#39: 30 July 1914 I - Caught in the Net

When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

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By the morning of 30 July 1914, the German government was undergoing something of an identity crisis. Was Berlin the resolute ally, determined to support Austria whatever the cost, or was she the rational actor, determined to avoid war, even if this proved painful? To the German Chancellor and Foreign Minister, the answer wasn't immediately clear, but they were certain that where Austria was concerned, enough was enough. It was time for Vienna to explain what it planned to do in Serbia, and if necessary, it was time to consider the possibility of compromise, by using any one of the options floated in Europe over the last few days.

The reason for this abrupt change in Germany's tone can be explained by news of Russia's mobilisation against Austria. To figures like Jagow, this confirmed that Russia would not remain aloof as Serbia was destroyed. Since the war could not be isolated, it meant nothing less than its expansion, until everyone was pulled in. It was hard to imagine Germany faring well under these circumstances, when Britain was opaque but dubious, and the Italians were insisting that the alliance did not apply since Austria was the aggressor.

Jagow and Bethmann Hollweg were thus on the same page, but how much could they get done with the Kaiser watching them so relentlessly, and blowing up in a rage at every slight that arrived by telegram. In Wilhelm's defence, the Tsar's confession that Russia had been mobilising for five days was a damning indictment of Russian policy, especially since he had asked Wilhelm to mediate from the beginning. The Kaiser did not give up, and buoyed by his Ministers, Austria was placed under maximum pressure to clarify its position and step back from the brink. Unfortunately, just as Germany's team got their act together, Austria's supporters moved into place as well, and the war edged ever closer...

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