"HOPE" - New Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack
Manage episode 336489032 series 2797437
Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK, Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. 2,000 registered voters were surveyed July 28-29, 2022. When asked how he'd sum up the latest polling numbers, Penn offered "HOPE".
Penn: I think this month's word is "HOPE". I think this poll shows that all is not lost for the Democrats, despite a very difficult situation out there. A president with very low ratings, the congressional horse race still remains close, which means that Democrats should not give up the ship here and have some hope.
Cusack: And that hope certainly would be in keeping the Senate. You know, the House is going to be difficult to retain based upon history and the president's numbers. Why do you think Democrats have had a little bit of a bump here, as you mentioned, and why do you think that the congressional generic polling is, is a dead heat with Biden's numbers still low
Penn: Well, Biden staying at 38% job approval and disapproval on virtually every major issue. But I think in some ways voters have come to separate Biden who they largely think is incompetent or not a good president from the democratic party and the democratic cause in general, as opposed to the Republicans. And so I think the Democrats have some things going for them, certainly choice in guns, helped rally. I think some of their supporters who otherwise really didn't have a big issue that they could fasten on because the election had been otherwise been dominated by inflation and immigration and crime, all Republican leaning, all Republican leading issues. So, and I think finally, you know, the Republican party is a divided party and Trump is knocking down half of the nominees. Some of the Trump nominees that were successful in the primaries are having, you know, a lot of trouble in the general election, particularly Oz in Pennsylvania. And they don't have an effective message machine out there right now. So, so that kind of tilts the page that maybe the, maybe tilts the odds just a little bit from what would otherwise have been a pretty dire situation.
Cusack: And of course, Democrats can't get too over confident. The numbers on the economy are not good. There's an intensifying debate on whether we're in a recession or not. Technically we have not heard from this nonprofit group called the National Bureau of Economic Research, which decides that though we have had data of negative growth in consecutive quarters. What the economic numbers mean to you, Mark? And do you think this whole issue of a recession, does it matter? Because a lot of people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one?
Penn: Well, most people think we're either in one or we're going to be in one, as you say, but we are definitely in a polling recession. If I were the national bureau of polling, would I declare an economic recession? Absolutely. Because we have 67% who say that the economy is on the wrong track and we have 56% of Americans saying their personal economic situation is worsening. These numbers reflect at least a polling recession. For sure. And I do think this debate about recession or not. I mean, you could Google it every single source and news thing until yesterday has always said that that two quarters of contracting grosses a recession. Recession's not a dep