Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins

Forward Guidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro

(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000

(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021

(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)

(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?

(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical

(21:19) VanEck Ad

(21:59) Palantir and Anduril

(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.

(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022

(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)

(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto

(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain

(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis

(47:50) Tether and Circle

(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)

(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore

(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare

(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?

(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas

(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.

(01:04:27) FedNow

(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?

(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk

(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024

(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech

(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.