#197 Bill Fleckenstein On Why The Fed's Rate Cut Was A Mistake, The End Game For The Activist Central Bank Era, And The Psychology Of Market Bubbles

The Julia La Roche Show

Bill Fleckenstein, president and founder of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 197.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨

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*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/

00:12 Welcome and introduction

01:20 Macro view and Fed policy

7:08 Understanding inflation and central bank policies

11:21 The bond market's role in economic stability

18:01 Bubbles and market psychology

21:45 Current economic health and stagflation outlook

26:46 The Fed's credibility crisis

31:53 Implications of the upcoming election

34:13 Gold and silver investment perspectives

35:55 Japanese yen carry trade unwind

37:14 US dollar outlook

39:41 Thesis development in investing

42:00 The U.S. debt situation and future outlook

44:03 Parting thoughts on developing investment theses

46:07 Book recommendations and where to find Bill's work