“What o3 Becomes by 2028” by Vladimir_Nesov

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

Funding for $150bn training systems just turned less speculative, with OpenAI o3 reaching 25% on FrontierMath, 70% on SWE-Verified, 2700 on Codeforces, and 80% on ARC-AGI. These systems will be built in 2026-2027 and enable pretraining models for 5e28 FLOPs, while o3 itself is plausibly based on an LLM pretrained only for 8e25-4e26 FLOPs. The natural text data wall won't seriously interfere until 6e27 FLOPs, and might be possible to push until 5e28 FLOPs. Scaling of pretraining won't end just yet.
Reign of GPT-4
Since the release of GPT-4 in March 2023, subjectively there was no qualitative change in frontier capabilities. In 2024, everyone in the running merely caught up. To the extent this is true, the reason might be that the original GPT-4 was probably a 2e25 FLOPs MoE model trained on 20K A100. And if you don't already have a cluster this big, and experience [...]
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Outline:
(00:52) Reign of GPT-4
(02:08) Engines of Scaling
(04:06) Two More Turns of the Crank
(06:41) Peak Data
The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
December 22nd, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NXTkEiaLA4JdS5vSZ/what-o3-becomes-by-2028
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.