Why Pax Americana is Dying and What Happens if China Attacks Taiwan

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg continue their analysis of the Israel-Gaza war, against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical power, increasing conflicts, and the end of Pax Americana. They also discuss why Noah expects a China-Taiwan conflict, and the possibility of WWIII. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(01:50) Commentary on the Israel-Hamas war

(03:41) The idea that wars end

(07:34) The US has lost its unipolar moment

(09:12) Should Israel double Gaza’s GDP to prevent violence?

(15:05) Rich and aggressive?

(19:50) Sponsors: Daffy and NetSuite

(22:02) Collapse of Pax Americana means countries feel safer declaring war

(22:59) Hotspots for conflict: Azerbaijan and Armenia, Serbia and Kosovo

(25:52) If China attacks Taiwan, what happens

(29:32) How should international companies get ready?

(31:12) Auditing supply chain

(33:50) Recap of the tension between Taiwan and China

(35:14) Strategic Ambiguity

(38:11) Other key players in the Taiwan-China conflict

(47:10) The Europeanization of the Ukraine war

(50:17) We have nukes in Germany

(51:03) Comparing Obama/Trump/Biden policies

(53:37) What we’re actually doing vs the illusion of what we’re doing with Iran

(54:26) How should the government get ready?

This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at [e-mail].