Stability and Extremes

Notes on the Week Ahead

Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”.

As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an old school bus – slow but steady, reliable and resilient. It generally moves forward. However, it is not invulnerable. The wheels of the bus are being pulled off the ground by ballooning asset prices. The new driver of the bus may or may not try some dangerous policy maneuvers. The wipers of the bus may be obscuring obstacles in the road ahead. And the people on the bus, instead of spreading out and sitting down, are all standing up, crowded to one side so that if something does go wrong, there could be significant injuries.