The Fed's Rate Cut Dilemma: 2023 Or 2024? FX Talk

22:45

The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook? Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, investors are skeptical that the negotiations will lead to anything more than a temporary pause in the conflict, which is acting to keep the rally in risk in check. Our analysts discuss all the latest developments and more in the latest episode of FX Talk. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

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Trump’s tariffs trigger frantic currency trading 28:06

24天之前28:06

28:06

Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour. But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff threats merely a negotiating ploy? And how could markets react to the imposition of trade restrictions on the European Union? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
100th Episode Special: A trip down memory lane, and tips for novice investors 32:10

5 weeks之前32:10

32:10

Ton-up! FX Talk has reached a century of episodes! In this special podcast recording, we take a trip down memory lane and discuss some of the most memorable moments from our time covering financial markets. From the panic caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis, to the Brexit vote, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. Our analysts also shed some light on how they began following markets, while discussing some of the aspects that they enjoy the most about their current roles. We also provide some advice and tips to notice investors that are looking to gain a better understanding of currency markets. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
2025 Global Market Outlook: Trumponomics 2.0 and beyond 29:23

7 weeks之前29:23

29:23

2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown. But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for investors this year? How could the global economy perform, and which currencies do we think will under- and outperform in 2025? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
2024 in FX: A Year in Review 20:46

10 weeks之前20:46

20:46

2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we’ve seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker. Our analysts give their thoughts on the main developments in markets this year, while also discussing the December policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
French political turmoil and its impact on ECB policy 18:08

12 weeks之前18:08

18:08

The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration. The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outlook for the common currency, following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. But, what does this political wrangling mean for the European Central Bank? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
Trump wins historic US election: What it means for FX 22:19

16 weeks之前22:19

22:19

Donald Trump has once again outperformed the polls and romped home to a comfortable victory in the US presidential election. Markets were bracing for a knife-edge vote but, in reality, it was anything but, with Trump set to win in all seven battleground states once the final results are confirmed. The US dollar soared across the board, posting its largest one-day rally since the Brexit vote in 2016. But, what does the election mean for the US and global economies? And what do our analysts make of the reaction thus far in the FX market? Listen to our US election special to find out more! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

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A US election special: How could the vote impact FX? 22:32

18 weeks之前22:32

22:32

November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone. But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the US dollar and emerging market currencies? Our analysts give their thoughts on these questions and more in this US election special. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
How rising Middle East tensions could impact currency markets 20:51

20 weeks之前20:51

20:51

The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts. In this week’s episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from some surprisingly dovish comments from governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
Fed stuns markets with bumper 50 basis point rate cut 23:33

22 weeks之前23:33

23:33

The Federal Reserve surprised markets last week, delivering a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut. Yet, the bank’s famous ‘dot plot’ of interest rate projections was moderately more hawkish than expected, which limited the downside in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates steady, emphasising again that additional cuts are likely to be gradual. This has helped propel the pound to its strongest position since the Brexit vote in trade-weighted terms. The euro has lagged behind its UK counterpart, particularly following the collapse in this week’s Euro Area PMI figures. Does this point to another period of stagnation ahead, and could the data force the ECB to deliver back-to-back cuts? Our analysts give their thoughts in this week’s FX Talk episode. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
Dollar struggles amid US economic slowdown fears 24:35

25 weeks之前24:35

24:35

The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country’s labour market. In this week’s FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified. They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading in financial markets. This includes breaking down the possible implications of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Federal Reserve interest rates, while discussing the potential impact of the upcoming Harris-Trump televised debate on currency markets. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
Bank of England cuts rates, but what does this mean for sterling? 21:22

30 weeks之前21:22

21:22

The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September, which now appears set in stone. The Bank of Japan also hiked interest rates this week, but what does this mean for the global FX carry trade? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
What Trump assassination attempt means for US election and the dollar 24:45

32 weeks之前24:45

24:45

The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report. But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve now set in stone? And what could a Trump election victory mean for markets? We answer these questions, and provide our thoughts on the stellar performance in the pound, which remains the best performing major currency in the world in 2024. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
French election uncertainty grips currency markets 25:50

37 weeks之前25:50

25:50

Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter, and discuss what kind of impact the vote could have on the euro, which has underperformed its peers since the election was called. We also discuss the fallout from the June meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. When will the FOMC pull the trigger on lower US rates? And will the ECB deliver one or two additional cuts in 2024? Tune in to hear our thoughts! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!…

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

1
The year of elections - What this means for the currency market 20:20

44 weeks之前20:20