The Wire - November 11, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire// 2300Z November 11, 2024//

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//BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT ENGAGED BY SMALL ARMS IN HAITI. PROTESTS ERUPT IN SPAIN FOLLOWING INADEQUATE DISASTER RECOVERY EFFORTS.//

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-International Events-

Spain: Over the past few days, citizens throughout Valencia have demonstrated and protested in response to the poor administration and management of emergency resources in the wake of the severe flooding that swept through the region two weeks ago. Since the crisis struck, hundreds of casualties have been reported and widespread destruction of the city has made recovery efforts challenging. More recently, citizens have expressed frustration with the lack of significant resources dedicated to recovery efforts. Citizens are concerned that the government is not doing all it can to recover from this crisis, prompting protests.

Germany: A man was arrested in Elmshorn following an investigation of his alleged plans to conduct an attack at a Christmas market later this year. The man, a juvenile of Turkish heritage, was allegedly planning to conduct a vehicle ramming attack later this year. AC: Very few details have been provided regarding this alleged plot so far, possibly indicating an investigation is continuing. Threats specifically to Christmas markets in Germany have been substantial over the past few years, with vehicle-ramming attacks being a very high priority to defend against.

Haiti: This morning Spirit Airlines Flight NK951 from Fort Lauderdale to Port-au-Prince was forced to divert to the Dominican Republic due to successful Surface-to-Air Fire (SAFIRE) which struck the aircraft as it attempted to land. Initial reports indicate that at least one round (possibly several) penetrated the passenger cabin. One flight attendant was wounded in the attack, sustaining a minor grazing gunshot wound.

Middle East: US CENTCOM released a statement this evening confirming multiple airstrikes being conducted within Syria to target (likely) Iranian proxy groups in response to multiple attacks on US personnel yesterday.

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Analyst Comments: In Haiti, the small arms attack on a commercial aircraft is by no means surprising as the conflict throughout the nation has continued. The international airport in Port-au-Prince is legendary as the typical approach/departure profile carries aircraft directly over some of the most infamous slums in the world. Various gangs control most of the territory to the west of the airport, and aircraft on short-final approach to the airport have been at extreme risk for very successful small arms attacks for years. Up until recently, the warlords and gangs controlling this key terrain have forbade their footsoldiers from shooting at commercial aircraft largely to protect the tourism industry. Aircraft not coming in to Haiti hurts the economy, which trickles down to financial impacts for the gangs influencing the country. Now that the government of Haiti has collapsed, and tourism is off the menu with gangs running the nation totally, the primitive form of stability offered by the gangs in the past has now descended into more infighting, more conflict, and less discipline. One incident is a case study, however due to the potential severity of this situation care should be taken for any air travel into or out of Haiti. Either the incident was a one-off lack of discipline (which if true has likely already been taken care of), or it is an indicator of a much larger trend that may be developing. Until more data is obtained, no reliable prediction can be made as to whether or not this will continue. However, finding volunteers willing to become the second data point will likely be challenging.

Analyst: S2A1

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