Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 17

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KC @ PIT | BAL @ HOU | SEA @ CHI | LAC @ NE | DEN @ CIN | ARI @ LAR | NYJ @ BUF | LV @ NO | IND @ NYG | DAL @ PHI | CAR @ TB | TEN @ JAX | MIA @ CLE | GB @ MIN | ATL @ WAS | DET @ SF

1:00 PM ET Game (Wednesday)

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20

On their third game in 11 days, the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh with Patrick Mahomes having netted fantasy’s QB8 score over his last five starts while getting back field-stretching WR Marquise Brown (shoulder) against a Steelers defense likely missing top CB Joey Porter Jr. (calf/knee). Mahomes’ protection remains a big concern; Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (23%), while Pittsburgh has generated the NFL’s second-most QB knockdowns (60). I’m valuing Mahomes in low-end QB1 territory. … Kareem Hunt has stayed (slightly) ahead of Isiah Pacheco in Kansas City’s backfield order by churning out consistent gains; over the past two weeks, Hunt has parlayed 27 touches into 128 yards and a touchdown versus Pacheco’s 24/36/0 result. The Steelers present a below-average fantasy running back matchup, rendering both Hunt and Pacheco TD-dependent flex options.

Operating as Mahomes’ No. 1 wideout lately, Xavier Worthy has played 80% or more of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in three straight games and handled 16 touches over the last two. Asked about Worthy this week, OC Matt Nagy likened his progress to Rashee Rice’s as a rookie. In fantasy, Worthy remains a boom-bust WR3/flex pick. … Marquise Brown ranked fifth among Chiefs WRs in snaps in his first game back but drew eight targets, second most on the team. Among Kansas City wideouts, I’m valuing Worthy in his own top tier while approaching Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as low-ceiling rotational players. … Pittsburgh has coughed up the league’s seventh-most catches to tight ends (83), keeping Travis Kelce relevant and elevating Noah Gray’s sleeper appeal.

Russell Wilson has finished below 20 fantasy points in six of eight starts since taking over for Justin Fields, while Kansas City has yielded the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest passer rating (87.9). Wilson is a poor two-QB-league play. … Jaylen Warren passed Najee Harris as Pittsburgh’s main back over the Steelers’ last two games; Warren out-snapped Harris 63 to 31 and out-touched him 22 to 16 during that span. Yet no NFL team has permitted fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Chiefs this season.

Steelers No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring) appears ticketed to return from his three-game absence. In Weeks 7-13 — the period in which Wilson started for the Steelers and Pickens was healthy — Pickens was fantasy’s overall WR11 in per-game PPR scoring. … With Pickens due back, Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams check in as dart-throw plays on Wednesday-only two-game DFS tournament slates. … Pat Freiermuth is a matchup-driven TE1 streamer facing a Chiefs defense yielding the NFL’s third-most catches (94) and a league-high 1,090 receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 20

4:30 PM ET Game (Wednesday)

Baltimore @ Houston

Team Totals: Ravens 26, Texans 20.5

Lamar Jackson visits Houston’s retractable NRG Stadium dome to face a Texans defense missing FS Jimmie Ward (foot) and SS Jalen Pitre (shoulder) while permitting the league’s ninth-most fantasy quarterback points. Jackson leads the NFL in completions of 40+ yards (13); Houston has conceded the league’s third-most 40+ yard completions (10). … Over his last four games, Derrick Henry is averaging 21.5 touches for 126.8 yards without a single score, suggesting Henry is due for positive-touchdown regression here. Ravens No. 2 RB Justice Hill (concussion) seems unlikely to be active against the Texans.

Zay Flowers profiles as a high-floor, questionable-ceiling WR2 play at Houston having collected six-plus targets in eight straight games yet nursing a shoulder injury. … Rashod Bateman has exceeded 80 yards in one of 15 appearances, while the Texans have yielded the NFL’s 10th-most yards to wide receivers (2,318). … Nelson Agholor’s (concussion) Week 17 availability is to be determined. Tylan Wallace was Baltimore’s next man up in Agholor’s Week 16 absence, yet Wallace ran only six pass routes and wasn’t even targeted against Pittsburgh. … Mark Andrews is fantasy’s overall TE6 since Week 6, while Week 17 foe Houston is missing both starting safeties. … Isaiah Likely is a TD-dependent streamer.

C.J. Stroud enters Week 17 having scored 18 fantasy points or fewer in nine straight starts now at risk of missing C Juice Scruggs (foot) and RG Shaq Mason (knee). Stroud’s box-score outlook is dismal after he lost best friend Tank Dell to a debilitating Week 16 knee injury. … As usual, Joe Mixon is a volume-driven RB2 play with RB1 upside facing a Ravens defense surrendering the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy running back points. Houston’s OL injuries further complicate Mixon’s projection. He still stands to flirt with 20 touches.

Nico Collins is Saturday’s premier box-score play facing a Ravens defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-most catches (199), fourth-most receiving yards (2,579), and sixth-most receiving TDs (17). … The Texans claimed Diontae Johnson off waivers from the Ravens after losing Tank Dell (ACL/dislocated kneecap), but Johnson can’t be expected to make an immediate impact. … Robert Woods has cleared 20 yards in just one of 13 games. … John Metchie has drawn four targets or fewer in 10 of 11 appearances. Metchie is allegedly now battling a shoulder injury. … Dalton Schultz is TE1 streamable against the Ravens, who’ve given up the NFL’s seventh-most catches (83) and seventh-most receiving yards (880) to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 17

Thursday Night Football

Seattle @ Chicago

Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Bears 20

Geno Smith squares off in Week 17 with a Bears defense permitting the NFL’s second-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) and fourth-most 20+ yard completions (53). Geno ranks top 10 in the league in 20+ yard completions (45) and 13th among QBs in fantasy scoring. Assuming the Solder Field weather cooperates, this is a get-right spot for the Seahawks’ aggressive downfield-challenging signal-caller. … Kenneth Walker resumed Seahawks lead-back duties in Week 16’s loss to Minnesota but suffered an ankle injury on top of his preexisting calf strain and appears unlikely to face Chicago. No longer listed with the oblique injury that limited him last Sunday, Zach Charbonnet looks like a Thursday night smash against a Bears defense enemy running backs have carved for 4.8 yards per carry and 152.4 total yards per game. Charbonnet’s touch counts in his four 2024 starts are 19, 21, 29, and 9. Charbonnet offers RB1 bellcow potential in the event Walker indeed sits.

Geno’s 2024 targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 122; DK Metcalf 99; Tyler Lockett 66; Walker 53; Noah Fant 49; Charbonnet 46. … Geno and Smith-Njigba have developed a tight bond; over their last six games, Geno is 43-of-51 passing (87%) for 521 yards (10.2 YPT) and three TDs when targeting JSN. … An underachiever and subpar ball winner, Metcalf has exceeded 70 receiving yards once since Week 4. I’m still siding with Metcalf as an upside WR2 play against a Bears defense that’s hemorrhaging deep pass completions as mentioned above. … Lockett has drawn four targets or fewer in eight straight games. … Fant warrants TE1 streamer attention; Chicago has conceded the NFL’s sixth-most yards to tight ends (909).

Caleb Williams will face Seattle missing LT Braxton Jones (broken ankle) and probably LG Teven Jenkins (calf) in an otherwise positive draw after Sam Darnold (QB9), Jordan Love (QB12), and Kyler Murray (QB10) registered favorable FF results against the Seahawks in Weeks 14-16. I’m approaching Williams as a fringe QB1/2 here. … The Seahawks present a middling matchup for running backs, while Bears lead RB D’Andre Swift has gone eight straight games without netting 100 total yards and is now missing nearly half of his O-Line.

Keenan Allen looks like an old man on the field but is fantasy’s overall WR6 since Week 12. Thriving on instincts and volume, Allen has drawn eight-plus targets in six of his last eight appearances. He’s a WR2 starter versus Seattle. … D.J. Moore topped 100 receiving yards five times last season. This year, he’s done so twice. Deemed a team captain, Moore’s body language has been rough, and his on-field production inconsistent. As the Seahawks have allowed the NFL’s 13th-most fantasy wide receiver points, Moore still warrants WR2/3 valuation. … Rome Odunze has cleared 80 yards in two of 15 games. He’s a WR3/flex option here. … Cole Kmet has drawn four targets or fewer in eight of his last nine appearances.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Bears 23

1:00 PM ET Game (Saturday)

L.A. Chargers @ New England

Team Totals: Chargers 23, Patriots 19

The Chargers visit Foxboro with Justin Herbert having finished below 18 standard-league fantasy points in four of his last five starts and L.A.’s rushing attack positioned for success with Gus Edwards coming off his season-best game, J.K. Dobbins (knee) potentially set to play for the first time since Week 12, and New England missing star DT Christian Barmore (reserve/NFI, blood clots). Over the past two weeks, Cardinals and Bills RBs clocked the Pats for a combined 47/289/3 (6.1 YPC) rushing line. I’m not sure how L.A.’s backfield will shake out in terms of touch distribution — especially if Dobbins returns — but the Bolts are set up for run-game efficiency here. I’m anticipating a limited-volume game for Herbert.

Another running-game plus for Los Angeles is the likely return of stud blocking TE Will Dissly, who missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Dissly coming back would also delete Stone Smartt’s fantasy relevance. … A rock-solid WR2, Ladd McConkey was fantasy’s WR17 in PPR points per game in Weeks 11-16. Since McConkey runs nearly 70% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez on the vast majority of Saturday’s pass plays. … Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer rounded out Los Angeles’ three-receiver sets in Week 16’s win over Denver. They are likelier candidates for Gonzalez’s coverage in a game where the Chargers figure to feature their rushing attack.

Drake Maye hasn’t hit 20 standard-league fantasy points since Week 7. The Chargers are yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8) and 10th-lowest QB rating (86.9) while ranking No. 7 in sacks (42). Already beleaguered on the offensive line, the Pats may be without C Ben Brown (concussion). I’m approaching Maye as a two-quarterback-league starter but low-end streamer option. … Rhamondre Stevenson committed his NFL-high seventh fumble of the year in Week 16’s loss to Buffalo and should have been charged with his eighth, only for scorekeepers to attribute it to Maye. Afterwards, HC Jerod Mayo suggested Stevenson’s ball insecurity could cost him his starting job in favor of Antonio Gibson. The Chargers have permitted the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

The Patriots ran a finite three-receiver package of Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and Pop Douglas in Week 16’s defeat with Boutte leading the way in snaps (88%), targets (7), and production (5/95/1). No New England wideout has proven box-score trustworthy over the course of the year, but these three are playable on Saturday-only three-game slates. … This is a #RevengeGame for Hunter Henry against the team that drafted him. The Bolts have coughed up the NFL’s 11th-most catches to tight ends (80). … Austin Hooper is worth a look in Saturday-only DFS averaging 48.8 receiving yards over the Pats’ last six games.

Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 20

4:30 PM ET Game (Saturday)

Denver @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 26.5, Broncos 23

This is a premium spot for Denver’s offense facing a Bengals team surrendering the NFL’s fifth-most points (26.2 PPG) while missing starting DLs Sam Hubbard (knee) and Sheldon Rankins (illness) plus MLB Logan Wilson (knee, I.R.). Still fantasy’s overall QB9 on the year, Bo Nix is a confident QB1 at Cincinnati in Week 17’s second-highest-totaled game. … The Broncos’ backfield remains a mess with HC Sean Payton saying one-dimensional rookie Audric Estime has earned more opportunities, Javonte Williams still heavily involved in passing situations, scatback Jaleel McLaughlin due back from his quad injury, and early-season big-play threat Tyler Badie (back) activated off I.R. This is a touch-and-go RBBC.

Denver’s elite pass protection plus Cincy’s lack of pass-rush production — the Bengals rank bottom six in sacks (30) — should ensure Nix dwells in a clean pocket, allowing Courtland Sutton to make plays downfield. Cincinnati has given up the NFL’s 10th-most 20+ yard completions (45) and fifth-most connections of 40+ (9). … The Broncos continue to run a four-way rotation at Nos. 2-5 wide receiver involving Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. None of them exceeded five targets in Week 16’s loss to the Chargers. They’re all dart throws on Saturday-only DFS slates. (I’m typically siding with Vele if forced to choose.) … The Broncos are also wielding a fantasy-unfriendly committee at tight end composed of Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins.

In Week 16’s win over Cleveland, Joe Burrow became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 250+ yards and three-plus TDs in seven straight games, breaking Tom Brady’s record (6). I’m approaching Burrow as a matchup-proof, elite QB1 whose Week 17 outlook is propped up by Saturday’s potential shootout. … Chase Brown played a career-high 98% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps in last Sunday’s victory and is fantasy’s RB5 since Week 9. Colts and Chargers RBs combined to clock Denver for 43/205/2 (4.8 YPC) rushing over the last two weeks. The Broncos have also surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most catches to running backs (77), while Brown ranks fifth at his position in receptions (50) on the year.

Especially with Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss due back from his three-week knee injury, Burrow’s biggest Week 17 obstacle is a loaded Denver pass defense headlined by DPOY candidate Patrick Surtain holding enemy WRs to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points. The Broncos only sporadically utilize Surtain to shadow opposing No. 1 wideouts, while Ja’Marr Chase is on a Triple Crown mission leading the NFL in receptions by a seven-catch margin, maintaining a 123 receiving-yards lead, and having scored four more receiving TDs than anyone else in the league. … In per-game PPR points, Tee Higgins is fantasy’s overall WR13 since coming off injury in Week 11. He’s a bet-on-talent WR2 play versus Denver. … Bengals No. 3 WR Andrei Iosivas profiles as a touchdown-or-bust option on Saturday-only DFS slates. … Mike Gesicki has hit paydirt in one of 15 appearances this year, and his target totals over Cincinnati’s last five games are 2, 5, 3, 4, and 2. He isn’t a realistic TE1 streamer.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Broncos 23

8:15 PM ET Game (Saturday)

Arizona @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Rams 27, Cardinals 20.5

Eliminated from playoff contention following Week 16’s loss to Carolina, the Cards placed starting OTs Paris Johnson (knee) and Jonah Williams (knee) on I.R. this week and profile as an attack target for the Rams’ D/ST. As the strength of Los Angeles’ defense is its front four, Kyler Murray figures to experience heavy duress on Saturday night. … James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) were limited participants in early-week practice, suggesting both could be active against a middling Rams run defense. Without anything left to play for, it’s fair to wonder if the Cardinals might lean more into Benson, the 66th overall pick in 2024’s draft. A proven commodity, Conner will turn 30 before the start of next season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared 65 yards in two of 15 games. He did clap these same Rams for 4/130/2 receiving in Week 2, while L.A. has let up the 10th-most fantasy WR points over the course of the year. … The Rams have permitted the NFL’s 10th-most catches (82) and ninth-most receiving yards (858) to tight ends. This is a cinch spot for Trey McBride. … Cardinals No. 2 WR Michael Wilson has gone 10 consecutive games without clearing 60 yards.

Even after back-to-back slow box-score efforts against the 49ers (weather) and Jets (game flow), I’m going right back to Matthew Stafford as an upside QB1 starter Saturday night versus the Cardinals. Arizona has coughed up the league’s third-highest completion rate (69.8%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and sixth-highest passer rating (97.6). The Rams didn’t list a single player on Week 17’s injury report. … Re-establishing himself as the fulcrum of L.A.’s offense, Kyren Williams is averaging 28.7 touches, 112.7 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns over the Rams’ last three games. Williams is a home-favorite bellcow RB facing a Cardinals defense surrendering the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy running back points.

Puka Nacua has caught at least seven passes in seven of his last nine appearances and is fantasy’s overall WR3 behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown since returning from injury in Week 8. … Nacua has clearly separated from Cooper Kupp as Los Angeles’ No. 1 receiver, but I’m going right back to Kupp as a WR2 in an environment where his QB should thrive. … The Rams are now running a four-man tight end weave involving Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Hunter Long, and Davis Allen. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 17

N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 28, Jets 19

Buffalo’s D/ST is an attractive Week 17 play at home as 9-point favorites against a Jets team down to its third-string left tackle after losing Tyron Smith (neck) and Olu Fashanu (foot) for the year. RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) and RT Morgan Moses (ankle) were also out of practice early this week, while Aaron Rodgers is nursing a sprained MCL. … Breece Hall reasserted himself atop Gang Green’s backfield in Week 16’s loss to the Rams, logging 19 touches on a 77% playing-time clip. This is a plus on-paper draw for Hall; Buffalo has let up the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points and second-most catches (86) to running backs.

Garrett Wilson is on #SqueakyWheel alert after expressing frustration with his usage after Week 16’s defeat, while Davante Adams (hip) is less than 100%. The Bills have provided a middling matchup for wide receivers. I’m approaching Wilson and Adams both as upside WR2s. … Allen Lazard has dropped nine of 54 targets this season, “good” for a league-worst 17% drop rate. Lazard has 38 scoreless yards to his name since the month of October. … Tyler Conklin has cleared 60 yards in one of 14 appearances and hit paydirt in just two of 14.

Nursing a right elbow/shoulder injury that caused numbness in his throwing hand, Josh Allen is coming off his season-worst game in Week 16’s close-call win over New England. Allen is practicing fully this week, however, and the Jets’ defense is banged up with Nos. 1 and 3 CBs Sauce Gardner (hamstring) and Michael Carter (back) missing early-week practice and DT Quinnen Williams coming off a hamstring pull that cost him last Sunday’s game. Still fantasy’s No. 2 quarterback scorer, Allen should stay locked into lineups during title week. … Buffalo’s backfield has devolved into a full-blown three-way RBBC; Ty Johnson led the room in Week 16 snaps (39%), but only barely ahead of James Cook (36%) and Ray Davis (24%), yet Cook exploded for 126 total yards and two scores on 14 touches, while Johnson (6/30/0) and Davis (6/29/0) were involved but far less impactful. Last week, Kyren Williams shredded this same Jets defensive front for 129 yards and a TD on 24 touches. I’m viewing Cook as a volatile yet high-ceiling RB1/2 play with Buffalo favored by nine at home.

Based on route participation on Allen’s Week 16 dropbacks, Khalil Shakir was the Bills’ No. 1 receiver against the Patriots, Mack Hollins was the No. 2, Keon Coleman was No. 3, and Amari Cooper was No. 4. Meanwhile, Dawson Knox out-snapped and ran more pass routes than Dalton Kincaid. No team in the league uses wider-ranging skill-player rotations than Buffalo. Shakir is the lone somewhat confident box-score bet, and he’s a fringe WR3/flex.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Jets 17

Las Vegas @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Raiders 19.5, Saints 18

As Raiders-Saints is Week 17’s lowest-totaled affair, this is a game to shy away from in lineup decisions. … Aidan O’Connell has played in three full 2024 games; his weekly fantasy finishes in them are QB26, QB11, and QB25. The Saints have allowed the league’s 11th-fewest fantasy quarterback points. … Alexander Mattison operated as the Raiders’ lead back in Week 16’s win over the Jaguars but ran in place (12/27/1 rushing), whereas Ameer Abdullah parlayed 12 touches into 85 yards and a TD. New Orleans has been stomped for the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy RB points. Mattison and Abdullah are fringe flex plays here.

AOC’s 2024 targets: Brock Bowers 47; Jakobi Meyers 30; Tre Tucker 17; Abdullah 16; Mattison 14; Michael Mayer 8. … Last week, Bowers became the third tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Bowers’ stat lines in O’Connell’s three full games are 9/71/0, 10/140/1, and 11/99/0. … Meyers is a rock-solid WR2/3 option against a Saints defense conceding the league’s sixth-most catches (194) and fifth-most receiving yards (2,539) to wideouts. … Diminutive Tucker appears to have maxed out as a lightly-used gadget guy. … Raiders No. 2 TE Mayer has exceeded three targets in one game all season.

The Saints sound likely to again trot out overwhelmed fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler after Rattler turned in fantasy results of QB20, QB24, and QB32 in his three previous full games. Vegas’ D/ST is playable with New Orleans at risk of missing C Erik McCoy (elbow) and LG Lucas Patrick (knee). … Alvin Kamara (groin) appears probable to sit after Kendre Miller, Jordan Mims, and Jamaal Williams formed a gross three-way RBBC in Kamara’s Week 16 absence against the Packers. Miller was presumed to have the upper hand but is apparently still struggling with the Saints’ playbook and barely played in the second half.

Sidelined since Week 9, Chris Olave (concussions) is practicing fully and has a chance to bookend Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest), who missed Week 16. With Rattler behind center, I still have no idea what to make of New Orleans’ Week 17 wideout distribution and am not wholly convinced Olave will play. … The Saints’ two-way tight end committee of Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson works against itself in terms of individual box-score relevance. The good news is the Raiders have coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most catches (88) and fourth-most receiving yards (942) to tight ends. The bad news is Moreau and Johnson are sharing the field with an overmatched Day 3 rookie quarterbacking the offense.

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Saints 13

Indianapolis @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Colts 24, Giants 16

This is an eruption spot for Indianapolis’ offense against a Giants team giving up the NFL’s eighth-most points per game (24.1), including a league-high 69.8% completion rate, the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.7), and pro football’s second-highest passer rating (104.4). Anthony Richardson is fantasy’s QB9 in per-game scoring since Week 11. … Jonathan Taylor handled touch counts of 26, 23, and 29 over the Colts’ last three games. The Giants have conceded the league’s sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. In Week 16, Indianapolis got back stalwart C Ryan Kelly (knee) from I.R., making a huge difference.

Michael Pittman Jr. is scoreless since Week 6 and has cleared 65 yards in two of 14 games. The Giants have allowed the NFL’s eighth-fewest fantasy WR points. … Rookie Adonai Mitchell jumped into Alec Pierce’s (concussion) role in last week’s win over Tennessee and drew just one target. Pierce seems probable to return here. … Downs has emerged as the Colts’ best wide receiver but plays with a quarterback completing an anemic 47.7% of his throws, rendering Downs a dicey WR3/flex option in fantasy. … Colts TEs are never fantasy-relevant.

Indianapolis’ D/ST is a recommended streamer against Drew Lock, who is nursing a right shoulder injury after delivering two pick-sixes against the Falcons and could be benched at any moment for Tommy DeVito. … Tyrone Tracy Jr. maintained New York’s lead RB job over Devin Singletary in Week 16’s defeat, out-snapping Singletary 36 to 13 and out-touching him 11 to 4. Tracy encounters a favorable draw so long as the G-Men can keep Sunday’s game close; Indy has yielded 145.2 total yards per game to enemy RBs. College WR Tracy is an excellent receiver, and the Colts have given up the league’s 10th-most RB catches (72).

Malik Nabers needs nine catches over the season’s final two weeks to break Puka Nacua’s record for most receptions by a rookie. … Wan’Dale Robinson is sporting a minuscule 4.9-yard aDOT while averaging 10.7 targets over New York’s last three games. He offers some PPR-league appeal but is in no way positioned to create big plays. … Darius Slayton hasn’t cleared 30 yards since before the Giants’ Week 10 bye. … Since Theo Johnson was lost for the season, Daniel Bellinger is averaging three catches for 28 scoreless yards per game.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Giants 10

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 22.5, Cowboys 15.5

Eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys have shut down top offensive player CeeDee Lamb (shoulder, I.R.) and figure to struggle to score on the road against an Eagles team yielding the league’s fifth-fewest points per game (18.9). Cooper Rush has asserted himself as one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks — he’s 9-4 across 13 career starts — but nothing about Rush’s weaponry or matchup suggests he’ll be box-score successful here. … Rico Dowdle is an entirely volume-driven RB2 option averaging 21.4 touches over Dallas’ last five games but facing an elite Eagles run defense on a Cowboys team projected as touchdown underdogs on the road. I don’t trust Dowdle’s floor and question his ceiling.

Lamb’s absence frees up over 10 targets per game in Dallas’ offense. I expect the Cowboys to trot out a three-receiver set of Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and Ryan Flournoy with KaVontae Turpin mixing in as No. 4. Jonathan Mingo also figures to soak up some snaps. In fantasy, I’m not tempted by any of them. Dallas’ non-Lamb pass catchers have been problematic all season, and the Eagles have yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards (1,970) to WRs this year. … Philadelphia has straightened out its tight end coverage via improved linebacker and safety play, while Jake Ferguson is scoreless in 17 straight games and has increasingly fallen into a TE rotation with Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford.

Signs point to Jalen Hurts (concussion) sitting and Kenny Pickett starting versus Dallas, necessitating an extremely Saquon Barkley-first game plan. It just so happens that Barkley is 268 yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, while the Cowboys have surrendered the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points to running backs and third-most yards per carry (4.8). The Eagles feel heavily incentivized to saddle Barkley for a grandiose workload. … You’re on your own throwing darts at Eagles pass catchers with Pickett under center, but it’s mildly notable that A.J. Brown carries a massive 48% target share on Pickett’s 2024 attempts. It’s a free for all regarding the likes of DeVonta Smith and Grant Calcaterra.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 13

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Panthers 20, Buccaneers 28

Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback in Week 16, Bryce Young has quietly tacked on 5.9 weekly rushing points over his last six starts including 29.3 yards per game. Cooper Rush’s 8.3 yards per attempt (as the overall QB19) against Tampa Bay’s injury-riddled secondary coupled with the highest projected scoring environment (49.5) on Sunday leaves the light on for Young in Superflex leagues. … Chuba Hubbard got there with 87.8% (29) of Carolina’s backfield touches and two carries for 28 and 21 yards (and the ensuing game-winning touchdown) in overtime against the Cardinals but is plopped into a significantly tougher spot against this Bucs front seven that not only stuffed Hubbard for 12/43/0 in their last bout (in Week 13) but has not allowed a single RB to score 11 PPR points in five games out of their bye. Whereas Arizona ranks 27th in EPA/carry, Tampa Bay sits sixth.

The only confident option to stack with Young, Adam Thielen led the Panthers in targets in four consecutive starts as a WR3/FLEX. Note that the Bucs have permitted the fourth-most per-week points (13.5) from the slot, where Thielen has run a team-high 76% of his routes upon returning from injury. … Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, David Moore, and Thielen have been active together for one game (Week 15) all season, and it only lasted for two quarters before Legette was ruled out with hip/wrist injuries; Moore was the odd man out with a 21% route participation in those 30 minutes, per Fantasy Points Data. Coker’s 83-yard touchdown against the Cowboys was purely a coverage bust, leaving both him and Legette, the latter who’s expected to play in 2-WR sets, as thin WR5s for 12-team leagues. … Tommy Tremble (49% route rate) and Ja’Tavion Sanders (54%) have practically split reps the last three weeks in an unusable committee. Sanders hasn’t touched the ball since Week 12.

Even in being sacked four times with one interception and fumble against Dallas, Baker Mayfield yet again tossed for 300 yards and finished as the overall QB7, registering a top-seven finish in nine out of 11 starts with Mike Evans. Sunday also presents a much softer matchup on paper: Carolina ranks dead last in pressure rate (24.5%) and Mayfield has stacked a league-high 32 passing touchdowns from a clean pocket — Lamar Jackson, for example, is second with 29. The only hang-up for Baker would be Carolina’s obvious inability to stop the run, limiting Jalen Hurts (108), Cooper Rush (214), and Kyler Murray (202) to less than 215 passing yards the past three weeks because it was so damn easy to #EstablishIt. … The last two times Bucky Irving practiced in full, he out-touched Rachaad White 28-12 and 19-10 including last week’s season-high 84.2% share of RB carries. Now off the injury report altogether (after White’s game-ending fumble), an overall RB1 finish is in Bucky’s range of outcomes. White’s double-digit touches in six consecutive games gift him a high RB3 floor.

Mike Evans needs 91 YPG to reach his 1,000-yard quota for the 11th straight year, and the Bucs have to win out to make the postseason. For what it’s worth, Evans recorded 8/118/1 in his first game against the Panthers even with CB Jaycee Horn (hip, out) available. … Jalen McMillan’s continued involvement as a WR3/FLEX with 23%, 23%, and 16.5% of the team’s targets the last three games (with at least one touchdown in all) is safe sans Sterling Shepard (hamstring/foot, out). The latter’s direct replacement, Ryan Miller, came off the bench for his highest route participation (48%) post-bye once Shepard was ruled out, qualifying as a viable TE exclusively on FanDuel for nearly being the stone minimum ($4,300) there. … 2023 fifth-rounder Payne Durham provided a five-catch floor on 16.2% of Tampa Bay’s targets in place of Cade Otton (knee, out) as an every-down streamer for managers who lost Brenton Strange or Stone Smartt to timeshares.

Score Prediction: Bucs 31, Panthers 17

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Jaguars 20.5, Titans 19.5

Mason Rudolph has played four full games this season, logging weekly fantasy finishes of QB20, QB13, QB17, and QB19 in them. Yet Rudolph now squares off with a Jags defense surrendering league-high figures in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and QB rating (106.4). Rudolph is a cinch two-quarterback-league starter with DFS tournament appeal in stacks with Calvin Ridley and/or Chig Okonkwo. … Tony Pollard’s (ankle) iffy health renders Tennessee’s backfield projection tough to figure after Tyjae Spears out-snapped Pollard 37 to 24 and out-touched Pollard 13 to 10 in Week 16’s loss to Indianapolis. Sunday’s matchup is obviously favorable; only Carolina has conceded more fantasy running back points than Jacksonville. I’m treating both Pollard and Spears as touch-and-go RB2 plays for Week 17.

Rudolph’s 2024 targets: Calvin Ridley 43; Chig Okonkwo 33; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 20; Pollard 19; Tyler Boyd 15; Josh Whyle 14; Spears 11. … This is a #RevengeGame for Ridley against his 2023 team. The Jags have permitted the NFL’s third-most yards to wide receivers (2,614). … Okonkwo banked stat lines of 8/59/0 and 9/81/0 on target counts of 10 and 11 in Rudolph’s last two starts. Chig played a season-high 85% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in Week 16’s defeat. Jacksonville has coughed up the league’s 10th-most yards (855) and fourth-most TDs (7) to tight ends. … Westbrook-Ikhine remains the most touchdown-reliant wide receiver in the league. He’s averaging 3.0 targets over Tennessee’s last three games.

Tennessee’s defense has fallen apart to the extent that Mac Jones is a start-worthy option in two-QB leagues. Allowing an average of 30.8 points over their last five games, the Titans placed top tackler MLB Kenneth Murray (wrist) on I.R. this week and may be without SS Amani Hooker (shoulder). Jones is fantasy’s QB19 over the last month. … Although Travis Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby 35 to 19 in Week 16’s loss to Vegas, Bigsby out-touched Etienne 13 to 11, and D’Ernest Johnson (19% snaps) was involved enough to cut into the usage of both. The good news is Jonathan Taylor showed last week that Tennessee’s defense is capable of being trampled (29/218/3 rushing, 7.5 YPC). The bad news is the Jags are stuck on a two-man backfield with near-equal projections for Etienne and Bigsby.

Jones’ 2024 target distribution: Brian Thomas Jr. 59; Parker Washington 27; Brenton Strange 23; Etienne 18; Devin Duvernay 13; Bigsby 5. … Thomas has drawn double-digit targets in four straight games and is fantasy’s overall WR4 during that span. Based on his athleticism and ball skills, Thomas has a chance to develop into the best receiver in the league over the next few years. Even against a Titans defense yielding the NFL’s fewest fantasy points to wideouts, I’m keeping Thomas dialed in as a shoo-in WR1. … Strange suffered a shoulder injury, lost a fumble, and committed a drop in Week 16’s defeat, and wound up falling into a three-way TEBC with Luke Farrell and Josiah Deguara. The Titans have allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy TE points. … Washington led Jaguars pass catchers in Week 16 snaps played and routes run but has cleared 55 yards once all season, showing little to no upside.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Titans 23

Miami @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Dolphins 23, Browns 16.5

Sporting a sub-40-point total, Fins-Browns profiles as a low-scoring, fantasy-unfriendly affair. … Tua Tagovailoa is fantasy’s QB26 over the last two weeks. He may not have Jaylen Waddle (knee) again, and he is in danger of playing Sunday’s game in the Cleveland rain. It’s difficult to get excited about Tua’s box-score outlook this week. … Nothing stands out particularly positively about De’Von Achane’s Week 17 matchup, but he’s played at least 66% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps in four consecutive games and averaged 19.3 touches for 101.3 yards and 0.75 TDs during that span. On the season, Achane leads all NFL running backs in catches (76), receiving yards (579), and receiving touchdowns (6).

Arguably fantasy’s most non-injury disappointment, Tyreek Hill enters Week 17 ranked No. 18 in PPR receiver scoring. Sunday’s on-paper matchup is right — the Browns are missing No. 2 CB Greg Newsome (hamstring) and have served up the NFL’s 10th-most yards (2,365) and a league-high 22 touchdowns to enemy wideouts — yet Hill’s to-date production demotes him to WR2 valuation rather than the elite WR1 he was billed to be. … Waddle did return to limited practice at midweek, giving him a chance to face Cleveland. Waddle is likely still short of 100%, however, and has cleared 60 yards twice since Week 1. … Jonnu Smith is entrenched as an every-week TE1 lock. On the season, Smith ranks No. 6 among tight ends in targets (95), No. 4 in catches (76), No. 4 in yards (802), and No. 4 in TDs (6).

Even after he mustered one scoring drive in Week 16’s start against Cincinnati’s swinging-gate defense, the Browns are sticking with Dorian Thompson-Robinson nearing the finish line of another lost year. DTR has played near-full games four times in his career. His weekly FF results in them are QB29, QB24, QB27, and QB30. That’s not even two-quarterback-league production. … Whereas D’Onta Foreman lost a fumble that led directly to a Bengals TD, Jerome Ford dominated Browns Week 16 backfield snaps (80%) while parlaying 16 touches into 131 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland’s Week 17 running back usage should belong to Ford against a Fins defense missing run-stopping MLB Anthony Walker (knee). … Dating back to last season, DTR’s go-to guy has been David Njoku. Yet Njoku (knee) isn’t practicing this week, while backup Jordan Akins has failed to deliver in Njoku’s four 2024 absences. … Whereas the opposite was true with Jameis Winston at QB, I want no part of Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, or Cedric Tillman with Thompson-Robinson at the controls.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, Browns 10

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Team Totals: Vikings 25, Packers 24

Week 17’s third-highest-totaled game, Packers-Vikings will be played beneath Minneapolis’ U.S. Bank Stadium dome in a matchup that should dictate typically run-heavy Green Bay spiking its pass rate. Minnesota has maintained league-best run defense over the course of the year but has allowed the NFL’s third-most passing yards (4,043) and seventh-most 20+ yard completions (49), amounting to a pass-funnel unit. Sacked just four times in his last eight games, I’m viewing this as a breakout spot for Jordan Love. … Josh Jacobs’ matchup is obviously unideal, but his legs should be fresh after the Packers rested Jacobs for most of Week 16’s blowout win over New Orleans, and he’s still averaging 22.1 touches over his last eight appearances. Jacobs is a volume-driven RB1 play against Minnesota.

Box-score expectations for Packers pass catchers should elevate based on matchup and environment; Green Bay projects to throw more than usual. In a potential track meet, I’m dialing up Jayden Reed as an upside WR2/3 plus Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as raised-ceiling WR3/flex plays. The Vikings have allowed NFL highs in catches (224) and yards (2,850) to wide receivers. … Another beneficiary of Green Bay increasing its pass rate would be Tucker Kraft, who is fantasy’s TE10 over the past five weeks. He’s a low-end TE1.

On an absolute heater, Sam Darnold is fantasy’s QB3 with a 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio and an additional rushing score over the last six weeks. The Packers don’t present a friendly QB draw, but Darnold offers matchup-proof appeal indoors with his supporting cast at full health. … This is a #RevengeGame for Aaron Jones, who tagged the Packers for 139 total yards when these teams met in Week 4. Jones played 82% of the Vikings’ Week 16 snaps and should continue to be a full-time player here as Minnesota jostles for playoff seeding.

Historical Justin Jefferson-versus-Jaire Alexander results feel irrelevant considering the Packers have a first-year defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley, and Jefferson dusted Green Bay for 6/85/1 receiving on eight targets in Week 4; yet Alexander didn’t even play. … Jordan Addison cooked the Packers for 3/72/1 receiving on four targets in Week 4. Addison’s per-game target average is up to 8.7 over his last six appearances. … T.J. Hockenson draws the softest on-paper matchup among Vikings pass catchers; Green Bay has yielded the NFL’s seventh-most receptions (85) and seventh-most receiving yards (892) to tight ends this year.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 24

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Atlanta @ Washington

Team Totals: Falcons 21.5, Commanders 25

Rain and wind threaten any ceiling here after No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. did exactly as the organization asked of him in his debut, eating zero sacks (on nine pressures) and completing 5-of-8 passes 10 yards downfield for 11.3 yards per attempt; his only interception can be attributed entirely to Kyle Pitts, who not only volleyed a would-be TD into an interception but, to make matters worse, probably reminded owner Arthur Blank in that very moment that he was drafted over Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell. Although we’ve ticked the pass rate of both teams down in our projections, there’s meat on the bone here for Penix in Superflex leagues given Washington’s 20 completions (ninth) and league-high 10 touchdowns ged on throws 20 yards deep. … Atlanta controls their own destiny atop the NFC South after they swept the Bucs during the regular season, feeling a-OK if any inclement weather forces the ball into BIjan Robinson’s hands: Washington’s allowed the most yards before contact per attempt (2.43) and 4.82 yards per carry (fourth) from the ground. A run-heavy game script on Northwest Stadium’s abysmal grass could additionally boost Tyler Allgeier for more carries than perceived.

Drake London’s ailing hamstring is presumably an afterthought, leading the Falcons in targets (8) from Penix before he was injured. Washington has been far more susceptible from the slot (10th in weekly points) to receivers than out wide (25th), and London most recently led the team in routes run from the middle of the field before he was forced to leave. … Darnell Mooney’s ceiling is tied to Penix’s given the former’s four (out of six) targets earned 10 yards downfield. Marshon Lattimore’s absence (hamstring) opens the door for Mooney to run free over the top as a WR3/4 and potential slate-breaking Showdown play. … On one hand, Ray-Ray McCloud earned a target and eight-yard carry on the team’s opening drive against New York. On the other hand, three of his four targets came when London left the field. … Pitts’ 52% route participation in Week 16 was his second-lowest mark of the year, taking a real leap of faith to trust him (exclusively for one-game tournaments) following his disastrous turnover; Charlie Woerner ran seven routes (23%) behind him.

Jayden Daniels cemented Offensive Rookie of the Year in his five-touchdown performance over the Eagles and now benefits against a Falcons defense that’s permitted the eighth-most points per game (21.7) to enemy QBs including 5.2 weekly carries (fifth). Daniels’ floor-ceiling combo in this matchup entrenches him as a QB1 regardless of the weather. … Brian Robinson Jr.’s two fumbles in Week 16 did not deter him from leading this backfield in carries (10), touches (12), and routes run (24) ahead of both Jeremy McNichols (6/18/0 from scrimmage) and Chris Rodriguez (3/5/0) as Washington’s only viable back. Nearly a touchdown favorite at home sans Austin Ekeler (concussion, I.R.), B-Rob is logically a touch-based RB2 for projected game script ahead of both (whom are merely darts in one-game slates).

The first player in franchise history — a group consisting of Art Monk, Gary Clark, Ricky Sanders, Santana Moss, DeSean Jackson, and Charley Taylor among others — to record five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, Terry McLaurin additionally passed Sanders for the organization’s most in a single season. Fortunately, the Falcons have leaked the fifth-most fantasy points (24) to McLaurin’s position. … Dyami Brown’s absence with a hamstring injury pins Olamide Zaccheaus in his place from the boundary where Atlanta is one of only two defenses getting smoked for 17+ points per game. The slot, where Jamison Crowder ran 82% of his routes last week, is the area of the field the Falcons have been lukewarm in covering (as No. 16 in per-game points allowed there). … A full-time player the moment he cleared the concussion protocol, Zach Ertz ran a route on 67% of dropbacks against Philly but blamed his one-catch outing on the shoulder injury he’s since practiced in full through. The 34-year-old veteran earned at least six targets in five out of six starts before exiting early in Week 15 as a high-floor streamer with Noah and Dyami Brown’s targets vacated around him.

Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Falcons 16

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Detroit @ San Francisco

Team Totals: Lions 27, 49ers 23.5

Buckle up. It’s a true litmus test for Jared Goff and the Lions after he completed 60.9% of his passes (his second-lowest mark of 2023) in this very same matchup during the Conference Championship last year. When kept clean in that game, he unsurprisingly went 22-of-28 for 8.8 yards per attempt and one score. When pressured, however, Goff crumbled in completing just 3-of-13 passes for 2 YPA (!!!) and two sacks. All-Pro EDGE Nick Bosa returned from injury to hound Matthew Stafford, a similar pocket sloth, on 45% of his dropbacks two weeks ago. … Let’s not waste too much time here: there are no holes to poke in Jahmyr Gibbs’ outlook sans David Montgomery (knee), out-touching the rest of Detroit’s backfield 20 to 4 in the first half against Chicago before the Lions ran away. Kyren Williams (31/112/0 from scrimmage) and De’Von Achane (23/190/1) drowned the Niners despite Bosa’s presence the past two games.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has recently been shoved 30.5% and 25% of Detroit’s targets with Montgomery unavailable. He’s a WR1 in season-long leagues (because, simply put, he’s the Sun God) regardless of any on-paper discouragement: the Niners suffocate slot receivers to the second-fewest points per game (8.9), at the very least bringing Amon-Ra’s ceiling into question for Showdown. … Jameson Williams’ lone performance earning less than 16.7% of the team’s targets post-injury — a full seven-game stretch — came against a Bills secondary ranked 18th in 20-yard catches (19). For what it’s worth, SF did not allow a single 20-yard catch to the Dolphins last week. … Tim Patrick’s 3.1% target share in Chicago was notably his lowest in the last month without Kalif Raymond (I.R.), who’s already been ruled out for Monday. Patrick saw 8.8% < 17.1% < 13.6% of Detroit’s targets in three performances leading into that one. … San Francisco’s streak of holding every TE to less than 70 yards is in danger without LB Dre Greenlaw (calf), logically elevating Sam LaPorta on paper. His 11.6% target share (23rd at his position) through Week 10 is a moot point given his increased 17.3% share (12th) since returning from injury.

The market has much more confidence in Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s offense than any fantasy manager who’s watched them try to move the ball at any point this season; even Miami held the Niners to a 40% TD rate inside the red zone with one whiffed FG. With both LT Trent Williams (personal) and G Aaron Banks (MCL sprain) done for the year, Purdy’s low-end QB1 outlook hinges entirely on this projected 50.5-point total. … Removed from the team’s injury report altogether, a friendly reminder Isaac Guerendo out-touched Patrick Taylor Jr. 37 to 1 while they were available together in their last two games for Christian McCaffrey. Whereas Detroit would usually be a blanket statement “don’t play this guy against them” kinda defense, their injuries have clearly caught up to them in allowing James Cook (15/133/2) and Josh Jacobs (18/66/3) to run wild before D’Andre Swift perenially struggled (12/53/0).

Ignore Jauan Jennings’ 15% target share in Miami: he’d earned at least 20.7% of San Francisco’s targets in six consecutive starts before the pendulum swinging back in favor of Deebo Samuel, who was gifted his most raw touches (12) since the season opener (13). With 12 carries the past three games (and a 22.5% target share in his last two), Deebo projects neck-and-neck (albeit slightly behind in usage) with Jennings as WR2s. … Video evidence showed 49ers WRs coach Leonard Hankerson chewing out No. 31 overall pick Ricky Pearsall on the sideline for multiple penalties against Miami despite the latter’s most receptions (4) since Week 10. If Deebo’s carries were to regress due to Guerendo’s return, Pearsall could mirror him in one-game slates. … If Dalton Kincaid (4/53/0) and Cole Kmet (2/9/1) can spike production against your LBs, than anyone can. See George Kittle, whose only performance outside the top-12 tight ends was the team’s snow game against Buffalo.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, 49ers 17