Trade expectations in the new marketing year | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben talk expectations for U.S. ag exports for the new marketing year.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» December 2024 corn up $.15 at $4.01

» December 2025 corn up $.08 at $4.38

» November 2024 soybeans up $.20 at $10.00

» November 2025 soybeans up $.15 at $10.45

» December soybean oil up 1.24 cents at 41.99 cents/lb

» December soybean meal up $4.90 at $313.10/short ton

» December 2024 wheat up $.27 at $5.52

» July 2025 wheat up $.28 at $5.91

» October cotton down 1.43 cents at 69.15 cents/lb

» December cotton down 0.34 cents at 69.92 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil down $3.59 at $73.83/barrel

Weekly highlights:

US Consumer confidence climbed to a six-month high of 103.3 blowing past expectations of a slight rise to 101.

US stocks of crude oil and gasoline were again down week over week by 36 and 92 million gallons respectively, while distillate stocks were up 12 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back to 315 million gallons- down from 323 million gallons the week prior, but remains above the 285 in 2022 and 296 in 2023. Ethanol stocks were flat on the wek but are 9% higher than the same period last year.

The US ag trade deficit is expected to grow to 42.5 billion dollars up from a revised 30.5 billion dollars in 2024. Exports to China are expected to decline $3 billion to $24 billion. In 2023, China bought nearly $34 billion in US ag products.

For 2023/24 ag export sales there were 600,00 bushels of corn sales and negative soybean sales of 5.3 million bushels. Both were within expectations but soybeans as on the low end. Sales for 2024/25 were 58.8 million bushels of corn, 96.1 million bushels of soybeans and 19.6 million bushels of wheats. All up week over week and above the recent four-week averages.

With the last full week in the 2023/24 corn, milo and soybean marketing year, ag export inspections were bullish on the week. Corn, soybeans, milo and wheat export inspections were all up week over week and toward top end of expectations.

US Crop Conditions:

It was dry in parts of the Corn Belt. Out of 132 total years of data- Northwest Iowa ranked 120 driest. Parts of Western Tennessee were one off from being the driest August in the last 132 years. One of the reasons crop conditions have remained at or above the five-year average is because it the seasonally mild temperatures.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Post-holiday crop market rally

» Review of 2023-2024 exports

» A fresh marketing year look

» Harvest markets

» What to watch

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