The Wire - September 23, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2200Z September 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIAN ICBM TEST FAILS. ISRAELI BOMBING IN LEBANON CONTINUES. DOJ RELEASES BOUNTY LETTER FROM WOULD-BE TRUMP ASSASSIN.//

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-International Events-

Russia: Over the weekend, a routine ICBM test failed catastrophically in Arkhangelsk Oblast. Satellite imagery confirmed the presence of a large crater at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome indicating that a RS-28 SARMAT (NATO reporting name: SS-30 SATAN II, [likely omitting the “X” experimental designation at this point]) missile exploded in its silo. AC: As this was intended to be a test, no nuclear payload was on the missile. This missile recently entered combat service last year, however this incident is the latest in a string of failures for the platform, echoing the recent American troubles with the Minuteman program.

Lebanon: Israeli targeting continues in the form of airstrikes, with hundreds of sorties being flown over the weekend to strike targets in southern Lebanon. Israeli ground forces continue to maneuver from the southern front in Gaza, to stage in the north (though the exact composition and disposition of these forces remains uncertain at this time). Hezbollah rocket attacks have become more organized, as evidenced by a substantial coordinated rocket attack on Ramat David airbase over the weekend. Similar targeting efforts have been noted in Haifa, marking some of the most significant rocket attacks by Hezbollah since the war began.

More politically, Israel has specifically brought the Litani River into question again, which has served as a United Nations sanctioned demarcation line for Hezbollah operations. AC: It’s very likely that the roughly 300 square miles of territory in southern Lebanon is going to be a source of conflict once again, as historical grievances over the hotly-contested region become inflamed once more. Israeli statements over the past few days have essentially taken the position of “if Hezbollah doesn’t move north of the Litani, we’ll make them”. However, it’s not clear as to if Israel is going to treat this as a true border expansion, or more of a “buffer zone” for Hezbollah. In any case, most United Nations affiliated aid groups are not gambling either way, with many humanitarian groups urging their personnel to immediately evacuate north of the river. Most western nations have also increased their threat levels for travel to Lebanon, and repeated calls for their citizens to leave Lebanon while they still can via commercial means.

-HomeFront-

Ohio: The situation regarding Haitian immigrants in Springfield has continued to deteriorate, amid other complications. Yesterday, Black Israelite demonstrators marched in support of their ideology in Springfield, with several hundred members taking part in demonstrations. AC: Some claims have indicated the Nation of Islam also being active at these events, though the varying factional allegiances among all of these groups is often contradictory and confusing.

Florida: In the pre-trail documents made public this morning, the US Department of Justice released a letter written by the second Trump would-be assassin Ryan Routh. The contents of the letter reference Routh’s failure to assassinate Trump, and offers a $150,000 bounty to any successful assassin.

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Analyst Comments: Many are concerned about the rapid release of this letter, considering that the manifestos of many far-left shooters tend to be concealed from the public for long periods of time (such as the Nashville shooter’s manifesto) allegedly due to the potential to encourage further targeting. Yet in this case, when future targeting of Trump is actively encouraged, and a bounty is even offered, the letter is released to the public immediately. As such, for a governmental department that has been facing numerous allegations of impropriety during an election season, the publis