The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Part 2 : Wargaming Regional Conflicts

The Red Line

As part of our wider project examining the armed forces of Central Asia, the research team sat down with experts from government, military, and academia. We brought together all of our findings and research and wargamed some of the region's most likely and plausible scenarios, not because we think war between these states is imminent, but because it is a useful way to gain better insights into how these militaries function and the challenges they would face. The format highlighted several key issues, including drivers such as the impact of lacking sufficient field trucks, unequal aerial capabilities, or the geography of the country forcing invading forces into a single narrow pocket, each of which severely limits the options available to any invading force.

Across all of our wargames, we selected three of the most interesting scenarios to examine here on The Red Line, exploring three key regional conflicts, the most likely triggers for those conflicts, and how prepared each of these states are for war against a peer rival. To guide us through the findings and their implications for defence dynamics in Central Asia, we are joined by this week's special guest for part two of our mini-series, The Armed Forces of Central Asia.

On the panel this week:

• Derek Bisaccio (Forecast International)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:57

PART II - 1:02:23

PART III - 1:45:30

Outro - 2:10:09

Read the Tajikistan Chapter of the Report here: https://oxussociety.org/projects/the-armed-forces-of-central-asia/

Check out the mapping project here: https://oxussociety.org/viz/military-units/

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