S1/E30: The Islamic Republic Reacts to Trump

Iran's Gambit

The Islamic Republic has reacted with measured caution to the election of Mr. Donald J. Trump in the U.S. presidential elections. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains uncharacteristically silent, refraining from any direct commentary. Beneath surface-level official statements, such as “it does not matter who is president in the United States,” lies a profound apprehension over managing the implications of Mr. Trump’s victory—a sentiment echoed across Iran’s state-censored media. Amid these muted or guarded responses, an outline of a possible strategy emerges, likely influenced by figures such as former Foreign Minister Dr. Mohammad-Javad Zarif and former Ambassador Hossein Mousavian. This approach may include diplomatic overtures involving flattery, lauding Mr. Trump’s avowed anti-war stance, and suggesting the prospect of a historic “grand deal with Iran.” However, such a strategy risks being jeopardized by recent allegations linking the Iranian government to a purported plot to assassinate Mr. Trump. The strategy is also vulnerable to the outcome of the factional power struggle in Mr. Trump’s circle: Who will prevail in that power struggle, will also impact U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic.