#219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal?

The Julia La Roche Show

#Trading #Business #Julia La Roche

27:28

Chris Nowinski is a former football player at Harvard University and professional wrestler with WWE, World Wrestling Entertainment. After enduring a career-ending head injury, Chris has dedicated his professional life to serving patients and families affected by brain trauma, particularly Chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, a progressive neurodegenerative disease that develops after repeated head injuries. Jay and Chris discuss the state of head injuries in American athletics, the difference between advocating for head safety at youth and professional levels, Chris’ newest research, and much more. Episode Chapters (00:00) Intro (00:50) changes in the culture around concussions in the past two decades (02:39) padded helmet technology (03:55) concussion reporting in the NFL (10:35) Chris’ career path and concussion history (14:52) connecting with activists who haven’t themselves suffered a traumatic brain injury (17:42) SHAAKE - a new sign to identify concussions (20:53) Unions can help players advocate for safety policies (23:10) final thoughts and goodbye For video episodes, watch on www.youtube.com/@therudermanfamilyfoundation Stay in touch: X: @JayRuderman | @RudermanFdn LinkedIn: Jay Ruderman | Ruderman Family Foundation Instagram: All About Change Podcast | Ruderman Family Foundation To learn more about the podcast, visit https://allaboutchangepodcast.com/…

大约1年之前 1:04:49

MP3•单集首页

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.

Links:

DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

241集单集

#219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal?

The Julia La Roche Show

18 subscribers

published 大约1年之前

MP3•单集首页

Links:

Timestamps:

00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey

00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis

04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles

06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy

07:13 Role of technological innovation

11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation

14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential

16:09 Post-election growth outlook

24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges

28:16 Social Security sustainability issues

32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion

40:11 Impact of technological innovations

45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique

50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy

54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions

59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

241集单集

#Trading #Business #Julia La Roche

All episodes

1
#240 Michael Howell: 'We're in a Liquidity Air Pocket' as Hidden Stimulus Fades 52:47

大约16小时之前52:47

52:47

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche Show where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead. Howell explains we're entering an "air pocket" in global liquidity despite the overall upward trend that began in October 2022. He examines the "hidden stimulus" from Yellen and Powell that's now fading, details why the US Treasury's bill-heavy financing strategy exposes government funding to interest rate risk, and discusses a theory about Trump potentially revaluing US gold reserves to generate a $1.25 trillion windfall. For investors facing 2025's "much more uncertain year," Howell advises caution and suggests that real assets—particularly gold—may outperfor Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell 01:25 - Current state of the global liquidity cycle and the emerging "air pocket" 03:50 - The hidden stimulus from Fed and Treasury that's now fading 06:16 - How bill-focused Treasury financing is effectively "monetizing the deficit" 11:04 - China's central bank actions and their global economic impact 15:54 - Signs of a potential Chinese policy shift toward economic growth 18:35 - Parallels between Trump and Nixon's economic approaches 21:37 - Asset allocation recommendations based on market regimes 26:58 - Analysis of where we are in the liquidity cycle and future projections 31:49 - Why China needs to devalue against gold and implications for US policy 37:49 - The growing global debt burden and limited options for resolution 43:43 - Why the Fed must expand its balance sheet by mid-2025 48:48 - Tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than an end goal 50:39 - Final advice: investors should consider adding resources/gold to portfolios as protection during uncertain times…

1
#239 Jeff Snider: The 'Recovery' Was Artificial - We Never Left the Last Recession 50:08

3天之前50:08

50:08

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Snider explains why we never actually left the 2020 recession - the apparent recovery was an illusion created by Fed rate cuts, election optimism, and front-loaded economic activity. The U.S. economy remains 5 million jobs short of a real recovery, with consumers feeling left behind as their purchasing power eroded. Snider warns of growing risks in China's banking system and argues that continued government intervention is making economic problems worse. He breaks down why the bond market has been signaling weakness since 2022 while stocks remain detached from fundamentals, and explains how the Eurodollar system connects global markets in ways most analysts miss. Jeff Snider is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (⁠ https://www.eurodollar.university/⁠ ) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. Links: X https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity 0:00 Introduction of Jeff Snider 0:54 Big picture macro view and recent market shift 2:14 Analysis of "artificial" economic factors 4:37 Consumer sentiment declining and job market concerns 5:40 Disconnect between economic data and real conditions 7:52 Missing context in economic recovery data 9:30 Housing market distortions and government intervention 11:52 Long-term consequences of pandemic policy 13:13 Discussion of growth scare vs. true recession 15:48 Market behaviors and bond market signals 19:18 Fed policy outlook and rate direction 22:30 Potential economic scenarios ahead 25:33 Challenges for investors in current environment 28:25 Base case economic outlook 31:14 Biggest risk and potential for financial shocks 34:48 Global interconnectedness and reserve currency effects 37:22 Path to positive outcome and economic reset 42:30 Problems with government intervention 45:08 Information about Eurodollar University 47:29 Closing thoughts on economic reality…

1
#238 Larry McDonald: Why Trump Needs a Recession to Fix the Economy 34:56

4天之前34:56

34:56

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. McDonald explains why we're facing an engineered economic slowdown as the new administration tackles persistent inflation and massive debt issues. McDonald reveals how the top 10% now drives 60% of consumption, why hard assets like copper will outperform technology in our new stagflationary environment, and how "financial repression" may be the only viable strategy to manage our $37 trillion debt burden. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 0:00 Introduction and welcome 1:25 Overview of fiscal stimulus and inflationary forces 3:50 Top 10% of consumers responsible for 60% of consumption 7:16 Treasury debt strategy and need to get rates down 9:16 Discussion of engineering recession to kill inflation 13:39 Market signals pointing to recession risk 15:42 Copper as a contrarian investment opportunity 19:50 Effects of job reshoring and war rebuilds on inflation 22:15 Hard assets outperforming in stagflationary environment 25:05 Issues with rapidly cutting government spending 26:38 New portfolio construction for inflationary regime 29:08 Bear Traps Report approach and financial repression strategy…

1
#237 Dr. Judy Shelton: We're at a Monetary Crossroads, It's Time to Audit the Fed, and Demand Sound Money 33:30

7天之前33:30

33:30

Dr. Judy Shelton, senior fellow at the Independent Institute and author of "Good as Gold: How To Unleash The Power of Sound Money," explains why the U.S. stands at a monetary crossroads requiring fundamental reform. She critiques the Federal Reserve's practice of paying banks billions not to lend, the distortionary effects of currency manipulation in international trade, and the moral implications of a 2% inflation target that systematically erodes savings. Shelton argues for auditing the Fed, restoring accountability, and considering gold-linked bonds as a path toward sound money, which she describes as a foundational element of economic liberty consistent with America's founding principles. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Book: https://www.independent.org/store/book.asp?id=143 X: https://x.com/judyshel 0:00 Introduction of Dr. Judy Shelton1:01 Overview of monetary crossroads and need for reform4:23 Discussion of needed monetary reforms and Fed critique6:36 Analysis of Fed's interest rate mechanism8:58 Explanation of Fed payments to financial institutions11:25 International monetary impacts and currency distortions13:34 Sound money as moral contract and possibility16:31 Historical support for gold standard from past presidents19:56 Critique of Fed's 2% inflation target22:09 Question about Fed serving public interest25:03 Central bank accountability issues27:51 Gold-linked bonds proposal30:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work…

1
#236 Bob Elliott: 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' as Negative Growth Surprise Ahead 34:41

11天之前34:41

34:41

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 236. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Elliott shares why the economy faces a likely growth disappointment in 2025. He explains how both Fed policy and the new administration's focus on restricting immigration, cutting deficits, and increasing tariffs look less positive than expected. Elliott points to extremely high growth expectations priced into both stocks and bonds, while noting professional investors are showing the lowest conviction levels in nearly a decade amid policy uncertainty. Links: X: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/ 0:00 Introduction and welcome back 1:02 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" market outlook 2:50 Analysis of Fed policy and fiscal expectations 4:39 Discussion of inflation and tariff impacts 6:19 Growth expectations vs reality 7:36 Key risks for 2025 9:27 Bond yields and stock market valuations 14:12 Consumer sentiment and partisan impacts 16:38 Tech bubble comparisons and market setup 17:19 MAG-7 vs broader market earnings expectations 19:39 Fund manager positioning and low conviction levels 23:09 Retail vs professional investor positioning 25:52 Concerns about market timing and catalysts 28:37 Gold analysis and Eastern demand 31:46 Closing remarks and contact information…

1
#235 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Disinflation Signs, Job Market Stress, and More Rate Cuts Than Expected 34:44

15天之前34:44

34:44

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact 2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity 3:50 MBS rolloff implications 5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies 8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings 9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook 11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics 13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs 15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores 16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season 19:49 Senior housing opportunities 20:50 White collar recession analysis 23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal 26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation 27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis 32:01 Closing remarks…

1
#234 Bill Fleckenstein: 'Doing Less Rather Than More' as Markets Enter Honeymoon Period | Gold's Strange Strength, Government Waste, and the Passive Bid Risk 46:02

17天之前46:02

46:02

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 234 to discuss markets in 2025. He explains why he's waiting to see how new government initiatives play out before taking strong market positions, while maintaining significant precious metals exposure. Fleckenstein emphasizes that the passive bid remains "the elephant in the room" in markets, warns about government waste revelations, and explains why gold continues to show unexpected strength. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ 0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:47 Big picture macro view and bond market analysis 7:17 Discussion of Social Security numbers and potential fraud 8:10 Market assessment and passive investing dynamics 9:40 Gold market analysis and central bank buying 15:01 Analysis of gold revaluation proposals 16:40 Debt discussion and DOGE initiatives 21:44 Bond market dynamics and 30-40 year cycles 24:16 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts 26:07 Economic impact of government workforce changes 28:26 Silver market outlook 31:00 Passive bid impact on markets 34:03 Dollar outlook and Japanese yen analysis 36:02 Concerns about government agency revelations 39:05 Warning to younger investors about passive investing 41:00 Discussion of market structure vs traditional bubbles 44:42 Closing remarks and contact information…

1
#233 Michael Pento: The Great Asset Bubble Reckoning is Coming, Why We Could See A 50% Correction 37:34

21天之前37:34

37:34

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 233 where he delivers a stark warning about the state of financial markets. Pento challenges Fed Chair Powell's recent victory lap on inflation, pointing out that prices have remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly four years. He outlines his thesis for what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit markets, explaining why these interconnected asset bubbles could lead to a market correction of at least 50%. Drawing on his 34 years of experience and proprietary 20-point liquidity model, Pento provides detailed evidence for his concerns while sharing insights on portfolio positioning, the impact of Trump 2.0, and potential solutions to America's mounting debt crisis. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Intro and welcome Michael 0:43 Powell's congressional testimony & inflation criticism 3:02 Fed's $5T post-COVID liquidity & reverse repo facility 6:43 Warning of market bubbles 7:28 Evidence of equity bubble (Market cap to GDP, price to sales) 10:27 Credit bubble & private credit markets 11:24 Liquidity draining from system 13:08 Trump 2.0 impact on markets 14:37 Analyzing market liquidity (20-point model) 18:21 Future recession & $6T deficit concerns 19:41 Potential silver lining: Market reset 21:10 Fed's rate cut dilemma 23:10 Treasury gold revaluation discussion 25:56 Solutions to US debt crisis 28:44 Current portfolio strategy 31:51 Critique of passive investment industry 35:00 Closing thoughts & contact information…

1
#232 Ed Dowd: Why The Next Recession Is Different — The Coming Economic Reset in 2025 56:50

29天之前56:50

56:50

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class. This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden 03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class 05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse 07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration 09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds 11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower 13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn 15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer 16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues 18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility 20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar 23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data 26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment 29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns 32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash 35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession 38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market 41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles 43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction 45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator 46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis 49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues 51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age" 53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details…

1
#231 Chris Whalen: Fed 'Playing Chicken' with Liquidity as High Debt Levels Persist, Balance Sheet Shrinks 32:24

大约1年之前32:24

32:24

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs 03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much 04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves 06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy 08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates 09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity 12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels 13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills 15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon 17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID 18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration 19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits 21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues 22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels 24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28 25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra 27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling 29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety 31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging…

1
#230 Danielle DiMartino Booth On Labor Market Cracks, Recession Signals, and Why We'll Likely See A March Rate Cut 54:13

大约1年之前54:13

54:13

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work…

1
#229 David Woo: DeepSeek's Massive Macro Implications, Trump 2.0 Challenges, and Top Trade Ideas 1:13:58

大约1年之前1:13:58

1:13:58

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security. In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations. In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas: The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion 0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion Part 2 12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts…

1
#228 Steve Hanke: 'It's Going To Be A Year Of Investing Dangerously' — Bubble Detector At Highest Levels 36:20

大约1年之前36:20

36:20

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0 Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money 03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation 07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome 10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks 13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes 15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration 17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies 20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans 23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets 26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard 30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake 32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth 33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax 35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work…

1
#227 Ted Oakley: Almost Everybody is Complacent Right Now 52:13

大约1年之前52:13

52:13

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing. With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates 04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration 06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt 09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals 11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks 15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets 19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics 22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing 25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks 28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation 31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma 34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem 37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts 39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks 42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth 46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth 49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity…

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#226 Rick Rule: Rick Rule: "I Am Cautious" - Holding Cash For The Coming Squeeze 52:22

大约1年之前52:22