SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL
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Manage episode 269557900 series 2737908
http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/poll-based-election-forecasts-will-always-struggle-with-uncertainty/
- gave Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of winning
- polling error is generally larger than the reported margin of error
- when nearly everyone had home telephones
- random sampling error
- weights
- which does result in some biases
- coverage error
- 78% of the population that relies mostly or completely on cell phones
- A handful use “probability” methods
- online “nonprobability” polls
- vary greatly in quality
- likely voters
- can easily result in different estimates, depending on the judgment of the decision-makers
- potential changes in how we vote
- it cannot be accounted for in the data
- the model could be adjusted
- poll variance would have to be set extremely high
- Morris
- acknowledged that the model is a work in progress
- adjusted
- adjustment
- will have some data-based ways to adjust for the pandemic
- forcing a lot of ad-hoc decisions for election modelers.
- Gelman states
- My own experience
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- Most people don’t have a solid understanding of how probability works
- I tried
- most
- people
- will misunderstand them
- will make incorrect assumptions about what they mean
- will
- filter them through
- their own biases
- as Morris notes
- work hard to communicate model outcomes well
- research shows
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