Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 12

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Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Steelers 20, Browns 16.5

Steelers-Browns is Week 12’s lowest-totaled affair and a game to fade where sensible in fantasy-lineup decisions. … Cleveland’s defense has shown enough vulnerability to deep passes for two-QB-leaguers to stand by deep-ball aficionado Russell Wilson; the Browns have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (36). … In Week 11’s neutral-script bout with Baltimore, Najee Harris out-snapped Jaylen Warren 44 to 26 and out-touched Warren 22 to 13. The Browns are holding enemy backs to the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy points. Harris is a volume-driven RB2. Warren is a justifiable flex option who’s especially attractive in single-game DFS.

Russ’ 2024 target distribution: George Pickens 33; Calvin Austin 16; Warren and Darnell Washington 12; Van Jefferson 11; Harris and Pat Freiermuth 10; Mike Williams 1. … Pickens’ receiving lines through four Wilson starts are 5/111/1, 4/74/0, 5/91/1, and 8/89/0. Pickens is easily Pittsburgh’s most dangerous weapon on downfield throws, where Cleveland’s secondary is most vulnerable. It doesn’t hurt that Browns CBs Denzel Ward (rib/ankle) and Greg Newsome (shoulder) are banged up. … Austin offers 4.32 speed and theoretical big-play potential but has caught just seven of 16 targets from Wilson and logged a season-low 33% snap rate in last week’s victory. … Blocking tight end Washington is out-targeting Freiermuth with Wilson under center. Both are touchdown-or-bust options usable only on one-game DFS slates. … Williams ran seven routes in his Steelers debut, then 15 in last week’s win. He was not targeted against the Ravens. This is a plus draw for Williams’ skill set on paper, but it’s fair to doubt how much further his role can grow on a short week.

This is a worrisome spot for Jameis Winston facing an elite Steelers pass defense yielding the NFL’s third-lowest completion rate (61%) and second-lowest QB rating (77). Winston’s blindside protection is in danger against Pittsburgh’s vicious outside rush with LT Dawand Jones (broken leg) lost to I.R. and disappointing Jedrick Wills (knee) limited in practice. The Steelers’ D/ST is a confident play. … Jerome Ford out-snapped Nick Chubb by a 41-to-22 margin in Week 11’s loss to New Orleans due to negative script; the Saints pounded the Browns 35-14. Through four 2024 appearances, Chubb carries a subpar 53/163/1 (3.1 YPC) rushing line with only two catches. I’m not sure we’re going to reach a point in the season where Chubb becomes a confident RB2 play. I think he will need touchdowns to matter.

Winston’s 2024 target distribution: Jerry Jeudy 34; Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore 30; David Njoku 26; Ford 7; Chubb 3. … Coming off his best game in literal years, Jeudy leads the Browns in targets, yards (312), and first-down conversions (14) on Winston’s throws on the season. The Steelers’ physical backend will pose matchup problems for Jeudy, but he’s earned WR4/flex consideration in a week with six teams on bye. … Tillman’s Week 11 box-score production underwhelmed, but he drew eight targets while leading all Browns pass catchers in snaps played and routes run. I’m still approaching Tillman as a WR3/flex start. … Moore’s target counts in Jameis’ four starts are 6, 12, 9, and 8. He’s WR4/flex material in this projected low-scoring slugfest. … Njoku is averaging 8.8 targets in his last five games.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Browns 16

Minnesota @ Chicago

Team Totals: Vikings 21.5, Bears 18

Vikings-Bears is Week 12’s lowest-totaled non-Thursday game pitting against each other teams that each rank bottom seven in QB rating allowed. Chicago is yielding the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to signal-callers, rendering Sam Darnold a two-quarterback-league consideration only. … Since Chicago’s Week 7 bye, enemy backs have clipped the Bears for a combined 117/594/4 (5.1 YPC) rushing line, while Aaron Jones has cleared 16 touches in five straight games. Cam Akers has overtaken Ty Chandler as the Vikes’ No. 2 back but lacked efficiency, averaging 2.7 yards per carry over Minnesota’s last two affairs.

In his presser this week, Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell attributed Justin Jefferson’s Weeks 10-11 production slowdown to heavy defensive attention; no wide receiver draws double teams at a higher rate. Jefferson’s Week 12 draw gets no softer against a Bears defense holding enemy WRs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points. Yet Jefferson’s talent is always worth gambling on. … Dating back to last season, Jordan Addison has gone 11 straight games without reaching 75 receiving yards. He’s turned into a touchdown-reliant WR3/flex option. … T.J. Hockenson has yet to reach a 50% playing-time clip in three games since returning from last year’s ACL/MCL tears. He was out-snapped by blocking TE Josh Oliver in last week’s win. I’m approaching Hockenson as a fringe TE1/2 fantasy bet here.

Although the Bears’ offense looked far better under interim OC Thomas Brown in Week 11’s loss to Green Bay than it had under fired OC Shane Waldron, I’m limiting optimism for Caleb Williams and Co. against Minnesota. Vikings DC Brian Flores’ aggressive unit has permitted the NFL’s eighth-lowest completion rate (63%) and fifth-lowest QB rating (79.4) while piling up the NFL’s third-most sacks (35). Williams has taken the most sacks in the league (41). … Roschon Johnson’s increased role was notable in Brown’s debut; featured in short-yardage and passing situations, Johnson logged only 11 fewer snaps and five fewer touches than previous bellcow D’Andre Swift against the Packers. This is a favorable matchup for neither Bears back, but Johnson could offer flex appeal down the stretch.

Even as Williams completed an array of highlight-reel throws versus Green Bay, no Bears pass catcher exceeded 65 yards. Chicago did lean heavily into three-receiver sets, the top playing-time beneficiary being TE Cole Kmet, who logged a season-high 97% snap rate, while Waldron favorite Gerald Everett (11%) faded away. Kmet is going to be a borderline TE1/2 factor as long as he’s playing every snap, regardless of opponent. … D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen have plateaued on near-equal footing as WR3/flex types.

Score Prediction: Bears 17, Vikings 16

Detroit @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Lions 29, Colts 21.5

Beneath Indy’s Lucas Oil Stadium dome, the full-strength Lions are positioned to punish a Colts defense permitting the NFL’s fourth-highest completion rate (69.5%) and sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6). The Colts have yielded the league’s eighth-most fantasy QB points. Jared Goff is a high-floor fantasy starter. … David Montgomery banked touch totals of 20, 13, and 18 over Detroit’s last three games, while Indianapolis is doling out 151.2 total yards per game to enemy RBs. … The Colts have given up the NFL’s seventh-most catches (52) to running backs, while Jahmyr Gibbs ranks ninth among RBs in receiving yards (256).

Amon-Ra St. Brown has cleared 100 yards and/or hit paydirt in nine straight games. The Colts have given up the NFL’s 10th-most catches (132) and eighth-most receiving yards (1,701) to enemy wideouts. … Only seven defenses have permitted more 20+ yard completions than Indianapolis (32), while the Colts have surrendered the league’s third-most 40+ yard passing conversions (8). Despite limited snaps, Jameson Williams ranks No. 9 in the NFL in 20+ yard receptions (11) and No. 4 in 40+ yard catches (4). … Sam LaPorta (shoulder) appears likely to return following Week 11’s absence to face a Colts defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Quietly, LaPorta is averaging 11.4 yards per target this year compared to 7.4 last season.

Anthony Richardson’s box-score ceiling can’t be ignored — Lions-Colts is Week 12’s second-highest-totaled game — but Detroit’s D/ST stands out here. Colts starting C Ryan Kelly (calf/knee) and RG Will Fries (tibia) are on I.R., while LT Bernhard Raimann (knee) is less than 100%. Richardson’s upside remains tangible — he’s topped 27 fantasy points twice this year — but the Lions should be able to grab a lead here and force the Colts into turnover- and sack-friendly situations. … On the season, Detroit has limited enemy running backs to the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points. Negative game script is another threat to Jonathan Taylor with Indianapolis installed as a multi-score underdog. Still averaging 22.2 touches over his last six appearances, sheer volume keeps Taylor locked as a shoo-in RB1 play.

Richardson’s 2024 target distribution: Michael Pittman Jr. 42; Alec Pierce 25; Josh Downs 23; Adonai Mitchell 19; Kylen Granson 10; Taylor 9. … Playing through a bad back, Pittman has cleared 50 yards in just two of 10 appearances this season. … Detroit’s secondary hasn’t shown enough vertical vulnerability for optimism regarding high-aDOT downfield stretcher Pierce. … Showing a respectably high floor regardless of quarterback, Downs has banked 60+ yards in seven of his last eight appearances. The Lions have surrendered the NFL’s most catches (157) and fourth-most receiving yards (1,887) to opposing wideouts.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Colts 13

New England @ Miami

Team Totals: Dolphins 26.5, Patriots 19

In Drake Maye’s five full games this season, he’s netted fantasy-point totals of 22.5, 20.8, 18.7, 12.8, and 20.0. Yet Miami has held enemy quarterbacks to the NFL’s fewest fantasy points, fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6), and 10th-lowest passer rating (86). Maye profiles as a decent-floor but questionable-ceiling QB1/2. … Rhamondre Stevenson has logged at least 70% of New England’s offensive snaps in four straight games and averaged 20.8 touches during that span. Antonio Gibson hardly even plays at this point. The run-funnel Dolphins have hemorrhaged the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to enemy running backs.

Maye’s 2024 targets: Pop Douglas 37; Hunter Henry 36; Kayshon Boutte 27; Austin Hooper 19; Kendrick Bourne 15; Stevenson 13; Ja’Lynn Polk 9; Gibson 8. … In addition to targets, Douglas leads the Pats in catches (27) and yards (279) on Maye’s throws, but New England is leaning into a Nos. 2-4 WR rotation in which Douglas, Bourne, and Polk are sharing snaps, rendering all three part-time players. And this is a tough draw; only Denver is allowing fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than Miami. … Boutte is operating as the Patriots’ clear-cut No. 1 wideout at this point but still hasn’t hit 60 yards in a game all year. … Henry is my favorite New England pass-catcher play here. He is averaging 7.2 targets over his last five games, while the Dolphins are more vulnerable over the middle than outside.

The Fins’ somewhat surprisingly high team total plus Miami’s full-strength supporting cast inspires confidence that Tua Tagovailoa can turn in a fantasy-useful game in a week with six teams on bye. Tua has been FF’s overall QB13 in four games since returning from his latest concussion. … De’Von Achane has taken firm control of Fins feature back duties, while Jaylen Wright has officially passed fumbling Raheem Mostert as Miami’s No. 2 RB. Over his last three games, Achane is averaging 19.3 touches on a 67% playing-time rate. Most importantly for full-PPR scoring, Achane ranks second among all running backs in receptions (46). New England has surrendered the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to RBs.

Tua’s 2024 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 44; Achane 35; Jonnu Smith 31; Jaylen Waddle 26. … Hill has complained of a wrist injury in recent weeks but is practicing in full and rarely misses snaps. Big-time explosive games simply haven’t been there for Tyreek this season, so perhaps Sunday’s matchup can spark him; the Patriots have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most 20+ yard completions (33). … Locked in as an every-week TE1, Smith is fantasy’s TE4 over the past five weeks. He logged a season-high 81% snap rate in Week 11’s win over the Raiders. … Smith’s emergence plus Achane’s return to full health have forced Waddle into a backseat role on offense. Waddle hasn’t cleared 60 receiving yards since Week 1.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, Patriots 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Buccaneers 24, Giants 18

Baker Mayfield spiked a top-seven finish in six out of seven games before losing both Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (dislocated ankle) in Week 7, finishing as the QB8, QB16, and QB24 over his last three starts. New York creates pressure on 35.1% of dropbacks (fifth), but Mayfield remains third in completion rate (61.5%) under duress. Evans’ return elevates Baker’s QB1 floor. I bet the Bucs to catch the Falcons and win the NFC South at +350. … Bucky Irving out-carried Rachaad White in each of their last three games in unfavorable (and losing) game scripts. With the Bucs favored by six points on the road, Irving — 0.31 missed tackles forced per attempt (third), 5.1 yards per carry (fifth), and a 7.3% explosive run rate (eighth) — has 100 yards and multiple touchdowns in his range of outcomes against a Giants unit being road-grated for a league-high 5.2 YPC. OC Liam Coen additionally noted the team needs to “make sure we leave each week saying…[Sean Tucker]’s touched the ball a few times”, but that perceived uptick is not expected to limit either Bucky’s or White’s ceiling. The latter is an RB2/3 (behind Irving) for his 14.2% target share (to Bucky’s 10.3%) for 20/164/4 receiving since returning from injury.

Tampa welcomes Evans back with open arms after Bucs WRs totaled one touchdown without him from Weeks 8-10. Although his snap count for a team fighting for their playoff lives is unclear, Evans has registered a 41% target share on 104 plays without Godwin since 2023 (per Sports Info Solutions). Similar to Puka Nacua’s, Christian McCaffrey’s, and Nico Collins’ first games back in season-long leagues, Evans should be started blindly. … Jalen McMillan injured his hamstring in practice ahead of Week 9 and did not log a single snap (despite being active) in Week 10 for it. None of Sterling Shepard (5/55/0 over his last two games), Ryan Miller (33% catch rate), Rakim Jarrett (3/19/0), or Trey Palmer (2/33/0) made an impact for McMillan in that time, leaving the light on for the third-round rookie in 12-/14-team leagues. Logically, the Bucs have not thrown in the towel on a player they need after six appearances. … Cade Otton’s ceiling alongside Evans ROS is admittedly concerning given the latter’s six red-zone targets and two end-zone targets through Week 6; only when Evans was injured did Otton explode for team-high figures in RZ (11) and EZ (4) targets over the last month. Note that Ja’Tavion Sanders (2/10/1) scored the first and only touchdown by a TE against the Giants before their bye.

Put the word out there that Tommy DeVito is back up after Daniel Jones was demoted then released coming out of the team’s Week 11 bye in favor of DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle. Tampa’s secondary permitted a 70.9% completion rate (third) and 8.4 YPA (third) in six games headed into their bye with five (out of six) quarterbacks posting 23.8 fantasy points, Spencer Rattler (12.4) being the outlier. DeVito also tacked on 5.4 carries and 31.2 weekly rushing yards in his five full starts last year, and the only mobile QBs HC Todd Bowles defended — Jayden Daniels (16/88/2), Bo Nix (9/47/1), Jalen Hurts (8/20/1), and Lamar Jackson (9/52/0) — all had success on the ground. DeVito is a confident Superflex streamer and core DFS play. … Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s overtime fumble cost the Giants a win in Munich, but that error is not expected to cut his reps; he’s out-touched Devin Singletary 58-20 in their last three games together. Leaking 16.7 fantasy points and 3+ receptions to RB1s in five consecutive games, the Bucs’ front seven is not one that can box out Tracy, ninth in yards after contact per attempt (2.79), from RB2 territory. Singletary remains tucked away in our One Injury Away list.

Listed ‘questionable’ on the team’s final injury report, Malik Nabers told media he’ll play through his groin injury suffered mid-week. Per Fantasy Points Data, DeVito’s uncatchable pass rate last year (11.2%) was quietly lower than Dimes’ (16.3%), boosting Nabers’ ceiling for the first time since he returned from injury. Beyond the season opener, enemy WR1s have averaged 20.4 fantasy points against Tampa Bay. … For what it’s worth, Wan’Dale Robinson led the team with a 17.8% target share (without Nabers, obviously) from DeVito last year. Robinson’s averaged 10.4 PPR points (WR52) in eight starts alongside the No. 6 overall pick. … Jalin Hyatt ran a route on 76% of New York’s dropbacks before the bye solely because Darius Slayton could not clear the league’s concussion protocol in time to travel. Practicing in full ahead of this one, Slayton is expected to box out Hyatt in three-wide sets, as he’s done in every game he’s been available for. … Specimen Theo Johnson (6-foot-6/259) is intriguing in deeper leagues for the Bucs’ 9.8 per-week points (fourth) oozed to that position including their past month against George Kittle (3/57/1), Travis Kelce (14/100/0), Kyle Pitts (4/91/2), and Mark Andrews (4/41/2).

Score Prediction: Bucs 28, Giants 24

Dallas @ Washington

Team Totals: Commanders 28, Cowboys 17.5

Losers of five straight and both of Cooper Rush’s starts, the Cowboys could turn to Trey Lance at any time, rendering Rush a two-QB-league consideration only, even after he threw for 354 yards (on 55 attempts) in Week 11’s loss. Rush also took five sacks versus Houston, while starting OGs Tyler Smith (ankle/knee) and Zack Martin (shoulder/ankle) haven’t been practicing. Washington’s D/ST is very playable here. … Rico Dowdle remained Dallas’ Week 11 lead back but ran in place, managing 34 scoreless yards on 12 touches against the Texans. Ezekiel Elliott was mostly a designated pass protector. This is a tasty on-paper spot for Dowdle; Washington has been shredded for 5.1 yards per carry and 160.5 total yards per game by running backs. I worry about game script and the health of Dallas’ interior offensive line, but Dowdle is at least RB2/flex playable in a week heavy on byes.

CeeDee Lamb has been among 2024’s biggest box-score disappointments, but his target competition is nearly nonexistent with Jake Ferguson (concussion) on the shelf. Rush has targeted Lamb 26 times this season, double the amount he’s thrown at any other Cowboy. … I expect 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker to be Dallas’ primary tight end over UDFA rookie Brevyn Spann-Ford at Washington. Schoonmaker drew 10 targets from Rush in Week 11’s loss, securing six for 56 yards. He’s a very viable TE1 streamer. … With Jalen Brooks benched against the Texans, the Cowboys trotted out Jalen Tolbert as their No. 2 wideout, rookie Ryan Flournoy as their No. 3, and KaVontae Turpin as their No. 4. Tolbert has cleared 45 receiving yards in two of 10 games this season. Flournoy generated 19 yards on three targets. Turpin broke a 64-yard touchdown on a screen but remains a niche guy.

Jayden Daniels’ rushing production has all but dried up in four games since suffering a rib injury, averaging 28 yards on the ground with zero rushing TDs in that span. The good news is Daniels is now coming off a mini-bye following Washington’s TNF loss to Philadelphia, while the Cowboys are hemorrhaging the NFL’s second-most points per game (29.3) and fifth-most fantasy QB points. … Finally off Washington’s weekly injury report, this is a low-key breakout spot for Brian Robinson Jr., who also stands to benefit from rest time following the mini-bye after battling a knee injury. Robinson looked sharp on 17 touches against the Eagles and is the lead back for a home team favored by two scores. Dallas has given up a crisp 4.61 yards per carry and the league’s second-most fantasy points to running backs.

Daniels’ 2024 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 63; Zach Ertz 56; Noah Brown 41; Ekeler 35; Olamide Zaccheaus 27; Luke McCaffrey and Dyami Brown 17; Robinson Jr. 13. … Shut down by Eagles star rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell last Thursday, McLaurin is still averaging a robust 2.25 yards per route run and is fantasy’s WR7 in PPR scoring on the year. He’s long past earning every-week starter treatment. … The outlook never changes for catch-and-fall guy Ertz, who logs consistent target volume but rarely creates big plays. … Noah Brown remains locked in as Washington’s No. 2 receiver, last week leading all Commanders WRs in snaps (51) and routes run (30). Brown has drawn six-plus targets in four of the last six weeks. Brown is ultimately a TD-reliant WR4. … Zaccheaus, McCaffrey, and Dyami Brown continue to share No. 3 WR duties near evenly, deleting each others’ fantasy relevance.

Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Cowboys 20

Kansas City @ Carolina

Team Totals: Chiefs 26.5, Panthers 15.5

This is a pull-up spot for the Chiefs facing one of the NFL’s worst teams after their 15-game win streak was snapped in Week 11’s loss at Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes should tee off on a Panthers defense giving up the league’s sixth-highest completion rate (68.7%), sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6), and third-highest QB rating (103.9) while ranking second to last in sacks (12). This figures to be one of the cleanest pockets Mahomes has experienced all year. … Out since Week 2, my guess is Isiah Pacheco (broken leg) will return on a limited basis here, initially operating as a change-of-pace complement to Kareem Hunt. No team has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than the Panthers. I’m backing Hunt as RB2 playable for one more game but clinging tightly to Pacheco as a stretch-run stash.

The Chiefs deployed a five-man WRBC in Week 11’s loss to Buffalo involving Xavier Worthy (32 snaps), Justin Watson (31), DeAndre Hopkins (26), JuJu Smith-Schuster (20), and Mecole Hardman (13). None exceeded 61 receiving yards. Week 12’s matchup is much softer on an individual basis for Kansas City’s wideouts, yet their committee usage hurts their box-score floors. … The Panthers are surrendering the NFL’s most fantasy points to tight ends, while Travis Kelce is consistently appearing on over 80% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps and has drawn double-digit targets in four of K.C.’s last six games. No. 2 TE Noah Gray flukily hit paydirt twice in Week 11’s defeat, snapping his 15-game scoreless streak.

Bryce Young hasn’t hit 16 fantasy points in a single game this year, while K.C. is allowing the NFL’s eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7) and eighth-fewest points per game (19.1). … Rookie Jonathon Brooks (knee) is ticketed to make his NFL debut behind Chuba Hubbard, to whom the Panthers signed a four-year, $33.2 million extension two weeks ago. The Chiefs have played shutdown run defense all year. While I’m interested to see Brooks’ touches, I fully expect Hubbard to keep Panthers lead-RB duties for the rest of the season.

Out since Week 3, Adam Thielen’s (hamstring) expected return throws a wrench into Carolina’s wideout rotation which has featured Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette. The Chiefs have allowed the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards to wide receivers (1,215), while Young hasn’t reached 225 yards passing in a game this year. This sets up as a fantasy situation to avoid. … Rookie TE Ja’Tavion Sanders logged snap rates of 85% and 88% in Carolina’s two pre-bye games, banking stat lines of 4/87/0 and 2/8/1. The biggest threat to Sanders’ usage is the probable return of Tommy Tremble, who missed Weeks 9-10 with a back injury.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Panthers 3

Tennessee @ Houston

Team Totals: Texans 25.5, Titans 17

Will Levis is a sitting duck for Houston’s D/ST, which ranks No. 5 in sacks (34) and has allowed the NFL’s third-lowest QB rating (78.7). Levis has taken 12 sacks over his last two starts. The Texans are expected to get back 2023 DROY Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) here after he missed Houston’s previous two games. … Tyjae Spears (concussion) appears unlikely to receive clearance, which would relaunch Tony Pollard into every-down duties against the Texans. The matchup is no pushover — only five NFL defenses have given up fewer fantasy running back points than Houston — but Pollard is always RB1/2 playable when Spears sits.

Levis’ 2024 targets: Calvin Ridley 39; Pollard 25; Tyler Boyd 21; Spears and Chig Okonkwo 16; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 11; Josh Whyle 10. … In addition to targets, Ridley leads the Titans in yards (278), first-down conversions (12), and TDs (3) on Levis’ throws. The Texans have coughed up the league’s ninth-most yards (1,681) and an NFL-high 16 TDs to enemy wide receivers. … Boyd has gone 18 consecutive games without reaching 60 yards and is scoreless in 20 straight. … Okonkwo is scoreless since Week 1 and has cleared 40 yards in one of 10 games. … Westbrook-Ikhine is playing almost every Titans offensive snap and has hit paydirt in five of their last six games, but he’s yet to top six targets in an individual week.

Because C.J. Stroud adds little production with his legs, he is quite reliant on elite pass-catcher play to pay fantasy QB1 dividends. Houston’s loss of Stefon Diggs (ACL) and Nico Collins’ (hamstring) month-plus absence all but deleted Stroud’s ceiling; he’s gone five straight games without reaching 13.5 fantasy points. Diggs is out for the year, but Collins is back, and Tennessee has posed a middling matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. I’m valuing Stroud as a fringe QB1/2 here. … Looking as svelte as ever and persistently breaking long runs, Joe Mixon enters Week 12 having topped 100 rushing yards in six of eight appearances while overtaking Saquon Barkley as fantasy’s overall RB1 in per-game PPR scoring. Mixon is averaging 25.8 touches over his last five games. He’s earned matchup-proof treatment.

Collins lost a 77-yard touchdown on an illegal formation penalty via LT Laremy Tunsil in Week 11’s win over Dallas and also had a 26-yard catch overturned on replay review. From a health standpoint, Collins looked back to 100%. Even in Sunday’s difficult draw, Collins warrants WR1 valuation. Collins’ matchup is improved by the ongoing absence of Titans top CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad). … Tank Dell is averaging 8.3 targets for 73 yards over Houston’s last three games. He’s a boom-bust WR3/flex starter against the Titans. … John Metchie operated as the Texans’ primary slot receiver in Week 11’s win over Dallas but has cleared 35 yards in one of eight games this season. … A huge 2024 disappointment after the Texans re-signed him to a three-year, $36 million deal this offseason, Dalton Schultz is scoreless on the season and has exceeded 52 receiving yards in one of 11 appearances.

Score Prediction: Texans 20, Titans 13

Denver @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Broncos 23.5, Raiders 17.5

Up to +300 for Offensive Rookie of the Year — and suddenly nipping at Jayden Daniels’ (-400) heels — Bo Nix enters Week 12 as fantasy’s overall QB7 in per-game scoring. He’s fantasy’s QB4 since Week 5. This is another favorable draw; the Raiders have yielded the NFL’s sixth-highest completion rate (68.7%) and eighth-highest QB rating (100.6) while ranking bottom four in sacks (19). Denver’s offensive line has been pristine in pass protection all season. … The Broncos’ backfield has devolved into an in-game feel situation with three candidates for touches in Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime. There is nothing intimidating about Vegas’ run defense, but betting on Denver RBs is like playing whack-a-mole.

Nix’s 2024 target distribution: Courtland Sutton 85; Williams 44; Lil’Jordan Humphrey 39; Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin 32; Marvin Mims Jr. 21; McLaughlin 17. … Finding his stride with Nix, Sutton is averaging seven receptions for 92.5 yards over Denver’s last four games. Sutton has graduated to every-week WR2 treatment. … Behind Sutton, the Broncos are running a four-man WR weave involving Humphrey, Vele, Franklin, and Mims. I’m fading all against a Raiders defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to enemy wideouts.

With few exceptions, the Raiders’ offense is a full fade against a Broncos defense allowing the NFL’s third-fewest points per game (16.6). … 2-6 as Vegas’ starter, Gardner Minshew is forever at risk of in-game benching. … With Zamir White (quad) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) hurting, the Raiders’ running back room may be reduced to special teamer/passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah and sixth-round rookie Dylan Laube. The Broncos have permitted the league’s 10th-fewest fantasy RB points. … Regardless of opponent, Brock Bowers has earned elite TE1 treatment. He leads all tight ends in targets (89), catches (70), and yards (706). … Tre Tucker hasn’t cleared 40 yards since Week 4. … Jakobi Meyers is a WR4/flex option against a Broncos defense permitting the NFL’s fewest fantasy WR points.

Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Raiders 10

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Team Totals: Packers 25, 49ers 22

Brock Purdy’s shoulder soreness is worth monitoring heading into game day, but the sense among most beat writers as of Thursday was that it’s unlikely to affect Purdy’s availability. Checking in as fantasy’s QB6 in per-game scoring, Purdy is likely to get back George Kittle (hamstring), while Packers top CB Jaire Alexander (torn PCL) is expected to miss. Purdy remains in QB1 crosshairs. … Albeit lacking his usual second gear coming off dual Achilles injuries, Christian McCaffrey is averaging 21 touches for 106.5 yards in two games since coming off I.R. He’s playing 92% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, rendering the 49ers’ alternative RB options entirely irrelevant. The most promising takeaway from CMC’s return has been his pass-game usage, collecting 10 catches on 12 targets for 95 scoreless yards.

Purdy’s 2024 target distribution: Jauan Jennings 58; Kittle 53; Deebo Samuel 52; Ricky Pearsall 17; CMC 12. … In addition to targets, Jennings leads San Francisco in yards (588) and first-down conversions (30) on Purdy’s throws. Jennings has played 93% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps over their last two games. … Among tight ends, only Brock Bowers is outscoring Kittle on a per-game basis. Kittle has been an efficiency machine, banking a career-high 81.1% catch rate. … Samuel’s season has disappointed considering Brandon Aiyuk’s (ACL/MCL) early loss, but I’m stubbornly not giving up on Deebo since he’s still operating as an every-down player while averaging 6.7 targets and 2.7 rushing attempts over his last three appearances. I’m dialing in Deebo as an upside WR2 in season-long leagues and teeing him up aggressively in DFS. … Pearsall is playing just above half of San Francisco’s offensive snaps but goose-egged in Week 11 and hasn’t yet carved out a bankable role.

Jordan Love’s Week 12 box-score outlook is volatile, influenced by the potential absence of 49ers All-Pro EDGE Nick Bosa (hip/oblique), who bowed out of Week 11 early and didn’t practice this week. Love is fantasy’s QB8 in per-game scoring despite having played several games at less than 100%. He’s a boom-bust QB1 investment here. … Josh Jacobs logged a season-high 80% snap rate in Week 11’s post-bye win over the Bears and is averaging 20.2 touches over Green Bay’s last six games. The 49ers pose a middling on-paper matchup for enemy RBs, but Jacobs’ role is as stable and bankable as any running back’s in the league.

Love’s 2024 target distribution: Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs 40; Dontayvion Wicks 37; Tucker Kraft 34; Christian Watson 29; Jacobs 28. … Reed has exceeded six targets in just one of 10 games this season and plays only in three-receiver sets. He’s appeared on fewer than 60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in two of their last three games. Reed is a boom-bust WR3/flex type. … Doubs has a reliable snap-rate role yet has been all but silent in the Packers’ last two games, securing five of seven targets for 45 scoreless yards. The Niners have allowed the NFL’s 10th-fewest fantasy WR points. … Watson pulled ahead of Wicks in last week’s victory, out-snapping Wicks 31 to 16 and going off for 4/150/0 receiving against the Bears. On the season, Watson is averaging a scintillating 2.35 yards per route run. Watson warrants high-volatility WR3/flex treatment here. … Kraft maintained every-down TE usage in Week 11’s defeat, appearing on 93% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps against the Bears. Kraft goose-egged versus Chicago but was fantasy’s TE5 over his previous six appearances.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 23

Arizona @ Seattle

Team Totals: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 23

Winners of four straight and in first place in the NFC West, the Cardinals return from Week 11’s bye to face a dangerous Seahawks team that knocked off San Francisco 20-17 in its last game. Kyler Murray has topped 21 fantasy points in three of his last five starts. Seattle has struggled to generate pressure, ranking bottom nine in sacks (23). With a clean pocket, Murray is a shoo-in for QB1 production. … A fringe RB1/2 starter at worst, James Conner enters Week 12 ranked 13th in the NFL in touches (183) and 11th in total yards (944), while Seattle has been carved for the league’s ninth-most fantasy RB points. … The Cardinals increased rookie Trey Benson’s pre-bye usage; Benson responded with 142 yards and a touchdown on 21 touches over Arizona’s last two games. Benson is a priority RB4/5 stash.

Murray’s 2024 target distribution: Trey McBride 65; Marvin Harrison Jr. 60; Michael Wilson 44; Greg Dortch 33; Conner 30. … In addition to targets, McBride is pacing the Cardinals in catches (49), yards (552), and first-down conversions (27) on throws from Kyler. McBride is scoreless on the year; I’m betting he finds positive-touchdown regression soon. … Harrison enters Week 12 ranked No. 42 among wide receivers in receptions (33) and No. 31 in yards (499). Harrison is a WR3/flex play at Seattle, whose defense has been tagged for middling production by opposing wideouts. … Wilson has cleared 65 yards in one of 10 appearances.

Geno Smith enters Week 12 ranked 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring facing an Arizona defense surrendering the NFL’s ninth-highest completion rate (68.4%) in a possible shootout. The total on Seahawks-Cards is second highest on Sunday’s slate. … Kenneth Walker has out-touched Zach Charbonnet 123 to 42 over Seattle’s last seven games. The Cardinals have been clipped for 4.56 yards per carry and the league’s ninth-most fantasy points by enemy running backs. I’m looking at Walker as an eruption candidate in Week 12.

His aDOT expanding and route usage proactively intertwined with DK Metcalf’s, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has secured 23 of 31 targets (74%) for 359 yards (11.6 YPT) and two TDs over Seattle’s last three games. Smith-Njigba warrants locked-in WR2 valuation in Sunday’s potential track meet. … Metcalf remains Seattle’s alpha pass catcher, checking in as fantasy’s WR16 in per-game PPR scoring. Arizona’s heavy zone coverage can suffocate big-play receivers, but Metcalf’s box-score ceiling stays lofty regardless of opponent. … 32-year-old Tyler Lockett has been iced by JSN as Seattle’s No. 2 wideout. … Noah Fant (groin) appears likely to return here but has gone 27 consecutive games without scoring a touchdown.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 23

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Eagles 25.5, Rams 23

Jalen Hurts has led the Eagles to six straight wins out of their bye, completing 70.2% of his passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and 17 touchdowns (to two turnovers) from scrimmage. The Rams have generated pressure on 34% of dropbacks (seventh) around their own Week 6 bye but still ceded 18 fantasy points to Sam Darnold (QB16), Geno Smith (QB4), and Drake Maye (QB12). For what it’s worth, Hurts has folded for 5.7 YPA (26th) when pressured. … Los Angeles’ run defense in particular leveled up over the bye, squeezing enemy RBs to 3.5 yards per carry (28th) and the league’s third-lowest rate of 15-yard runs (2.2%) — a rolodex including Aaron Jones (19/58/0), Kenneth Walker (25/83/0), and De’Von Achane (12/37/0). Saquon Barkley can still deliver as an every-touch RB1 for an offense averaging the NFL’s lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the past month; he’s earned at least 11% of Philadelphia’s targets in each start without one of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith (hamstring, out). Kenneth Gainwell has handled five touches in as many consecutive games but only recorded two catches in a single performance all year.

The Eagles have only run 50 plays with Brown on the field and Smith off of it dating back to last year (per Sports Info Solutions), but AJB has unsurprisingly earned a 41% target share (!) in those instances. … None of Parris Campbell (6/30/1), Jahan Dotson (5/25/0), or Johnny Wilson (1/9/0) stepped up in the three games without either Brown or Smith this year. Pint-sized fifth-rounder Ainias Smith (5-foot-9/190) has totaled nine routes (14%) since being activated off injured reserve but has mirrored Dotson in receptions (2) in that time as a cheaper (and equally as viable) punt for one-game slates. … Dallas Goedert registered increased target shares of 13.7% and 30.5% in two games as Philly’s de facto ‘WR2’, garnering confident TE1 status against a Rams defense permitting 9.6 per-week points (ninth) to his position.

Improving to 3-1 since returning Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup, Matthew Stafford has finished as the QB6, QB14, QB21, and QB5 in that span. His ceiling in this spot is questionable given Philadelphia’s lights-out pass defense post-bye, strangling QBs for 5.1 YPA (32nd) and two total passing scores since Week 6. Stafford has additionally crumbled for a 2:5 TD-to-INT ratio under pressure. … Unfortunately for Kyren Williams, the Eagles have also Thanos’d RBs between the tackles including Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s (6/23/0), Chase Brown’s (12/32/1), and Brian Robinson Jr.’s (16/63/1) poor performances. Kyren at the very least handled 71.4% of the Rams’ backfield touches (for 5.7 yards per carry) against New England as a terrific buy-low option ahead of the fantasy playoffs. As noted in our One Injury Away list, Blake Corum should be stashed behind him.

Kupp (37%) and Nacua (33.3%) most recently boxed out the rest of their teammates for 70% of Stafford’s targets against the Patriots. Only Ja’Marr Chase (20.4) eclipsed 9.0 fantasy points against the post-bye Eagles, permitting 9.5 points (31st) to WRs from the boundary and 10.9 (19th) in the slot, where Kupp has run a team-high (and nice) 69% of his routes since returning from injury. … Demarcus Robinson has earned 15% of the team’s targets in only one of four games since Puka and Kupp returned, and arguably accomplished as much solely for Nacua’s first-half ejection (leading to Robinson’s 21.4% share against the Seahawks). With a 16.8-yard depth of target and as many end-zone opportunities (6) as Kupp in that span, Robinson can still spike suitable production for showdown slates. Tutu Atwell’s 21-yard catch from Week 11 was a mirage since it came on only five routes run. … Although it was Colby Parkinson who caught a 19-yard touchdown (on six total routes) against the Patriots, Davis Allen has quietly lapped him in route participation (48% < 84% < 56%) in three consecutive games. The latter is our preferred target in TE-premium scoring and single-game offerings in an otherwise nightmarish matchup against the Eagles, who are eliminating TEs for 4.6 weekly points (30th).

Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Rams 18

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Chargers 24.5

Buckle up. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson enter The Harbaugh Bowl fresh off an 18-16 divisional loss to Pittsburgh after Justin Tucker missed another two FGs; he’d be cut by now if his name were ‘John Smith’. Fortunately for Baltimore, Los Angeles failed their litmus test against an above-average offense on Sunday night against the Bengals, allowing Joe Burrow to toss for 356 yards and three scores as fantasy’s overall QB2. OC Todd Monken’s 2021 Georgia offense racked up 7.3 yards per play against then-Vanderbilt DC Jesse Minter. … Derrick Henry has scored in every game this season, masking touch counts of 12, 17, and 13 in three of his last four starts. It’s another questionable spot for his ceiling against a bend-don’t-break Chargers front seven hitting enemy runners almost immediately after 1.4 yards (26th) of space. Chase Brown (22/86/0) was recently held to 3.9 YPC but got there with 5/57/0 receiving; permitting 5.2 weekly catches (seventh) to opposing backfields, Justice Hill stands out as a volatile (but viable) option in one-game slates.

Zay Flowers’ 2.43 Yards Per Route Run against man coverage (22nd) discouragingly dips to 1.79 (43rd) against zone, and Minter has schemed zone coverage on 78% (second) of LA’s defensive snaps. Zay’s poor (by his standards) 18.7% and 19.3% target shares against divisional opponents in back-to-back weeks can still be ignored for this sexy environment. … Managers should not drop Diontae Johnson just yet after Rashod Bateman suddenly missed Friday’s practice with a knee injury. Johnson has recorded one catch (for six receiving yards) in three games since being acquired but would presumably start in 2-WR sets if Bateman is out. If available, the latter has earned at least four targets in seven consecutive games and offers massive splits against zone (1.91 YPRR and 17.4 yards per catch) as a high-floor WR4/5. … Isaiah Likely’s return to the lineup following a hamstring injury resulted in his third-highest target share (15.2%) of the season and, simultaneously, Mark Andrews’ return to a split route rate (57%); the veteran ran a route on 86% of Lamar’s dropbacks sans Likely in Week 10. With a double-digit share in four of his last five outings, Likely arguably offers the higher ceiling between the two. Andrews’ TE2 floor is a tough sell opposite a Bolts defense allowing 5.1 per-game points (27th) to tight ends.

The Ravens leaked multiple touchdowns and 21 fantasy points to five of six signal-callers before squaring off against Russell Wilson in a low-scoring divisional bout. Averaging 31 pass attempts (for 8.6 yards per attempt) in six starts post-bye (including 14/97/1 rushing in his last two), Justin Herbert once again projects as a top-six option under center. I bet him to win MVP at his current 20-to-1 price. … Albeit a Revenge Game for J.K. Dobbins, his 29-yard touchdown to defeat the Bengals overshadowed Gus Edwards’ 30% share of RB touches (with six carries) in back-to-back weeks. Baltimore has not allowed a single player to rush for 65 yards, and Dobbins’ lathered touchdown deodorant is why he’s scoring 2.7 more points per game (sixth) than expected. I’d sell high in any leagues where trading remains open, though ILB Roquan Smith’s potential absence with a hamstring injury boosts Dobbins’ floor this week.

First-year DC Zach Orr notably blitzes at the league’s eighth-highest rate, and Ladd McConkey has earned a team-high 27.7% target share when Herbert faces extra pass rushers (per Fantasy Points Data). McConkey’s shoulder injury limited him in Friday’s practice. Mirroring Marvin Harrison Jr. with 2.01 YPRR (37th) compared to last year’s 0.88 (87th), Quentin Johnston is equally as intriguing for his field-flipping 8.1 YAC/reception (seventh) and three consecutive games with a receiving score. … Josh Palmer continues to operate in 3-WR sets for the Chargers but has recorded three receptions in only one of his last six games, his 12.5 yards per target give him an out in Showdown. … Only Taysom Hill (32%), Dalton Kincaid (32%), and Evan Engram (30%) have been targeted at a higher rate of their routes than Will Dissly (29%) since Hayden Hurst was initially injured in Week 7, stacking 10.8 per-game points (TE11) in that stretch. Note that Baltimore ceded double-digit fantasy points to four consecutive TE1s before Pittsburgh’s machination failed to get there last week.

Score Prediction: Chargers 34, Ravens 31