CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 42

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

Weekly Global Cocoa Market Summary – October 20, 2024

• Ivory Coast: Despite challenges in the 2023-2024 season due to adverse weather and plant diseases, Ivory Coast remains resilient as the world’s leading cocoa producer. For the 2024-2025 season, the country projects a robust output of around 2 million metric tonnes. However, excessive rainfall continues to pose risks during crucial growth stages. In collaboration with Ghana, Ivory Coast is working to reform cocoa pricing mechanisms to improve farmer incomes, reflecting a proactive approach to maintaining market stability.
• Ghana: Facing difficulties, Ghana’s cocoa production is unlikely to exceed 500,000 tonnes for the 2024-2025 season, impacted heavily by the swollen shoot disease. Additionally, cross-border smuggling of cocoa to countries with stronger currencies remains a major issue. To counter this, the Ghanaian government has intensified measures to curb smuggling, showing a commitment to protecting its cocoa sector.
• Brazil: Regulatory adjustments to ease cocoa exports to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) aim to strengthen trade relations and diversify export markets. This change aligns with Brazil’s broader strategy, which includes staple exports like soybeans and coffee. The regulatory shift is expected to improve Brazilian cocoa’s access to EAEU markets, supporting Brazil’s push to enhance its global trade connections.
• Indonesia: Cocoa-producing regions, particularly Sulawesi and Sumatra, require careful monitoring due to their sensitivity to weather fluctuations, which impact both yield and quality. Monitoring rainfall and temperature changes is critical for production forecasts, emphasizing the influence of weather on Indonesia’s cocoa market outcomes.
• Ecuador: Cocoa production in regions like Guayas and Los Rios is challenged by cooler temperatures and reduced rainfall, which may affect yields. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies are essential as Ecuador navigates the risks associated with unpredictable weather patterns in its cocoa-growing areas.

These updates underscore the global cocoa market's sensitivity to climate, economic, and regulatory changes. Each producing nation’s strategic focus on technological, regulatory, and collaborative solutions aims to bolster stability and support growth across the cocoa industry.

For more detailed insights and reports on the Cocoa market, including crop health, historical weather data, pricing trends, and earnings analyses, visit CropGPT. This summary offers key highlights from the week.