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Is The Housing Correction Over In Canada?
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Manage episode 370665718 series 2987371
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Joel and Cam debate Threads vs. Twitter
* Market Update
* The problem F1 is having with its fair weather fan base.
* Recommendations and must listens
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
📈📊Market Update💵📉
What a first half of the year.
The market has ripped into the summer and we’ve seen meaningful upside resolution from the S&P500. But the rest of the world hasn’t kept up. In DataTreks most recent newsletter, they talked about the lagging ROW(rest of world).
from their free report:
The theme of today’s Story Time Thursday is “the invisible becomes visible”. The first example is real interest rates, which for many years were zero or negative. Now they are high and rising, lifting 10-year yields and corporate cost of/access to capital. The second example is investors’ expectations for US/global equity returns. Q2’s sluggish rest of world equity performance is a good reminder that non-US stocks have a disappointing long term track record, most probably due to a fundamental lack of shareholder value creation. This will not likely change soon.
Data: Today’s JOLTS report showed US job openings fell back below 10 mn in May, but they still outnumbered unemployed workers by 1.6x versus 1.2x in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Our “Take this job and shove it” indicator (quits/total separations) rose to 68.4 pct versus 60.4 pct in Feb 2020. Workers remain confident in finding better paying jobs, while employers are still reluctant to let employees go given an ongoing labor shortage/still decent economy. Today’s JOLTS report and strong ADP jobs print show why Chair Powell continues to signal additional rate hikes this year.
Disruption: 1: Today’s Initial Claims report was broadly in line with expectations (unlike ADP). Claims are slowly moving higher as the year progresses, a trend we expect to continue.
2: Two-year Treasury yields briefly broke out to new post-Pandemic Era highs this morning but closed lower than that key level. Stocks responded in near lock step. We continue to believe 2-years above 5 percent put a bit of a damper on stocks over the near term.
Threads vs. Twitter:
It’s a completely different social graph and there’s two ways to look at it:
“𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 won’t work because it doesn’t allow you to import your Twitter followers”
Let me invert that statement for you:
How many of your non-Twitter friends would become activated on Twitter if they could import their 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 social graph?
Zuck is incredibly good at throwing his weight behind something at the precise moment his products begin to lose relevancy.
He never misses the next train.
Only Elon could have made all this happen. He has been the most charitable tech person of 2022 and 2023 by paying out ex-Twitter employees that he despises top dollars for their Twitter shares last year and now juicing the stock of his competitor Face/Insta/Metabook shares to $300 by destroying his own shareholder’s value at Twitter. Bravo.
While people dismiss the idea of ‘Threads’ because it is Zuckerberg and data evil, as Fred Wilson (a seed investor in Twitter who has stopped using Twitter) says in his post today
Threads is about two really important things:
1/ Competition for Twitter. Long overdue and badly needed.
2/ The emergence of a widely supported social media protocol. Which should produce a vibrant and interoperable social media ecosystem.
* Top 10 stocks so far in 2023
🎙Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* The Future of Ai with LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman
Topics: what percentage of the American population will eschew it, how gaming will evolve, whether AI’s future will be open-source or proprietary, the binding constraint preventing the next big step in AI, which philosopher has risen in importance thanks to AI, what he’d ask a dolphin, what LLMs have taught him about friendship, how higher education will change, and more. They also discuss Sam Altman’s overlooked skill, the biggest cultural problem in America, the most underrated tech scene, and what he’ll do next.
* Noam Chompsky On World Of Politics and Liberalism
🔮Best Links of The Week🔮
* Why Starlink is such a big deal. - Source: Casey Handmer
* Student loan debt in America is about to reemerge as a major problem for their politicians and pocketbooks. Starting September 1st, people with debt will have to restart their monthly payments. - Source: Payitoff
* Portfolio Nuclear. - Source: The Gregor Letter
* AI: Building Value over Time via Tech Stacks, Staircases and Loops. - Source: AI A Reset To Zero
* "Private sector jobs surged by 497,000 in June, well ahead of the 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 estimate. Leisure and hospitality led with 232,000 new hires, followed by construction with 97,000, and trade, transportation and utilities at 90,000. The unexpected jump in payrolls comes despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases." Source: CNBC
* "Meta said more than 30mn people had signed up to its long-awaited competitor to Twitter in what chief executive Mark Zuckerberg pitched as a “friendly” alternative to the struggling social media platform owned by Elon Musk." Source: FT
"Electric-vehicle sales in the U.S. surged by 50% in the first half of the year, although the pace of growth slowed amid a buildup of unsold EV inventory at dealerships. For the first half of 2023, automakers sold 557,330 electric vehicles with the growth rate far eclipsing that of conventional cars, according to data released Thursday by research firm Motor Intelligence. Sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles grew about 10% in the period. EVs are a small but rapidly expanding part of the new-vehicle market, accounting for 7.2% of overall sales in the January-to-June period, up from 5.4% a year earlier." Source: WSJ
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com
63集单集
Fetch error
Hmmm there seems to be a problem fetching this series right now. Last successful fetch was on December 26, 2024 20:32 (
What now? This series will be checked again in the next day. If you believe it should be working, please verify the publisher's feed link below is valid and includes actual episode links. You can contact support to request the feed be immediately fetched.
Manage episode 370665718 series 2987371
Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
* Joel and Cam debate Threads vs. Twitter
* Market Update
* The problem F1 is having with its fair weather fan base.
* Recommendations and must listens
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
📈📊Market Update💵📉
What a first half of the year.
The market has ripped into the summer and we’ve seen meaningful upside resolution from the S&P500. But the rest of the world hasn’t kept up. In DataTreks most recent newsletter, they talked about the lagging ROW(rest of world).
from their free report:
The theme of today’s Story Time Thursday is “the invisible becomes visible”. The first example is real interest rates, which for many years were zero or negative. Now they are high and rising, lifting 10-year yields and corporate cost of/access to capital. The second example is investors’ expectations for US/global equity returns. Q2’s sluggish rest of world equity performance is a good reminder that non-US stocks have a disappointing long term track record, most probably due to a fundamental lack of shareholder value creation. This will not likely change soon.
Data: Today’s JOLTS report showed US job openings fell back below 10 mn in May, but they still outnumbered unemployed workers by 1.6x versus 1.2x in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Our “Take this job and shove it” indicator (quits/total separations) rose to 68.4 pct versus 60.4 pct in Feb 2020. Workers remain confident in finding better paying jobs, while employers are still reluctant to let employees go given an ongoing labor shortage/still decent economy. Today’s JOLTS report and strong ADP jobs print show why Chair Powell continues to signal additional rate hikes this year.
Disruption: 1: Today’s Initial Claims report was broadly in line with expectations (unlike ADP). Claims are slowly moving higher as the year progresses, a trend we expect to continue.
2: Two-year Treasury yields briefly broke out to new post-Pandemic Era highs this morning but closed lower than that key level. Stocks responded in near lock step. We continue to believe 2-years above 5 percent put a bit of a damper on stocks over the near term.
Threads vs. Twitter:
It’s a completely different social graph and there’s two ways to look at it:
“𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 won’t work because it doesn’t allow you to import your Twitter followers”
Let me invert that statement for you:
How many of your non-Twitter friends would become activated on Twitter if they could import their 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 social graph?
Zuck is incredibly good at throwing his weight behind something at the precise moment his products begin to lose relevancy.
He never misses the next train.
Only Elon could have made all this happen. He has been the most charitable tech person of 2022 and 2023 by paying out ex-Twitter employees that he despises top dollars for their Twitter shares last year and now juicing the stock of his competitor Face/Insta/Metabook shares to $300 by destroying his own shareholder’s value at Twitter. Bravo.
While people dismiss the idea of ‘Threads’ because it is Zuckerberg and data evil, as Fred Wilson (a seed investor in Twitter who has stopped using Twitter) says in his post today
Threads is about two really important things:
1/ Competition for Twitter. Long overdue and badly needed.
2/ The emergence of a widely supported social media protocol. Which should produce a vibrant and interoperable social media ecosystem.
* Top 10 stocks so far in 2023
🎙Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
* The Future of Ai with LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman
Topics: what percentage of the American population will eschew it, how gaming will evolve, whether AI’s future will be open-source or proprietary, the binding constraint preventing the next big step in AI, which philosopher has risen in importance thanks to AI, what he’d ask a dolphin, what LLMs have taught him about friendship, how higher education will change, and more. They also discuss Sam Altman’s overlooked skill, the biggest cultural problem in America, the most underrated tech scene, and what he’ll do next.
* Noam Chompsky On World Of Politics and Liberalism
🔮Best Links of The Week🔮
* Why Starlink is such a big deal. - Source: Casey Handmer
* Student loan debt in America is about to reemerge as a major problem for their politicians and pocketbooks. Starting September 1st, people with debt will have to restart their monthly payments. - Source: Payitoff
* Portfolio Nuclear. - Source: The Gregor Letter
* AI: Building Value over Time via Tech Stacks, Staircases and Loops. - Source: AI A Reset To Zero
* "Private sector jobs surged by 497,000 in June, well ahead of the 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 estimate. Leisure and hospitality led with 232,000 new hires, followed by construction with 97,000, and trade, transportation and utilities at 90,000. The unexpected jump in payrolls comes despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases." Source: CNBC
* "Meta said more than 30mn people had signed up to its long-awaited competitor to Twitter in what chief executive Mark Zuckerberg pitched as a “friendly” alternative to the struggling social media platform owned by Elon Musk." Source: FT
"Electric-vehicle sales in the U.S. surged by 50% in the first half of the year, although the pace of growth slowed amid a buildup of unsold EV inventory at dealerships. For the first half of 2023, automakers sold 557,330 electric vehicles with the growth rate far eclipsing that of conventional cars, according to data released Thursday by research firm Motor Intelligence. Sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles grew about 10% in the period. EVs are a small but rapidly expanding part of the new-vehicle market, accounting for 7.2% of overall sales in the January-to-June period, up from 5.4% a year earlier." Source: WSJ
Disclaimer:
Investing in equities, fixed-income instruments and/or alternative asset classes involves substantial risk of loss. Any action you may take as a result of the information presented on this website, blog or in any Reformed Millennials Podcast (a “podcast”) is your own responsibility. By opening this page and/or listening to a podcast, you accept and agree to the terms of this full legal disclaimer. The information on this website, blog and in any podcast is presented as a general educational, informational and entertainment resource only. While Joel Shackleton is registered to provide investment advice as an Advising Representative this website, blog and any podcast does not provide, and should not be construed as providing, individualized investment, tax or insurance advice, nor as containing any recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities or otherwise make any other form of investment, or take any tax or insurance decision. Nothing contained on this website, blog or in any podcast should be construed or interpreted by you to mean that an investment in any securities presented or discussed would be suitable for you in your particular circumstances. Joel Shackleton specifically disclaim that any viewer of this website, blog or any podcast should rely in any way on any of their contents as investment, tax or insurance advice or as an investment, insurance or tax recommendation. Viewers are encouraged to consult with their individual investment advisor and other financial professionals prior to taking any potential investment actions or making any insurance or tax decisions. The views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views and opinions of Joel Shackleton and any other specific contributor to the blog or podcast only and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of their Firm or any of its other registered individuals or employees in partnership with Joel and his guests. Joel Shackleton disclaims any obligation to update any of the information set out on this website or any blog or podcast going-forward.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit reformedmillennials.substack.com
63集单集
所有剧集
×1 Good Good Is Bigger Than LIV Golf, Canadian Trade Relations and Where The Market Is Headed In Q1 46:27
1 Soft Launching Hit Singles Using Social Media, Amazon Bails Out Regional Sports Networks and The Next Stage In Markets 54:49
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