2021.12.27 國際新聞導讀-北約向俄羅斯提議1月7日會談、馬利政府邀請俄國傭兵瓦格納進入引發歐洲國家憂慮、俄國土耳其干預非洲、俄軍自烏克蘭邊界撤1萬人、伊朗無人機技術發展迅速引發憂慮、伊朗駐葉門大使死亡引發猜測

蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.12.27 國際新聞導讀-北約向俄羅斯提議1月7日會談、馬利政府邀請俄國傭兵瓦格納進入引發歐洲國家憂慮、俄國土耳其干預非洲、俄軍自烏克蘭邊界撤1萬人、伊朗無人機技術發展迅速引發憂慮、伊朗駐葉門大使死亡引發猜測

莫斯科正在考慮北約提議於1月12日舉行會談

俄羅斯公佈了一份安全提案願望清單。雖然拜登政府表示其中一些提議顯然是不可接受的，但華盛頓會以更具體的想法來回應。

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2021 年 7 月 25 日，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 出席在俄羅斯聖彼得堡舉行的海軍日閱兵式。

（圖片來源：人造衛星/阿列克謝·尼科爾斯基/克里姆林宮）

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塔斯社週日援引外交部的話說，俄羅斯已收到北約提議，將於 1 月 12 日開始就莫斯科的安全問題進行談判​​，並正在考慮這一提議。

俄羅斯因在烏克蘭附近集結軍隊而讓西方感到不安，上周公布了一份希望談判的安全提案願望清單，其中包括承諾北約將放棄在東歐和烏克蘭的任何軍事活動。

塔斯社援引外交部的話說：“我們已經收到了（北約）的這個提議，我們正在考慮。”

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美國和烏克蘭表示，俄羅斯可能正在準備入侵其前蘇聯鄰國。俄羅斯否認這一點，並表示是烏克蘭與北約日益密切的關係導致對峙升級。它將其與 1962 年古巴導彈危機進行了比較，當時世界已瀕臨核戰爭邊緣。

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京周四表示，俄羅斯希望避免衝突，但需要美國及其盟國對其安全保障要求“立即”做出回應。莫斯科曾表示，預計將於 1 月在日內瓦開始與美國官員就此問題進行會談。

2021 年 12 月 7 日，在美國華盛頓白宮戰情室的安全視頻通話中，美國總統喬·拜登與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京在西方擔心莫斯科計劃襲擊烏克蘭的情況下進行了虛擬會談。（圖片來源：The White眾議院/通過路透社講義）

美國總統喬拜登政府曾表示，俄羅斯的一些安全提議顯然是不可接受的，但華盛頓將對任何會談的形式提出更具體的想法。

在接受哥倫比亞廣播公司“面對國家”電視節目採訪時，副總統卡馬拉哈里斯表示，華盛頓一直在與莫斯科就這個問題進行直接對話，並重申美國對烏克蘭領土完整的承諾。

哈里斯說：“我們非常清楚，我們準備發布你們從未見過的製裁措施，”但拒絕詳細說明製裁的具體細節。

美國、歐盟和七國集團都警告普京，如果俄羅斯有任何新的侵略，他將面臨“巨大的後果”，包括嚴厲的經濟制裁。

克里姆林宮的要求包含一些元素——例如俄羅斯對烏克蘭未來加入北約的有效否決權——西方已經排除了這些因素。

另一些則暗示美國從歐洲撤出核武器，並從波蘭和曾經屬於蘇聯的波羅的海國家愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛撤出北約多國營。

拜登政府一名官員周五在與記者的電話中表示，華盛頓已經註意到莫斯科提出的擔憂，並準備最早於 1 月初與俄羅斯接觸，但具體日期和地點尚未確定。

Moscow is considering NATO proposal to hold talks on January 12

Russia has unveiled a wish list of security proposals. While the Biden administration says some of the proposals are obviously unacceptable, Washington will respond with more concrete ideas.

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 26, 2021 19:46

Updated: DECEMBER 26, 2021 20:28

Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends the Navy Day parade in Saint Petersburg, Russia July 25, 2021.

(photo credit: SPUTNIK/ALEXEI NIKOLSKY/KREMLIN)

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Russia has received a NATO proposal to commence talks on Moscow's security concerns on Jan. 12 and is considering it, TASS news agency quoted the Foreign Ministry as saying on Sunday.

Russia, which has unnerved the West with a troop buildup near Ukraine, last week unveiled a wish list of security proposals it wants to negotiate, including a promise NATO would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine .

"We have already received this (NATO) offer, and we are considering it," TASS quoted the foreign ministry as saying.

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The United States and Ukraine say Russia may be preparing an invasion of its ex-Soviet neighbor. Russia denies that and says it is Ukraine's growing relationship with NATO that has caused the standoff to escalate. It has compared it to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the world came to the brink of nuclear war.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia wanted to avoid conflict but needed an "immediate" response from the United States and its allies to its demands for security guarantees. Moscow has said it expects talks with US officials on the subject to start in January in Geneva.

U.S. President Joe Biden holds virtual talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin amid Western fears that Moscow plans to attack Ukraine, during a secure video call from the Situation Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., December 7, 2021. (credit: The White House/Handout via REUTERS)

US President Joe Biden's administration has said some of Russia's security proposals are obviously unacceptable, but that Washington will respond with more concrete ideas on the format of any talks.

In an interview on CBS' "Face The Nation" television show, Vice President Kamala Harris said Washington has been in direct conversations with Moscow about the issue and reiterated the US commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity.

"We've been very clear that we are prepared to issue sanctions like you've not seen before," Harris said, but declined to elaborate on the specifics of the sanctions.

The United States, the European Union and the Group of Seven have all warned Putin that he will face "massive consequences" including tough economic sanctions in the event of any new Russian aggression.

The Kremlin's demands contain elements - such as an effective Russian veto on future NATO membership for Ukraine - that the West has already ruled out.

Others would imply the removal of US nuclear weapons from Europe and the withdrawal of multinational NATO battalions from Poland and from the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that were once in the Soviet Union.

A Biden administration official in a call with reporters on Friday said Washington has taken note of the concerns that Moscow has raised and was ready to engage with Russia as soon as early January but a specific date and location were yet to be set.

俄羅斯和土耳其在非洲的作用受到關注

在非洲的行動正日益成為莫斯科與西方之間更廣泛緊張局勢的一部分。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 26 日 13:18

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京於 2021 年 12 月 21 日在俄羅斯莫斯科舉行的國防部委員會擴大會議上發表講話。

（圖片來源：SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL TERESHCHENKO/POOL VIA REUTERS）

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上周有關俄羅斯可能向馬里派遣承包商的報導引起了歐洲和西方的關注，因為美國和俄羅斯在烏克蘭問題上的緊張局勢正在加劇。這也是俄羅斯與西方之間更廣泛緊張局勢的一部分。

俄羅斯和土耳其以及中國在國外扮演著越來越重要的角色。這包括土耳其、伊朗和其他國家向埃塞俄比亞出售無人機。它包括土耳其在索馬里以及馬里和中非共和國的角色，有時作為聯合國維和人員。俄羅斯和土耳其也在利比亞發揮作用。

與此同時，俄羅斯被西方國家指責向馬里派遣私人軍事承包商。俄羅斯否認了這些報導。這對俄羅斯很重要。莫斯科的塔斯社媒體稱，“馬里政府在一份聲明中駁斥了加拿大和一些歐洲國家關於在該國部署私人軍事公司（PMC）的指控。”

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根據這種說法，馬里政府“正式拒絕這些毫無根據的指控，並要求獨立來源提供證據”。馬里政府指出，它“僅參與與其歷史夥伴俄羅斯聯邦的國家間夥伴關係”，並要求“以行動而非謠言來判斷”。塔斯說，聲明中沒有提到“瓦格納”PMC。“9月25日，俄羅斯外長透露，馬里聯繫了一家俄羅斯私人軍事承包商，要求其協助打擊恐怖主義，並補充說莫斯科沒有參與這筆交易。”

那麼，馬里和非洲薩赫勒地區正在發生什麼？

2021 年 8 月 31 日，馬里，15 歲的 Aliou 被馬里北部的武裝團體招募，並在他們那裡度過了三年，直到聯合國兒童基金會及其合作夥伴幫助他離開。

俄羅斯可以在這方面發揮更大的作用，但法國和其他歐洲國家已經發揮了作用。這些有時是前殖民地，歐洲國家希望保持其影響力。

然而，極端主義團體在尼日利亞和許多國家都有增長。這些國家現在越來越多地向中國尋求金融交易，並可能向俄羅斯或土耳其或其他國家尋求可能意味著顧問或承包商的軍事交易。

這是因為美國正在非洲各地撤軍。2017年，有四名美國人員在尼日爾遇難。但如今，美國希望減少其在尼日爾或索馬里等地的作用。真空將意味著俄羅斯、土耳其、中國甚至伊朗介入。

事實上，媒體報導認為，法國無法阻止薩赫勒地區、馬里等地的聖戰威脅，將為俄羅斯打開大門。歐洲國家正在協調有關這一發展的有關聲明。

例如，捷克共和國外交部寫道，“捷克共和國與合作夥伴一起，對馬里決定邀請俄羅斯瓦格納集團的僱傭軍進入其領土而俄羅斯參與其部署深表遺憾。”

這裡重要的是，這是否是西方國家和美國正在減少其在非洲和中東等地區的足跡和作用的更廣泛趨勢的一部分，以及最終結果是否會更多地由俄羅斯、土耳其和中國發揮作用和別的。

這些國家是否會在這些國家發生影響或協調，還有待觀察。具有像徵意義的是，這種緩慢移動的轉變越來越成為莫斯科與西方之間更廣泛緊張局勢的一部分。

Russia and Turkey’s role in Africa gains spotlight

Action in Africa is increasingly becoming part of the broader tensions between Moscow and the West.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Published: DECEMBER 26, 2021 13:18

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during an expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow, Russia, December 21, 2021.

(photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL TERESHCHENKO/POOL VIA REUTERS)

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Over the last week reports that Russia might send contractors to Mali have raised eyebrows in Europe and the West, as the US and Russia are in rising tensions over Ukraine. It is also part of the wider tensions between Russia and the West.

Russia and Turkey, as well as China, have increasingly been playing a more muscular role abroad. That includes drone sales by Turkey, Iran and other countries to Ethiopia. It includes a role by Turkey in Somalia as well as Mali and the Central African Republic, sometimes as UN peacekeepers. Russia and Turkey play a role in Libya as well.

Meanwhile, Russia was accused by Western countries of sending private military contractors to Mali. Russia has denied the reports. This matters to Russia. TASS media in Moscow says “the government of Mali debunked the accusations made by Canada and a number of European countries about the alleged deployment of a private military corporation (PMC) in the country in a statement.”

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According to this narrative, the government of Mali "officially rejects these groundless accusations and demands proof from independent sources." The government of Mali noted that it "participates only in an inter-state partnership with the Russian Federation, its historic partner," asking to "judge it by actions, not rumors." The "Wagner" PMC is not mentioned in the statement, Tass says. "On September 25, the Russian Foreign Minister disclosed that Mali contacted a Russian private military contractor for aid in combating terrorism, adding that Moscow is not involved in this deal."

So what is happening in Mali and the Sahel in Africa?

Aliou, 15, who was recruited by armed groups in northern Mali and spent three years with them until UNICEF and its partners helped him leave, is pictured at a workshop, in Mali August 31, 2021 (credit: VIA REUTERS)

Russia could play a larger role in this area, but France and other European countries already play a role. These are sometimes former colonies and the European countries want to maintain their influence.

However, extremist groups have been growing in Nigeria and across a swath of countries. These countries are now looking increasingly to China for financial deals and possibly to Russia or Turkey or other countries for military deals that could mean advisers or contractors.

This comes as the US is drawing down in places across Africa. In 2017, four US personnel were killed in Niger. But these days, the US wants to reduce its role in places like Niger or Somalia. The vacuum will mean Russia, Turkey, China and even Iran step in.

In fact, media reports argue that France’s inability to stop jihadist threats across the Sahel, in places like Mali, will open the door to Russia. European countries are coordinating concerned Statements about this development.

Czech Republic’s Foreign Ministry, for instance, wrote “together with partners, the Czech Republic deeply regrets Mali's decision to invite mercenary troops of the Russian Wagner Group to its territory, with Russia participating in their deployment.”

What matters here is whether this is part of the broader trend whereby Western countries and the US are reducing their footprint and role in areas such as Africa and the Middle East and whether the end result will be more of a role for Russia, Turkey, China and others.

Whether those countries will clash over influence or coordinate in these countries remains to be seen. What is symbolic is how this slow-moving shift is increasingly part of the broader tensions between Moscow and the West.

10,000名俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭附近演習後返回基地

俄羅斯在烏克蘭附近部署了數万名士兵，這加劇了西方對莫斯科計劃發動襲擊的擔憂。

通過路透

發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 25 日 10:34

2021 年 9 月 8 日，在烏克蘭頓巴斯地區解放 78 週年之際，在最近與烏克蘭政府軍的戰鬥中受損的戰爭紀念館 Savur-Mohyla 舉行集會期間，一名激進分子高舉俄羅斯國旗。

（圖片來源：路透社/亞歷山大·埃爾莫琴科）

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國際文傳電訊社週六援引俄羅斯軍方的話報導稱，在烏克蘭附近進行了為期一個月的演習後，超過 10,000 名俄羅斯軍隊已返回其永久基地。

國際文傳電訊社表示，演習在烏克蘭附近的幾個地區舉行，包括俄羅斯於 2014 年吞併的克里米亞，以及俄羅斯南部的羅斯托夫和庫班地區。

俄羅斯在烏克蘭北部、東部和南部部署了數万名士兵，這加劇了基輔和西方國家首都的擔憂，即莫斯科正計劃發動襲擊。

俄羅斯否認任何此類計劃，稱它需要西方的承諾——包括北約承諾不將聯盟向東擴展到俄羅斯邊境——因為烏克蘭與西方聯盟日益密切的關係威脅到了俄羅斯自身的安全。

莫斯科還表示，它可以在其認為合適的情況下在其領土上部署軍隊。

上週，俄羅斯武裝部隊的一名手榴彈發射器操作員在靠近烏克蘭的俄羅斯羅斯托夫地區參加了戰鬥演習。（來源：SERGEY PIVOVAROV/REUTERS）

對最近靠近烏克蘭的俄羅斯軍隊人數的估計從 60,000 人到 90,000 人不等，一份美國情報文件表明這一數字可能高達 175,000 人。

“師、戰鬥隊、機動部隊班的戰鬥協調階段……已經完成。10,000多名軍人……將從合成兵種演習區的領土上走向他們的永久部署，”國際文傳電訊社援引軍方的話說。

10,000 Russian troops return to bases after drills near Ukraine

Russia's deployment of tens of thousands of troops near Ukraine had fueled fears in the West that Moscow was planning an attack.

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 25, 2021 10:34

An activist holds Russia's national flag, during a rally at the war memorial complex Savur-Mohyla, damaged in the recent fighting with Ukraine's government forces,marking the 78th anniversary of the liberation of the Donbas region,Ukraine September 8, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO)

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More than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to their permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported on Saturday, citing the Russian military.

Interfax said the drills were held in several regions near Ukraine, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as well as in the southern Russian regions of Rostov and Kuban.

Russia's deployment of tens of thousands of troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine had fueled fears in Kyiv and Western capitals that Moscow was planning an attack.

Russia denies any such plans, saying it needs pledges from the West - including a promise from NATO not to expand the alliance eastward towards Russian borders - because its own security is threatened by Ukraine's growing ties with the Western alliance.

Moscow also says that it can deploy its troops on its territory as it sees fit.

A grenade launcher operator of the Russian armed forces takes part in combat drills last week in the Rostov region of Russia near Ukraine. (credit: SERGEY PIVOVAROV/REUTERS)

Estimates for the number of Russian troops recently moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000 to 90,000, with one US intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up as high as 175,000.

"A stage of combat coordination of divisions, combat crews, squads at motorized units… has been completed. More than 10,000 military servicemen… will march to their permanent deployment from the territory of the combined arms' area of drills," Interfax quoted the army as saying.

拜登因擔心強迫勞動而禁止從新疆進口

該法案於 12 月 16 日獲得國會的最終批准，是華盛頓反對北京對待中國維吾爾穆斯林少數民族的一部分。

通過路透

發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 23 日 17:51

更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 23 日 18:57

2021 年 5 月 4 日，中國新疆維吾爾自治區喀什市的一座中國寶塔俯瞰老城。

（圖片來源：路透社/托馬斯·彼得）

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白宮表示，美國總統喬拜登週四簽署了法律，禁止從中國新疆地區進口，因為擔心強迫勞動。

該法案於 12 月 16 日獲得國會的最終批准，是華盛頓抵制北京對待中國維吾爾穆斯林少數民族的一部分。

在立法者就一項消除眾議院和參議院提出的法案之間的分歧的妥協達成一致後，國會本月推動了這項措施。

根據美國國家地理空間情報局和澳大利亞政府附屬的澳大利亞戰略政策研究所收集的數據繪製的新疆拘留營地圖。（來源：國家地理空間情報局/公共領域/VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS）

妥協立法保留了一項規定，創造了一個“可反駁的推定”，即中國政府為維吾爾人和其他穆斯林團體建立了一個拘留營網絡的新疆的所有貨物都是強迫勞動的，以禁止此類進口。

中國否認在新疆存在侵權行為，該地區為世界上大部分太陽能電池板提供材料，但美國政府和許多人權組織表示，北京正在那裡進行種族滅絕。

Biden bans imports from Xinjiang over forced labor concerns

The bill, which received final congressional approval on Dec. 16, is part of Washington's pushback against Beijing's treatment of China's Uyghur Muslim minority.

By REUTERS

Published: DECEMBER 23, 2021 17:51

Updated: DECEMBER 23, 2021 18:57

A Chinese pagoda overlooks the old city in Kashgar, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, May 4, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/THOMAS PETER)

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US President Joe Biden on Thursday signed into law legislation that bans imports from China's Xinjiang region over concerns about forced labor, the White House said.

The bill, which received final congressional approval on Dec. 16, is part of Washington's pushback against Beijing's treatment of China's Uyghur Muslim minority.

Congress pushed through the measure this month after lawmakers agreed on a compromise that eliminated differences between bills introduced in the House and Senate.

Map of the Xinjiang Internment Camps based on data collected by the US National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the Australian government affiliated Australian Strategic Policy Institute. (credit: NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY/PUBLIC DOMAIN/VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)

The compromise legislation keeps a provision creating a "rebuttable presumption" that all goods from Xinjiang, where the Chinese government has set up a network of detention camps for Uyghurs and other Muslim groups, were made with forced labor, in order to bar such imports.

China denies abuses in Xinjiang, which supplies much of the world's materials for solar panels, but the US government and many rights groups say Beijing is carrying out genocide there.

The bizarre life and death of Iran’s ‘ambassador’ to Yemen’s Houthis

A recently dead man named Hasan Irloo was lauded by Iran's Supreme Leader as being a 'martyr' and a 'productive ambassador of Iran to Yemen.' Who was this mysterious person and why does it matter?

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Published: DECEMBER 26, 2021 15:47

Houthi supporters shout slogans during a rally against the United States' designation of Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization, in Sanaa, Yemen January 25, 2021

(photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)

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On December 22 Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, wrote about “the martyrdom-like death of the hardworking, productive Ambassador of #Iran to Yemen, Hasan Irloo.” He said he offered “condolences and congratulations to his family and diligent, like-minded people. His honorable record includes much political work, diplomatic efforts and social activities.”

Irloo’s death has led to some controversy because it is unclear how he died and it has shed light on Iran’s commitment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis have been increasingly backed by Iran since 2015. They have received weapons, including ballistic missile and drone technology, from Iran. They have struck frequently at Saudi Arabia and also threaten US and Saudi partners and allies. In the last several years the Houthis have also increasingly threatened Israel and been working with other Iranian proxies and allies such as Hezbollah. The Houthis official slogan includes threats and curses to Jews and Israel. The US briefly declared the Houthis a terrorist group. In 2015 Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab countries to intervene in Yemen to stop the Houthis taking Aden. That war has ground on for years. Yemen has suffered greatly.

Back on December 17, the Wall Street Journal reported that Irloo was being pushed out of Yemen at the behest of the Houthis due to supposed tensions between the Houthis and Iran. A western official and some other source from the region apparently confirmed this. This came after mid-November reports that an IRGC commander in Syria had also been asked to leave by the Assad regime. This came as the Assad regime had welcomed the UAE and there was talk of more Arab states normalizing with Syria. Syria is backed by Iran. The two reports seemed to show Iran was suffering setbacks among key countries that it has tried to turn into bases for proxies.

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However, reports in Israel on December 18 appeared to refute the Wall Street Journal article. Iran claimed Irloo had Covid and was being evacuated for health reasons. Khaleej times in the UAE reported on December 18 that “the [Iran] Foreign Ministry said on its website that Ambassador Hassan Irloo was in need of urgent medical care after being infected for several days, and was en route to Iran.” So was it strains with the Houthis or health? Was Covid a cover story? What really happened.

Meanwhile a further controversy erupted after Iran said regional countries were slow to help the evacuation of the official. Saudi Arabi denied it had slowed the evacuation. “It had facilitated the evacuation on humanitarian grounds, and in recognition of the diplomatic mediation by Oman and #Iraq in less than 48 hours of reporting (Irloo’s) health condition,” the spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition said.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a virtual speech, on the occasion of the Prophet Mohammad's birthday, in Tehran, Iran November 3, 2020. (credit: OFFICIAL KHAMENEI WEBSITE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

According to Al-Jazeera in Qatar, “Irloo, 63, was named last year as Iran’s ambassador to the areas of the war-torn country controlled by the Houthi rebels. He was flown out of Sanaa on an Iraqi flight after his hosts secured authorization from the Saudi-led coalition, which has enforced an air and sea blockade on rebel-held territory since August 2016.”

The story of the flight to Iraq appears to add more details. This was a rare flight and shows how important Irloo was to Iran. It also reveals that Saudi Arabia was flexible in halting its air blockade of Yemen. Nevertheless pro-Iran social media claimed the delay had cost Irloo his life. They noted his long background, having fought in the Iran-Iraq and survived chemical weapons attacks.

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The story of him having Covid and the Houthis asking him to leave doesn’t seem to add up. If they asked him to leave the Saudis might have helped facilitate that because they didn’t want a high-level official there anyway. But if he had Covid then why would the Houthis also ask him to leave? How can Saudi Arabia be to blame for a slow evacuation if it wasn’t Covid?

This led to the third round of stories about Irloo. According to the Resistance Axis Monitor, Irloo was described as an IRGC Quds Force member who had also been appointed as Iran’s ambassador to the Houthis. “There are some reports he was injured in a Saudi strike in Yemen.” Then Iran’s state media IRNA reported that Irloo (sometimes spelled Irlu) was also living under the code name “commander Shahlai” and was a Quds force member who had a $15 million bounty on his head from the US. “Shahlai played a key role in organizing Iraqi insurgents against Coalition forces during Iraq War.” Adam Rawnsley, reporter at The Daily Beast, noted “it’s public but don't often see people connecting the two: Shahlai (aka Irloo) was also the Qods Force commander who allegedly orchestrated the plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in DC. His cousin, Manssor Arbabsiar, is in federal prison for it.”

According to Joel Rayburn, a Fellow at the New America Foundation and former US Special Envoy for Syria “Iranian state media today admitted and then quickly deleted the amazing admission that Iranian Amb to Yemen Irloo is same person as IRGC commander Shahlai, who smuggled EFPs into Iraq, plotted with his American cousin to kill Saudi Amb Jubeir at Cafe Milano, and fired missiles at Riyadh.” Explosively Formed Penetrators or EFPs were used to kill US forces after the 2003 invasion. Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force leader, was known to be responsible for moving EFPs into Iraq. The US killed Soleimani in January 2020.

Back in December 2020 the US had sanctioned Irloo. “Treasury Sanctions Iran’s Envoy in Yemen and University Facilitating Recruitment for Qods Force.” According to this report Hasan Irloo had “supported IRGC-QF efforts to provide advanced weapons and training to the Houthis. He coordinated with other senior IRGC-QF leaders to support the group’s operations throughout the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen. Irlu [sic] maintained a relationship with former IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani. He has also provided training to Hizballah members in Iran.”

The differing reports don’t add up to a conclusive story about Irloo. Clearly he was a high-level official in Iran and he was more than a diplomat. As an IRGC Quds Force commander, his appointment was an envoy and it likely exceeded any normal notion of diplomatic capacity. In this role he threatened Saudi Arabia. If he was wounded in an airstrike and then the Houthis wanted to send a wounded Irloo back it is strange that Riyadh would facilitate the transfer. However, it could be that pressure was brought based on Iranian threats. If Iran held Riyadh responsible for wounding him, the quid-pro-quo could be that Riyadh enable his transfer and that this could reduce tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi apparently brokered this flight, and reports say that Iraq has hosted Saudi-Iran talks over the past year.

The reports about Houthi tensions with Iran leading to his departure seem strange, considering he then died days later. If he died of Covid or an wounding in an airstrike, it doesn’t stand to reason that the Houthis happened to also want him to leave and that he just coincidentally got wounded. It is possible the Covid story was a cover for some other form of “martyrdom.” The fact that Iran media appeared to admit he was a Quds force commander with a code name and then removed the report shows how Iran believes this is sensitive information. If he was in fact primarily a military advisor to the Houthis and then got Covid or died from wounds in battle, it still is extraordinary Riyadh facilitated this considering his role in targeting Saudi Arabia over the years. His previous role fighting Iraq and sending EFPs to Iraq make it interesting that Iraq helped him leave as well.

Iran went to some lengths to show that the man had Covid. Iran published a photo of Irloo in a hospital bed. The graphic photo was published to disabuse rumors. Because everything in the region tends to be seen as conspiracies, one rumor has said Iran’s admission that he was also commander Shahlai was put out to confuse those seeking Shahlai. Either way, the loss of Irloo is important for Iran. It is a setback both for Iran’s diplomatic efforts and IRGC efforts in Yemen. It is yet another high ranking official to pass away after Soleimani and others. If it’s true that Irloo was also Shahlai that is a loss for Iran and helps resolve a search for this dangerous Iranian commander.

伊朗的新型無人機群 Shahed-136 技術是否會改變遊戲規則？- 分析

這些類型的無人機直接飛入目標並自毀，伊朗似乎已經獲得了它。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 26 日 12:08

更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 26 日 17:48

在伊朗舉行的第 17 屆偉大先知演習中，伊朗導彈和無人機測試發生爆炸。

（圖片來源：Ali Yeghane Lari / More News Agency）

廣告

過去幾天，伊朗新型無人機發射器的圖片出現在網上和伊朗媒體上。這些被稱為 Shahed-136 的無人機在伊朗上週舉行的一次演習中與導彈結合使用。

伊朗在演習中發射遠程導彈向以色列發出警告（圖片來源：WANA via Reuters）。

伊朗稱這些類型的無人機為“自殺式無人機”或神風無人機。這意味著它們會飛向目標並自毀。

這些類型的無人機之前已經提到過，但沒有以如此特寫的細節展示。

1 月，湯姆·奧康納 (Tom O'Connor) 在《新聞周刊》(Newsweek) 上寫道：“《新聞周刊》看到並由一名跟踪伊朗在該地區活動的專家證實的圖像表明，存在伊朗 Shahed-136 遊蕩彈藥，也稱為‘自殺無人機’，部署在北部也門的 Al-Jawf 省，該國的一個地區由安薩爾阿拉或胡塞、扎伊迪什葉派穆斯林反叛運動控制。”

這是此類無人機首次在海外部署中被提及。在此之前，伊朗已經建造了神風無人機，但在公開軍事演習中從未見過這種特定類型的無人機。

伊朗 Shahed 129 無人機（圖片來源：MILITARYEDGE.ORG）

根據德黑蘭的國營和半官方媒體，我們現在知道 Shahed-136 的存在，它不僅是一種神風無人機，而且伊朗已經創造了一種以多次發射或無人機的方式發射無人機的新方法。蜂擁而至，格式。

無人機群是一種新技術，可使用多架無人機打擊目標。這可能會壓倒防空系統和/或造成嚴重破壞。過去，像美國捕食者這樣的無人機通常不會與其他無人機一起使用。

此外，無人機並不經常被用於進入有爭議的領空，例如以色列或沙特阿拉伯的防禦嚴密的領空。這是因為直到最近，無人機技術主要由美國、以色列和其他幾個國家主導。伊朗、中國和其他無人機大國現已加入遊戲。

伊朗在神風無人機技術上投入了大量資金，包括也門的 Qasef 和哈馬斯的 Shehab 無人機類型。這些都是基於伊朗的技術和模型。阿爾瑪研究中心最近的報告稱，真主黨可能擁有大約 2,000 架無人機——其中許多是基於伊朗型號的。

伊朗在最近的演習中推出的新發射器似乎有五層或機架，可以在發射前安裝無人機。發射器可以安裝在卡車的後面，所以它可以偽裝成貨運，看起來像任何其他在道路上行駛的商用卡車。

親伊朗團體以前在伊拉克這樣做過，他們在那里安裝了 107-mm。或 122 毫米。卡車後面的火箭。在一個記錄在案的案例中，他們將火箭偽裝在一輛普通商用卡車的床底下，向位於伊拉克的美國設施發射火箭。2020 年 9 月，伊朗將火箭放入一個集裝箱內進行藏匿。

伊朗為其 Shahed-136 的新發射器表面上使其不僅能夠隱藏它們，而且能夠在這些類型的改裝卡車中放置五架無人機。可以想像，它可以以一種“群”的形式向目標發射數十架這樣的無人機。

儘管沒有證據表明無人機可以相互通信，或者它們具有西方存在的那種先進的人工智能集群能力，但這並不意味著它們不會構成威脅。帶有秘密無人機隔間的卡車可用於打擊易受攻擊的目標或用於探測防空系統。

伊朗於 2019 年在沙特阿拉伯做到了這一點，使用無人機和巡航導彈襲擊了沙特阿美石油設施 Abqaiq。儘管有雷達和防空系統，沙特人並沒有阻止無人機。

伊朗自那時以來的進步顯然對整個地區構成了更大的威脅。根據圖像，Shahed-136 並不是一架非常大的無人機，它包含一個彈頭，使其成為一種具有潛在危險的武器，並且由於其尺寸和雷達截面小，可能不容易被發現。

伊朗對 Shahed-136 的創新不一定是新的。它的無人機設計基於其他國家使用的現有遊蕩彈藥。此外，它並不是第一個想出多無人機發射系統想法的國家。

阿塞拜疆於 2018 年 4 月發布了一段音樂視頻，其中包括一輛卡車，後面有一個發射器，有 12 個門可供無人機飛出。根據當時的報導，該視頻顯示了以色列航空航天工業公司製造的 Harop 無人機，這是一種遊蕩彈藥。阿塞拜疆官員在 2020 年 9 月稱讚了這架無人機，據以色列海姆報導，2020 年 10 月，亞美尼亞的一份報告稱一架 Harop 在伊朗墜毀。

“亞美尼亞統一信息中心報告說，這架飛機是一架以色列製造的 IAI Harop kamikaze 無人機，從阿塞拜疆飛往伊朗領土，被伊朗軍隊擊落，或在阿爾達比勒墜毀，距離亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆軍隊在納戈爾諾的戰鬥不遠-卡拉巴赫地區，”報告說。

目前尚不清楚伊朗是否在 2020 年使用 Harop 作為模型並將其發射器基於 Azeri 系統。伊朗的發射系統在定位和方法上有所不同。但是，總體概念是相同的。這個概念是讓部隊能夠同時發射多架無人機。

新聞周刊今年 1 月的報導稱，Shahed-136 的射程約為 2,000 公里。對於這種小型無人機來說，這是一個很長的射程，但如果伊朗在其技術上取得進步，這可能是可能的。

它似乎不太可能達到這個範圍，但這些報導似乎與伊朗將這架無人機送往也門胡塞武裝的說法相吻合。一個 2,000 公里。也門周圍的半徑意味著無人機可以到達以色列南部的埃拉特或威脅阿曼灣的航運。

德黑蘭現在展示的那種無人機群的威脅正在上升。伊朗之前曾對此進行過試驗，但其新發射器和新無人機的威脅似乎比 2019 年更為嚴重。

如果伊朗將這些系統運往伊拉克、敘利亞、黎巴嫩或也門，並使用其建造的多種發射器類型，這將在未來與以色列的任何衝突中構成新的威脅。

這些類型的無人機直接飛入目標並自毀，伊朗似乎已經獲得了它。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

發佈時間： 2021 年 12 月 26 日 12:08

更新時間： 2021 年 12 月 26 日 17:48

在伊朗舉行的第 17 屆偉大先知演習中，伊朗導彈和無人機測試發生爆炸。

（圖片來源：Ali Yeghane Lari/Mehr News Agency）

廣告

過去幾天，伊朗新型無人機發射器的圖片出現在網上和伊朗媒體上。這些被稱為 Shahed-136 的無人機在伊朗上週舉行的一次演習中與導彈結合使用。

伊朗在演習中發射遠程導彈向以色列發出警告（圖片來源：WANA via Reuters）。

伊朗稱這些類型的無人機為“自殺式無人機”或神風無人機。這意味著它們會飛向目標並自毀。

這些類型的無人機之前已經提到過，但沒有以如此特寫的細節展示。

1 月，湯姆·奧康納 (Tom O'Connor) 在《新聞周刊》(Newsweek) 上寫道：“《新聞周刊》看到並由一名跟踪伊朗在該地區活動的專家證實的圖像表明，存在伊朗 Shahed-136 遊蕩彈藥，也稱為‘自殺無人機’，部署在北部也門的 Al-Jawf 省，該國的一個地區由安薩爾阿拉或胡塞、扎伊迪什葉派穆斯林反叛運動控制。”

這是此類無人機首次在海外部署中被提及。在此之前，伊朗已經建造了神風無人機，但在公開軍事演習中從未見過這種特定類型的無人機。

伊朗 Shahed 129 無人機（圖片來源：MILITARYEDGE.ORG）

根據德黑蘭的國營和半官方媒體，我們現在知道 Shahed-136 的存在，它不僅是一種神風無人機，而且伊朗已經創造了一種以多次發射或無人機的方式發射無人機的新方法。蜂擁而至，格式。

無人機群是一種新技術，可使用多架無人機打擊目標。這可能會壓倒防空系統和/或造成嚴重破壞。過去，像美國捕食者這樣的無人機通常不會與其他無人機一起使用。

此外，無人機並不經常被用於進入有爭議的領空，例如以色列或沙特阿拉伯的防禦嚴密的領空。這是因為直到最近，無人機技術主要由美國、以色列和其他幾個國家主導。伊朗、中國和其他無人機大國現已加入遊戲。

伊朗在神風無人機技術上投入了大量資金，包括也門的 Qasef 和哈馬斯的 Shehab 無人機類型。這些都是基於伊朗的技術和模型。阿爾瑪研究中心最近的報告稱，真主黨可能擁有大約 2,000 架無人機——其中許多是基於伊朗型號的。

伊朗在最近的演習中推出的新發射器似乎有五層或機架，可以在發射前安裝無人機。發射器可以安裝在卡車的後面，所以它可以偽裝成貨運，看起來像任何其他在道路上行駛的商用卡車。

親伊朗團體以前在伊拉克這樣做過，他們在那里安裝了 107-mm。或 122 毫米。卡車後面的火箭。在一個記錄在案的案例中，他們將火箭偽裝在一輛普通商用卡車的床底下，向位於伊拉克的美國設施發射火箭。2020 年 9 月，伊朗將火箭放入一個集裝箱內進行藏匿。

伊朗為其 Shahed-136 的新發射器表面上使其不僅能夠隱藏它們，而且能夠在這些類型的改裝卡車中放置五架無人機。可以想像，它可以以一種“群”的形式向目標發射數十架這樣的無人機。

儘管沒有證據表明無人機可以相互通信，或者它們具有西方存在的那種先進的人工智能集群能力，但這並不意味著它們不會構成威脅。帶有秘密無人機隔間的卡車可用於打擊易受攻擊的目標或用於探測防空系統。

伊朗於 2019 年在沙特阿拉伯做到了這一點，使用無人機和巡航導彈襲擊了沙特阿美石油設施 Abqaiq。儘管有雷達和防空系統，沙特人並沒有阻止無人機。

伊朗自那時以來的進步顯然對整個地區構成了更大的威脅。根據圖像，Shahed-136 並不是一架非常大的無人機，它包含一個彈頭，使其成為一種具有潛在危險的武器，並且由於其尺寸和雷達截面小，可能不容易被發現。

伊朗對 Shahed-136 的創新不一定是新的。它的無人機設計基於其他國家使用的現有遊蕩彈藥。此外，它並不是第一個想出多無人機發射系統想法的國家。

阿塞拜疆於 2018 年 4 月發布了一段音樂視頻，其中包括一輛卡車，後面有一個發射器，有 12 個門可供無人機飛出。根據當時的報導，該視頻顯示了以色列航空航天工業公司製造的 Harop 無人機，這是一種遊蕩彈藥。阿塞拜疆官員在 2020 年 9 月稱讚了這架無人機，據以色列海姆報導，2020 年 10 月，亞美尼亞的一份報告稱一架 Harop 在伊朗墜毀。

“亞美尼亞統一信息中心報告說，這架飛機是一架以色列製造的 IAI Harop kamikaze 無人機，從阿塞拜疆飛往伊朗領土，被伊朗軍隊擊落，或在阿爾達比勒墜毀，距離亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆軍隊在納戈爾諾的戰鬥不遠-卡拉巴赫地區，”報告說。

目前尚不清楚伊朗是否在 2020 年使用 Harop 作為模型並將其發射器基於 Azeri 系統。伊朗的發射系統在定位和方法上有所不同。但是，總體概念是相同的。這個概念是讓部隊能夠同時發射多架無人機。

新聞周刊今年 1 月的報導稱，Shahed-136 的射程約為 2,000 公里。對於這種小型無人機來說，這是一個很長的射程，但如果伊朗在其技術上取得進步，這可能是可能的。

它似乎不太可能達到這個範圍，但這些報導似乎與伊朗將這架無人機送往也門胡塞武裝的說法相吻合。一個 2,000 公里。也門周圍的半徑意味著無人機可以到達以色列南部的埃拉特或威脅阿曼灣的航運。

德黑蘭現在展示的那種無人機群的威脅正在上升。伊朗之前曾對此進行過試驗，但其新發射器和新無人機的威脅似乎比 2019 年更為嚴重。

如果伊朗將這些系統運往伊拉克、敘利亞、黎巴嫩或也門，並使用其建造的多種發射器類型，這將在未來與以色列的任何衝突中構成新的威脅。