followed by the opening of the Buy Back window. Higher yields (and term premiums) are weighing on markets. Term premiums are just a measure of sentiment; watch what companies say, impacted by higher yields. Markets rally to just above the 100-DMA. Lance reviews investor sentiment, credit spre…

The Cleveland Fed's expectations for increased inflation; Oil prices rise on increased Russia sacntions (thanks, Joe Biden); economic impact of California wildfires & the Broken Window Theory: There will be a short-term uptick from rebuilding activity. Markets point lower on hawkish Fed tone; current correction process is normal. There is not data …

Richard and Jonathan discuss the narratives that are driving the markets, and the fear factor for bond investors. Is the response to tariff threats an over-reaction? How to deal with emotions in investing. Menwhile, job satisfaction is highest among the 60+ crowd: The group has been working longer, and understands the value of socialization; retire…

Markets barely achieved a positive close on Wednesday, to create a string of positive action for the first five trading days in January. (Markets are closed today in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter.) There's a market consolidation underway, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA about to cross. Lance & Michael discuss the Fed's sentiment shift about i…

With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sect…

As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn discuss …

We're baaack from our Winter Break, and it seemed as if Santa arrived on Christmas Eve, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, by the end of the year, it seemed investors were naughty this year and received a “lump of coal,“ with markets selling off back toward recent lows. Despite Friday’s impressive reflexive rally, the mar…

We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging …

It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most …

Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mi…

Microstrategies joins the S&P 100 (just in time to crash?) Bitcoin continues to climb. The FEd will cut rates on Wednesday, but it's commentary and outlook are what will really count. Look for more volatility heading into the Fed meeting; the current rally may end by the 18th. Oil prices have been struggling, thanks to slowing economic growth = les…

Markets are setting up for a Santa Claus Rally; inflation pressure remains. What will the Fed do next week, and what will Powell SAY? The impact of tariffs may not be too dire; optimism abounds on Wall Street. Danny & Matt discuss end of year RMD's and how to best handle non-spousal Inherited IRA distributions. Constant changes in IRS rules are dif…

Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was O…

Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs …

Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all…

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic …

Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, v…

Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubbl…

Welcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration pic…

Credit spreads can greatly assist in determining the risk of a correction or bear market by reflecting the perceived risk of corporate bonds compared to government bonds. The spread between risky corporate bonds and safer Treasury bonds remains narrow when the economy performs well. This is because investors are confident in corporate profitability…

Thanksgiving week is spread out before us like a serving table laden with food: Markets will trade in a holiday-shortened week with moods of expectation for high consumer spending. Lance reveals his strategy for Christina's Christmas present. Markets' goal is to generate 50-points, targeting S&P 6,000, despite limited downside. Bond Yields are drop…

A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against …

It's Nvidia Day--markets will respond accordingly tomorrow. Expectations are high for earnings and forward guidance. Analysts are generally looking for lowered expectations in 2025, as President Trump faces a waning economy. Meanwhile, markets have had a good test of support at the 20-DMA. Volatility anticipated in a holiday-shortened trading week …

WalMart reports it's close to profitability; expect some market chop this week; NVIDIA reports Wednesday evening, and markets will respond on Thursday. A look at the performance of the Top Ten Stocks: Everyone wants to be in on the US Markets. Markets on Tuesday dropped to bounce off the 20-DMA, and continue to run along the ever-rising trend line.…

It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in …

Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwi…

It's Inflation Day: Expectations are for a .3% print for October (the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI rising.2%, and up 2.6% over the past 12-months). Remember, it's only a guess; why inflation is destined to rise. Stocks remain over-bought; watch for pre-Thanksgiving volatility; more than half in our Twitter poll sees the S&P at 6,200 by E…

Earnings Season is winding up, and The Next Big Report to come will be from NVIDIA on 11/20. Markets are on fire for now; what will the Fed do next? We're expecting one more rate cut in December, and then a pause. This week's inflation print could be higher due to YOY comparisons. Mutual Fund Distributions are coming in December; do not be alarmed!…

The markets' response to the election outcome, combined with Thursday's Fed rate cut: Markets love it, but half the country (metro areas) are not happy. Avoid knee-jerk responses; next year could be very different. What to do with Bonds: Know what your goal is. Rich & Danny discuss home-bias investing vs international markets: Where're you gonna go…

In the aftermath of the 2024 Election, attention now turns to today's Fed announcement, with odds makers giving 96% chance of a quarter-percent rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are roiling as foreign investors try to position after the election. Managers are scrambling to re-risk in time for year-end reporting; Wednesday was a huge day for Small Caps. …

The 2024 Election outcome is sharply affecting pre-market, with Donald Trump's election sending stocks higher. The S&P trendline is aiming for the 6000 or 6100 level. The question that remains is whether markets can sustain that trend. This time is different from the previous Trump win: Interest rates are falling and tax rates are lower now; yet, t…

Will the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes...until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin' on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally.Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It's hard to buy when it's unpopu…

It's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased In…

2024 isn’t over yet. So here are 10 smart money moves to make right now.Saving money should be a year-round endeavor, but life gets in the way just like anything else. So with 2024 coming to a swift, thankful end, take advantage of the fourth quarter to accelerate your financial acumen, bolster your balance sheet and successfully springboard into t…

Earnings Season continues as October ends: Microsoft and Meta reports reveal lowered expectations for 2025; Microstrategy is raising stakes on Bitcoin w $42-B buy: Will prove to be either brilliant or disastrous (only 6% of Bitcoin owners are active users); Apple & Amazon results will reveal more about consumer spending. Can famed investors Paul Tu…

Halloween preview & earnings parade; pre-election bond market auction action. Markets are hedging a bit ahead of elections. The latest JOLTS report was weaker than expected - more evidence of a slowing economy? Meanwhile, consumer confidence continues to confound, bouncing up in the latest Conference Board Confidence Index reading, especially for f…