Corn Acreage near expectations Ending stocks to grow Will we see growth in consumption in 2025/26? Soybeans Small reduction in yield Ending stocks to decline, but consumption remains a question Wheat U.S. wheat acreage target vs. 2024 Some questions around spring wheat acres and yield being too high Ending stocks could offer a small surplus McKeany…

Focus: What's happening in the sugar industry and with sugar negotiations Big question: How are negotiations at this year’s Colloquium comparing to the past few years? Patient vs. pushing Are we seeing the “first buy is the best buy” mentality this year? Big topics: Upcoming crop outlook Tariffs, demand, and weight-loss drugs Will the sugar still f…

Wheat Assessing winterkill risk on wheat HRW: What does the 10-year harvested area average look like? How does this winter compare to years past? Commodity index funds Inflation worries are driving new investor money into commodity index funds Top diversified commodity funds are seeing strong growth in new assets Update on allocations to agricultur…

Cocoa arrival numbers and weather tell of a promising season ahead Major cocoa and chocolate producers are concerned about how cocoa prices can affect their financial performance and projections for the year Q4 2024 grind showed a decline in demand: Will Q1 2025 grind help with the trajectory? McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry …

Corn and soy complex USDA leaves U.S. corn/soybean balance sheet unchanged Wheat Limited changes to note for wheat U.S. wheat food demand increases, but was it justified? Global endings stocks: How much lower vs. last year? Sugar Sugar deliveries now compared to last year TRQ imports lowered McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Tr…

Jobs number disappoints slightly but revisions to prior months were positive Unemployment rate falls to lowest in eight months Wage growth is accelerating but will it keep the Fed sidelined? Final tariff policy and impact still a big unknown: Leaning towards inflationary? McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption L…

Will Mexico production fall below the 5.094 MMT forecast? How tariffs on Mexico may impact sugar trade McKeany-Flavell’s 2025 Spring Market Seminar: Industry Trends & Consumption Live online event! Wednesday, April 23, 2025 Registration is now open! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Spec…

What impacts did we see from the harsh winter weather this week? Louisiana cane crop concerns Winter wheat threatened Rumors of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine Next week! Don’t miss our Key Ingredients in 2025 webinar Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am PT / 2 pm ET Register now at mckeany-flavell.com or look for your invite starting…

December jobs boost economic expectations December FOMC points to higher inflation and fewer rate cuts Policy decisions to ban future oil drilling and add new sanctions to Russia, along with threats from Canada, spike crude prices January WASDE bullish to grain market? No shortage of volatility ahead of next Monday’s Inauguration Day! Our next webi…

Corn and soy complex USDA surprises with reduced U.S. production for corn, soybeans Domestic soybean oil balance sheet is likely more ominous than ending stocks would indicate Wheat Winter wheat acres on the rise! Up how much from 2024? Grain stocks and WASDE about as expected Sugar Beet production increased A boost to stocks-to-use ratio Our next …

Commodity trading advisor (CTA) assets under management Down from 2022 peak but still significant Large CTAs trade as many as 250 futures contracts globally Which category manages the majority of assets? Between January 2021 and February 2024, fund managers rode corn from record-long to record-short positions How many contracts did they sell? How w…

Corn Corn acres will go up on better returns than soybeans Feed demand may shrink due to continued issues of avian flu Exports are being front-loaded but could stall in the second half Could ending stocks equal 2024? Sugar At what prices will sugar futures be trading in 2025? Strong supplies and slightly lower demand in 2025 to pressure 2026 contra…

Find a warm, cozy spot and listen to Nicole showcase her annual holiday poem, as only she can do. Happy Holidays! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services由McKeany-Flavell

U.S. winter wheat crop conditions are strong heading into winter Is La Niña still forecasted? Speculators may liquidate hefty short positions Russia/Ukraine war full of uncertainty and will enhance volatility What to expect from commodities in 2025? Keep an eye out for our 2025 predictions podcast coming to you soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, Preside…

Wheat Wheat exports increase Stocks fall Soy complex Soybean balance sheet unchanged for U.S. Global stocks still huge Corn Production down globally Stronger use for corn in the U.S. How’s ethanol demand looking? Sugar USDA raises import level: How disappointed will Mexico be? Believe it or not, the International Sweetener Colloquium is right aroun…

Market fundamentals Global markets European production issues for crops Domestic markets Latest crush report shows 10-year lows How likely are we to see sustained price relief for vegetable oils? The incoming U.S. administration spells lots of uncertainty Biofuel policy, imports, tariffs, and even TikTok Used cooking oil and its effect on soybean o…

Contracting is nearing its completion Results are a mixed bag Corn prices were not a factor Product demand assisted in price offers for 2025 Wet mill operations show little change New production at Ft. Dodge and Shenandoah U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition! What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Processes, products, pri…

Little change in total U.S. herd: Where are we sitting now? Yield or productivity per cow at the farm level How has total milk output been measured on a cumulative YTD basis through October? Missed our webinar on Wednesday? Watch now on IQ! Revisiting Systematic Timing Models: A Secret Weapon for Procurement Risk Management Not an IQ subscriber but…

Weather NOAA’s latest odds of a La Niña are declining: Will it actually arrive? Winter weather expectations may not be as threatening to crops like wheat The markets CPI sees three consecutive months of increases How much did the PPI move over the last three months? Fed Powell surprises market with hawkish comments Don’t forget to register for next…

Sugar USDA adjusts for early harvest sugar Shifts in old crop numbers Wheat Few changes for wheat, global stocks remain steady at 257 MMT Shout out to Kazakhstan with a 2 MMT increase to production! Corn & Soy Complex Both U.S. corn and soybean yields reduced (and much more for the latter). Ending stocks of soybean oil growing more ominous for 2024…

With hefty chocolate prices scaring consumers, will we see a bias for sugar-based confectionery treats? Prices at the grocery store: Chocolate candies vs. sugar, candy, and gum Retailers are promoting more aggressively to move products Will price increases continue to insulate most companies on earnings/sales? Mark your calendars for our next webin…

Weather trending more bullish by the month for wheat U.S. wheat exports up YOY, but pace is slowing Global supply tightening leading to elevated edible oils prices Geopolitical factors, election outcome, and consumer behavior are impactful unknowns for vegetable oil consumption U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition! What buyers, consum…

Energy volatility has been heightened by the ongoing events in the Middle East Disruption to the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest risk U.S. oil production reaches a new peak Could global economic slowing see WTI spend more time below $70 than above? Webinar next week! Fall Market Outlook Wednesday, October 23 Registrat…

Wheat U.S. wheat stocks decline, but still up YOY Soy complex Soybean & soybean oil balance sheets unchanged Corn See soy complex Sugar Beet sugar production up 2023/23 high-tier raised by how much? Now available for purchase! McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Vis…

The strike is off! (at least for now…) Good jobs report with some points of consideration Turmoil in the Middle East putting at least a temporary floor beneath futures prices Don’t forget to register for our next webinar Fall Market Outlook on October 23, 2024 Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com Clients check your inboxes Host/…

September stock revisions Net bullish for corn Neutral for soybeans Wheat production fell by how much? Harvested area for wheat increases, while yield falls Next webinar! Fall Market Overview Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024 Registration opens week of Oct. 7 at mckeany-flavell.com Clients check your inboxes Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: E…

Would you like cheese, butter, nuts, eggs, or frozen fruit? What makes butter inventory so key this time of the year? The key differences between butter: U.S. vs. Europe Can New Zealand step up and potentially supply product to Europe? Butter in cold storage is in decline, but what’s the whole story? Are butter prices relaxing? Let’s talk cheese in…

#11 raw sugar futures rallying, up 5 cents in last month Dryness in Brazil reducing 2025 production expectations India not expected to export sugar despite industry calls to do so Don’t forget to register for next week’s webinar! Energy Markets Update on September 25, 2024 Registration is now open! Check your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com Host…

Wheat Tame WASDE for wheat No change on the U.S. balance sheet EU production cut 4 MMT: Is it enough? Corn and soy complex Corn and soybeans are snoozers Will bearish conditions continue for now? Sugar The old crop is finalizing, while the new crop is just getting started 2023/24 sugar stocks up! 2024/25 Mexican imports lowered? U.S. Corn Wet Milli…

Acreage expectations: the case could be made for more wheat acres for 2025/26 Current conditions are not ideal and La Nina’s influence could cause issue this winter McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition All industrial buyers and consumers of corn-derived products, as well as investors in that field, should understand …

Two theories for the shape of the forward curve What is a normal forward curve? Risk-free arbitrage Over and under supplied markets Corn, soybeans, and wheat The importance of a meat thermometer this holiday weekend Now available for purchase! McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition What buyers, consumers, and investors…

Most recent changes made by USDA on milk production and herd size How have revisions USDA has made to prior numbers affected the outlook? Where we stand on YTD milk output What do dairy buyers need to be on the lookout for? Next webinar! Economy and Energy Wednesday, Sep. 25, 2024 Registration opens on Sep. 11 at mckeany-flavell.com Clients, check …

What’s the global oilseed outlook for 2024/25? How are prices trending? Coverage advice Avian flu observations Impact on feed consumption? U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition! What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Processes, products, pricing, and growth potential Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to purchase your copy tod…

Wheat Wheat acres take a big hit! Ending stocks drop but still up vs. last year Corn and soy complex Soy snatches acreage from corn brethren! But do both appear amply supplied for 2024/25? Sugar 2024/25 beet production increased to a new record Old crop and new crop sugar deliveries for food use lowered U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Ed…

Farm Bill Possible to get this passed before the November elections? Beet sugar Harvest for 2024/25 crop is upon us! Signs of a sizable crop? Cane sugar Florida crop predictions: Could it surpass Louisiana? U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition! What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Processes, products, pricing, and growth…

Dairy operators Trends in the herd What are the current conditions they’re facing? July milk production report Shedding any light? Now available for purchase! McKeany-Flavell’s U.S. Corn Wet Milling Industry Study, 2023 Edition What buyers, consumers, and investors need to know Visit us at mckeany-flavell.com to learn more Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice…

Kicking off the Olympics today with the McKeany-Flavell Global Commodity Dash! The history of the Olympic rings and the regions that each ring represents: Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and America What's topical from a macro and micro commodity perspective for each region? Production, supply, demand, economics, prices, and more Don’t forget to r…

Risk and opportunity identification State of the market Potential outside forces Create and execute a plan Measure performance Mark your calendar for our next webinar! Wheat Market Update Wednesday, July 31 Registration opens July 17, watch your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Direct…

Sugar 2023/24 ending stocks increased Beet sugar increased for both old and new crop Wheat USDA blew away expectations with big increases to wheat production Wheat ending stocks now largest since 2019/20 Global stocks rise, but not likely to hold Corn Feed category providing its usual late-season surprise for corn Soy complex Global soybean balance…

How have consumers been handling food inflation? What might food manufacturers do to respond? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? Mark your calendar for our next webinar! Wheat Market Update Wednesday, July 31 Registration opens July 17, watch your email or visit mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thom…

Corn steals the show with an increase in acres! What’s the number? Higher corn acreage pencils stocks-to-use in at over 15% Did corn producers take advantage of the June seasonal rally? March to June stocks change suggests they did not Farmers still have full grain bins What does that mean for any price rallies? Soybean acres take a hit How does th…

Update on the U.S. winter wheat harvest and spring wheat conditions Russia’s crop bigger than expected? U.S. exports are strong Up 25% YOY Don’t forget to register for our next webinar! Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024 Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric T…

Will Brazilian sugar share surpass 50% this year? Is world market becoming too reliant on Brazil? Upcoming monsoonal rainfall key to production in India and Thailand Our next webinar is coming up! Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024 Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Exp…

June WASDE is the “appetizer before the entrée” No major changes All eyes on the Jun. 28 Acreage report Wheat U.S. wheat exports on the rise as Black Sea output falls Corn / Soy Complex No changes to U.S. corn Small true-ups in soy complex Sugar Current crop beet sugar production lowered High-tier imports increased for current and new crop Mexico e…

Weather’s been good, but you never know! Biofuel production to grow in 2024/25 No exports? Not just yet… Don’t forget to register for our next webinar! Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024 Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President –…

Will Mexico imports reach 650,000 MT? June is the start of the rainy season, but will we get any rain this summer? The 2024/25 production forecast How does this affect HFCS heading to Mexico? Our next webinar: Summer Market Outlook on June 26, 2024 Look for your email invite or register directly at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, Presid…

Weather has improved! What does that mean for the tail end of the mid-crop and pod setting for next year’s main crop? Cocoa bean arrivals continue to lag, but have they been under reported? Why have Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) suspended operations for 40 coops? Mark your calendar for our next webinar! Summer Market Outlook webinar Wednesday, Jun…

PPI: inflation is too hot! CPI: is inflation cooling too fast? Jobs growth slowed markedly What’s unemployment doing? What to expect for future inflation after bottoming in December Market's rate cut expectations holding steady this week, but is this counter to the Fed’s own statements? Next webinar is on Wednesday! Dairy Market Update on Wednesday…

Well attended event put on by the National Confectioners Association Lots of sour going on! Freeze-dried candy: What was Mike’s favorite? Talk from all of the chocolate companies Switching from chocolate to compound? Using less amount on the product? And the winner of this year’s Candy Industry Kettle Award goes to… Our next webinar: Dairy Market U…

Wheat New crop 2024/25 U.S. wheat largely as expected Global stocks remain at a deficit Will it struggle to hit USDA’s estimate? Corn Global balance sheet seemingly growing more portentous? Baby steps! Soy complex U.S. soybean, soybean oil picture for 2024/25 suggests loosening stocks scenario A quick note on soybean meal Sugar Not many supply-side…