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Allan Lichtman: Predicting the 2024 election using 13 metrics

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Manage episode 445556145 series 2478690
内容由Misha Zilman and Spectrum News NY1提供。所有播客内容(包括剧集、图形和播客描述)均由 Misha Zilman and Spectrum News NY1 或其播客平台合作伙伴直接上传和提供。如果您认为有人在未经您许可的情况下使用您的受版权保护的作品,您可以按照此处概述的流程进行操作https://zh.player.fm/legal

Since 1984, American historian and professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential races. Lichtman, however, does not use polling data. Instead, he has developed a set of 13 metrics — or, as he calls them, keys.

Lichtman appeared on the podcast in February to discuss his elaborate forecasting system, and he promised he’d return after he announced his pick for president. Now, Lichtman joined Errol to discuss why he believes Kamala Harris will be victorious in November. The pair also discussed the possibility of an October surprise, how past predictions have made him unpopular, and why it is governing, not campaigning, that ultimately matters.

Join the conversation, weigh in on Twitter using the hashtag #NY1YouDecide or give us a call at 212-379-3440 and leave a message. Or send an email to YourStoryNY1@charter.com

  continue reading

107集单集

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Manage episode 445556145 series 2478690
内容由Misha Zilman and Spectrum News NY1提供。所有播客内容(包括剧集、图形和播客描述)均由 Misha Zilman and Spectrum News NY1 或其播客平台合作伙伴直接上传和提供。如果您认为有人在未经您许可的情况下使用您的受版权保护的作品,您可以按照此处概述的流程进行操作https://zh.player.fm/legal

Since 1984, American historian and professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential races. Lichtman, however, does not use polling data. Instead, he has developed a set of 13 metrics — or, as he calls them, keys.

Lichtman appeared on the podcast in February to discuss his elaborate forecasting system, and he promised he’d return after he announced his pick for president. Now, Lichtman joined Errol to discuss why he believes Kamala Harris will be victorious in November. The pair also discussed the possibility of an October surprise, how past predictions have made him unpopular, and why it is governing, not campaigning, that ultimately matters.

Join the conversation, weigh in on Twitter using the hashtag #NY1YouDecide or give us a call at 212-379-3440 and leave a message. Or send an email to YourStoryNY1@charter.com

  continue reading

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