))
“What Indicators Should We Watch to Disambiguate AGI Timelines?” by snewman
Manage episode 460201252 series 3364758
内容由LessWrong提供。所有播客内容（包括剧集、图形和播客描述）均由 LessWrong 或其播客平台合作伙伴直接上传和提供。如果您认为有人在未经您许可的情况下使用您的受版权保护的作品，您可以按照此处概述的流程进行操作https://zh.player.fm/legal。
(Cross-post from https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/p/are-we-on-the-brink-of-agi, lightly edited for LessWrong. The original has a lengthier introduction and a bit more explanation of jargon.)
No one seems to know whether transformational AGI is coming within a few short years. Or rather, everyone seems to know, but they all have conflicting opinions. Have we entered into what will in hindsight be not even the early stages, but actually the middle stage, of the mad tumbling rush into singularity? Or are we just witnessing the exciting early period of a new technology, full of discovery and opportunity, akin to the boom years of the personal computer and the web?
AI is approaching elite skill at programming, possibly barreling into superhuman status at advanced mathematics, and only picking up speed. Or so the framing goes. And yet, most of the reasons for skepticism are still present. We still evaluate AI only on neatly encapsulated, objective tasks [...]
---
Outline:
(02:49) The Slow Scenario
(09:13) The Fast Scenario
(17:24) Identifying The Requirements for a Short Timeline
(22:53) How To Recognize The Express Train to AGI
The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 3 images which were described by AI.
---
First published:
January 6th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ/what-indicators-should-we-watch-to-disambiguate-agi
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
…
continue reading
No one seems to know whether transformational AGI is coming within a few short years. Or rather, everyone seems to know, but they all have conflicting opinions. Have we entered into what will in hindsight be not even the early stages, but actually the middle stage, of the mad tumbling rush into singularity? Or are we just witnessing the exciting early period of a new technology, full of discovery and opportunity, akin to the boom years of the personal computer and the web?
AI is approaching elite skill at programming, possibly barreling into superhuman status at advanced mathematics, and only picking up speed. Or so the framing goes. And yet, most of the reasons for skepticism are still present. We still evaluate AI only on neatly encapsulated, objective tasks [...]
---
Outline:
(02:49) The Slow Scenario
(09:13) The Fast Scenario
(17:24) Identifying The Requirements for a Short Timeline
(22:53) How To Recognize The Express Train to AGI
The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 3 images which were described by AI.
---
First published:
January 6th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/auGYErf5QqiTihTsJ/what-indicators-should-we-watch-to-disambiguate-agi
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podc
Apple Podc414集单集
分享
